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Heather Rahimi
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On February 26, 2025 the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions hosted a discussion on the role of industrial policy in U.S.-China competition, featuring insights from Skyline Scholars Loren Brandt from the University of Toronto and Xiaonian Xu from the China Europe International Business School, as well as Senior Fellow Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The panelists examined the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

Before moving to a question and answer session moderated by SCCEI Co-Director Scott Rozelle, each panelist shared their insights on the topic through short-form presentations.



China’s Growth: From Industrialization to Innovation
Panelists highlighted the transformation of China’s economy, characterizing its past expansion as a result of rapid industrialization rather than a so-called "economic miracle." They described China’s growth in two stages: an initial phase driven by market expansion and a later phase, emerging after 2008, where state-led stimulus measures played a dominant role.

It was noted that China’s post-industrialization period has led to economic stagnation, as capital accumulation peaked in 2005, leaving excess capacity in key sectors. With investment-driven growth slowing, experts emphasized the need for a shift toward innovation. However, this transition requires structural changes, including stronger rule of law, well-functioning markets, and better incentives for entrepreneurship. While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

China’s Industrial Dominance: Successes and Costs
The discussion also analyzed China’s dominance in industries such as lithium batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and shipbuilding. The country’s success in these sectors was attributed to industrial policies that strategically direct state resources into key industries. However, these policies come with economic inefficiencies, including excessive production capacity and stagnating productivity growth.

While China’s industrial policies aim to reduce reliance on foreign technology and foster indigenous innovation, they have also led to concerns about global trade imbalances. For instance, China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now significantly surpasses that of historical export champions Germany and Japan, disrupting global markets. Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Trade Tensions and U.S. Policy Responses
The panelists also explored how China’s development model has triggered trade tensions with the U.S. and other nations. They noted that industrial subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfers, and non-tariff barriers have led to accusations of unfair trade practices. In response, the U.S. has imposed tariffs, blocked WTO dispute resolution mechanisms, and debated revisions to trade agreements, including the Phase 1 trade deal.

Some participants suggested that while U.S.-China relations remain contentious, future shifts in U.S. foreign policy—such as improved U.S.-Russia ties under the new Trump administration—could influence the direction of trade negotiations with China. However, national security concerns and economic competition in emerging sectors like AI and clean energy will likely keep tensions high.

Looking Ahead
The discussion collectively emphasized that China’s economy will face significant challenges if it doesn’t move from an investment-driven approach to one centered on innovation. While China continues to exert influence in key industries, questions remain about its ability to sustain long-term growth without addressing underlying inefficiencies. Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies will play a crucial role in shaping the future of global economic competition.

The event underscored the complexity of U.S.-China economic relations, with industrial policy at the heart of the debate. As both countries navigate these challenges, the global economy will continue to feel the ripple effects of their evolving competition.

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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on China's recent economic slowdown and produced summary report of the discussion.
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Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China

Craig Allen, the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, spoke on the evolving dynamics of technological leadership between the U.S. and China and their implications for the rest of the world.
Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China
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During this SCCEI event, expert panelists Xiaonian Xu, Loren Brandt, and Mary Lovely shared insights on the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

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Soraya Johnson
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McGill University Professor of Political Science Juliet Johnson unpacked how central banks use their own museums to support the ‘stability narrative’ and promote confidence in financial institutions. She discussed her research in a recent REDS seminar co-sponsored by CDDRL and The Europe Center.

Central banks may be unique among government bureaucracies because of their investment in their own museums. Central banks focus on public outreach because monetary systems depend on collective belief in the value of money, as it is one of the most essential social contracts upon which modern society is built.

Museums can be effective instruments for improving faith in money and financial institutions. Visitors are unusually receptive to learning from museums because museums are often viewed as neutral, trusted guides. The number of central bank museums has increased significantly over the last two decades, and some get many visitors yearly. The Museum Bank Indonesia has an impressive 10,781 Google reviews and a 4.7-star rating.

The nearly 60 central bank museums that focus on economic education (in addition to numismatics and/or art) promote what Johnson calls the stability narrative, which is that central banks can maintain the value and security of money, represent the nation, and have become progressively more effective over time.

Through interactive exhibits and games, these museums aim to teach visitors that the central bank is needed to fight the evils of inflation. For example, the Bank of Finland museum has a display that features a green inflation monster to convey this sentiment. They use the exhibits to emphasize how people can be personally affected by inflation and, in many cases, to explain why maintaining a 2% inflation rate is ideal for protecting the value of money.

Central banks convey a sense of security to visitors through exhibits about detecting counterfeit money, regulating banks, and displaying their wealth, such as with gold bars. They tie their work to national pride through art displays about national heroes depicted on currency and by relating their work to prominent historical events. Through visual timelines, they convey how central bankers have learned from past mistakes and solved problems, making them more equipped to continue ensuring the stability of our financial system.

The rise of central bank museums exhibits the importance of improving public confidence in money and the financial institutions that control it, legitimizing an essential aspect of our society. 

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Juliet Johnson, Professor of Political Science at McGill University, explores how central banks build public trust through museums.

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In-person: Stanford Graduate School Business - C105 (655 Knight Way, Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom

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Supply chains can be surprisingly complex. In many low- and middle-income settings, large companies often rely on networks of small, independent distributors who travel by foot to sell consumer goods to otherwise hard-to-reach customers (Kruijff et al. 2024). These ‘micro-distributors’ operate at the far edge of the supply chain, with no formal employment contracts, thin profit margins, and high levels of economic risk.

In a field experiment in Kenya, we partnered with one of the world’s largest food manufacturers (pseudonymously “FoodCo”) to evaluate whether investment-appropriate financing contracts could help their independent distributors improve their business performance. We found that tailoring repayment terms to better share risk and rewards—compared to a standard, rigid debt contract—significantly boosted distributors’ profits. Crucially, these more flexible contracts took advantage of detailed administrative data on monthly performance. These findings underscore the promise of improved observability enabled by digitisation: with richer data, financial contracts can be designed to incorporate greater risk-sharing (Fischer 2013, Meki 2024), potentially opening new opportunities for mutually beneficial investments.

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Flexible financing for ‘last-mile’ distributors boosted profits across a food supply chain in Kenya.

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VoxDev
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Francesco Cordaro
Marcel Fafchamps
Colin Mayer
Muhammad Meki
Simon Quinn
Kate Roll
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Flyer for the conference "Taiwan Forward." Image: aerial view of Taipei.

Organized by the Taiwan Program at Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC)
Co-sponsored by National Taiwan University's Office of International Affairs

As Taiwan looks to develop comprehensive strategies to promote national interests, it faces challenges shared by other advanced economies. How can Taiwan leverage AI innovation and its semiconductor prowess to drive resilience and continued growth while promoting entrepreneurship and forging advantages in emerging industries? What regulatory and policy measures are needed to scale Taiwan’s role as a global leader in biomedical and healthcare advancements while ensuring patient trust and safety? How can it address the gaps posed by rapid family changes and population aging? And how do its historical and linguistic legacies shape present narratives and identities, within Taiwan and among the Taiwanese diaspora?

Join us for a conference that explores these questions and more, featuring panel discussions with scholars from Stanford University, National Taiwan University, and other universities in Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Singapore, alongside Taiwanese industry leaders. We will examine Taiwan’s strategies for navigating modernization in a shifting global landscape — bridging technology, industry, culture, and society through interdisciplinary and comparative perspectives.

 

8:45 - 9:10 a.m.
Opening Session

Welcome Remarks

Shih-Torng Ding
Executive Vice President, National Taiwan University

Gi-Wook Shin
Director, Shorenstein APARC and the Taiwan Program, Stanford University

Congratulatory Remarks

Chia-Lung Lin
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Taiwan

Raymond Greene
Director, American Institute in Taiwan 


9:10-10:40 a.m.
Panel 1 — Advancing Health and Healthcare: Technology and Policy Perspectives     
    
Panelists 

Kuan-Ming Chen
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, National Taiwan University

Lynia Huang
Founder and CEO, Bamboo Technology Ltd.

Ming-Jen Lin
Distinguished Professor, Department of Economics, National Taiwan University

Siyan Yi
Associate Professor, School of Public Health, National University of Singapore

Moderator
Karen Eggleston
Director, Asia Health Policy Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University


10:40-10:50 a.m.
Coffee and Tea Break


10:50 a.m.-12:30 p.m.
Panel 2 — Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Technology Leadership

Panelists 

Steve Chen
Co-founder, YouTube and Taiwan Gold Card Holder #1

Matthew Liu
Co-founder, Origin Protocol

Huey-Jen Jenny Su
Professor, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Former President, National Cheng Kung University

Yaoting Wang
Founding Partner, Darwin Ventures, Taiwan

Moderator
H.-S. Philip Wong
Willard R. and Inez Kerr Bell Professor in the School of Engineering, Stanford University


12:30-1 p.m.

Perspectives from Stanford and NTU Students

Tiffany Chang
BS Student Engineering Management & Human-Centered Design, Stanford University

Liang-Yu Ko
MA Student in Sociology, National Taiwan University


1-2 p.m. 
Lunch Break


2-3:30 p.m.  
Panel 3 — Interwoven Identities: Exploring Chinese Languages, Taiwanese-american Narratives, and Japanese Colonial Legacies in Taiwan

Panelists 

Carissa Cheng
BA Student in International Relations, Stanford University

Yi-Ting Chung
PhD Candidate in History, Stanford University

Jeffrey Weng
Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University

Moderator
Ruo-Fan Liu
Taiwan Program Postdoctoral Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University


3:30-3:45 p.m. 
Coffee and Tea Break


3:45-5:15 p.m.    
Panel 4 —  The Demographic Transformation: Lessons from Taiwan and Comparative Cases

Panelists

Yen-Hsin Alice Cheng
Professor, Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica

Youngtae Cho
Professor of Demography and Director, Population Policy Research Center, Seoul National University

Setsuya Fukuda
Senior Researcher, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

Moderator
Paul Y. Chang
Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Association Senior Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University


5:15-5:30 p.m.    
Closing Remarks

Gi-Wook Shin
Director, Shorenstein APARC and the Taiwan Program, Stanford University

THIS CONFERENCE IS HELD IN TAIPEI, TAIWAN, ON SUNDAY, MARCH 23, 2025, FROM 8:45 AM TO 5:30 PM, TAIPEI TIME

International Conference Hall, Tsai Lecture Hall
College of Law
National Taiwan University

No.1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road
Taipei City, 10617
Taiwan

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Cover of the book "The Four Talent Giants"

The Asia-Pacific region has seen extraordinary economic achievements. Japan's post-World War II transformation into an economic powerhouse challenging US dominance by the late 1980s was miraculous. China's rise as the world's second-largest economy is one of the 21st century's most stunning stories. India, now a top-five economy by GDP, is rapidly ascending. Despite its small population, Australia ranked among the top ten GDP nations in 1960 and has remained resilient. While cultivating, attracting, and leveraging talent has been crucial to growth in these countries, their approaches have varied widely, reflecting significant cultural, historical, and institutional differences.

In this sweeping analysis of talent development strategies, Gi-Wook Shin investigates how these four "talent giants'' achieved economic power and sustained momentum by responding to risks and challenges such as demographic crises, brain drain, and geopolitical tensions. This book offers invaluable insights for policymakers and is essential for scholars, students, and readers interested in understanding the dynamics of talent and economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

This title is forthcoming in July 2025.

Advance praise for The Four Talent Giants:

"The Four Talent Giants is a wonderful book, full of new ideas and, especially, comparative empirical research. Gi-Wook Shin's ambitious treatment of the topic of human capital, or 'talent,' in the context of a globalized economy is very important and reading it will be a rewarding exercise for scholars, politicians, corporate leaders, and many others."
—Nirvikar Singh, University of California, Santa Cruz

"The current scholarly literature offers multiple country-specific talent formation studies, including those on the transformative role of skilled migration. However, few authors have dared to attempt a thorough cross-national analysis, comparing the nature and impact of policies across highly variable geopolitical contexts. The Four Talent Giants achieves this goal triumphantly, and accessibly, assessing the global implications of national experimentation for effective talent portfolio management."
—Lesleyanne Hawthorne, University of Melbourne
 

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National Strategies for Human Resource Development Across Japan, Australia, China, and India

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Gi-Wook Shin
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Stanford University Press
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How can we build trust, especially in polarized societies? We propose that exposure to broad financial markets—where individuals place their assets in the hands of large groups of unfamiliar agents who nonetheless have the incentive and ability to promote their interests—can contribute to generalized trust. In a randomized controlled trial, we encourage Israelis to hold or trade stocks for up to seven weeks. We find that participation in financial markets increases the probability of expressing generalized trust by about 6 percentage points, equivalent to a quarter of the control group mean. The effects seem to be driven by political partisans along the left–right spectrum in Israel, and are robust to negative price changes. Thus, trust is not only a cause but can also be an effect of participation in financial markets.

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Journal of Public Economics
Authors
Saumitra Jha
Moses Shayo
Chagai Weiss
Number
February 2025, 105303

Encina Hall, East Wing, Room 413

Office Hours:
Select Wednesdays | 2:00-5:00 PM 
Please schedule a meeting in advance

0
Skyline Scholar (2025), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Professor of Economics, Noranda Chair in Economics and International Trade, University of Toronto
Research Fellow, IZA
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PhD

Loren Brandt is the Noranda Chair Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto specializing in the Chinese economy. He is also a research fellow at the IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor) in Bonn, Germany. He has published widely on the Chinese economy in leading economic journals and been involved in extensive household and enterprise survey work in both China and Vietnam. With Thomas Rawski, he completed Policy, Regulation, and Innovation in China’s Electricity and Telecom Industries (Cambridge University Press, 2019), an interdisciplinary effort analyzing the effect of government policy on the power and telecom sectors in China. He was also co-editor and major contributor to China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge University Press, 2008), which provides an integrated analysis of China’s unexpected economic boom of the past three decades. Brandt was also one of the area editors for Oxford University Press’ five-volume Encyclopedia of Economic History (2003). His current research focuses on issues of entrepreneurship and firm dynamics, industrial policy and innovation and  economic growth and structural change.

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A growing body of literature explores the effect of higher education on the urban–rural divide in China. Despite an increasing number of rural students gaining access to college, little is known about their performance in college or their job prospects after graduation. Using nationally representative data from over 40,000 urban and rural college students, we examine rural students’ college performance and estimate the impact of rural status on students’ first job wages in comparison to their urban peers. Our results indicate that once accepted into college, rural students perform equally as well, if not better, than their urban counterparts. Additionally, we discovered that rural students earn a 6.2 per cent wage premium compared to their urban counterparts in their first job after graduation. Our findings suggest the importance of expanding access to higher education for rural students, as it appears to serve as an equalizer between urban and rural students despite their significantly different backgrounds.

Journal Publisher
The China Quarterly
Authors
Huan Wang
Huan Wang
Claire Cousineau
Matthew Boswell
Matthew Boswell
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
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The Program on Capitalism and Democracy
presents a two-day conference
Co-sponsored by the Stanford Graduate School of Business (GSB) and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL)

Global Capitalism, Trust, and Accountability conference

Are democratic governments equipped and willing to hold global capital accountable, and does their failure to do so affect citizens’ trust?

Global capitalism has reshaped trade, economic priorities, and financial flows — and, in doing so, has also transformed societies and politics. However, the transnational nature of global capital has presented an intellectual and policy challenge as corporate activities and corruption adapt to the global environment. While activists, journalists, and scholars have investigated and publicized these issues, much work remains to develop coherent analytical understandings of these problems.  

Democratic governments often struggle to establish and enforce proper rules for corporate malfeasance and corruption. Domestic regulations present jurisdictional challenges, and corporate law, which enables corporations, has yet to be effective in preventing them and their leaders from dodging accountability in global markets. The world of global capital is opaque, designed explicitly to hide assets or evade the reach of governments. The financialization of the global economy has expanded the power not only of banks but also of professional services that facilitate ties between wealthy individuals, political leaders, and tax havens or shelters.

This conference brings together scholars across the disciplines of law, business, social sciences, and history, as well as practitioners and journalists, to explore the challenge of creating trust and accountability in a system dominated by global capitalism. In convening together, we aim to advance research, education, and policy on these critical issues.

Organizers

Anat Admati (George G.C. Parker Professor of Finance and Economics, GSB, and Faculty Director of the Capitalism and Democracy Program at CDDRL) and Didi Kuo (Center Fellow, CDDRL)

FRIDAY, APRIL 4

 

1:30 - 1:45 — Introduction and Opening Remarks
 

  • Anat Admati, George G.C. Parker Professor of Finance and Economics, Stanford Graduate School of Business
  • Didi Kuo, Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
  • Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
  • Peter DeMarzo, Philip H. Knight Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of Business (Interim)


1:45 - 3:15 pm Session 1 — Why Trustworthy Governments are Essential
 

Global capitalism works best for society if governments can be trusted to provide public goods and set and enforce proper rules to enable markets and corporations to succeed while protecting human rights and the environment. This panel examines the historical development of capitalism and explores what it takes for governments to earn the trust needed. It also reflects on how global capitalism today may enable corruption and undermine trust in democratic governments.

Panelists:

  • Vic Khanna (Michigan Law)
  • Naomi Lamoreaux (Yale History)
  • Alexander Cooley (Barnard Political Science)


Discussant: Rick Messick (Global Anticorruption Blog)
Moderator: Curtis Milhaupt (Stanford Law)

3:15 - 3:45 — Break

 

3:45 - 5:15 pm — Session 2: Opacity and Illicit Flows


The financialization and globalization of capital have increased opportunities for illicit financial flows, money laundering, and corruption. How should scholars conceptualize and measure these problems and the harm they cause? What is the role of anonymous and multinational corporations and secrecy jurisdictions in facilitating, exacerbating, and growing opportunities to evade laws? What is the role of cryptocurrencies?

Panelists:

  • Dan Neilson (UT Austin Political Science)
  • Gary Kalman (Transparency International US)
  • Brooke Harrington (Dartmouth Sociology)
     

Discussant: Mark Weidemaier (UNC Law)
Moderator: Louise Story (journalist, author, media leader)
 

5:30 - 6:30 pm — Virtual Keynote


Tom Wright
Co-author of the New York Times bestseller, 'Billion Dollar Whale;' Wall Street Journal's Asia Economics Editor (2013 - 2019); and Co-Founder of Project Brazen, the production studio that launched the hit podcast, 'Fat Leonard.'
 

6:30 — Reception and Dinner
 



SATURDAY, APRIL 5
 

8:00 - 8:30 am — Breakfast
 

8:30 - 9:15 am — Keynote


Judge Jed Rakoff
Senior Judge of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York since 2010

9:15 - 10:45 am — Session 3: The Law and Politics of Fighting Corruption


Can governments and global institutions address corruption, defined as the abuse of power in its many forms, within and across jurisdictions through laws? This panel examines the mechanisms and tools that are available to prosecutors and policymakers to investigate and penalize corruption in the private sector and government. It also explores the political challenge of ensuring that the legal tools are available and utilized properly to reduce corruption.

Panelists:

  • Kevin Davis (NYU Law)
  • Gerhard Schick (co-founder and co-head of Finanzwende Recherche)
  • John Githongo (Anti-corruption activist)
     

Discussant: Vikrant Vig (GSB)
Moderator: Luigi Zingales (Chicago)

10:45 - 11:15 am — Break
 

11:15 am -12:45 pm — Session 4: Greed, Norms, Culture, and Trust


Norms and culture, both in corporations, in government bodies, and in society at large, play a significant role in promoting trust and preventing misconduct. Global capitalism reflects norms, but it also reshapes them. This panel investigates the challenges that arise in building cultural norms in a global context.

Panelists:

  • Norman Eisen (Brookings)
  • Peter Solmssen (Former Managing Board Member and General Counsel Siemens AG)
  • Miriam Baer (Brooklyn Law)
     

Discussant: Paola Sapienza (Hoover Institution)
Moderator: Didi Kuo (CDDRL)

12:45 - 1:45 pm Lunch
 

1:45 - 3:15 pm — Session 5: Corporate Misconduct and the Law


What are the tools for deterring corporate misconduct, and are these tools being used effectively? This panel of experts on white-collar crime will explain why laws and enforcement mechanisms may fail to deter corporate misconduct and why corporate leaders are rarely appropriately held accountable. What is the interplay of institutions, politics, and power that undermines the rule of law in the corporate context?

Panelists:

  • Ellen S. Podgor (Stetson Law School)
  • Elizabeth Pollman (Penn Law School)
  • Fabio De Pasquale (Prosecutor, Milan Italy)
     

Discussant: Jennifer Taub (Wayne Law School)
Moderator: Anat Admati (GSB)

3:15 -3:45 pm — Break
 

3:45 -5:15 pm — Session 6 (Round Table): What Academics, Activists, and the Media Can Do


This roundtable will enable all participants to brainstorm how academics, activists, and journalists can work together to accomplish shared goals around global capitalism and accountability. How are each sector's resources, voices, and contributions best deployed? How might individuals and organizations align their work and objectives? And most importantly, how might we create a more trustworthy and fair economic system for the 21st century?

Moderator: Bethany McLean (Journalist, author)

5:15 - 5:30 pm — Closing Remarks
 

5:30 pm — Closing Reception

In-person: By invitation only.

Virtual: Open to the public

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