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While the full political and economic implications of the June 2016 referendum to take the UK out of the EU remain unknown (and indeed unknowable), it is possible to already gauge some of the potential institutional implications that will result regardless of the details of the divorce settlement ultimately negotiated.  Among the various institutional effects will be a shift in the partisan dynamics within the European Parliament and a rebalancing of the various coalition patterns within the Council and the European Council, while the Commission and the European Court of Justice will be arguably less effected. The long term political implications of these anticipated changes are not immediately clear. To some degree the long term implications of Brexit for the functioning of the EU will depend on the outcomes of a number of critical upcoming national elections, which themselves may be impacted by the perceived groundswell of support across Europe for Euro-skeptic and anti-establishment parties following the Brexit vote. The largest impact of Brexit may not be the tangible institutional and political dynamics caused by the British departure from the EU, but rather from the critical support the Brexit vote has provided for Euro-skeptic actors across the EU.

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Amie Kreppel is a Jean Monnet Chair (ad personam) and the founding Director of the Jean Monnet Center of Excellence (JMCE) at the University of Florida (2007- present). She also served as the founding Director of the University of Florida’s Title VI funded Center for European Studies (CES) from 2003-2011. She is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science. Dr. Kreppel has written extensively on the political institutions of Europe in general and the European Union and Italy more specifically. Her publications include a book on the Development of the European Parliament and Supranational Party System (2002), and two edited volumes on decision making in the EU (2015) and politics in Italy (2014), as well as articles in a wide variety of journals including Comparative Political Studies, the British Journal of Political Research, European Union Politics, the European Journal of Political Research, Political Research Quarterly, the Journal of European Public Policy and the Journal of Common Market Studies.

For many years, it seemed as if the German party system was immune to the temptations of right-wing populist parties. This picture changed with the emergence of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). With its initial anti-European, and later strongly anti-Islamic rhetoric, the AfD has become the most successful emerging party in Germany. Just a few months after its foundation in 2013, the AfD received nearly 5% of the votes in the Federal Election and failed to enter the German Bundestag by only a few thousand votes. Today, the AfD is represented in ten out of sixteen German state parliaments, entered the European Parliament and gained several seats in both regional and local elections.

This talk will discuss how the emergence and establishment of the AfD is likely to alter Germany’s party system. Various resources (candidate surveys, election data and party manifestos) are analyzed to shed some light on the AfD’s ideological positioning, its political personnel, and the unequal regional distribution of its electoral success. The talk will conclude with a brief outlook toward the upcoming German Federal Election in 2017 and how a permanent extension of the party system to the extreme right-hand side of the ideological spectrum will narrow the scope for the formation of future government coalitions.

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Markus Tepe is a professor of Political Science (Political System of Germany) at the University of Oldenburg. He holds a doctoral degree from the Free University of Berlin (FU Berlin) and an MA in Political Science, Public Law and Economic Policy from the University of Münster. His research centers on public policies, political economy, and laboratory experiments in social science research. Currently, he is conducting a research project on need-based justice and redistribution (FOR2104) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Markus is a Visiting Scholar at The Europe Center for 2016-2017.

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Two decades after the integration of much of Eastern Europe into the EU, Europe is faced with increasingly complex security challenges—refugee migrations from the mid-East and north-Africa;  Russia’s cross territorial incursions, hybrid warfare, and war on information; strains on social welfare economies; shifting sources of energy; and of course the daily threat of terrorism.    On each of these issues, Germany has embraced a leadership role, representing a paradigm shift for a nation that even 70 years after the end of the Second World War is still reluctant to assert itself.  US Ambassador to Germany John B. Emerson will address how Germany is reshaping its security policy as it relates to military engagement, intelligence and counter-terrorism, technology, energy, transatlantic trade, and the longer-term threats posed by a changing climate.   In addition, he will discuss the emerging political dynamic in Germany and in particular the challenges Chancellor Merkel is facing domestically as Germany seeks to integrate well over a million refugees. 

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Abstract

The existence of two Chinese states—one controlling mainland China, the other controlling the island of Taiwan—is often understood as a seemingly inevitable outcome of the Chinese civil war. Defeated by Mao Zedong, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists fled to Taiwan to establish a rival state, thereby creating the “Two Chinas” dilemma that vexes international diplomacy to this day. Accidental State challenges this conventional narrative to offer a new perspective on the founding of modern Taiwan.

Hsiao-ting Lin marshals extensive research in recently declassified archives to show that the creation of a Taiwanese state in the early 1950s owed more to serendipity than careful geostrategic planning. It was the cumulative outcome of ad hoc half-measures and imperfect compromises, particularly when it came to the Nationalists’ often contentious relationship with the United States.

Taiwan’s political status was fraught from the start. The island had been formally ceded to Japan after the First Sino–Japanese War, and during World War II the Allies promised Chiang that Taiwan would revert to Chinese rule after Japan’s defeat. But as the Chinese civil war turned against the Nationalists, U.S. policymakers reassessed the wisdom of backing Chiang. The idea of placing Taiwan under United Nations trusteeship gained traction. Cold War realities, and the fear of Taiwan falling into Communist hands, led Washington to recalibrate U.S. policy. Yet American support of a Taiwan-based Republic of China remained ambivalent, and Taiwan had to eke out a place for itself in international affairs as a de facto, if not fully sovereign, state.

Biography

Hsiao-ting Lin is a research fellow and curator of the East Asia Collection at the Hoover Institution. He holds a BA in political science from National Taiwan University (1994) and an MA in international law and diplomacy from National Chengchi University in Taiwan (1997). He received his DPhil in oriental studies in 2003 from the University of Oxford, where he also held an appointment as tutorial fellow in modern Chinese history. In 2003–4, Lin was a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California at Berkeley. In 2004, he was awarded the Kiriyama Distinguished Fellowship by the Center for the Pacific Rim, University of San Francisco. In 2005–7, he was a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he participated in Hoover’s Modern China Archives and Special Collections project. In April 2008, Lin was elected a fellow of the Royal Asiatic Society of Great Britain and Ireland for his contributions to the studies of modern China’s history.

Lin’s academic interests include ethnopolitics and minority issues in greater China, border strategies and defenses in modern China, political institutions and the bureaucratic system of the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang), and US-Taiwan military and political relations during the Cold War. He has published extensively on modern Chinese and Taiwanese politics, history, and ethnic minorities, including Accidental State: Chiang Kai-shek, the United States, and the Making of Taiwan (Harvard University Press, 2016); Modern China’s Ethnic Frontiers: A Journey to the West (Routledge, 2011); Breaking with the Past: The Kuomintang Central Reform Committee on Taiwan, 1950–52 (Hoover Press, 2007); Tibet and Nationalist China’s Frontier: Intrigues and Ethnopolitics, 1928–49 (UBC Press, 2006), nominated as the best study in the humanities at the 2007 International Convention of Asia Scholars; and over a hundred journal articles, book chapters, edited volumes, reviews, opinion pieces, and translations. He is currently at work on a manuscript that reevaluates Taiwan’s relations with China and the United States during the presidency of Harry Truman to that of Jimmy Carter.

This event is sponsored by the Taiwan Democracy Project in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. It is free and open to the public, and lunch will be served. Please RSVP by November 28.

This talk will be based on Professor Lin's new book, Taiwan's China Dilemma: Contested Identities and Multiple Interests in Taiwan's Cross-Strait Economic Policy, Stanford University Press (2016). 

Abstract

China and Taiwan share one of the world's most complex international relationships. Although their similar cultures and complementary economies promoted an explosion of commercial ties since the late 1980s, they have not led to a stable political relationship, let alone progress toward the unification that both governments once claimed to seek. In addition, Taiwan’s economic policy toward China has alternated between liberalization and restriction. Most recently, Taiwan's Sunflower Movement succeeded in obstructing deeper economic ties with China. Why has Taiwan's policy toward China been so controversial and inconsistent?

Author Syaru Shirley Lin explains the divergence between the development of economic and political relations across the Taiwan Strait and the oscillation of Taiwan’s cross-Strait economic policy through the interplay of national identity and economic interests. She shows how the debate over Taiwanese national identity has been intimately linked to Taiwan’s economic policy during a turbulent time in cross-Strait relations. Using primary sources, opinion surveys, and interviews with Taiwanese opinion leaders, she paints a vivid picture of one of the most unsettled and dangerous relationships in the contemporary world.

As Taiwan grapples with the growing importance of the Chinese economy, it also experiences the uneven socio-economic consequences of globalization. This has produced a reconsideration of the desired degree of further integration with China, especially among the younger generations. Taiwan’s China Dilemma illustrates the growing backlash against economic liberalization and regional economic integration around the world.

Biography

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Syaru Shirley Lin teaches political science at the University of Virginia and is a member of the founding faculty of the master’s program in global political economy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Her book, Taiwan’s China Dilemma: Contested Identities and Multiple Interests in Taiwan's Cross-Strait Economic Policy, was published by Stanford University Press in 2016. She graduated from Harvard College and earned her masters and Ph.D. from the University of Hong Kong. Before starting her academic career, Prof. Lin was a partner at Goldman Sachs, where she was responsible for direct investment in Asia and spearheaded the firm’s investments in many technology start-ups such as Alibaba and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. Previously, she specialized in the privatization of state-owned enterprises in Singapore and China. Prof. Lin’s present board service includes Goldman Sachs Asia Bank, Langham Hospitality Investments and Mercuries Life Insurance. She also advises Crestview Partners and the Focused Ultrasound Foundation and is a member of the Hong Kong Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation.

This event is sponsored by the Taiwan Democracy Project in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. It is free and open to the public, and lunch will be served. Please RSVP by October 17.

By 2050, two out of three people will live in cities worldwide. The addition of 2.5 billion urban dwellers requires cities to accommodate the needs of a rapidly growing population. As Chinese and American cities confront environmental problems, housing costs, congestion, and widening social inequity, the Stanford Human Cities Initiative (HCI) works to address these urgent issues by advancing a human-centered approach to cities in order to benefit the environment, economy, and society at large.

The Stanford Human Cities Initiative is an interdisciplinary effort based out of the Program on Urban Studies. Recognizing that cities are complex, the HCI works to cultivate a 21st-century century mindset and tools to address urban challenges. Drawing from rigorous methods from engineering, architecture, planning, and design, its mission is to combine these approaches and enable cities to reach their full potential beyond the siloed approach of one discipline. The HCI works simultaneously at the global and local scales to ensure that these approaches are complementary, while prioritizing human relationships and social inclusion.

Join Deland Chan and Kevin Hsu, co-founders of the Stanford Human Cities Initiative, in a conversation about the future of cities. They will discuss the framing of the “human city” and the benefits of an interdisciplinary and multi-sector approach. Learn how you can get involved with the Initiative’s efforts to engage departments from within and outside Stanford, as well as partnerships with international NGOs, community-based organizations, and the private sector.

The talk will follow student presentations from the International Urbanization Seminar, a Human Cities course offered in long-term collaboration with Tsinghua University.

Learn more about Stanford Human Cities Initiative

http://www.humancities.org

FOR REGISTRATION: Email: sanjiu39@stanford.edu; Tel: 10-62744163

Andrew Moravcsik, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Director of the European Union Program at Princeton, spoke about the four major crises faced by Europe today and presented his arguments as to why they present less cause for concern than current discourse would suggest.

The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace was founded nearly 100 years ago as the Hoover War Library with a donation by Herbert Hoover, who later said, “This Institution is not, and must not be, a mere library, but…must dynamically point the road to peace, to personal freedom, and to the safeguards of the American system.”  Since its founding, the Hoover Institution has grown into one of the most prominent global research centers (“think tanks”) and the only one with a world class Library & Archives as its foundation. Today Hoover supports hundreds of fellows in disciplines including economics, history, political science, and the humanities, while maintaining a Library & Archive that is among the largest in the United States with almost 7,000 archival collections in more than 150 languages. The Library & Archives draws over 10,000 visitors annually to its reading rooms, events, exhibits, scholarly conferences and workshops. Eric Wakin, Deputy Director of Hoover and the Robert H. Malott director of its Library & Archives, will discuss the rich history of this unique Institution and where it will be headed in its next hundred years.

胡佛研究所（全称“胡佛战争、革命与和平研究所”）成立于近一百年前，最早称作“胡佛战争图书馆”，由赫伯特·胡佛（后来任美国第31届总统）创建。他曾说，“这个研究所绝对不能仅仅是一个图书馆，还应指引美国的和平、自由之路，同时捍卫美国的制度”。自创立以来，胡佛研究所已经成长为全球著名的研究机构（智库）之一，也是唯一自建立之初拥有世界级图书与档案馆的研究所。如今，胡佛研究所支持几百位来自不同领域的研究者进行研究，包含：经济学、历史学、政治学以及其他人文学科，同时维持图书与档案馆的运营。作为美国最大的图书与档案馆之一，胡佛档案馆内拥有150多种语言的7000多类档案文件，每年能够吸引上万名读者来到阅读室、展览区参加学术会议和工作坊。Wakin教授作为胡佛研究所副所长、胡佛研究所图书与档案馆馆长，将会探讨胡佛研究所的丰富历史，并展望研究所未来百年的发展方向。

Eric Wakin is the deputy director of the Hoover Institution and the Robert H. Malott Director of the Institution’s library and archives, overseeing their strategic direction and operations. Wakin is the author of Anthropology Goes to War: Professional Ethics and Counterinsurgency in Thailand. His current research interest is guns and gun control in the nineteenth-century United States and he is revising a manuscript titled "From Flintlock to ‘Tramps’ Terror’: Guns and Gun Control in Nineteenth-Century New York City.” He has also coauthored a number of walking-tour books and travel guides. Before coming to Hoover, Wakin was the Herbert H. Lehman Curator for American History and the Curator of Manuscripts at the Rare Book & Manuscript Library at Columbia University, where he also taught courses in the History Department on public history, memory and narrative, archives and knowledge, and theory.

Wakin教授为美国斯坦福大学胡佛研究所副所长、胡佛研究所图书与档案馆馆长，负责胡佛研究所战略规划和设计。Wakin教授著有《人类学走向战争：泰国的职业伦理与叛乱镇压》（Anthropology Goes to War: Professional Ethics and Counterinsurgency in Thailand.）。他最近的研究方向为19世纪美国的枪支及其管控，正在修订一篇题为《从老式火枪到“流浪汉”的恐惧：19世纪纽约城的枪支及其管控》（From Flintlock to ‘Tramps’ Terror: Guns and Gun Control in Nineteenth-Century New York City）的书稿。任职胡佛研究所之前，Wakin 教授是哥伦比亚大学莱曼美国历史中心主任、哥伦比亚大学珍本与手稿图书馆馆长。同时，他也在哥伦比亚大学历史系教授有关公共历史、记忆与叙事、档案的课程。Wakin教授先后于密西根大学和哥伦比亚大学获得硕士、博士学位，并先后为数十家企业提供企业战略发展、运筹规划的咨询。

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Barack Obama is not the first U.S. president to deal with the problem of overcommitment abroad.  How does his record compare with earlier cases?  Can the past help us understand the foreign policy debate of 2016?  Can it tell us how, when—and whether—today’s retrenchment will end?

Stephen Sestanovich is a professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of Maximalist: America in the World from Truman to Obama (Knopf 2014). 

From 1997 to 2001, Sestanovich was the U.S. State Department's ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union.  In previous government assignments, he was senior director for policy development at the National Security Council, a member of the State Department’s policy planning staff, and legislative assistant to Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He has also worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Ambassador Sestanovich received his BA summa cum laude from Cornell University and his PhD from Harvard University. He has written for Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and other publications. He is a member of the board of directors of the National Endowment for Democracy.     

Event co-sponsored by the Center for International Security and Cooperation