Ali Çarkoğlu, a political scientist specializing in elections, voting behavior, and Turkish politics, presented an analysis of Turkey's electoral dynamics from 1990 to 2023 at a CDDRL research seminar. His study focused on the interplay between social cleavages, democratic backsliding, and their impact on political competition and voter behavior. Using data from the World Values Survey and Turkish Election Studies, Çarkoğlu explored the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the enduring influence of cultural divides on Turkey’s political landscape.

Central to his analysis was the "alla Turca kulturkampf," a concept describing the deep-rooted center-periphery divide in Turkish politics. This cleavage reflects a cultural conflict between two contrasting societal visions: the Kemalist ideal of secularism, gender equality, and scientific rationalism versus the pro-Islamist focus on tradition, religion, and family values. Despite the AKP’s success in bringing peripheral groups into the state’s institutional core, these cultural divides persist as a primary source of polarization. Çarkoğlu argued that this polarization has entrenched partisan loyalty and overshadowed other factors in shaping voter behavior.

A key theme of the presentation was Turkey's democratic backsliding, characterized by the erosion of democratic institutions, curtailment of civil liberties, and electoral manipulation. Çarkoğlu noted that Turkey ranks 148th on the liberal democracy index, illustrating its significant democratic decline. He linked these trends to heightened polarization, which weakens opposition forces and reduces the influence of traditional electoral cleavages. Instead of fostering competitive elections, the political landscape is increasingly dominated by entrenched party loyalties and identity-driven politics.

The presentation also highlighted the significant social and economic changes Turkey has undergone since 1990. Urbanization surged from 61% in 1992 to 78% in 2024, while agriculture’s share of employment dropped from 45% to 17%. Economic growth has raised per capita income from $2,000 to $10,000, but inequality remains pervasive, and safety nets are inadequate. Women’s labor force participation remains low at 35%, and educational disparities persist. Household sizes have decreased, and the dependency ratio has dropped from 65 to 47 over 30 years. However, these societal shifts have had limited political consequences, as electoral dynamics remain anchored in longstanding cultural cleavages.

Çarkoğlu’s findings indicated that Turkey’s party system has remained "frozen" for the past three decades. While socio-demographic factors play a declining role in explaining voter behavior, attitudinal variables such as group identity and cultural values have gained prominence. This shift reflects how polarization has solidified, with partisan loyalty reinforcing competitive authoritarianism.

Çarkoğlu emphasized that the weakening of electoral cleavages has facilitated democratic backsliding by reducing opposition effectiveness and enabling strategic manipulation. Despite rapid social change, entrenched cultural divides and polarization have prevented political transformation. His research underscores the importance of addressing institutional decline, polarization, and social inequality to combat democratic erosion. Turkey’s experience offers critical lessons for other unconsolidated democracies facing similar challenges.

The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) is pleased to share that Ayça Alemdaroğlu, a research scholar and associate director of CDDRL’s Program on Turkey, has been appointed a Global Fellow at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO).

PRIO is a world-leading peace research organization that conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups, and people, seeking to understand the processes that bring societies together or split them apart. Researchers explore how conflicts erupt and how they can be resolved, investigate how different kinds of violence affect people, and examine how societies tackle crises and the threat of crises. They document general trends, seek to understand processes, and inform concrete responses.

PRIO Global Fellows are academics with strong scholarly records and a commitment to the research agenda on peace and conflict. They all have their main positions elsewhere but work closely with PRIO researchers and regularly spend time in Oslo. Following nomination by PRIO staff, fellowships are awarded to scholars from all over the world, of different seniority levels,, and with diverse methodological and analytical perspectives.

Ayça specializes in social and political change in the Middle East, focusing on Turkey's domestic politics and international relations. Her research examines the interplay between authoritarianism, youth politics, and public policy. Her scholarship extends into various other domains, including nationalism, eugenics, urban segregation, and the impacts of neoliberalism on education. She is the co-editor of Kurds in Dark Times: New Perspectives on Violence and Resistance (University of Syracuse Press, 2023). Prior to her current role at Stanford, she was an Assistant Professor of Research in Sociology at Northwestern University and served as a postdoctoral fellow and lecturer at Stanford. She earned her Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge and actively contributes to academic discussions through her editorial roles.