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Debak Das, CISAC’s MacArthur Nuclear Security Pre-doctoral Fellow, and his roundtable contributors examine the rising tensions between Pakistan and India and look at what the future might hold for the region. “Political relations in South Asia have hit rough weather,” writes Das. “So where does the nuclear relationship between India and Pakistan stand? Where do the key threats to peace in the region come from?” 

 

Read the rest at Texas National Security Review

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Noa Ronkin
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Type 2 diabetes has become a major public health problem in South Asia in recent decades. The region is now home to an estimated 84 million people suffering from diabetes—approximately one-fifth of the world’s 451 million adults with diabetes—a number that is expected to rise by 78% by 2045. Even more concerning, across South Asia the disease burden increasingly occurs in the most productive midlife period. Among Indians, for example, diabetes is estimated to occur on average 10 years earlier than their western counterparts, and almost half of Indian patients with type 2 diabetes are diagnosed before age 40.

How do South Asian health system influence diabetes care? What is the magnitude of the economic impact of diabetes in South Asia? And what can be done to mitigate that economic burden? These are some of the questions that a team of researchers, including Karen Eggleston, APARC’s deputy director and director of the Asia Health Policy Program, set out to answer in a new study published in the journal Current Diabetes Reports.

Eggleston co-authored the study with Kavita Singh of the Public Health Foundation of India and the Centre for Chronic Disease Control in New Delhi, and with M. Venkat Narayan, Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology and Director of the Global Diabetes Research Center at Emory University. They find that diabetes-related complications lead to enormous treatment costs, causing catastrophic medical spending and illness-induced poverty for many households.

The new study is related to a broader research project led by Eggleston, entitled Net Value in Diabetes Management, that compares health care use, medical spending, and clinical outcomes for patients with diabetes as a lens for understanding the economics of caring for patients with complicated chronic diseases across diverse health systems. This international collaborative research convenes teams of clinicians and health economists in ten countries (and growing) across Asia, as well as the United States and The Netherlands. Together, they analyze big data—detailed, longitudinal patient-level information for large samples from each country, including millions of records of clinical encounters, health-check-up, and medical spending—to compare the health care use and patient outcomes for adults with type 2 diabetes in their health systems.

In the new publication, Eggleston and her co-authors first introduce several unique features that characterize the type 2 diabetes epidemic in South Asia. These include a high risk of developing diabetes even at lower levels of body mass index than observed among western populations; a high prevalence of glucose intolerance, low levels of HDL cholesterol, and high levels of triglycerides; a relationship between impaired fetal nutrition, diabetes, and cardiovascular risk; and the likelihood of rapid urbanization impacting the diabetes burden of the wealthy and the underprivileged differently.

Furthermore, South Asian countries face difficult challenges in delivering diabetes care. The health sector in the region has little organized financing, leading to heavy out-of-pocket spending by patients. Limited availability and affordability of anti-diabetic drugs is a major driver of lower use of such medicines. These factors, combined with a general lack of health care professionals and infrastructural resources and low quality of healthcare governance, all contribute to poor health outcomes.

Eggleston and her co-authors assess the current literature on the economic impact of diabetes in South Asia. They show that, compared with the high prevalence of diabetes in South Asian countries, the total health spending as a percentage of GDP in the region has remained low and fairly constant (3-4% in most countries) over the last two decades, with less than 1% of GDP spent on healthcare by the government, and a miniscule 0.2% by pre-paid private insurance, resulting in a large proportion of out-of-pocket healthcare spending. The financial burden of diabetes and its complications can therefore have catastrophic implications for households that are often driven to sacrifice disastrous proportions of their income to cover treatment costs.

Diabetes causes premature mortality, high morbidity, and disability. To mitigate the economic and social welfare burden of the disease, the researchers conclude, policymakers in South Asia must take urgent action “to increase investment in evaluating cost-effective strategies to manage diabetes and preventative approaches.” The team offers a set of policy recommendations, including monitoring the economic burden of diabetes and the quality of care; focusing on the screening and prevention of diabetes and its risk factors; strengthening government health facilities and primary care services; expanding access to affordable, essential medicines, and more.

 

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With an estimated 84 million people suffering from diabetes in South Asia, the disease imposes substantial economic burdens on individuals, families, and society. Furthermore, since the disease burden increasingly occurs in the most productive midlife period, it adversely affects workforce productivity and macroeconomic development. Diabetes-related complications lead to markedly higher treatment costs, causing catastrophic medical spending for many households, thus underscoring the importance of preventing diabetes-related complications.

This review describes the unique features of the diabetes epidemic in South Asia, critically assesses and identifies the gaps in the current literature on the economic impact of diabetes in South Asia, and finally, offers recommendations on ways to mitigate the economic burden of diabetes.

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Current Diabetes Reports
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Karen Eggleston
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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series


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ABSTRACT: Why does success in combat sometimes fail to produce a stable and durable peace settlement? In the 1965 war, India successfully repelled a Pakistani invasion of the disputed territory of Kashmir, captured new territory, and launched a massive counter-offensive – but it did not improve the long-term security of Kashmir or deter future Pakistani aggression. This presentation offers an explanation that shows how war can help to establish deterrence between enduring rivals. I argue combat success is important, but must be paired with costly signals of resolve. In 1965, India achieved combat success but failed to deliver such signals of resolve: it did not permanently retain the Kashmiri territory it captured, and it deliberately limited the strategic threat posed by its counter-offensive. As a result, India defended against invasion without establishing post-war deterrence. India’s current military strategy continues to favor ineffective and potentially destabilizing concepts of deterrence. This carries implications not only for regional security, but also U.S. strategy, which increasingly depends on India to maintain a favorable and stable regional balance of power.
 
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Arzan Tarapore
PROFILE:
Arzan Tarapore is a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, an adjunct defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, and from Fall 2019, an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University. His research lies at the intersection of South Asian politics and military strategy. His current book project explains the concept of strategic effectiveness, drawing on in-depth historical case studies of India’s war-fighting experience since 1965. Prior to his scholarly career, Arzan served for 13 years in the Australian Defence Department, which included operational deployments and a diplomatic posting to Washington, DC. He holds a PhD in war studies from King’s College London.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Philippines Conference RoomEncina Hall, 3rd Floor, Central616 Serra Street, Stanford, CA 94305
Arzan Tarapore Nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research
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We assess and compare computer science skills among final-year computer science undergraduates (seniors) in four major economic and political powers that produce approximately half of the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates in the world. We find that seniors in the United States substantially outperform seniors in China, India, and Russia by 0.76–0.88 SDs and score comparably with seniors in elite institutions in these countries. Seniors in elite institutions in the United States further outperform seniors in elite institutions in China, India, and Russia by ∼0.85 SDs. The skills advantage of the United States is not because it has a large proportion of high-scoring international students. Finally, males score consistently but only moderately higher (0.16–0.41 SDs) than females within all four countries.

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Prashant Loyalka
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EMERGING ISSUES IN CONTEMPORARY ASIA

A Special Seminar Series


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Oral Democracy studies citizens' voices in civic and political deliberations in India's gram sabhas (village assemblies), the largest deliberative institution in human history. The book analyses nearly three hundred transcripts of gram sabhas, sampled within the framework of a natural experiment, allowing the authors to study how state policy affects the quality of discourse, citizens' discursive performances and state enactments embodied by elected leaders and public officials. By drawing out the varieties of speech apparent in citizen and state interactions, the authors’ analysis shows that citizens' oral participation in development and governance can be improved by strengthening deliberative spaces through policy. Even in conditions of high inequality and illiteracy, gram sabhas can create discursive equality by developing the “oral competence” of citizens and establishing a space in which they can articulate their interests. The authors develop the concept of 'oral democracy' to aid the understanding of deliberative systems in non-Western and developing countries. 

Vijayendra (Biju) Rao, a Lead Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank, works at the intersection of scholarship and practice.  He integrates his training in economics with theories and methods from anthropology, sociology and political science to study the social, cultural, and political context of extreme poverty in developing countries. He leads the Social Observatory, an inter-disciplinary lab to improve the conversation between citizens and governments.  His research, published in leading journals in Economics, Political Science and Development Studies has spanned a variety of subjects including dowries in India, domestic violence, the economics of sex work, public celebrations, community development, and deliberative democracy.   He and Ghazala Mansuri co-authored  Localizing Development: Does Participation Work? He is speaking about his latest book (with Paromita Sanyal), Oral Democracy: Deliberation in Rural India (Cambridge University Press, 2019).  It be downloaded for free from here. He was a co-author of the 2006 World Development Report on Equity and Development, and has co-edited Culture and Public ActionHistory, Historians and Development Policy, and, Deliberation and Development.  He serves on the editorial boards of several journals and is a  member of the Successful Societies Program at the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR).
 

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APARC's Direcror of the Southeast Asia Program Donald K. Emmerson, Center Fellow Thomas Fingar, and Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow David M. Lampton spoke with The New Silk Road Project as part of a series of conversations that explores China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from various perspectives. The New Silk Road Project is a student-led research project that aims to better understand and raise awareness of China’s BRI by documenting its land-based component and compiling interviews with leading academics. 
 
Listen to the complete interviews below.
 
Donald K. Emmerson discusses Chinese investment in ASEAN, multilateralism, and the possibility of building the Kra Canal across Thailand to help offset China’s Malacca Dilemma:
 
 
Thomas Fingar discusses how Chinese policies and priorities interact with the goals and actions of other countries in Central and South Asia:
 
 
David M. Lampton discusses China’s development of high-speed railway networks in Southeast Asia:
 

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Ph.D.

Ketian Vivian Zhang joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as the 2018-2019 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia. Ketian studies coercion, economic sanctions, and maritime territorial disputes in international relations and social movements in comparative politics, with a regional focus on China and East Asia. She bridges the study of international relations and comparative politics and has a broader theoretical interest in linking international security and international political economy. Her book project examines when, why, and how China uses coercion when faced with issues of national security, such as territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas, foreign arms sales to Taiwan, and foreign leaders’ reception of the Dalai Lama. Ketian's research has been supported by organizations such as the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at George Washington University, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation.

At Shorenstein APARC, Ketian worked on turning parts of her book project into academic journal papers while conducting fieldwork for her next major project: examining how target states of Chinese coercion respond to China's assertiveness, including the business community and ordinary citizens.

Ketian received her Ph.D. in Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018, where she is also an affiliate of the Security Studies Program. Before coming to Stanford, Ketian was a Predoctoral Research Fellow in the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. Ketian holds a B.A. in Political Science and Sociology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and was previously a research intern at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., where she was a contributor to its website Foreign Policy in Focus.

2018-2019 Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia
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Beth Duff-Brown
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Suhani Jalota was only 20 years old when she established a foundation to help impoverished women in the slums of her native city, Mumbai. She was 23 when Forbes named her one of Asia’s 30-Under-30 Social Entrepreneurs as her foundation was taking off.

Now, at the ripe old age of 24, she is embarking on her pursuit of a PhD in health policy on the econ track at Stanford Medicine’s Department of Health Research and Policy.

As a social entrepreneur, she is hoping to create self-sustaining health organizations managed entirely by the people in the low-income communities they serve.

Last year, Jalota, who is also in the first cohort of Knight-Hennessy Scholars, received the Queen’s Young Leader award from Queen Elizabeth II and attended the royal wedding of Prince Harry and American actress Meghan Markle, who is now Duchess of Sussex.

The Myna Mahila Foundation— which provides affordable sanitary products and promotes employment and empowerment among women in Mumbai’s slums — was the only non-UK charity chosen to receive donations in lieu of gifts for the royal couple.

Stanford Health Policy caught up with Jalota to ask her a few questions about what inspires her and how she became so passionate about sanitary health and empowering women in India.

Who inspired you to become social-entrepreneur at such a young age?

I come from a government family and, growing up, our conversations at home were always about the development of India and the status of women. My father is an Indian civil servant who has worked on water sanitation for the city; my mom works with underprivileged girl children, and my brother creates water filters for the same slum community. My grandparents were in the police. It’s just what we do. It’s our family calling. 

As for entrepreneurship, it was Duke University, the Baldwin Scholars Program and the Melissa and Doug Entrepreneurship Fellowship that actually made me believe that all the dreams I had to change the pitiful state of things on the ground in Mumbai could actually be achievable. There I learned to translate the problems I saw to actionable items that the institution was willing to back and support endlessly.

Then in 2011, I met Dr. Jockin Arputham, who spent 40 years working in the slums of Mumbai as the founder of Slum Dwellers International. He became my inspiration, my idol and my mentor. He singlehandedly improved the lives of millions of women.

Dr. Arputham passed away in October. I am here to complete this mission.

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What inspired you to establish the Myna Mahila Foundation? 

When I started spending more time with women in the slum communities they told me horrific stories about living on the railway tracks, children dying in front of them, and not being able to walk the public toilets without being sexually harassed. Some were taking pills to constipate themselves just so they did not have to go to the public toilet. Others would tell me how they had been married off at 12 and were still living with drunk husbands who beat them every day. 

Women were ignoring their own health and it really struck me as how this would lead to such wasted potential for the women, and for India.

The slum community leaders and I began brainstorming — we became very chatty. That’s where the name comes from. Myna from the chatty South Asian bird and Mahila, which means women in Hindi. And we found that their menstrual cycles were physically and mentally exhausting. We found that sanitation and hygiene were clear signals of dignity for women, so we jumped on that.

You see, 320 million women in India do not have access to sanitary pads. And menstruation in India is a taboo health topic; there is a stigma to shopping for sanitary pads. Most women use rags on their periods and these often become dirty, leading to urinary and vaginal infections.

When you are trapped under an aluminum roof where your horizon is the lining of the slum settlement, and you only see limitations ahead of you, it is difficult to see another way of life. After more than six years of working on sanitation and health research with these women, I realized the problems lay deeply entrenched in a woman’s lack of agency, or ability to make decisions. You are brought up to think that what the generations ahead of you have been doing is the only way of life. Hiding your periods, not cooking food or sleeping with the family during your periods, not going to the temple or playing sports — you believe this is the only way to live.

So we came up with a scheme to sell sanitary pads door-to-door to women who would normally not leave their homes or go to a pharmacy to buy them from male clerks. And we get to know these women; they are opening up and exploring things outside the confines of their husbands’ world. I learned that if women were confident to talk about their periods and menstrual hygiene, it could break the silence surrounding domestic violence or sanitation.

Tell us about the women who work for you and the women you serve. 

We employ women from the slum communities we serve, including the accountants, production and sales managers, and the education trainers. We work mostly with Muslim women as that is a representation of the demographics of the communities we are in.

We currently meet about 10,000 women at their doorsteps every month in the 12 slums across Mumbai. It’s not about giving out free pads — a woman gets her period 450 times in her lifetime, so what we’re trying to do is make sure that she understands that it’s a normal health cycle that should not stop her from getting her education and jobs. We have more than 500 girls in our sponsor a girl program, with 100 more girls joining every month. We hold individual counseling and mentorship for these girls along with menstrual hygiene workshops at health camps. We employ 20 women and have partnerships with self-help groups across the city who work with us part-time.

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You strongly believe that self-sustaining health organizations should be managed by women in those communities. Why is this so important?

In the words of my mentor Dr. Arputham, it’s not our purpose to tell the women in the slums what to do; you must think about it from their perspective of what they need and help them create their own change. This has been my mission ever since.

We have millions of NGOs in India so you realize that if things are not really improving at a national level, then there’s something that we’re not doing right. We need the civic mindset to marry the efficiency of the business world. This makes people less dependent and more autonomous to be in control of their own situations. And that comes with a sense of pride.

Why focus on health and sanitation?

We are still struggling with the basics in India: basic health, which includes food, housing, potable water and improved sanitation. Numerous research studies have demonstrated that improvements in sanitation have led to dramatic improvements in health, such as life expectancy outcome measures. Unless we have basic health standards achieved, we will remain behind. To add to the problem, health-care is often deprioritized in India. While it accounts for nearly 18 percent of the GDP here in the United States, for example, it only accounts for 1 percent in India. Can you imagine that? With more than 1 billion people. The role of the public sector in India is to get people on the same level playing field with the basics: education, health care so you’re well enough to go to school or work, find food, shelter and water.

India is a true democracy — so if people start to recognize the importance of health and demand better health care, they can get it. 

What are your goals for the PhD?

To learn more research techniques to use for conducting experiments on the ground for a variety of topics, including women’s demand for health care, effects of positions of power in seeking health care, and the connection between environment and health. On the supply side, I am becoming increasingly interested in understanding pay-for-performance incentive structures in health institutions and for front-line health workers.

I will also be spending my December breaks and summers in India working at the foundation. After my second year, I hope to continue data collection for my dissertation topic: the effect of environmental changes on health outcomes, such as child stunting levels in the slums. As part of my undergrad thesis, I collected anthropometric data on 880 children to look at the effect of slum redevelopment (when the government forcibly relocates people from slums to government subsidized housing) on child stunting. I learned that when a child has one additional year in the buildings — instead of out in the slums with no toilets and clean water and proper ventilation — they were less likely to be stunted. The effect was even more pronounced (and significant) for children moving from slums without toilets than for children moving from slums with toilets.

Another area of research for me moving forward is how this plays out if a pregnant mother gives birth in the slums or the building. Is that affecting the child’s birth weight? Is water quality, sanitation, population density — have other health outcomes actually improved?

You could have gone anywhere for your PhD. Why Stanford?

The Knight Hennessy Scholars Program — that was a very compelling pull. Further, I think that being at Stanford gives you this additional advantage of having access to really positive technology like Virtual Reality — giving people exposure to a different world. We want people to demand better health care, so if they can experience what it feels like to walk into a hospital and a clean waiting room with a bench and a trash can, it can change their concept of what they deserve. I’m really excited to learn more about how new technologies can be applied in the slums to prompt people to stand up and demand better for themselves.

I took two women who work at Myna Mahila with me to the royal wedding. These are women who come from the slums — and what impressed them most was the cleanliness. They couldn’t believe how people could keep everything so clean. If more women see this through VR, they will start to think that this world should become theirs too. We have access to thousands of women and if we can teach menstrual hygiene education through this technology — well, as an entrepreneur, I get very excited about this. This is just one of the many technologies I want to learn more about and see if they can be applied in the slums.

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What did you make of Meghan Markle’s visit to the foundation in January 2017?

When she came to visit she told us she would support us in any way that she could. She kept her word. For us being chosen as one of seven charities for the royal wedding, I thought to myself, oh my God, she really thinks that we’re on to something that could actually change the world for many women. I feel like I have a huge responsibility to live up to their expectations. Now we have to keep our word to them and help women meet their true potential.

 

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