International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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CDDRL Visiting Scholar, Summer 2024
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Belgin San-Akca is an Associate Professor of International Relations at Koç University, Istanbul, and an Associate Editor of Foreign Policy Analysis. She is a recipient of the Marie Curie Reintegration Grant for her research on cooperation between states and nonstate armed groups. Her book, States in Disguise, was published by Oxford University Press in 2016. Recently, she has been working on energy security and proxy war, as well as the spread of state-level norms to non-state armed groups. Her latest book, The Pursuit of Energy Security in an Insecure World, is under contract with Oxford University Press.

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This memo examines how conservative attitudes toward Russia have evolved in the United States from 2000 to the present. Through an analysis of political rhetoric, media coverage, and public opinion data, we trace key inflection points and factors contributing to these shifts, including the 2016 US presidential election, ideological and strategic alignment between Trump and Putin, America first isolationism, and Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine. We find that conservative views on Russia have undergone significant changes, transitioning from viewing Russia as a geopolitical threat in the early 2000s to a more favorable stance during the Trump presidency, followed by a fracture between traditionalist and pro-Trump wings of the Republican Party after 2020. The memo concludes by discussing the domestic and foreign policy implications of these attitudinal shifts.

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Dana Adibifar
Michael Alisky
Peter Alisky
Ivan Ivoylov
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This paper starts with a comparison between the Russian policies toward the occupied Donbas regions and the Russian administration of the colonized Ukrainian lands in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Then, we describe how these policies affected the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk Popular Republics and the position of the indigenous population in the newly established colonial framework. Finally, we describe how the  Russian government uses the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk Popular Republics as sources of ideological resources to maintain the dictatorial regime of Vladimir Putin.

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Adrian Feinberg
Anna Harvey
Lev Pushel
Thomas Sternfels
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This paper investigates the critical role of private satellite constellations, particularly Starlink, in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. It delves into how these systems are employed for intelligence gathering, communications, and logistical support, emphasizing their strategic importance in modern warfare. The research contributes to the discourse on the militarization of space assets, providing a nuanced understanding of the intersections between technology, ethics, and warfare.

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Hayden Fite
Rebecca Wang
Mikhail Zinovyev
Sergey Clado
Luv Jawahrani
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As the third year of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s war of aggression is now well underway, military victories and defeats in Ukraine’s counter-offensives have served as a primary lens through which Western audiences have understood Russia’s will to continue prosecuting its illegal war. As the Kremlin’s blatant power grab offended the consciences of millions the world over, a means for the West to compel an end to Putin’s war besides military intervention proved necessary. Within short order, various NATO-aligned states led largely by the United States and European Union unveiled one of the most comprehensive and draconian sanctions packages in history.

Much less visible than the progress of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield has been the impact of halted trade on Russia’s fiscal-military state and military-industrial capabilities. Moreover, it remains to be seen if financial disincentives can persuade Putin and his inner circle to change course, or if the Russian Federation’s strongman leader is persuaded by sheer military force alone.

This Stanford-US-Russia Forum (SURF) memorandum seeks to investigate the efficacy of Western-led sanctions regimes against the Russian Federation. We begin our inquiry with an overview of sanctions implemented after the start of the full-scale invasion and how these complemented existing sanctions responding to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. We next consider the impacts of economic sanctions on various interests of Russian industries and citizens in and outside of Russia. This paper next turns to various tactical and strategic shortcomings of historic Western sanctions strategies. Lastly, we seek to provide policy recommendations outside of those already recommended by the McFaul-Yermak sanctions working group.

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William Pirone
Grant Thieroff
Anna Siamionava
Anna Ulyanova
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A burgeoning literature considers the domestic causes and consequences of democratic backsliding for public perceptions of democracy but has yet to fully examine the role of international factors in explaining these perceptions. Specifically, the effect of democratic backsliding in one democracy on public support for democratic principles in other countries has, thus far, defied theoretical and empirical investigation. Addressing this gap, we propose and test a theory of the effects of backsliding on global opinion in which information about democratic decline in one country can lead to increased support for authoritarian governance in another country. To test this, we use an original survey experiment in Israel where we test the effect of two narratives regarding the 2020 U.S. elections—one signaling democratic decline and one signaling democratic resilience—on support for authoritarian governance. We find that respondents exposed to the narrative of U.S. democratic decline were more supportive of authoritarian governance compared to respondents exposed to the narrative of democratic resilience. We further find marginal evidence that the respondents’ ideological preferences condition the effect of narrative exposure. Our findings suggest that the democratic backsliding literature has insufficiently explored the global consequences of domestic events and processes on democratic decline worldwide.

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International Journal of Public Opinion Research
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Amnon Cavari
Amichai Magen
Benjamin Yoel
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Issue 2
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Montana Gray
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This article originally appeared in The Stanford Daily.

European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell M.S. ’75 visited the Hoover Institution on Monday for an event hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

In a keynote speech followed by a conversation with the institute’s director and former ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, Borrell delved Europe’s crucial role and responsibilities in addressing ongoing war in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as geopolitical security and emerging technology more broadly.

Borrell emphasized the need for EU countries to collectively adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and increase their strategic responsibility. He stressed the importance of European unity in the face of challenges posed by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, noting that the security landscape has “dramatically changed.”

“Europe has to learn to speak the language of power,” Borrell said, emphasizing the need for Europe to increase its military capacities while utilizing all available tools to face global challenges.

Listen to Representative Borrell's full discussion with Michael McFaul below on a special episode of World Class podcast.

Follow the link for a transcript of "Strategic Responsibility in the EU, United States, and Beyond."

Regarding the Israel-Gaza war, Borrell called for a political process that would empower the Palestinian Authority and reach a solution for peace, describing the current state as “a stain on human consciousness.” He urged the international community to push for a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages, and ensure better access to humanitarian aid in the region.

“It is not a natural catastrophe what is happening in Gaza. It is not an earthquake, it is not a flood when you come and help people suffering the consequences. [It] is a manmade disaster, is a manmade catastrophe,” Borrell said.

Among the other global challenges Borrell called for Europe to address was the continent’s dependence on China for critical materials and technologies. He emphasized the importance of coordinating with the US to counter China’s growing influence in the global economic and political sphere.

“More coordination in front of China should be one of the most important things that the Europeans and the Americans should do in order to balance the challenges of this world,” Borrell said.

More broadly, Borrell spoke to the importance of coordination between the US and EU to work globally to protect “political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion.”

Borrell acknowledged that the United States is a global leader in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, and stressed the importance of cooperation on trade and technological innovation. He expressed concern that regulatory hurdles may be hindering the EU’s ability to catch up with the U.S. in the technology sector and emphasized the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping the future of technology.

“I am happy to know that we are partners in building a responsible and human-centric technological innovation,” Borrell said.

The importance of partnership across countries was a throughline in Borrell’s speech, as he concluded with a reminder of the interconnectedness of global security and social well-being. “You cannot be secure at home if your neighbor is not eating dinner.”



Watch High Representative Borrell's full keynote remarks below. Video courtesy of the European Commission.

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Dr. Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, in conversation with Larry Diamond, FSI's Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, at an event hosted by CDDRL's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
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Palestinian Statehood and the War in Gaza

Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, spoke about the quest for peace and Palestinian statehood during a conversation on the Palestinian people, the Gaza War, and the conflict’s implications for stability in the Middle East, hosted by CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
Palestinian Statehood and the War in Gaza
Michael McFaul listens to President Zuzana Čaputová speak during the Q&A portion of her fireside chat at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
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Slovak President Optimistic about Democracy, but Warns about Russian Misinformation

During a visit to the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová reminded the Stanford community that the stakes of the war in Ukraine are high and will impact democracies far beyond Eastern and Central Europe.
Slovak President Optimistic about Democracy, but Warns about Russian Misinformation
Will Dobson, book cover of "Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power," and Chris Walker
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How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?

Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).
How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?
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Borrell emphasized the need for EU countries to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and increase their strategic responsibility, whether in responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine, the crisis in Gaza, or competition with China.

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Heather Rahimi
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The evolving dynamics of technological leadership and the increasing strain on U.S.-China relations pose significant challenges for global innovation and economic stability, Craig Allen, President of the U.S.-China Business Council, told an audience at Stanford University on May 3, 2024. His speech delved into China's ambitious technological goals, the impact of U.S. export controls, and the future landscape of global innovation amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Allen began with an anecdote about a conversation with the governor of one of China's poorest agricultural provinces. When asked about his economic priorities, the governor cited advanced technologies such as semiconductors and biotechnology, mirroring the sectors highlighted in the Made in China 2025 plan. This response underscored China's government's relentless focus on technological advancement across all levels of government, which Allen described as a "techno-utopian quest."

Allen traced the roots of China's techno-utopianism back over a century ago to the May 4th Movement, which called for a new culture based on science and democracy. He argued that this vision aligns perfectly with Marxist ideology and the Communist Party's current policies. "China’s leaders have long believed in the transformative power of technology," Allen noted, "a belief that is deeply embedded in their political and ideological fabric."

China’s leaders have long believed in the transformative power of technology, a belief that is deeply embedded in their political and ideological fabric.

Allen emphasized that China is not just an "innovation sponge" but has also become a leader in its own right. "China’s definition of innovation is tailored to its needs," he said, "differing significantly from the Silicon Valley model." He outlined five key points about the new productive forces that may distinguish Shenzhen from Silicon Valley:

  1. China recognizes that it is facing an acute labor shortage and is thus focusing on factory automation and efficient production in mature industries.
  2. China wants to spur innovation and create new industries at almost any cost.
  3. There is an overwhelming mandate for self-reliance and import substitution. 
  4. There is plenty of government money.  
  5. China plans to turn “data” into the “fifth factor of production”, behind – land, capital, labor, and entrepreneurship. 
     

China’s innovation is evident in its ambitious industrial policies, which are supported by substantial government funding and a strategic focus on self-reliance and import substitution.

Allen continued to discuss the implications of the U.S. export controls aimed at decoupling from China, highlighting the unintended consequences for American companies. He pointed out that unilateral export controls often harm U.S. firms more than their intended targets by reducing their customer base and long-term competitiveness. "We must recognize that these controls can backfire, hurting our own industries while China accelerates its push for technological independence," Allen warned.

We must recognize that these [export] controls can backfire, hurting our own industries while China accelerates its push for technological independence.

Another critical issue raised by Allen was the regulation of data flows. China's Cyber Administration has introduced stringent controls over cross-border data transfers. "The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly complex," Allen explained, "making it challenging for companies to maintain operational connectivity and compliance across borders."

From a corporate perspective, Allen urged companies to recognize the political realities and prepare for potential conflicts that could disrupt international trade. Many American firms are already scenario planning for severe sanctions, similar to those imposed on Russia, to ensure business continuity. "Strategic foresight is essential," he advised, "as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China show no signs of abating."

Craig Allen's remarks were a reminder of the far-reaching implications of the competition for technology leadership between the U.S. and China. His insights underscored the need for a nuanced understanding of China's ambitions and the strategic adjustments required for American businesses to navigate this complex landscape. As the world witnesses unprecedented techno-economic competition, the stakes for both nations and the global economy could not be higher.

All views Craig Allen shared are his own and do not reflect the positions of the US-China Business Council.
 



Watch the Recorded Event   



Discover more from the inaugural SCCEI China Conference which brought together over 20 expert panelists from around the world and from across Stanford’s schools and disciplines, as well as experts and business leaders from Silicon Valley and the Bay Area to share insights on China's economic prospects. 
 


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Lessons of History: The rise and fall of technology in Chinese history event on Thursday, 9/28/23 at 4:30pm with MIT prof. Yasheng Huang.
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Lessons of History: The Rise and Fall of Technology in Chinese History

MIT Professor Yasheng Huang joined SCCEI and Stanford Libraries to deliver a talk examining the factors behind the rise and the fall of Chinese historical technology and lessons for today’s China.
Lessons of History: The Rise and Fall of Technology in Chinese History
Washington DC capital building
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2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China

SCCEI’s Impact Team attended the 13th Annual China Business Conference held in Washington, D.C. in May 2023. The team shares insights from the conference on issues raised surrounding the troubled U.S.-China relationship.
2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China
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Craig Allen, the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, spoke on the evolving dynamics of technological leadership between the U.S. and China and their implications for the rest of the world.

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Sergiy Leshchenko, 2024: A Decisive Year in Russia's War in Ukraine

In 2022, Russia initiated an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, marking the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Despite initial gains, Putin was unable to change the political landscape in Kyiv, and approximately half of the territories initially seized by Russian forces were later reclaimed by Ukraine. However, the war is far from over. The war has also tested American leadership, particularly as China and France have expanded their international influence. The upcoming U.S. presidential election further escalates the uncertainty, as continued American support for Ukraine is critical. A Ukrainian victory is pivotal not only for regional stability but also for the security of American citizens.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Sergiy Leshchenko is formerly a journalist with Ukrainska Pravda and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament (2014-2019). He first rose to political prominence during Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution and has continued to serve in government and civil society since. He is an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief-of-staff and the initiator of the Working Group on Sanctions Against Russia, co-led by Michael McFaul. Mr. Leshchenko is an alumnus of the 2013 cohort of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program (now the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program) at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner

In-person: Philippines Conference Room (Encina Hall, 3rd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)
Online: Via Zoom

Sergiy Leshchenko Advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff
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About the Event: The Russian system is different than our own, in ways that matter. Yet, longstanding assumptions and understandings about how policy is made are outdated and misleading, and overlook festering internal dynamics which increasingly influence Russian decisions and actions. Analysts and policymakers should take stock and re-calibrate accordingly.

Lunch to be provided for registered attendees.

About the Speaker: Steedman Hinckley served seven presidents analyzing and advising on Soviet/Russian affairs at the departments of state and defense, the US embassy in Moscow, the White House, and the intelligence community. He retired in 2023 as a member of CIA’s senior analytic service. He holds a B.A. in Russian and Soviet Studies from Wesleyan University and an M.Phil. in policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School. 

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Steedman Hinckley
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