Casey Maue, a PhD student in the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources alogn with Woods Institute Senior Fellow, Erica Plambeck, spent time this spring examining the oil palm supply chain in Ghana. Casey is a 3rd year PhD student and is advised by FSE Director Roz Naylor and FSE Senior Fellow Marshall Burke. Casey's research focuses on the economic dimensions of agricultural development in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. In his dissertation chapter focused on development in the oil palm industry in Ghana, Casey is examining how the provision of informal financial services (such as access to trade credit or informal savings) by different buyers (processors) in the oil palm supply chain determines farmers' output-market decisions, and how relational contracts between farmers and processors that provide access to these informal services can be leveraged to increase supply chain productivity, and the welfare of smallholder oil palm farmers.
Casey and Erica traveled to the municipality of Juaben, located in the Ashanti region of central Ghana, and conducted focus group discussions and in-person interviews with numerous stakeholders working in oil palm. They visited with oil palm farmers and buyers of their fruit – palm oil processors. There are two kinds of palm oil processors in the Ghanaian supply chain, small-scale artisanal mills and larger industrial mills, which compete with each other for the fruit produced by smallholder oil palm farmers. Through this research, Casey and Erica sought to better understand the economic forces that affect a farmer’s decision to sell their fruit to an industrial versus an artisanal mill. Doing so will provide insights that processors can use to design more effective incentives for their suppliers that will increase the quantity and reliability of fruit delivered to them. Fostering more consistent, and trusting relationships between farmers and processors is key to increasing the productivity and profitability of enterprises all along the supply chain, to increasing food security for poor oil palm farmers, and to promoting effective private governance of oil palm’s environmental impacts.
Since the 1960s, India’s groundwater irrigation has increased dramatically, playing an important role in its economy and people’s lives — supporting livelihoods of over 26 crore farmers and agricultural labourers who grow over a third of India’s foodgrains. These benefits, however, have come at the cost of increased pressure on groundwater reserves.
India is the world’s largest user of groundwater and, since the 1980s, its groundwater levels have been dropping. The severity of the problem is particularly acute in the northwest, where levels have plunged from 8m below ground to 16m, so that water needs to be pumped from even greater depths. Worse yet, much of this is non-renewable since recharge rates are less than extraction rates and replenishing this resource can take thousands of years.
This won’t last
Using up such “fossil” groundwater is unsustainable. Moreover, the future of monsoon rainfall remains uncertain; while some climate models predict an increase, others forecast a weakening monsoon, although changes in monsoon variability are already underway and will continue into the future. Historical records show the number of dry spells and the intensity of wet spells have risen over the past 50 years. As climate change alters the monsoon, the large stresses on India’s groundwater resources may increase.
Global biodiesel production grew by 23% per annum between 2005 and 2015, leading to a seven-fold expansion of the sector in a single decade. Rapid development in the biodiesel sector corresponded to high crude oil prices, but since mid-2014, oil prices have fallen dramatically. This paper assesses the economic and policy factors that underpinned the expansion of biodiesel, and examines the near-term prospects for biodiesel growth under conditions of low fossil fuel prices. We show that the dramatic increase in biodiesel output would not have occurred without strong policy directives, subsidies, and trade policies designed to support agricultural interests, rural economic development, energy security, and climate targets. Given the important role of policy—and the political context within each country that shapes policy objectives, instruments, and priorities—case studies of major biodiesel producing countries are presented as a key element of our analysis. Although the narrative of biodiesel policies in most countries conveys win-win outcomes across multiple objectives, the case studies show that support of particular constituents, such as farm lobbies or energy interests, often dominates policy action and generates large social costs. Looking out to 2020, the paper highlights risks to the biodiesel industry associated with ongoing regulatory and market uncertainties.
Although sheep are only one of the important domesticates exploited in many parts of the world, it has played a near-paradigmatic role throughout the emergence and spread of European civilization. Domestic sheep and goat unambiguously originate from Southwest Asia where their wild ancestors live. Therefore sheep distributions across Europe represent an element of evident diffusion in the otherwise complex neolithization process. The numerical increase in sheep remains can be spectacular at Early Neolithic sites in Central Europe, even in habitats less than favorable for sheep. In various instances mutton outcompeted locally available pork in the diet as shown by animal remains from archaeological sites across Eurasia. Reasons for this trend seem to be diverse, ranging from greater pastoral mobility through secondary products (wool and dairy) to side effects of religious regulations such as the Iron Age taboo imposed on pork first documented in Judaism. Concomitant strict regulations concerning the “proper” way of slaughtering livestock link the increased dietary importance of sheep to the emergence of metallurgy, i.e. availability of quality blades.
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László Bartosiewicz has worked as an archaeozoologist since 1979. He has studied animal-human relationships during various time periods in several countries of Europe and some in the Near East as well as South America. His research often has a cultural anthropological focus viewing animals as material culture. Recently he has specialized in animal palaeopathology. He published three books and over 350 academic papers. Following teaching positions at the Universities of Budapest (Hungary) and Edinburgh (UK), he currently heads the Osteoarchaeological Research Laboratory at Stockholm University (Sweden). He was twice elected president of the International Council for Archaeozoology (2006–2014).
This event is part of the Origins of Europe Series and is sponsored by the Stanford Archaeology Center and co-sponsored by The Europe Center.
An interview with authors of the “The Tropical Oil Crop Revolution” predicts the future of soy and palm oil booms by examining the past and present.
Used in everything from food to fuel, soybean and palm oil have seen production rates skyrocket in the past 20 years. Controversy surrounds the planting of oil crops – cultivated primarily in Southeast Asia and South America – as they are often grown on deforested lands and rely on large farmers and agribusiness rather than smallholders. “The Tropical Oil Crop Revolution: Food, Feed, Fuel, and Forests,” a new book co-authored by Stanford University researchers, examines the economic, social and environmental impacts of the oil crop revolution, and explores how to develop a more sustainable future.
Derek Byerlee, visiting fellow at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment (FSE), FSE Fellow Walter P. Falcon, and FSE Director Rosamond L. Naylor recently discussed some of their book’s key ideas.
Q: What are the key similarities and differences between the rise of oil crops and the 1965-85 green revolution?
A: From 1990 to 2010, world production of soybean grew by 220 percent and production of palm oil by 300 percent. Like the green revolution for cereal crops, this recent revolution involves two crops – oil palm and soybeans – that dramatically expanded shares in their respective crop subsector – oil crops.
The oil crop revolution differs from its predecessor, the green revolution of rice and wheat, in its mode of expansion. The green revolution embraced tens of millions of producers across many countries, especially where irrigation was available. The oil crop revolution was highly concentrated in a few countries and almost entirely in rainfed areas. Unlike the green revolution, which was spurred on by rapid yield gains, the force behind the oil crop revolution was expansion of crop area.
Q: What are some ways to improve oil palm sustainability?
A: A lot of faith has been put on certification and private standards and commitments. However, without effective land and forest governance, it will be very difficult for the private sector to operate. The state at both national and local levels will need greatly improved and more transparent systems starting from land and forest tenure laws, information systems, civil service capacity and judicial and redress systems.
Q:How will the future of oil crops differ from the past?
A: By 2050, we predict demand for oil crops to drop by as much as two-thirds. Demand for biofuel feedstocks cannot maintain the rapid pace of the past decade. Vegetable oils used for food will also grow more slowly. In Asia, population growth will slow and the effects of rising incomes will diminish as consumers in middle-income countries reach high levels of vegetable oil consumption.
The biggest wild card in terms of supply is land availability. Africa has the most land available, however access to clear property rights are often difficult due to “customary rights” to the land. Soybean, a new crop in much of Africa, will increase along with oil palm. We believe the area covered by oil crops does not have to expand greatly; rather, intensification of existing crop land and a modest expansion in area can meet demand. Steady progress is possible through genetic gains in yield. Sufficient degraded land is available for area expansion, provided land governance and incentive systems are developed to steer the expansion onto degraded lands.
Q: How has development of the biodiesel industry affected tropical vegetable oils in the past 25 years, and how will it shape the sector going forward?
A: Before the turn of the 21st century, few analysts predicted that biodiesel would play a major role in boosting global vegetable oil demand and prices. As it turns out, the expansion of biodiesel markets has been responsible for roughly half of the increase in vegetable oil consumption since 2013. Global biodiesel production more than doubled between 2007 and 2013. By some estimates, it could grow another 50 percent by 2025.
National energy policies continue to play a dominant role in the profitability of the biodiesel industry. The growing response of biofuel policies to low agricultural commodity prices is an important factor that is bound to keep biodiesel in the transportation fuel mix. This is true at least in countries that have strong interests oil crops, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Colombia in the case of oil palm, and the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina in the case of soybeans. Without policies mandating the use of biodiesel in fuel mixes, or incentivizing its use, the industry might fade away.
Q: What do you believe is the biggest takeaway from your research?
A: We are cautiously optimistic that the future expansion of the oil crop sector can be managed more sustainably. The predicted slowing of demand and land requirements will reduce pressure on native ecosystems. Several signs point to convergence among global consumers, private business, civil society, and local governments in finding ways to minimize the trade-offs between economic benefits and social and environmental costs.
Derek Byerlee, is an Adjunct Professor in the Global Human Development Program at Georgetown University and Editor-in-Chief of the Global Food Security journal. Walter P. Falcon is the Farnsworth Professor of International Agricultural Policy (Emeritus) at Stanford, senior fellow with the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. Rosamond L. Naylor is the William Wrigley Professor in Earth Science and Professor of Economics (by courtesy) and Gloria and Richard Kushel Director, at the Center on Food Security and the Environment Stanford.
In a shack that now sits below sea level, a mother in Bangladesh struggles to grow vegetables in soil inundated by salt water. In Malawi, a toddler joins thousands of other children perishing from drought-induced malnutrition. And in China, more than one million people died from air pollution in 2012 alone.
Around the world, climate change is already having an effect on human health.
In a recent paper, Katherine Burke and Michele Barry from the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health, along with former Wellesley College President Diana Walsh, described climate change as “the ultimate global health crisis.” They offered recommendations to the new United States president to address the urgently arising health risks associated with climate change.
Bangladeshi children make their way through flood waters.
The authors, along with Stanford researchers Marshall Burke, Eran Bendavid and Amy Pickering who also study climate change, are concerned by how little has been done to mitigate its effects on health.
There is still time to ease — though not eliminate — the worst effects on health, but as the average global temperature continues to creep upward, time appears to be running short.
“I think we are at a critical point right now in terms of mitigating the effects of climate change on health,” said Amy Pickering, a research engineer at the Woods Institute for the Environment. “And I don’t think that’s a priority of the new administration at all.”
Health effects of climate change
Even in countries like the United States that are well-equipped to adapt to climate change, health impacts will be significant.
“Extremes of temperature have a very observable direct effect,” said Eran Bendavid, an assistant professor of medicine and Stanford Health Policy core faculty member.
“We see mortality rates increase when temperatures are very low, and especially when they are very high.”
Bendavid also has seen air pollutants cause respiratory problems in people from Beijing to Los Angeles to villages in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Hotter temperatures make it such that particulate matter and dust and pollutants stick around longer,” he said.
In addition to respiratory issues, air pollution can have long-term cognitive effects. A study in Chile found that children who are exposed to high amounts of air pollution in utero score lower on math tests by the fourth grade.
“I think we’re only starting to understand the true costs of dirty air,” said Marshall Burke. “Even short-term exposure to low levels can have life-long effects.”
Low-income countries like Bangladesh already suffer widespread, direct health effects from rising sea levels. Salt water flooding has crept through homes and crops, threatening food sources and drinking water for millions of people.
“I think that flooding is one of the most pressing issues in low-income and densely populated countries,” said Pickering. “There’s no infrastructure there to handle it.”
Standing water left over from flooding is also a breeding ground for diseases like cholera, diarrhea and mosquito-borne illnesses, all of which are likely to become more prevalent as the planet warms.
On the flip side, many regions of Sub-Saharan Africa — where clean water is already hard to access — are likely to experience severe droughts. The United Nations warned last year that more than 36 million people across southern and eastern Africa face hunger due to drought and record-high temperatures.
Residents may have to walk farther to find water, and local sources could become contaminated more easily. Pickering fears that losing access to nearby, clean water will make maintaining proper hygiene and growing nutritious foods a challenge.
Climate change will affect health in all sectors of society.
All of these effects and more can also damage mental health, said Katherine Burke and her colleagues in their paper. The aftermath of extreme weather events and the hardships of living in long-term drought or flood can cause anxiety, depression, grief and trauma.
Climate change will affect health in every sector of society, but as Katherine Burke and her colleagues said, “….climate disruption is inflicting the greatest suffering on those least responsible for causing it, least equipped to adapt, least able to resist the powerful forces of the status quo.
“If we fail to act now,” they said, “the survival of our species may hang in the balance.”
What can the new administration do to ease health effects?
If the Paris Agreement’s emissions standards are met, scientists predict that the world’s temperature will increase about 2.7 degrees Celsius – still significant but less hazardous than the 4-degree increase projected from current emissions.
The United States plays a critical role in the Paris Agreement. Apart from the significance of cutting its own emissions, failing to live up to its end of the bargain — as the Trump administration has suggested — could have a significant impact on the morale of the other countries involved.
“The reason that Paris is going to work is because we’re in this together,” said Marshall Burke. “If you don’t meet your target, you’re going to be publicly shamed.”
The Trump administration has also discussed repealing the Clean Power Plan, Obama-era legislation to decrease the use of coal, which has been shown to contribute to respiratory disease.
“Withdrawing from either of those will likely have negative short- and long-run health impacts, both in the U.S. and abroad,” said Marshall Burke.
Scott Pruitt, who was confirmed today as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is expected to carry out Trump’s promise to dismantle environment regulations.
Despite the Trump administration’s apparent doubts about climate change, a few prominent Republicans do support addressing its effects.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the former chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobile, supports a carbon tax, which would create a financial incentive to turn to renewable energy sources. He also has expressed support for the Paris Agreement. It is possible that as secretary of state, Tillerson could help maintain U.S. obligations from the Paris Agreement, though it is far from certain whether he would choose to do so or how Trump would react.
More promising is a recent proposal from the Climate Leadership Council. Authored by eight leading Republicans — including two former secretaries of state, two former secretaries of the treasury and Rob Walton, Walmart’s former chairman of the board — the plan seeks to reduce emissions considerably through a carbon dividends plan.
Already an issue, malnutrition will increase with droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Their proposal would gradually increase taxes on carbon emissions but would return the proceeds directly to the American people. Americans would receive a regular check with their portion of the proceeds, similar to receiving a social security check. According to the authors, 70 percent of Americans would come out ahead financially, keeping the tax from being a burden on low- and middle-income Americans while still incentivizing lower emissions.
“A tax on carbon is exactly what we need to provide the right incentives and induce the sort of technological and infrastructure change needed to reduce long-term emissions,” said Marshall Burke.
Pickering added, “This policy is a ray of hope for meaningful action on climate.”
It remains to be seen whether the new administration and congress would consider such a program.
What can academics do to help?
Meanwhile, academics can promote health by researching the effects of climate change and finding ways to adapt to them.
“I think it’s fascinating that there’s just so little data right now on how climate change is going to impact health,” said Pickering.
Studying the effects of warming on the world challenges traditional methods of research.
“You can’t create any sort of experiment,” said Bendavid. “There’s only one climate and one planet.”
The scholars agree that interdisciplinary study is a critical part of adapting to climate change and that more research is needed.
“If ever there was an issue worthy of a leader’s best effort, this is the moment, this is the issue,” said Katherine Burke and her colleagues. “Time is short, but it may not be too late to make all the difference.”
Recent reviews of dietary intake data from Benin showed that recommended daily intakes of key micronutrients, such as vitamin A and Fe, were not met( 1 – 4 ). At the sub-national level, in northern Benin, macronutrient intakes are also too low( 5 , 6 ). Lack of dietary diversity is a particularly severe problem in Benin where diets are based predominantly on starchy staples with little or no animal products and few fresh fruits and vegetables( 1 , 2 , 7 ). According to the last Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) carried out in 2012, only 28 % of rural children satisfied the minimum diversity criterion of eating at least four out of seven food groups and 14 % consumed the minimum acceptable diet. In addition, the prevalence of stunting, wasting and underweight was respectively 40, 5 and 19 % among children aged 6–59 months, while 9 % of rural women had chronic energy deficiency (BMI<18·5 kg/m2)( 7 ). To improve the nutrition situation of women and children in Benin, the Ministry of Health has undertaken several interventions through its Strategic Plan for Food and Nutrition Development, comprising the supplementation of three major nutrients (vitamin A, Fe and iodine) and other promotive activities, such as exclusive breast-feeding, appropriate complementary feeding, and improved maternal and child nutrition( 8 ).
Despite the efforts of the line ministry and its stakeholders, Beninese women aged 15–49 years (41 %) and children aged 6–59 months (58 %) are significantly affected by anaemia with greater prevalence in rural areas( 7 ). Other nutritional data, such as Fe and vitamin A status, however, were not documented in the Benin 2012 DHS. In the 2006 Benin DHS, vitamin A deficiency (VAD) as measured by serum retinol <20 μg/dl was estimated to affect 66·0 % of children aged 12–71 months while the prevalence of night blindness was 11·8 % among pregnant women( 9 ). The few studies of micronutrient deficiencies among rural populations were conducted in specific localized groups and revealed greater prevalence rates of VAD among 12–71 month-old children (82 %) and pregnant women (14 %) in northern Benin( 9 ), while 33–49 % of children under 5 years of age were Fe deficient( 10 ). Until now, to our knowledge, there have been no population-based studies permitting generalization about the epidemiology of anaemia and its principal determinants in non-pregnant women, despite the problem being among the top ten causes of morbidities in the country( 11 , 12 ). The only study that identified anaemia risk factors among Beninese children was carried out in 2007 and found that incomplete immunization, stunted growth, recent infection, absence of a bednet, low household living standard, low maternal education and low community development index increased the risk of anaemia( 13 ).
As such, identifying the magnitude of anaemia and deficiencies of Fe and vitamin A and their determinants in high-risk groups, such as women of childbearing age and children, is essential for evidence-based intervention modalities, particularly in rural areas, where women and children may suffer not only from micronutrient deficiencies but also a shortage of food( 14 ). The present study is a very important step forward to avail of evidence-based information on the distribution of anaemia and micronutrient deficits and their predisposing diet and health factors among rural women and children in northern Benin. It will help understand the contemporary health profile of the rural populations of the study area in terms of dietary, socio-economic and environmental factors.
Temperature data are commonly used to estimate the sensitivity of many societally relevant outcomes, including crop yields, mortality, and economic output, to ongoing climate changes. In many tropical regions, however, temperature measures are often very sparse and unreliable, limiting our ability to understand climate change impacts. Here we evaluate satellite measures of near-surface temperature (Ts) as an alternative to traditional air temperatures (Ta) from weather stations, and in particular their ability to replace Ta in econometric estimation of climate response functions. We show that for maize yields in Africa and the United States, and for economic output in the United States, regressions that use Ts produce very similar results to those using Ta, despite the fact that daily correlation between the two temperature measures is often low. Moreover, for regions such as Africa with poor station coverage, we find that models with Ts outperform models with Ta, as measured by both R2 values and out-of-sample prediction error. The results indicate that Ts can be used to study climate impacts in areas with limited station data, and should enable faster progress in assessing risks and adaptation needs in these regions.
Joann de Zegher is one of nine selected as a SAWIT Challenge Finalist. She will be pitching her sustainable palm oil solution in Jakarta, Indonesia November 17-18, 2016.
FSE is excited to announce that graduate student, Joann de Zegher, is one of the nine innovators chosen in the SAWIT Challenge to pitch her solution to help independent smallholder farmers produce palm oil sustainably. She will present her idea to international businesses, government, and NGO leaders in Jakarta, Indonesia November 17-18, 2016.
The nine finalists submitted their ideas to solve the biggest challenges facing independent smallholder palm oil farmers in Indonesia: financing, farming inputs and best practices, mapping and land tenureship, market information, as well as product traceability and transparency. The innovations are designed to make sustainable, more profitable palm oil production.
The SAWIT Challenge is run by Smallholders Advancing with Technology and Innovation (SAWIT), a partnership between the Oil Palm Smallholders Union, and the Indonesia Business Council for Sustainable Development, with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development.
De Zegher’s solution offers a substantial price incentive to smallholder farmers who comply with buyer sustainability policies, but only passes on a very small portion of the cost to buyers. The innovation leverages the simple fact that small farmers and large buyers have substantially different cash flow needs. It also helps to shorten and strengthen the palm supply chain from smallholder farmers to mill.
Bangladeshi children make their way through flood waters.
Climate change will affect health in all sectors of society.
Already an issue, malnutrition will increase with droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa.