Story last updated December 15, 2024

On December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol abruptly declared martial law in a dramatic response to the political deadlock that has stymied his tenure, only to rescind the decision six hours later, sparking widespread protests and plunging the nation — one of the United States’ closest allies — into turmoil.

What were Yoon’s motivations? What happens now? What are the implications of the dramatic events for South Korea’s democracy?

Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and the director of APARC and its Korea Program, has written extensively about South Korea’s democratic decay and is the co-editor of the volume "South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis: The Threats of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization" (Shorenstein APARC, 2022). This news roundup highlights Shin's commentary on Korea's political turmoil, published in national and international media. We update it as this developing story unfolds.

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Elected in 2022 by a razor-thin margin of less than one percentage point over his left-wing rival, Yoon entered office as a political outsider with an unyielding approach to leadership. “He may have been a successful prosecutor, but he entered politics without much preparation,” Shin told the Financial Times. “He is completely out of touch if he thought he could run the country through martial law.”

Yoon came into power in a toxic political environment, where democratic norms have become increasingly rare. Korean politics, shaped by a winner-take-all electoral system and a dominant presidency, has further heightened the tensions between the executive and legislative branches, writes Shin in a Stanford University Press blog post, explaining the historical and sociopolitical contexts of Yoon’s martial law declaration and its aftermath.

Yoon has been a “lame duck” president since the opposition Democratic Party (DP) secured a landslide victory in the April 2024 National Assembly elections. His audacious martial law declaration was “a surprising last-ditch move to grab political power" in the face of steadily falling approval ratings, Shin told AFP and Vox. But this move “is basically political suicide” that “will only fasten the demise of his political career," Shin added.

On the morning following his short-lived martial law bid, members of the DP submitted a motion to impeach Yoon. “He really has two options: resign or face impeachment,” Shin said in an interview with BBC Newsday. Yoon has lost the public trust, legitimacy, and even his mandate to rule the country. “He should resign, it's better for him and the country, but I doubt that he will,” noted Shin, predicting a political ruckus over impeachment during the coming days and weeks. Watch the complete interview below:

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Should Korean citizens be worried about the future of their democracy? Yes and no, explained Shin in an interview on NPR’s "All Things Considered." In the short term, there will likely be significant political instability and societal uncertainty, with potential economic repercussions, he said. In the long run, however, Shin believes that Korea’s strong democratic institutions will ensure its democracy will prevail. He emphasized that he remains optimistic and encouraged by how swiftly and decisively the martial law attempt failed. Listen to the conversation:

Martial law was last imposed in South Korea in 1980 by Chun Doon Whan, a general who seized power through a coup after the 1979 assassination of President Park Chung Hee — himself a former general who had also used martial law to crack down on student-led dissent during his rule. Chun brutally suppressed civilian protests in the city of Kwangju in May 1980. Many Korean people, including Shin, who was a student at the time, still hold painful memories of this violent episode in Korean history. Shin reflected on that period in an interview on WBUR’s OnPoint program (listen starting 35:24).

But the situation today is very different from when South Korea was fighting against dictatorship, Shin told The Washington Post. “Democracy was not given to the Korean people. It was hard fought and won,” he said. “I believe Korean democracy will come out stronger after this.”

This week’s turn of events has highlighted “both the vulnerabilities and resilience of South Korean democracy”, Shin told the Financial Times. It has exposed challenges and problems including polarization, potential executive overreach, and weakened public trust, "but the swift rejection of martial law by the National Assembly and public outcry demonstrated strong institutional checks, civic engagement, and the opportunity to reinforce democratic safeguards.”

Yoon justified the imposition of martial law as a measure to protect South Korea from the threats of North Korea's communist threat and prevent gridlock by “anti-state” forces, referring to the DP, his liberal opposition.

“I am sure North Korea will be watching the situation very closely and may issue a statement condemning the martial law [...] Other than that, I don't think they will take any immediate action,” Shin told Newsweek in the hours before Yoon reversed course, predicting that Yoon’s ploy would be short-lived as it would face fierce national resistance.

The United States, which has around 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, was unaware of Yoon's intention to declare martial law. The White House voiced relief over Yoon’s decision to rescind his martial law bid, emphasizing that the United States reaffirms its “support for the people of Korea and the U.S.-ROK alliance based on shared principles of democracy and the rule of law.” Shin believes the alliance is resilient enough to weather Korea’s political turmoil. "I don't think the situation will affect the alliance that much," he remarked on NPR’s "All Things Considered."

A Tumultuous Road Ahead — And Lessons for Democracies Worldwide

What's next for South Korea after the martial law crisis? If Yoon does not resign, then the main opposition party will pursue impeachment. The National Assembly must vote on the motion within 72 hours after it is introduced, and the Constitutional Court has 180 days to make a ruling. A snap election would follow if impeachment is upheld, explains Shin.

The conservative People Power Party (PPP) will need to evaluate carefully the political landscape and their election prospects, and might not necessarily abandon President Yoon. “There is a difference between voting to stop martial law and voting in favor of an impeachment that would likely guarantee an opposition victory in the snap election to follow,” Shin told TIME Magazine.

While PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, once Yoon's protégé, has urged the president to resign, citing “significant risks” to the nation, impeachment poses a tough choice for the ruling party, which remains haunted by the 2017 impeachment of Park Geun Hye, Shin explains in the Journal of Democracy. Conservative leaders lost the snap election following Park's removal and faced intense political retribution under her liberal successor, Moon Jae In. History could repeat itself now, although DP opposition leader Lee Jae Myung is facing trial on multiple criminal charges. "This alternative to Yoon does not appear as promising for Korean democracy as one would hope," Shin notes.

Yoon's doomed power grab is "a stern warning to the world: People should take democratic backsliding in their countries seriously," Shin concludes his Journal of Democracy essay. "If such an event can happen in Korea — an advanced nation long regarded as an exemplary case of the 'third wave' of democratization — then it can happen anywhere that is experiencing similar democratic challenges. This is a critical lesson for democracies worldwide."

As Shin expected, President Yoon avoided impeachment on Saturday, December 7, after PPP lawmakers boycotted a parliamentary vote on the impeachment motion proposed by opposition parties, despite massive public protests outside the National Assembly.

The PPP defended its decision, stating it acted to prevent "severe division and chaos" and pledged to address the crisis "responsibly." PPP leader Han Dong-hoon claimed Yoon had agreed to step down and would be "effectively excluded from his duties," with the prime minister and party taking over governance in the interim.

“I don't think Korean people have the patience to wait for this plan to work out,” said Shin in a BBC News interview. He explained that the ruling PPP is trying to buy time, but Yoon will have to go sooner or later. The opposition parties have declared their intent to file an impeachment motion against Yoon every week until it is passed. With growing public anger and mounting demonstrations, pressure on the ruling party is expected to intensify, Shin said. Watch:

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As Yoon clung to power, the National Assembly passed a bill on December 10 mandating a special counsel to investigate insurrection charges against him. The ruling party "might delay the demise of Yoon's tenure but won't prevent it — its road will be messier," Shin told AFP.

Shin is concerned that this crisis in political leadership and the resulting leadership vacuum spell trouble for South Korea on the world stage. The nation already faces mounting foreign policy challenges with President-elect Trump’s anticipated policies and a new prime minister in Japan. It’s unclear how it can effectively navigate critical issues involving the United States, Japan, North Korea, and China amidst such instability, Shin told BBC News.

Winds of Change

On December 14, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach Yoon, passing the motion 204-85 (including a dozen ruling party members) as jubilant crowds celebrated a triumph for the country’s democracy. Yoon's presidential duties were suspended, and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will take over as acting president. The Constitutional Court now has 180 days to decide whether to remove Yoon from office or reinstate him. If he is removed, a national election to select his successor must be held within 60 days.

Shin believes the likelihood the Constitutional Court will overturn the impeachment is low, as Yoon’s constitutional violations appear quite clear. “Certainly, Yoon will go down in Korean history as a very poor political leader,” he remarked in the latest interview with BBC News, several hours after the impeachment vote.

The day after the passage of the impeachment bill, Han Dong-hoon announced his resignation as leader of the ruling People Power party, saying his position had become untenable after he backed Yoon’s impeachment. The PPP is in turmoil, attempting to buy time to be better prepared for the potential snap election that could follow than it was in the 2017 scenario, Shin explained, expressing skepticism about the PPP’s chances of success. Watch the interview:

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The crisis offers Korean people an opportunity to reflect on their tumultuous democratic journey and push for necessary reforms stymied by political calculations, Shin writes on Stanford University Press’ blog. He explains that addressing the negative consequences of the nation’s extremely powerful presidency and the winner-take-all voting system requires constitutional and electoral reforms.

“Korea’s political culture must also change,” Shin emphasizes. “Demonizing opponents, divisive identity politics, and insular political fandoms and populism have no place in a healthy democracy.”

Additional Media Commentary
 

• The Economist
• Politiken (Danish) 
• Il Messaggero (Italian)
• Caixin Weekly (Chinese)
• Voice of America (Korean)
• Korean Media
  • Fortune Korea
  • The Value News (in Korean)
  • Edaily News (here and here) 

Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has reignited debates about the United States' role in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and democratic recession. The return of Trump to the White House will have profound implications for Asia. To assess the stakes for the region, APARC convened a panel of experts who weighed in on the potential risks and opportunities the second Trump administration’s policies may pose for Asian nations and how regional stakeholders look at their future with the United States. Another panel, organized by APARC’s China Program, focused on what’s ahead for U.S.-China relations.

High Stakes for the Asia-Pacific

APARC’s panel, The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections: High Stakes for Asia, examined how the return of Trump’s political ideology and the macroeconomic effects of his foreign policy will affect Asia.

“We are witnessing the solidification of Trumpism as an influential political ideology,” stated APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin at the opening of the discussion, “one that has begun to transcend traditional  American conservatism. Trumpism — marked by a blend of economic nationalism, nativism, and a strongman approach to leadership —could have a huge impact not only in American society but also on the liberal global order.”

According to Shin, Trump’s policies, particularly his focus on unilateralism and economic self-interest, could significantly alter the political and economic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, argued that Trump’s victory was no longer an anomaly but part of a larger trend of working-class voters shifting allegiance from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Fukuyama expressed concerns about Trump’s aggressive economic policies, including imposing broad tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, and warned that such policies could result in inflation, trade tensions, and long-term economic instability. In addition, he asserted that Trump’s reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts could undermine the United States’ commitments to security alliances, particularly in Asia.

APARC Deputy Director and Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui emphasized the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s policies, noting that Trump’s "America First" approach could further erode the international liberal order. He suggested that Japan would face significant challenges navigating the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policies. According to Tsutsui, “There might be greater pressure to line up with the United States in dealing with China economically, which would  put a great deal of strain on the Japanese economy.” Such an alignment might also muddle Japan’s own diplomatic and security interests.

Gita Wirjawan, a visiting scholar with Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy and former visiting scholar at APARC, focused on the stakes for Southeast Asia. Wirjawan argued that Trump’s economic policies, such as protectionism and prioritizing economic growth over democratic principles, could embolden right-wing populist movements in Southeast Asia. He suggested that parts of Southeast Asia could be a natural beneficiary of a reallocation of financial capital from the U.S. as companies diversify supply chains by establishing operations outside China in response to Trump’s planned tariffs. Yet, growing economic inequality in Southeast Asia, particularly in urban areas, could fuel the rise of similar nationalist policies, undermining efforts to promote inclusive, democratic development.

Shin highlighted the challenges South Korea might face under a second Trump presidency. Trump will likely demand higher defense payments from South Korea, potentially straining the U.S.-ROK alliance. This could put President Yoon in a tough spot, especially as trilateral U.S.-Japan-Korea cooperation has been progressing well but faces uncertainty. Economically, South Korean firms may struggle if U.S. policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are rolled back, as subsidies were crucial for their investments in the U.S. On North Korea, Shin noted that Trump may resume summit diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, leaving South Korea sidelined and potentially sparking an arms race in Northeast Asia. 

The panelists all emphasized that Asia, with its diverse political landscapes, would need to navigate a new era of economic nationalism and geopolitical unpredictability, with potential challenges to economic stability and democratic norms.

A Focus on U.S.-China Relations 

The second panel, "Crossroads of Power: U.S.-China Relations in a New Administration," focused specifically on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations in the wake of the election. Moderated by APARC China Program Director Jean Oi, the discussion featured Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, and Peking University's Yu Tiejun, the APARC's China Policy Fellow during all 2024. The panelists analyzed the potential trade, security, and diplomacy shifts between the two global superpowers, particularly in light of D.C.’s bipartisan consensus on China. 

Central to the discussion was the continuity of U.S. policy toward China under the first Trump administration and the Biden administration. Examples of this continuity included recent tariff increases on Chinese imports, a new U.S. Department of the Treasury program to screen U.S. outbound foreign investments in key sectors, and tighter export controls on critical technologies like quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. The panelists explored the economic and strategic ramifications, noting that these policies could disrupt existing trade patterns. 

Another area of concern was China’s uneven implementation of the 2020 Phase One  trade deal it negotiated with the U.S., in which China had committed to domestic reforms and $200 billion of additional U.S. imports. This failure could buttress the new administration’s plan to increase tariffs, complicating diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing. Fingar noted that while China has made efforts to diversify its supply chains, these changes might not be enough to shield it from the effects of U.S. economic policies, which could include escalating tariffs or additional restrictions on Chinese exports. 

The conversation also touched on broader geopolitical considerations, particularly concerning China’s role in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The panelists discussed the potential for cooperation or de-escalation in U.S.-China relations, with China’s positioning on the war serving as both a point of contention and a possible avenue for diplomatic engagement. 

Underscoring the deepening complexities in U.S.-China relations post-election, the panelists highlighted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, particularly regarding the role of people-to-people exchanges in fostering mutual understanding.

Both events emphasized the multifaceted consequences of Trump’s return to power for Asia and the global international order. While the discussions highlighted the challenges posed by the rise of economic nationalism, trade tensions, and shifting security priorities, they also pointed to potential areas of cooperation and the evolving dynamics of global diplomacy.

In the Media

From Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro:

What a Second Trump Term Means for the World
OnPoint – WBUR, Nov 12 (interview)

Race to the White House: How the US Election Will Impact Foreign Policy
UBS Circle One, October 23 (interview)

From Visiting Scholar Michael Beeman:

On Korea-U.S. Economic Cooperation in the Era of Walking Out
Yonhap News, Nov 20 (featured)

Trump Looking for Trade 'Reset' with Most Countries: Ex-USTR Official
Nikkei, Nov 16 (interview)

How Southeast Asia Can Weather the Trump Trade Typhoon
The Economist, Nov 14 (quoted)