OBJECTIVE: Although an increasing fraction of Medicare beneficiaries die outside the hospital, the proportion of total Medicare expenditures attributable to care in the last year of life has not dropped. We sought to determine whether disproportionate increases in hospital treatment intensity over time among decedents are responsible for the persistent growth in end-of-life expenditures.

DATA SOURCE: The 1985-1999 Medicare Medical Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) and Denominator files.

STUDY DESIGN: We sampled inpatient claims for 20 percent of all elderly fee-for-service Medicare decedents and 5 percent of all survivors between 1985 and 1999 and calculated age-, race-, and gender-adjusted per-capita inpatient expenditures and rates of intensive care unit (ICU) and intensive procedure use. We used the decedent-to-survivor expenditure ratio to determine whether growth rates among decedents outpaced growth relative to survivors, using the growth rate among survivors to control for secular trends in treatment intensity. Data Collection. The data were collected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Real inpatient expenditures for the Medicare fee-for-service population increased by 60 percent, from $58 billion in 1985 to $90 billion in 1999, one-quarter of which were accrued by decedents. Between 1985 and 1999 the proportion of beneficiaries with one or more intensive care unit (ICU) admission increased from 30.5 percent to 35.0 percent among decedents and from 5.0 percent to 7.1 percent among survivors; those undergoing one or more intensive procedure increased from 20.9 percent to 31.0 percent among decedents and from 5.8 percent to 8.5 percent among survivors. The majority of intensive procedures in the United States were performed in the more numerous survivors, although in 1999 50 percent of feeding tube placements, 60 percent of intubations/tracheostomies, and 75 percent of cardiopulmonary resuscitations were in decedents. The proportion of beneficiaries dying in a hospital decreased from 44.4 percent to 39.3 percent, but the likelihood of being admitted to an ICU or undergoing an intensive procedure during the terminal hospitalization increased from 38.0 percent to 39.8 percent and from 17.8 percent to 30.3 percent, respectively. One in five Medicare beneficiaries who died in the hospital in 1999 received mechanical ventilation during their terminal admission.

CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient treatment intensity for all fee-for-service beneficiaries increased between 1985 and 1999 regardless of survivorship status. Absolute changes in per-capita hospital expenditures, ICU admissions, and intensive inpatient procedure use were much higher among decedents. Relative changes were similar except for ICU admissions, which grew faster among survivors. The secular decline in in-hospital deaths has not resulted in decreased per capita utilization of expensive inpatient services in the last year of life. This could imply that net hospital expenditures for the dying might have been even higher over this time period if the shift toward hospice had not occurred.

OBJECTIVES: This study seeks to further characterize the role of exercise testing in the elderly for prognosis and diagnosis of coronary artery disease. BACKGROUND: Recent exercise testing guidelines have recognized that statements regarding the elderly do not have an adequate evidence-based quality because the studies they are based on have limitations in sample size and design. The Duke Treadmill Score has been recommended for risk stratification, but recent evidence has suggested that it does not function in the elderly.

METHODS: The study population consisted of male veterans (1872 patients >or=65 years; 3798 patients <65 years) who underwent routine clinical exercise testing with a mean follow-up of six years. A subset who underwent coronary angiography as clinically indicated (elderly, n = 405; younger, n= 809) were included. The primary outcome for all subjects was cardiovascular mortality with coronary angiographic findings as the outcome in those selected for angiography.

RESULTS: In survival analysis, exercise-induced ST depression was prognostic in both age groups only when cardiovascular death was considered as the end point. Peak metabolic equivalents were the most significant predictor for both age groups only when all-cause death was considered as the end point. New age-specific prognostic scores were developed and found to be predictive for cardiovascular mortality in the elderly. Moreover, in the angiographic subset of the elderly, a specific diagnostic score provided significantly better discrimination than exercise ST measurements alone. For any new score, there is a need for validation in another elderly population.

CONCLUSIONS: The mortality end point affected the choice of prognostic variables. This study demonstrates that exercise test scores can be helpful for the diagnosis and prognosis of coronary disease in the elderly.

This issue of CHP/PCOR's quarterly newsletter covers news and developments at the centers for the fall quarter 2003.

The issue features articles about a handful of health policy talks sponsored by the centers in the fall quarter; a novel "interactive textbook" on clinical symptom research; the recent arrival from China of the second fellow for CHP/PCOR's China-U.S. Health and Aging Research Training Program; a roundup of the 25th annual conference of the Society for Medical Decision Making; and a summary of last quarter's media coverage highlighting the centers' research work.

This paper investigates trends in disability in the U.S. population, particularly among people under age fifty. Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30-49. We suggest some possible explanations for rising disability levels, such as obesity, technological advances in medicine, and changing disability insurance laws. Obesity and its attendant disorders seem particularly associated with these trends, although the data are not definitive. Whatever its sources, rising disability among the young could have adverse consequences for public programs such as disability insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we examine the relationship between nutritional status, poverty, and food insecurity for household members of various ages. Our most striking result is that, while poverty is predictive of poor nutrition among preschool children, food insecurity does not provide any additional predictive power for this age group. Among school age children, neither poverty nor food insecurity is associated with nutritional outcomes, while among adults and the elderly, both food insecurity and poverty are predictive. These results suggest that researchers should be cautious about assuming connections between food insecurity and nutritional outcomes, particularly among children.

Elderly Floridians use much more medical care and have much lower mortality rates than do their peers in other regions of the country. After demographic and other variables are controlled for, the differential between Florida and the rest of the United States is 25 percent for utilization and 10 percent for mortality among whites ages 65-84. This paper summarizes the facts about Floridian exceptionalism and reviews various possible explanations: physician inducement of utilization, differences in preferences, selective migration into and out of the state, climate, and social interactions, among others. Readers are invited to suggest their own explanations and their policy recommendations, if any.

Studies from the early 1990s have documented greater intensity of treatment for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the United States compared with Canada, with little difference in health outcomes. Little is known about whether treatments and outcomes are changing differently over time in the two countries, and whether the differences vary with patient age. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of trends in cardiac procedure use, mortality, and recurrent AMI for patients 65 years or older hospitalized with AMI in the United States and Quebec. We examined Medicare claims and enrollment data from the United States (1.5 million) and provincial claims data from Quebec (35,000) between 1988 and 1994. Results Use of cardiac procedures grew more rapidly between 1988 and 1994 in the United States, particularly for patients 75 years or older; unlike in Quebec, these cardiac procedures were performed soon after AMI. Both countries experienced significant declines in 1-year mortality: the decline averaged 1.27% points per year in the United States and 1.05% points in Quebec (P = ns). For AMI patients 75 years or older, 30-day and 1-year mortality declined approximately twice as rapidly in the United States as in Quebec (P 0.01). The decline in mortality in the United States relative to Canada was significantly greater among patients 75 years or older but not among those age 65 to 74 years. Readmission rates with recurrent AMI were almost unchanged. Conclusions Over time, the use of cardiac procedures in elderly patients with AMI has risen more rapidly in the United States than in Quebec. These differences in procedure trends were associated with reductions in overall long-term AMI mortality in both countries. Key words: Acute myocardial infarction; elderly; mortality; catheterization; angioplasty; coronary artery bypass surgery; population studies; trend analysis

CONTEXT: It is unknown whether white and black Medicare beneficiaries have different rates of cardiac procedure utilization or long-term survival after cardiac arrest.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 5948 elderly Medicare beneficiaries (5429 white and 519 black) were identified who survived to hospital discharge between 1990 and 1999 after admission for cardiac arrest. Demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical information about these patients was obtained from Medicare administrative files, the US census, and the American Hospital Association's annual institutional survey. A Cox proportional hazard model that included demographic and clinical predictors indicated a hazard ratio for mortality of 1.30 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.55) for blacks aged 66 to 74 years compared with whites of the same age. The addition of cardiac procedures to this model lowered the hazard ratio for blacks to 1.23 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.46). In analyses stratified by race, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) had a mortality hazard ratio of 0.53 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.62) for white patients and 0.50 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.91) for black patients. Logistic regression models that compared procedure rates between races indicated odds ratios for blacks aged 66 to 74 years of 0.58 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.94) to receive an ICD and 0.50 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.75) to receive either revascularization or an ICD.

CONCLUSIONS: There is racial disparity in long-term mortality among elderly cardiac arrest survivors. Both black and white patients benefited from ICD implantation, but blacks were less likely to undergo this potentially life-saving procedure. Lower rates of cardiac procedures may explain in part the lower survival rates among black patients.