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Turkey-US relations have been going through the most turbulent episode since 2016. While occasional divergence of opinion between partners is natural, the frequency and the intensity of such disagreements have sharply increased over time, creating major trust issues between the allies. This talk will address the main causes behind the rift between Turkey and the US,  and warning against the path-dependent foreign policy behavior, will make specific policy recommendations to manage the bilateral tensions.
 

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​Oya Dursun-Özkanca
Oya Dursun-Özkanca is the Endowed Chair of International Studies Professor of Political Science at Elizabethtown College and the author of Turkey–West Relations: The Politics of Intra-alliance Opposition (Cambridge University Press 2019), and The Nexus Between Security Sector Reform/Governance and Sustainable Development Goal-16: An Examination of Conceptual Linkages and Policy Recommendations (The Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance 2021). Her edited volumes include The European Union as an Actor in Security Sector Reform (Routledge, 2014) and External Interventions in Civil Wars (with Stefan Wolff, Routledge, 2014).

In Fall 2021, she is a visiting scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. 

Online via Zoom

Oya Dursun-Özkanca Professor Endowed Chair of International Studies and Professor of Political Science Elizabethtown College
Seminars
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For winter quarter 2022, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. 

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About the Event: Rather than assuming convergence in countries' military capabilities, this seminar examines why and how countries decide to develop different weapon capabilities within similar domains of warfare. To answer these questions, this seminar will explore the role of ideas and institutional bargaining in shaping decisions about military technology. This talk will subsequently apply the theory to the development of missile defense from the 1980s until today.

 

About the Speaker: Sanne Verschuren is a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. Her research interests include the development of military technology, shifts in military strategy and tactics, and the role of ideas and norms therein. Her book project examines why and how countries decide to procure different weapon capabilities within similar military domains, particularly the development of missile defense (1980s-today), air power (1920s-1930s), and aircraft carriers (1950s-1960s). At CISAC, Sanne conducts research on the intersection between nuclear and conventional weapons. Sanne received her Ph.D. in Political Science from Brown University in August 2021.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. 

Seminars
Governance
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This event is virtual only. This event will not be held in person.

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Dr. Gil Baram received her Ph.D. from Tel Aviv University’s School of Political Science, Government and International Relations, and was the recipient of the Fulbright postdoctoral fellowship. Her postdoctoral research at CISAC focuses on national decision-making during cyber conflict. Dr. Baram explores the shift in the longstanding convention of silence on cyber conflict as a covert practice. She studies the reasons state actors are increasingly addressing cyber intrusions publicly despite their covert nature, and uses new data and combined methods to investigate when and under what circumstances they are likely to decide various attribution strategies.

Previously, Dr. Baram has held fellow positions with the Centre of Excellence for National Security at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and the Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Center at Tel Aviv University and served as Head of Research at the Israeli think tank Yuval Ne'eman workshop for Science, Technology and Security. She holds an M.A. (Magna Cum Laude) in Security Studies from Tel Aviv University.

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Seminars
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For fall quarter 2021, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. 

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(Stanford faculty, visiting scholars, staff, fellows, and students only)

                                                                                           

 

Seminar Recording

About the Event: The technology controlling United States nuclear weapons predates the Internet. Updating the technology for the digital era is necessary, but it comes with the risk that anything digital can be hacked. Moreover, using new systems for both nuclear and non-nuclear operations will lead to levels of nuclear risk hardly imagined before. This book is the first to confront these risks comprehensively.

With Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons, Herbert Lin provides a clear-eyed breakdown of the cyber risks to the U.S. nuclear enterprise. Featuring a series of scenarios that clarify the intersection of cyber and nuclear risk, this book guides readers through a little-understood element of the risk profile that government decision-makers should be anticipating. What might have happened if the Cuban Missile Crisis took place in the age of Twitter, with unvetted information swirling around? What if an adversary announced that malware had compromised nuclear systems, clouding the confidence of nuclear decision-makers?

Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons, the first book to consider cyber risks across the entire nuclear enterprise, concludes with crucial advice on how government can manage the tensions between new nuclear capabilities and increasing cyber risk. This is an invaluable handbook for those ready to confront the unique challenges of cyber nuclear risk.

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About the Speaker: Since 2014, Herb Lin has been senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford University.  He also served as a professional staff member and staff scientist for the House Armed Services Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio included defense policy and arms control issues. He received his doctorate in physics from MIT.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. 

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C236
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

650-497-8600
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Senior Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution
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Dr. Herb Lin is senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford University.  His research interests relate broadly to policy-related dimensions of cybersecurity and cyberspace, and he is particularly interested in the use of offensive operations in cyberspace as instruments of national policy and in the security dimensions of information warfare and influence operations on national security.  In addition to his positions at Stanford University, he is Chief Scientist, Emeritus for the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies, where he served from 1990 through 2014 as study director of major projects on public policy and information technology, and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar and Senior Fellow in Cybersecurity (not in residence) at the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies in the School for International and Public Affairs at Columbia University; and a member of the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. In 2016, he served on President Obama’s Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity.  Prior to his NRC service, he was a professional staff member and staff scientist for the House Armed Services Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio included defense policy and arms control issues. He received his doctorate in physics from MIT.

Avocationally, he is a longtime folk and swing dancer and a lousy magician. Apart from his work on cyberspace and cybersecurity, he is published in cognitive science, science education, biophysics, and arms control and defense policy. He also consults on K-12 math and science education.

Seminars
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*For fall quarter 2021, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

 

REGISTRATION

 

Seminar Recording

About the Event: Natural gas prices in Europe have spiked in recent weeks. In the meantime, Russia is pressing for early certification of the newly-completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would increase capacity for moving gas from Russia to Europe. How serious is the gas situation in Europe, and how might Nord Stream 2 affect it? What motivates Moscow's push to get the new pipeline in operation? What policy should the U.S. government pursue on these questions? Ambassador Daniel Fried of the Atlantic Council and Edward Chow of Center for Strategic and International Studies will address these issues on November 17.

 

About the Speakers: In the course of his forty-year Foreign Service career, Ambassador Fried played a key role in designing and implementing American policy in Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. As special assistant and NSC senior director for Presidents Clinton and Bush, ambassador to Poland, and assistant secretary of state for Europe (2005-09), Ambassador Fried crafted the policy of NATO enlargement to Central European nations and, in parallel, NATO-Russia relations, thus advancing the goal of Europe whole, free, and at peace. During those years, the West’s community of democracy and security grew in Europe. Ambassador Fried helped lead the West’s response to Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine starting in 2014: as State Department coordinator for sanctions policy, he crafted US sanctions against Russia, the largest US sanctions program to date, and negotiated the imposition of similar sanctions by Europe, Canada, Japan, and Australia.   

 

Edward C. Chow is an international energy expert with 45 years of industry experience working in Asia, Middle East, Africa, South America, Europe, Russia, Black Sea and Caspian regions. He negotiated successfully multibillion-dollar oil and gas agreements and specializes in investments in emerging economies. He developed government policy and business strategy while advising governments, international financial institutions, major oil companies, and leading multinational corporations. He worked for more than 20 years at Chevron Corporation in headquarter and overseas assignments. He taught at Georgetown and George Washington universities and served as visiting professor at Ohio University and Fudan University in Shanghai. He is a senior associate in the Center for Strategic and International Studies and affiliate faculty at George Mason University.

Virtual Only. This event will not be held in person.

Daniel Fried ormer US Ambassador to Poland; Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow Atlantic Council
Edward C. Chow Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Seminars
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David Kaye event, the global spyware crisis and how to stop it

Join us November 2nd from 12 PM - 1 PM PT for “The Global Spyware Crisis and How to Stop It” featuring David Kaye, professor of law at University of California, Irvine, and moderated by Kelly Born, director of the Cyber Initiative at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. This seminar series is organized by the Cyber Policy Center’s Program on Democracy and the Internet and the Hewlett Foundation’s Cyber Initiative. 

The private surveillance (or spyware) industry has thrived with low levels of transparency and public scrutiny and weak controls on transfers of technology. Governments offer limited information on the use of surveillance products and regulations of private surveillance companies. Meanwhile, these tools – most famously but not exclusively the Pegasus malware of the Israeli NSO Group – are increasingly used against journalists, opposition figures, those in dissent, and others. Public reporting – particularly energized by release of the Pegasus Project reporting by the Forbidden Stories consortium in the summer of 2021 – has begun to generate increasing global concern, and yet policy and law lag far behind. This presentation will focus on a human rights-based legal and policy framework for the regulation and accountability of, as well as transparency within, the private surveillance industry.

Speaker Profile:

David Kaye is a professor of law at the University of California, Irvine, director of its International Justice Clinic, and co-director of the Center on Fair Elections and Free Speech. From 2014 – 2020 he served as the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression. Author of Speech Police: The Global Struggle to Govern the Internet (2019), he is currently Independent Chair of the Board of the Global Network Initiative and a Trustee of ARTICLE 19.

 

David Kaye Professor of Law, UC Irvine
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Stephen Buono
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Look up! The ghosts of space weapons past have once again darkened our cosmic doorway. Recently Britain’s Financial Times reported that China flight-tested a new breed of space weapon when it launched a massive “Long March” rocket tipped with a nuclear-capable, hypersonic glider. The missile briefly entered orbit before descending on its target, which it missed by roughly two dozen miles. The report suggested that the test was evidence that China has “made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and [is] far more advanced than US officials realised.”

Read the rest at The Washington Post

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China flight-tested a new breed of space weapon when it launched a massive “Long March” rocket tipped with a nuclear-capable, hypersonic glider. But history tells us why the test isn’t a cause for panic.

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On Friday, October 29th, 2021 at 10am PT, The World House Global Network is honored to have Gerald and Marita Grudzen, founders of Global Ministries University who will discuss: "A Case Study in the Value of Interfaith Education for building Global Partnerships."
 

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		The World House Global Network  - Gerald and Marita Grudzen image

About Gerald Grudzen:

Gerald Grudzen, Ph.D. was one of the founders of Global Ministries University in 2001 shortly after the tragedy of 9/11. Grudzen has served as President of Global Ministries University since 2001 and has developed graduate interfaith education programs in collaboration with universities and research institutes in the United States, Africa, Turkey, India, and Thailand. Grudzen earned his Ph.D. in the history of Christianity and Islam from Columbia University.  He received a John Templeton award in 2003 for the development of the first scientific curriculum by Christian and Muslim scholars for the first major universities in Europe. He did this research in collaboration with the Ian Ramsey Center at Oxford University. In 2010 Grudzen co-led the largest American academic delegation ever sponsored by the US State Department for interfaith and intercultural dialogue with faculty members 'at several Egyptian Universities throughout Egypt including Al Azhar University in Cairo, the leading Sunni Muslim education center in the world.  

Beginning in 2012, Grudzen and Global Ministries Universities undertook a major effort to combat religious extremism in the coastal areas of Kenya where there had been frequent terrorist incidents.  The project brought together religious leaders and educators from both the coastal region and throughout Kenya to train these leaders in interfaith dialogue and methods of conflict resolution.  The success of this program led to its integration  with the Tangaza University Institute for Interreligious Dialogue and Islamic Studies in 2019. In 2021 Grudzen and his wife, Marita Grudzen,  co-chaired the US Hub for a three-day interfaith conference on Pope Francis' encyclical, Fratelli Tutti, co-sponsored with Tangaza Univesity and other Christian and Muslim universities in Kenya and Indonesia in collaboration with the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue at the Vatican.  Over 3000 participants took part in this conference from 15 different countries. A second international, interfaith conference is scheduled for February of 2023. Grudzen has authored or co-authored several books on the role of interfaith dialogue and collaboration in promoting peace and reconciliation across the world.

About Marita Grudzen:

Marita Grudzen, MHS, is Associate Director Emerita and a founding member of the Stanford Geriatric Education Center, a national center in ethnogeriatrics within Stanford University School of Medicine. Ms. Grudzen was co-recipient with Chaplain Bruce Feldstein, MD, of the Templeton Award(2001-06) for the medical school required curriculum they developed, Spirituality and Meaning in Medicine. Ms. Grudzen chaired a qualitative study of diverse healing practices in six ethnic minority populations in the Bay Area which was translated into health professional educational programming. She also developed a relationship of trust with the Afghan leadership in Fremont, CA during a series of three focus groups she co-led with the Afghan elder women’s community. Most recently, Marita co-developed the curriculum for the Fremont Community Ambassador Program for Seniors, and 25 hour Hospital to Home Transition training for volunteers from the Ethnic Minority Senior Services Consortium of San Jose, CA. Marita has received an international award from the Prime Minister of Turkey for her contribution to the First International Care Congress in Istanbul from May 2-8, 2005.

Since August of 2011, every year Ms. Grudzen with her husband have co-developed, implemented, evaluated and revised a 40 hour Interfaith Leadership Program in partnership with Christian, Muslim and African Indigenous Religious leaders in Kenya. Recruiting local expert and community leaders as co-presenters they returned every August until the current Covid era and maintain communication through the year with their interfaith partners through Skype and email.

Online via Zoom. Register Now 

Gerald and Marita Grudzen Global Ministries University 
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Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro discussed America's Taiwan policy with CNN's Fareed Zakaria and Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass. 

After President Biden affirmed that the United States would protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack, the White House clarified that the President was not announcing a shift in U.S. policy, which is purposefully left ambiguous.

When asked why Taiwan was such a pressing issue for China, Mastro indicated that "there's political, social, and emotional components...the emotional component has to do with the fact that the Communist Party won the Civil War in 1949, the nationalists fled to Taiwan, and that war is not over until Taiwan becomes part of China." They believe that their "national rejuvenation cannot be complete until the seven decades-long civil war comes to an end."

 


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"If you had asked me four years ago what is the likelihood that China would attack Taiwan I would have put it at zero percent, and now I put it at 60 percent"
Oriana Skylar Mastro

"If you had asked me four years ago what is the likelihood that China would attack Taiwan I would have put it at zero percent, and now I put it at 60 percent, and that is largely because Deng Xiaoping had to kick the can down the road because he didn't have a lot of options, and then they decided to build their economy so they had the economic power base, and then under Xi Jinping they really accelerated the military modernization," said Mastro.

In the intervew, Mastro, Haass, and Zakaria also discuss the economic and diplomatic risks that China would face should the nation attempt to invade Taiwan. 

Watch the full intervew here.

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An Island that lies inside Taiwan's territory is seen with the Chinese city of Xiamen in the background.
Commentary

The Taiwan Temptation

Why Beijing Might Resort to Force
The Taiwan Temptation
Figures of Kuomintang soldiers are seen in the foreground, with the Chinese city of Xiamen in the background, on February 04, 2021 in Lieyu, an outlying island of Kinmen that is the closest point between Taiwan and China.
Commentary

Strait of Emergency?

Debating Beijing’s Threat to Taiwan
Strait of Emergency?
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On CNN's GPS with Fareed Zakaria, APARC Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro shares insights about China's aspirations to take Taiwan by force and the United States' role, should a forceful reunification come to pass.

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jacob helberg the wires of war event flyer showing his photo and book cover

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the wires of war book cover showing a dragon and an eagle fighting over a rope
On Wednesday, October 27 at 10 am Pacific Time, please join Andrew Grotto, Director of Stanford’s Program on Geopolitics, Technology and Governance, for a conversation with Jacob Helberg, senior adviser at the Stanford Program on Geopolitics, Technology and Governance and an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) to discuss his newly released book "The Wires of War:  Technology and the Global Struggle for Power" - an urgent and groundbreaking account of the high-stakes global cyberwar brewing between Western democracies and the autocracies of China and Russia that could potentially crush democracy.

From 2016 to 2020, Jacob Helberg led Google’s global internal product policy efforts to combat disinformation and foreign interference. During this time, he found himself in the midst of what can only be described as a quickly escalating two-front technology cold war between democracy and autocracy.

On the front-end, we’re fighting to control the software—applications, news information, social media platforms, and more—of what we see on the screens of our computers, tablets, and phones, a clash which started out primarily with Russia but now increasingly includes China and Iran. Even more ominously, we’re also engaged in a hidden back-end battle—largely with China—to control the Internet’s hardware, which includes devices like cellular phones, satellites, fiber-optic cables, and 5G networks.

This tech-fueled war will shape the world’s balance of power for the coming century as autocracies exploit twenty-first-century methods to re-divide the world into twentieth century-style spheres of influence. Helberg cautions that the spoils of this fight are power over every meaningful aspect of our lives, including our economy, our infrastructure, our national security, and ultimately, our national sovereignty. Without a firm partnership with the government, Silicon Valley is unable to protect democracy from the autocrats looking to sabotage it from Beijing to Moscow and Tehran. The stakes of the ongoing cyberwar are no less than our nation’s capacity to chart its own future, the freedom of our democratic allies, and even the ability of each of us to control our own fates, Helberg says. And time is quickly running out.


Praise for “The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power”: 

“An analytical tour de force on the rapidly increasing challenge of techno-authoritarian nations to our national security, our economy, and our democracy.” —President Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States

  

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