This "Meet Our Researchers" series showcases the incredible scholars at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). Through engaging interviews conducted by our undergraduate research assistants, we explore the journeys, passions, and insights of CDDRL’s faculty and researchers.

Can you talk to us a bit about your book, its research questions, context, and what inspired you to write it?

When I arrived at Stanford 10 years ago, I noticed a disconnect: while political science views strong political parties as essential for democratic success, public opinion often sees them as a problem. At CDDRL, I observed how many outside academia dislike or even distrust parties, despite their historical link to stability and democratic consolidation.

My book was inspired by this gap. It defends political parties, arguing that many of democracy’s challenges over the past 50 years stem from weaker parties—not stronger ones. My goal is to challenge the narrative that parties are the problem and show how strengthening them is key to addressing today’s democratic challenges.

Given that academic research often emphasizes the electoral functions of parties, should reforms focus on narrowing the scope of party roles to enhance public connection? How can parties prioritize their most responsive roles without deprioritizing critical functions like fundraising?

That's a critical question. Angelo Panebianco’s 1988 concept of the "electoral-professional party" highlights how professionalized parties prioritize winning elections over grassroots connections—a trend that has only intensified with today’s competitive elections and internal party factions.

Despite electoral success through strategies like PR and micro-targeting, parties struggle to meaningfully connect with voters, leading to dissatisfaction, distrust, and rising disillusionment. This indicates that a purely electoral focus is unsustainable.

Parties are unlikely to shift strategies without electoral losses. For instance, Democrats must rebuild trust and align policies with popular interests, while Republicans face the challenge of reconciling their traditional structure with the influence of the MAGA faction.

Both parties need to balance professionalization with public engagement by fostering grassroots connections and building sustainable support. Without recalibration, they risk further alienating voters and undermining trust in democratic institutions.
 

A lot of academic research tends to focus on how parties are becoming more polarized, but there are a lot of cleavages developing within the parties themselves. How do you think the Democrats and Republicans differing approaches to mobilization and organization will shape the future of partisanship in the U.S.? Do these differences create opportunities for a realignment of political coalitions, and how might this frame how we view partisanship in the future?

That’s a great question, and we’re already seeing a partisan realignment. Historically, Democrats and left-leaning parties represented the working class, but now they increasingly draw support from highly educated urban professionals. Meanwhile, right-leaning parties, traditionally backed by elites, are gaining support from the working class.

This shift, driven by education and economic divides, challenges both parties. Democrats must balance appealing to urban professionals and working-class voters, while Republicans struggle to reconcile small-government policies with the needs of a working-class base.

State and local parties may offer insights by experimenting with coalition-building strategies, such as Democrats succeeding in rural areas or centrist Republicans challenging MAGA influence. These cleavages create both opportunities and uncertainty, and how parties manage these divisions will shape the future of U.S. partisanship.

You mentioned that parties used to have a stronger social connection and representation role, which has now largely been replaced by social movements and NGOs. Should parties want to reclaim that function, how could they go about it? Would they need to replace NGOs, partner with them, or take another approach? How do you see this relationship evolving in the future?

As parties have become more professionalized, their community engagement has become episodic, focused mainly around elections. This has left advocacy and organizing to NGOs, civic groups, and social movements, many of which operate independently or are even anti-party.

To reclaim their social role, parties need to maintain a consistent presence in communities year-round, addressing local issues and collaborating with civic groups. NGOs and social movements, in turn, should see parties as potential partners rather than adversaries, working together to institutionalize their causes and foster democratic engagement.

This relationship should be a two-way street—parties investing in communities and NGOs collaborating within the party system. Together, they can rebuild connections and create a more integrated approach to representation and problem-solving.
 

Finally, what book would you recommend for students interested in a research career in your field?

I recommend Making Democracy Work by Robert Putnam. While Putnam is better known for Bowling Alone, this book initially captured my interest in political science. It compares governance in northern and southern Italy, introducing the concept of social capital as critical to local institutions' success. Putnam demonstrates how formal institutions and society are deeply interconnected, linking contemporary outcomes to historical legacies of conquest and political development.

Reading it in college while traveling through Italy was transformative—it brought the book to life and showed how political science connects institutions, societies, history, and economics. It’s a great introduction to the field, encouraging young researchers to tackle complex questions and piece together relationships to understand political challenges like democratic backsliding. Each piece of research adds to a larger puzzle, making this work so rewarding.

On November 8, 2024, a film screening of Instruments of a Beating Heart was held at Stanford University that was followed by a conversation between filmmaker Ema Ryan Yamazaki, Professor Kiyoteru Tsutsui, and Dr. Mariko Yang-Yoshihara. The film screening was sponsored by the Japan Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Erin Tsutsui shared her reflections of the film. Erin is a student at Gunn High School, Palo Alto, California.

The award-winning documentary short Instruments of a Beating Heart by Ema Ryan Yamazaki captures a core essence of Japaneseness—discipline in the name of contributing to the greater good for a harmonious society. Set in a regular elementary school in Tokyo, the film tracks a seemingly trivial event of a first grader’s performance in her school’s end-of-year ensemble. Through its portrayal of practice sessions, the film demonstrates how the Japanese school system instills Japan’s famous collectivist mindset from a young age with an emphasis on compliance and respect for others. Protagonist Ayame is reduced to tears when her school teacher points out her lack of practice in front of her peers. However, with encouragement from her mentors and a newfound motivation to practice her music, she nails her performance, thus bolstering her work ethic and penchant for a greater community good. This mindset makes Japan function so well as a society with its clean roads, low crime rates, and timely trains, but it also exerts pressure to conform and can lead to a loss of self-respect and individuality.

I grew up in the United States, where people commend individuality and free will and celebrate being different from others. I also attended Japanese elementary schools, though only for a couple of weeks each year, and noticed the stark contrast in the way students behave. I now realize that what I observed in those schools represent different social norms that govern each country. Japanese students mop the floors and serve the food to each other, carrying the responsibility of maintaining their space and learning the importance of combined efforts. In the meantime, American schools have custodians and lunch servers to shoulder all the burden while students tend to their own interests.

Personally, I remember my elementary school years in America to be freeing and unrestrained, where I learned the value of my uniqueness from the next person and celebrated our differences. These values continue to shape me today, as I hold a strong sense of selfhood and understand the power of my voice. On the other hand, during my brief time attending a Japanese school, I was struck by how disciplined my peers were, considering the tremendous amount of homework and tasks assigned to them. I remember working with my new friends to clean our classroom floors, serve lunch, and finish massive academic tasks in the classroom. At the beginning it was overwhelming and somewhat puzzling, but over time I found it rewarding knowing I contributed to the well-kept communal space and accomplished tasks with my young friends.

It is evident to me now, having experienced the contrasting school systems, that the cultural norms and ideals are integrated into the nations’ citizens early on. Though Ayame felt dejected in the beginning, her teachers’ scolding and nurturing helped improve her discipline, and she ultimately performed well. That discipline of hers, combined with that of her classmates, made the orchestra work. The instrumental orchestra is quite symbolic of the value of working together to create a masterpiece, as a slip-up from any one ensemble member can disrupt the balance of the ensemble. Writ large, Japanese society functions well because Japanese citizens exercise their discipline to work together toward a greater good. For all its other problems, such as overbearing societal pressures and suppression of individual expressions, Japan has much to offer to other societies in how to run a well-functioning society.

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Applications are now open for the Virtual East Asia Seminar for High School Teachers, a free professional development opportunity for California high school teachers who wish to enhance their teaching of East Asia. Offered by the Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE) and the National Consortium for Teaching about Asia (NCTA), this seminar will select 20 teachers to participate in four virtual sessions from March to May 2025.

The application form is now live at https://forms.gle/zCYyEaBFjyf4kAot5. The deadline to apply is February 28, 2025.

High school teachers in California are welcome to apply. Selected teachers will strengthen their content knowledge of East Asia by learning from experts in a series of private virtual seminars via Zoom on the following Tuesdays, 4:00 to 6:00pm Pacific Time: March 25, April 8, April 22, and May 6. Throughout the program, participants will explore and examine various aspects of East Asia, U.S.–Asia relations, and the Asian diaspora in the United States.

Participants will receive extensive teaching resources and an opportunity to discuss content and pedagogy in the classroom to help support their teaching of East Asia. Teachers who attend the four Zoom sessions, complete pre-assigned readings, and participate in group discussions will receive a $300 professional stipend and be eligible to receive three units of credit from Stanford Continuing Studies.

“We are excited to launch our virtual seminar on East Asia for high school teachers again in 2025,” said Naomi Funahashi, Manager of Teacher Professional Development at SPICE. “This initiative will provide an engaging platform featuring expert lectures, interactive discussions, and valuable curricular resources. Our goal is to equip educators with the tools and resources to explore the complex histories, societies, and cultures of East Asia and the diversity of the Asian American experience. Together, we hope to explore new insights and strategies that will enhance student learning and foster global awareness, while creating a vibrant community of teachers who are excited to learn and share fresh perspectives and innovative teaching strategies with one another.”

For more information about the Virtual SPICE/NCTA East Asia Seminar for High School Teachers, visit the program webpage. To apply, submit the online application by February 28, 2025.

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The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is delighted to share that Stanford Sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, director of APARC, and founding director of the Korea Program at APARC, is the recipient of the Korean American Achievement Award for his contributions to promoting Korean Studies, strengthening U.S.-Korea relations, and fostering transnational collaboration. The award was presented at the 122nd anniversary celebration of Korean American Day in San Francisco on January 11, 2025.

The Korean American Achievement Award recognizes individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the Korean American community’s academic, cultural, and civic development. Shin, a historical-comparative and political sociologist who is also a senior fellow at the Freeman Spoglli Institute for International Studies, has dedicated himself to addressing Korea’s contemporary challenges and bridging the United States and Korea. His work combines rigorous research with actionable policy insights, focusing on democracy, nationalism, societal development in Korea, migration, and international relations. He is also a sought-after media commentator on Korean affairs and U.S.-Korea ties.

Shin is the author and editor of 25 books and numerous articles. His most recent book is Korean Democracy in Crisis: The Threat of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization (Shorenstein APARC, 2022). Stanford University Press will publish his next book, The Four Talent Giants: National Strategies for Human Resource Development Across Japan, Australia, China, and India, in July 2025.

Under Shin’s leadership as its founding director, the Korea Program has become a renowned Stanford hub for interdisciplinary research and dialogue on contemporary Korea. The program celebrated its 20th anniversary in 2022, marking two decades of promoting education and exchange on Korea’s political, economic, and social evolution. Beyond academia, the program is a platform for fostering the next generation of leaders dedicated to advancing Korea’s future and strengthening Korea-U.S. ties.

Shin also spearheads the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), an initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia through interdisciplinary, policy-relevant, and comparative studies and publications.

The Korean American Day commemorates the arrival of the first Korean immigrants in the United States on January 13, 1903. The 122nd anniversary of Korean American Day was co-hosted by the Consulate General of the Republic of Korea in San Francisco, the San Francisco & Bay Area Korea Center, and Korean organizations in Northern California. The event was held at the San Francisco & Bay Area Korea Center.

Congratulations to Professor Shin on this well-deserved honor! It is a testament to his leadership and contributions that enrich the Korea Program and APARC’s mission to deepen the understanding of Asia and strengthen U.S.-Asia relations.

I first learned about Sayama City, located in Saitama Prefecture, through its Sayama-cha—one of the three most famous teas in Japan. A thoughtful gift from an owner of a manufacturing company in Sayama City introduced me to this delightful tea, which quickly became a regular part of my daily life. Sayama’s vibrant tea culture, enriched by its lush plantations and lively festivals, reflects the city’s deep pride in this heritage. Never did I imagine that, a few years later, I would be working with a high school in this remarkable city.

In the spring of 2024, SPICE launched the Stanford e-Bunri course in partnership with Seibu Gakuen Bunri Junior and Senior High School (Seibu Bunri) in Sayama City. Under the leadership of the newly appointed principal, Dr. Pedro Marques, Seibu Bunri is dedicated to nurturing young Japanese leaders to be ready to thrive on the global stage. Principal Marques envisions the school as more than just a place for academic excellence; he sees it as a dynamic environment where students actively engage in their learning and tackle complex challenges. I was thrilled to contribute to this vision by bringing SPICE’s educational philosophy to Seibu Bunri by underscoring the importance of diverse perspectives, critical thinking, and innovation. Principal Marques commented:

In today’s rapidly changing world, education must go beyond the classroom and traditional academic boundaries. It is essential to provide students with real-world experiences that connect them deeply to the communities they live in and serve, while fostering their understanding and bonding with international communities. Partnerships like the one we have established with Stanford University’s SPICE program are critical to achieving this vision. They not only expose our students to global perspectives but also challenge them to apply their learning in meaningful ways that can make a difference locally and globally.

Modern education needs to equip students with the tools to navigate complexities and to build bridges between cultures, ideas, and communities. By integrating diverse topics such as diversity, women’s rights, and entrepreneurship into our curriculum, we aim to nurture empathetic leaders who are grounded in their heritage yet inspired to innovate and collaborate on a global scale.

This partnership is not just a program; it is a cornerstone of our mission to redefine education at Seibu Bunri. Through such initiatives, we are building a resilient community of learners and leaders who are prepared to face the challenges of tomorrow with confidence and a strong sense of purpose.

In September, we successfully concluded our inaugural Stanford e-Bunri course. Building on discussions with the school staff to address critical challenges in shaping a more inclusive, equitable, and innovative future in Japan, Stanford e-Bunri focused on three key topics: diversity, women’s rights, and entrepreneurship. Over the course of four months, 30 students participated in the virtual classrooms, completed reading and writing assignments, engaged in online discussions, and delivered group presentations on these topics.

Diversity

During our diversity-focused lessons, students were treated to lectures from Dr. Gary Mukai and Dr. Ignacio Ornelaz Rodriguez from Stanford University, focusing on diversity in the United States. Dr. Mukai explored the history of Japanese American experiences during World War II, while Dr. Ornelas shed light on the lives of Mexican workers through an overview of the Bracero Program. These topics, which represent significant yet often overlooked aspects of American history, provided students with valuable perspectives not typically covered in Japanese curricula.

The word “empathy” deepened my understanding of diversity. Both lecturers mentioned that empathy is really important in this diverse society; I felt that empathy will be the key point to building good relationships with people with different cultures and backgrounds.
—Rina Nishimori

In the last session of the diversity module, students considered the lessons learned about diversity in the United States and applied them to the issues in a Japanese context. They conducted research and delivered group presentations on various aspects of diversity, including race, gender, LGBTQ+ rights, socioeconomic status, disability, and age-related issues. These presentations offered valuable insights into the complex and multifaceted challenges surrounding diversity in Japanese society, encouraging students to recognize that diversity is not just a global concept but also deeply significant and relevant within Japan.

Women’s Rights

During the lessons on women’s rights, students learned from Dr. Mariko Yang-Yoshihara from Stanford University, who discussed the current state of STEAM education and her initiative to empower girls with STEAM education in Japan. Another lecture was given by Ms. Yukiko Kimura, former Founder and CEO at Genic Lab Inc. and Senior Product Manager at Amazon Web Services, who shared her personal journey as a female entrepreneur in Japan, including the challenges she faced and the resilience required to overcome them. Both sessions offered students a deeper understanding of the systemic and cultural barriers women encounter, while inspiring students to think critically about ways to foster equity.

Ms. Kimura’s quote made a lasting impression on me: “It is important to become the person you want to be, not the person others want you to be.” I will try to be who I want to be from now on, because limiting myself by other people’s expectations may change my life.—Seiji Yamakawa

In the final session of the women’s rights module, students researched gender-related issues and challenges in Japan and proposed solutions in group presentations. This exercise encouraged students to reflect on how they, too, could contribute to fostering greater gender equality in their own communities and beyond.

Entrepreneurship

The entrepreneurship module featured engaging and inspiring lectures from Mr. Kenji Niwa, Co-founder and CEO at Firstcard Inc., and Ms. Min Zhu, Co-founder and CTO at EnChannel Medical, both of whom shared their personal journeys and deep insights into the entrepreneurial mindset. Through their stories and expertise, the students gained a deeper understanding of the mindset needed to overcome challenges and failures, embrace innovation, and cultivate resilience—qualities that are essential not only for entrepreneurial success but also for thriving in any endeavor.

The lectures showcased inspiring stories of people who overcame obstacles to achieve their goals, highlighting the importance of resilience and continuous learning. I also realized that success is deeply personal, shaped by individual values rather than societal expectations. —Sora Ikeda

To conclude the entrepreneurship module and the entire course, students identified pressing social issues in Japan and proposed innovative solutions in a business pitch format. Their presentations received feedback from guest observer Mr. Christopher Chang, Strategic Advisor at Beenext Capital Management, providing students with valuable insights into real-world problem-solving. This interactive session not only encouraged creativity and critical thinking but also provided students with a glimpse into the practicalities of turning ideas into actionable solutions.

My experience working with Seibu Bunri and the students of the Stanford e-Bunri course has been both inspiring and rewarding. Through thought-provoking lectures, discussions, and hands-on projects, the students not only expanded their understanding of critical global topics but also delved deeply into examining key issues within their own society. This process challenged them to reflect on how they can actively contribute to creating positive changes.

I wish to express my heartfelt gratitude to my collaborators at Seibu Bunri for their amazing support and partnership. They are Dr. Pedro Marques, Mr. Toshiyuki Shijima, Ms. Tamaki Komaeda, Mr. Hiroshi Inoo, Mr. Joshua Moon, Mr. Opaon Cleo, Mr. Toshikazu Ishizaka, and Ms. Kayo Imanaga. I would also like to thank our guest lecturers who generously dedicated their time and expertise to speak for the Stanford e-Bunri course. Their contributions played a crucial role in bringing the course content to life, offering students a unique perspective on the topics of diversity, women’s rights, and entrepreneurship. Last but not least, I’d like to congratulate the dedicated students who participated in the course.

In closing, I have learned that Sayama-cha—compared to other tea plants—is characterized by its thick leaves. This is because the region’s cold climate sometimes causes frost in winter, making plants sometimes unable to survive without thick leaves. I am excited to see how the students will apply the insights and skills learned from Stanford e-Bunri to become resilient leaders who can thrive on the global stage despite inevitable “weather changes” in their lives.

Stanford e-Bunri is one of SPICE’s local student programs in Japan.

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My grandparents, who were immigrants from Hiroshima, Japan, were migrant farm workers and sharecroppers in California from the early 20th century, and they lived in many towns in California. The only other state that they lived in was Arizona when they were incarcerated by the U.S. government from 1942 to the end of World War II in 1945 in what were once called “relocation centers” and now usually referred to in U.S. history textbooks as “internment camps” for people of Japanese descent primarily from the West Coast. My parents, who were born in California and thus U.S. citizens, were also incarcerated. Because Japanese immigrants and their descendants played such a vital role in agriculture in states like California, the incarceration of approximately 120,000 people of Japanese descent—along with the military draft—caused a severe labor shortage in agriculture. These were two of the key reasons for the establishment of the Bracero Program in 1942. SPICE Consultant Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez_, who teaches at Willow Glen High School, San Jose Unified School District, as well as at Stanford University, noted:

The Bracero Program was a series of laws that allowed the United States to recruit temporary guest workers (braceros, lit. “individuals who work with their arms”) from Mexico. As the United States entered World War II, its agriculture and railroad industries witnessed a shortage of laborers due to the U.S. military draft and the forced removal of Japanese Americans from the West Coast of the United States. The United States and Mexico entered into legal agreements that would ultimately be known as the Bracero Program, which operated from 1942 to 1964. Braceros worked throughout the United States, but the largest concentration of braceros was employed in California. There were an estimated 4.5 million contracts signed by braceros over the 22-year period. Today a large proportion of the Mexican American population can trace its heritage to former braceros.

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As a child of farm laborers in the 1950s and 1960s, I worked side-by-side with braceros. My neighbors in San Jose were braceros. Braceros were either paid by the hour or compensated by the amount of crops that they harvested, known as piecework. The braceros’ punch cards usually had at least double the punches that mine had. As a child, I felt more Mexican than Japanese American. Thus, it was particularly meaningful for me to facilitate an event called “Legacies of the Bracero Program, 1942–1964,” during which nine former braceros were recognized by SPICE, FSI, and the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS). The event took place at Stanford University on February 27, 2014; photo above courtesy Rod Searcey. The event was conceptualized by Ornelas and organized by Ornelas and SPICE Event Coordinator Sabrina Ishimatsu. Featured speakers were former FSI Director Professor Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, former CLAS Director Professor Rodolfo Dirzo (the son of a bracero), and Ornelas. The year, 2014, marked the 50th anniversary since the end of the Bracero Program.

Ornelas has spent the last 14 years conducting research and memorializing braceros. In addition to the event described above, he has conducted numerous public history events with colleagues and was instrumental in the naming a 17-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 101 as the Bracero Memorial Highway and Monterey County’s recognition of braceros. The naming of the Bracero Memorial Highway—and more recently the installation of a cross—are memorials to a tragic accident in Chualar, Monterey County, that killed 32 braceros on September 17, 1963. On June 2, 2020, Ornelas spoke about the history of the Bracero Program and shared reflections on “Visualizing the Essential: Mexicans in the U.S. Agricultural Workforce” in a webinar attended by educators nationwide. Since December 31, 2024 marks the 60th anniversary of the end of the Bracero Program, I highly recommend the use of the recorded webinar in high school classrooms and colleges in the United States and Mexico. The webinar recording, along with a classroom-friendly discussion guide, can be accessed here. The webinar was co-sponsored with CLAS and facilitated by SPICE Instructional Designer Jonas Edman. Also, a talk by Ornelas in Monterey County last year inspired the development of a mural that was commissioned by Monterey County and will be featured in Chualar.

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My mother, who worked with braceros since shortly after her release from the incarceration camp in Arizona in 1945 until 1964, died this year. While clearing out her home, I decided to keep the comal—a flat griddle—that the braceros who lived next to me used to make tortillas. The braceros gave the comal to my mother before their return to Mexico, and my mother had saved it because she recalled—as I do, as well—the many times that the braceros made tortillas for me. More importantly, she had the highest respect for their work ethic. I used to walk regularly to the bracero home to enjoy tortillas; photo above circa 1957. As a 10-year-old in 1964, I remember the sadness that I felt when I said “adios” to my bracero co-workers and neighbors.

I think it’s important to recognize the critical contributions of the braceros not only to the U.S. economy—especially during World War II—but also to their continued contributions to the richness of U.S. history and society broadly through their descendants like Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez.

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Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has reignited debates about the United States' role in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and democratic recession. The return of Trump to the White House will have profound implications for Asia. To assess the stakes for the region, APARC convened a panel of experts who weighed in on the potential risks and opportunities the second Trump administration’s policies may pose for Asian nations and how regional stakeholders look at their future with the United States. Another panel, organized by APARC’s China Program, focused on what’s ahead for U.S.-China relations.

High Stakes for the Asia-Pacific

APARC’s panel, The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections: High Stakes for Asia, examined how the return of Trump’s political ideology and the macroeconomic effects of his foreign policy will affect Asia.

“We are witnessing the solidification of Trumpism as an influential political ideology,” stated APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin at the opening of the discussion, “one that has begun to transcend traditional  American conservatism. Trumpism — marked by a blend of economic nationalism, nativism, and a strongman approach to leadership —could have a huge impact not only in American society but also on the liberal global order.”

According to Shin, Trump’s policies, particularly his focus on unilateralism and economic self-interest, could significantly alter the political and economic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, argued that Trump’s victory was no longer an anomaly but part of a larger trend of working-class voters shifting allegiance from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Fukuyama expressed concerns about Trump’s aggressive economic policies, including imposing broad tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, and warned that such policies could result in inflation, trade tensions, and long-term economic instability. In addition, he asserted that Trump’s reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts could undermine the United States’ commitments to security alliances, particularly in Asia.

APARC Deputy Director and Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui emphasized the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s policies, noting that Trump’s "America First" approach could further erode the international liberal order. He suggested that Japan would face significant challenges navigating the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policies. According to Tsutsui, “There might be greater pressure to line up with the United States in dealing with China economically, which would  put a great deal of strain on the Japanese economy.” Such an alignment might also muddle Japan’s own diplomatic and security interests.

Gita Wirjawan, a visiting scholar with Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy and former visiting scholar at APARC, focused on the stakes for Southeast Asia. Wirjawan argued that Trump’s economic policies, such as protectionism and prioritizing economic growth over democratic principles, could embolden right-wing populist movements in Southeast Asia. He suggested that parts of Southeast Asia could be a natural beneficiary of a reallocation of financial capital from the U.S. as companies diversify supply chains by establishing operations outside China in response to Trump’s planned tariffs. Yet, growing economic inequality in Southeast Asia, particularly in urban areas, could fuel the rise of similar nationalist policies, undermining efforts to promote inclusive, democratic development.

Shin highlighted the challenges South Korea might face under a second Trump presidency. Trump will likely demand higher defense payments from South Korea, potentially straining the U.S.-ROK alliance. This could put President Yoon in a tough spot, especially as trilateral U.S.-Japan-Korea cooperation has been progressing well but faces uncertainty. Economically, South Korean firms may struggle if U.S. policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are rolled back, as subsidies were crucial for their investments in the U.S. On North Korea, Shin noted that Trump may resume summit diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, leaving South Korea sidelined and potentially sparking an arms race in Northeast Asia. 

The panelists all emphasized that Asia, with its diverse political landscapes, would need to navigate a new era of economic nationalism and geopolitical unpredictability, with potential challenges to economic stability and democratic norms.

A Focus on U.S.-China Relations 

The second panel, "Crossroads of Power: U.S.-China Relations in a New Administration," focused specifically on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations in the wake of the election. Moderated by APARC China Program Director Jean Oi, the discussion featured Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, and Peking University's Yu Tiejun, the APARC's China Policy Fellow during all 2024. The panelists analyzed the potential trade, security, and diplomacy shifts between the two global superpowers, particularly in light of D.C.’s bipartisan consensus on China. 

Central to the discussion was the continuity of U.S. policy toward China under the first Trump administration and the Biden administration. Examples of this continuity included recent tariff increases on Chinese imports, a new U.S. Department of the Treasury program to screen U.S. outbound foreign investments in key sectors, and tighter export controls on critical technologies like quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. The panelists explored the economic and strategic ramifications, noting that these policies could disrupt existing trade patterns. 

Another area of concern was China’s uneven implementation of the 2020 Phase One  trade deal it negotiated with the U.S., in which China had committed to domestic reforms and $200 billion of additional U.S. imports. This failure could buttress the new administration’s plan to increase tariffs, complicating diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing. Fingar noted that while China has made efforts to diversify its supply chains, these changes might not be enough to shield it from the effects of U.S. economic policies, which could include escalating tariffs or additional restrictions on Chinese exports. 

The conversation also touched on broader geopolitical considerations, particularly concerning China’s role in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The panelists discussed the potential for cooperation or de-escalation in U.S.-China relations, with China’s positioning on the war serving as both a point of contention and a possible avenue for diplomatic engagement. 

Underscoring the deepening complexities in U.S.-China relations post-election, the panelists highlighted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, particularly regarding the role of people-to-people exchanges in fostering mutual understanding.

Both events emphasized the multifaceted consequences of Trump’s return to power for Asia and the global international order. While the discussions highlighted the challenges posed by the rise of economic nationalism, trade tensions, and shifting security priorities, they also pointed to potential areas of cooperation and the evolving dynamics of global diplomacy.

In the Media

From Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro:

What a Second Trump Term Means for the World
OnPoint – WBUR, Nov 12 (interview)

Race to the White House: How the US Election Will Impact Foreign Policy
UBS Circle One, October 23 (interview)

From Visiting Scholar Michael Beeman:

On Korea-U.S. Economic Cooperation in the Era of Walking Out
Yonhap News, Nov 20 (featured)

Trump Looking for Trade 'Reset' with Most Countries: Ex-USTR Official
Nikkei, Nov 16 (interview)

How Southeast Asia Can Weather the Trump Trade Typhoon
The Economist, Nov 14 (quoted)