Diabetes
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Background: High childhood obesity prevalence has raised concerns about future adult health, generating calls for obesity screening of young children. 

Objective: To estimate how well childhood obesity predicts adult obesity and to forecast obesity-related health of future US adults. 

Design: Longitudinal statistical analyses; microsimulations combining multiple data sets. 

Data Sources: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Population Study of Income Dynamics, and National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Surveys.

Methods: The authors estimated test characteristics and predictive values of childhood body mass index to identify 2-, 5-, 10-, and 15 year-olds who will become obese adults. The authors constructed models relating childhood body mass index to obesity-related diseases through middle age stratified by sex and race.

Results: Twelve percent of 18-year-olds were obese. While screening at age 5 would miss 50% of those who become obese adults, screening at age 15 would miss 9%. The predictive value of obesity screening below age 10 was low even when maternal obesity was included as a predictor. Obesity at age 5 was a substantially worse predictor of health in middle age than was obesity at age 15. For example, the relative risk of developing diabetes as adults for obese white male 15-year-olds was 4.5 versus otherwise similar nonobese 15-year-olds. For obese 5-year-olds, the relative risk was 1.6. 

Limitation: Main results do not include Hispanics due to sample size. Past relationships between childhood and adult obesity and health may change in the future. 

Conclusion: Early childhood obesity assessment adds limited information to later childhood assessment. Targeted later childhood approaches or universal strategies to prevent unhealthy weight gain should be considered.

 

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
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Medical Decision Making
Authors
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Rachel Rubinfeld
Jay Bhattacharya
Jay Bhattacharya
Thomas N. Robinson
Paul H. Wise
Paul H. Wise
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0272989X12447240
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News
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Douglas Owens, director of the Center for Health Policy at FSI and the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research in the Department of Medicine and School of Medicine, has been appointed to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

The task force is an independent, volunteer panel of 16 experts in prevention and evidence-based medicine that makes recommendations and develops clinical guidelines for preventive services. They focus on issues including screening for breast cancer, colon cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer, diabetes, drug and alcohol misuse, and hepatitis C.

“These guidelines are used widely, and they address important issues for our veterans, and for the nation at large,” said Owens, the associate director of the Center for Health Care Evaluation at the VA Palo Alto Health Care System and the Henry J. Kaiser Jr. Professor at Stanford.

“I look forward to working with the Task Force.”

 

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To address growing concerns over childhood obesity, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently recommended that children undergo obesity screening beginning at age 6. An Expert Committee recommends starting at age 2. Analysis is needed to assess these recommendations and investigate whether there are better alternatives. We model the age- and sex-specific population-wide distribution of BMI through age 18 using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data. The impact of treatment on BMI is estimated using the targeted systematic review performed to aid the USPSTF. The prevalence of hypertension and diabetes at age 40 are estimated from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We fix the screening interval at 2 years, and derive the age- and sex-dependent BMI thresholds that minimize adult disease prevalence, subject to referring a specified percentage of children for treatment yearly. We compare this optimal biennial policy to biennial versions of the USPSTF and Expert Committee recommendations. Compared to the USPSTF recommendation, the optimal policy reduces adult disease prevalence by 3% in relative terms (the absolute reductions are <1%) at the same treatment referral rate, or achieves the same disease prevalence at a 28% reduction in treatment referral rate. If compared to the Expert Committee recommendation, the reductions change to 6 and 40%, respectively. The optimal policy treats mostly 16-year olds and few children under age 14. Our results suggest that adult disease is minimized by focusing childhood obesity screening and treatment on older adolescents.

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Journal Articles
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Obesity
Authors
Wein, L.M
Yang, Y.
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Authors
Adam Gorlick
News Type
News
Date
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As incomes rise around the world, health experts expect a more troubling figure to increase as well: the number of diabetics in developing countries.

In China and India – two of the world’s most populous nations with fast-paced economies – the prevalence of diabetes is expected to double by 2025. Between 15 and 20 percent of their adult population will develop the disease as household budgets increase, diets change to include more calories and new health problems emerge.

But China, India and other developing countries are not fully prepared to deal with the rising trend of diabetes. And a growing number of diabetics aren’t getting the care they need to prevent serious complications, Stanford researchers say.

Even with insurance, many diabetics don’t have essential medications that could help them manage their conditions. In many cases, people are spending a great deal of their household incomes to pay for their treatment, said Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine who led the research team.

“Public and private health insurance programs aren’t providing sufficient protection for diabetics in many developing countries,” said Goldhaber-Fiebert, a faculty member at Stanford Health Policy at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “People with insurance aren’t doing markedly better than those who don’t have it. Health insurance and health systems need to be re-oriented to better address chronic diseases like diabetes.”

Findings from the study are online and will be published in the Jan. 24 edition of Diabetes Care, the journal of the American Diabetes Association. The journal article was co-authored by Jay Bhattacharya, an associate professor of medicine and Stanford Health Policy faculty member; and Crystal Smith-Spangler, an instructor at Stanford’s Department of Medicine and an investigator at the Palo Alto VA Health Care System.

Failure to adequately manage diabetes will lead to more severe health problems like blindness, heart disease and kidney failure. It also harms the otherwise healthy, Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Diabetes often strikes people at an age when they’re taking care of children and elderly parents. To sideline these primary caretakers as dependants will lead to a heavy burden for communities and create an obstacle for economic growth, he added.

Using responses to a global survey conducted by the World Health Organization in 2002 and 2003, Goldhaber-Fiebert and his colleagues examined data from 35 low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe to determine whether diabetics with insurance were more likely to have medication than those without insurance.

They also wanted to know whether insured diabetics have a lower risk of “catastrophic medical spending,” a term the researchers define as spending more than 25 percent of a household income on medical care.

“Surprisingly, diabetics with insurance were no more likely to have the medications they need than uninsured diabetics,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said. “They were also no less likely to suffer catastrophic medical spending.”

There are many reasons why health insurance may not protect diabetics in developing countries against high out-of-pocket spending. In some cases, there’s a lack of sufficient medication – such as insulin – that regulate glucose levels. Without those drugs, there’s a greater risk of complications that often lead to more hospitalizations and more expenses.

In other cases, co-payments and deductibles are too high. Sometimes, drugs and medical services to prevent diabetes complications are not covered. And doctors and hospitals don’t always accept insurance.

“Better policies are needed to provide sufficient protection and care for diabetics in the developing world,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Without medications to manage diabetes and prevent secondary complications, the condition will worsen and the burden of catastrophic spending will increase, he said.

“It’s important to get ahead of the curve and prepare so there’s an infrastructure in place to deal with these health and cost issues,” he said.

While preventing diabetes in the first place would be ideal, programs and policies must be established to care for the many cases that will surely continue to exist.

“There isn’t a single country that’s managed to entirely arrest or reverse the trend of diabetes,” he said. “Programs that focus on primary prevention are extremely important, but the reality is that the developing world faces hundreds of millions of diabetes cases that are unlikely to all be prevented.”

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Aims:

We evaluated the factors associated with inpatient costs including total costs, pharmaceutical costs and laboratory costs for diabetes-related admissions.

Patients and Methods:

Using data for 960 adult patients admitted between May 2005 and April 2008 with a primary or secondary diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital affiliated with Zhejiang University Medical School (SRRSH) in Hangzhou, China, we evaluate the association between patient characteristics and inpatient costs with multivariable regression analyses.

Results:

Total inpatient costs were positively associated with age, higher UKPDS stroke risk score, and presence of any complication. A regression that included patient socioeconomic and clinical characteristics explained 21.5% of the variation in total inpatient costs; regression estimates indicate that patients with coronary artery disease, retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, and diabetic foot had inpatient costs that were respectively 93.7%, 14.0%, 17.5%, 11.5% and 89.0% higher than otherwise similar patients without those complications. Pharmaceutical costs did not differ by insurance coverage. Insured patients spent 7-16% more on laboratory tests than otherwise similar patients did.

Conclusions:

Clinical factors, especially presence of diabetes-related complications, appear to be the primary determinants of variation in inpatient costs for patients with type 2 DM in China. To mitigate the health costs increases associated with China's DM epidemic, policymakers should focus on cost-effective ways to manage patients in outpatient settings to prevent the complications associated with diabetes.

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Experimental and Clinical Endocrinology & Diabetes
Authors
H. Li
Brian Chen
Brian Chen
N. Shah
Z. Wang
Karen Eggleston
Karen Eggleston
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Abstract

BACKGROUND- The majority of current implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) recipients are significantly older than those in the ICD trials. Data on periprocedural complications among the elderly are insufficient. We evaluated the influence of age on perioperative complications among primary prevention ICD recipients in the United States. METHODS AND RESULTS- Using the National Cardiovascular Data's ICD Registry, we identified 150 264 primary prevention patients who received ICDs from January 2006 to December 2008. The primary end point was any adverse event or in-hospital mortality. Secondary end points included major adverse events, minor adverse events, and length of stay. Of 150 264 patients, 61% (n=91 863) were 65 years and older. A higher proportion of patients ≥65 years had diabetes, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, renal disease, and coronary artery disease. Approximately 3.4% of the entire cohort had any complication, including death, after ICD implant. Any adverse event or death occurred in 2.8% of patients under 65 years old; 3.1% of 65- to 69-year-olds; 3.5% of 70- to 74-year-olds; 3.9% of 75- to 79-year-olds, 4.5% of 80- to 84-year-olds; and 4.5% of patients 85 years and older. After adjustment for clinical covariates, multivariate analysis found an increased odds of any adverse event or death among 75- to 79-year-olds (1.14 [95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.25], 80-to 84-year-olds (1.22 [95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.36], and patients 85 years and older (1.15 [95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.32], compared with patients under 65 years old. CONCLUSIONS- Older patients had a modestly increased-but acceptably safe-risk of periprocedural complications and in-hospital mortality, driven mostly by increased comorbidity.

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Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes
Authors
Vivian Tsai
Mary K. Goldstein
Mary K. Goldstein
Hsia HH
Wang Y
Curtis J
Heidenreich PA
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Abstract

The diabetic Charcot foot syndrome is a serious and potentially limb-threatening lower-extremity complication of diabetes. First described in 1883, this enigmatic condition continues to challenge even the most experienced practitioners. Now considered an inflammatory syndrome, the diabetic Charcot foot is characterized by varying degrees of bone and joint disorganization secondary to underlying neuropathy, trauma, and perturbations of bone metabolism. An international task force of experts was convened by the American Diabetes Association and the American Podiatric Medical Association in January 2011 to summarize available evidence on the pathophysiology, natural history, presentations, and treatment recommendations for this entity.

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Journal of the American Podiatric Medical Association
Authors
Rogers LC
Frykberg RG
Armstrong DG
Boulton AJ
Edmonds M
Van GH
Hartemann A
Game F
Jeffcoate W
Jirkovska A
Jude E
Morbach S
Morrison WB
Pinzur M
Pitocco D
Lee M. Sanders
Lee Sanders
Wukich DK
Uccioli L
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Clinical practice guidelines aim to help providers make decisions that optimize patient care (1). Both developers and users of guidelines understand that guidelines could be improved by tailoring the recommendations to the specific circumstances of an individual patient. Tailored guideline recommendations may improve health outcomes when a group of patients can be divided into subgroups in which the tailored recommendations would increase benefits, reduce harms, or save costs relative to more generic recommendations. For example, a guideline for hypertension may recommend antihypertensive treatment in patients whose blood pressure is higher than 140/90 mm Hg. However, patients with diabetes or high cardiovascular risk may benefit from receiving treatment at lower blood pressures, whereas other patients may benefit from less aggressive treatment.

However, for both guideline developers and clinicians, tailoring recommendations is easier said than done. Developers of guidelines face a difficult tradeoff: Issue simplified, easy-to-follow guidelines or, instead, guidelines targeted more precisely to each patient, at the cost of greater complexity and more challenging implementation. In addition, little evidence may exist to guide how to tailor recommendations, because trials may exclude patients who have the comorbid conditions and other factors that would warrant tailoring a recommendation.

Clinicians also may have far more information about an individual patient than even complex guidelines can accommodate. Should a patient with atrial fibrillation receive guideline-concordant anticoagulation therapy even if he or she is at increased risk for falls? Such …

This 100-word excerpt has been provided in the absence of an abstract.

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Annals of Internal Medicine
Authors
Douglas K. Owens
Douglas Owens
Authors
Sarah Bhatia
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When Siyan Yi was a medical student in Cambodia 12 years ago, he volunteered with a collaborative government-NGO project to provide young women at high risk for HIV/AIDS—the victims of sexual exploitation—with housing, vocational training, medical care, and psychological support. Cambodia at that time had one of Asia’s highest HIV-infection rates.

That rate has dropped by half, thanks to government policy measures, international NGO support, and the efforts of medical professionals like Yi. Cambodia’s government must now find ways to curb HIV infection in new segments of the population, says Yi, who is the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s inaugural Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow. Sustaining funding for the long-term care of HIV-infected individuals also poses a future challenge, he explains, and new health issues associated with development are beginning to crop up.

Cambodia’s first HIV case was detected in 1991 in a blood donor, and the rate of HIV/AIDS increased dramatically throughout the decade. HIV/AIDS hit Thailand slightly earlier, and was spread through the commercial sex trade. The epidemic reached an even greater scale there than it ever did in Cambodia.

Thailand’s government struck back with a 100-percent condom use promotion program, which Cambodia successfully adopted in the late 1990s. Brothels are illegal in Cambodia, but the government worked cooperatively with owners to provide basic HIV/AIDS education to sex workers. These efforts significantly reduced the transmission of HIV.

Since then, a more indirect form of prostitution has sprung up in places such as karaoke halls, massage parlors, restaurants, and even in factories. HIV prevalence remains high among some sentinel groups such as female sex workers, beer promoters, men who have sex with men (MSM), injected-drug users, and migrant workers.

Yi advocates that the government expand the scope of its HIV/AIDS prevention programs to encompass these new at-risk populations. He even suggests that the government consider creating a system of licensed brothels such as previously existed in Hong Kong and Taiwan. “It would provide the government with an easier means of controlling prostitution, and allow it to work with brothel owners to control HIV-infection rates,” states Yi.

HIV increases the risk of contracting or developing symptoms of tuberculosis; a large proportion of Cambodia’s population carries the disease but shows no signs of it. Tuberculosis went largely undetected during the decades of the Khmer Rouge regime, but with the advent of HIV/AIDS it has become more prevalent. Yi has been involved in government-NGO projects to provide tuberculosis screening for HIV patients, including a tuberculosis control project with the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Tuberculosis screening and HIV treatment advances may greatly prolong the life—and even improve the health—of patients. But heartening as Cambodia’s success against HIV/AIDS has proven in the past decade, the government largely bears the responsibility for funding the expensive treatment and care for the low-income individuals most affected by it. A critical portion of government funding for its HIV/AIDS prevention programs comes from external organizations. 

“I think that the main issue for the government of Cambodia in the battle against HIV and AIDS is financial sustainability,” says Yi, who worries that donor agencies will withdraw support as the HIV-infection rate continues to improve. Prevention is less expensive, he explains, but long-term care is costly to a developing country such as Cambodia.

Yi, however, feels less concerned now about the HIV/AIDS epidemic and speaks hopefully of working to help the government find ways to measure and treat non-communicable diseases associated with economic development, such as diabetes and hypertension. While he is at Stanford, he will collaborate with Asia Health Policy Program researchers to move his work toward solving Cambodia’s new health challenges.

Inaugurated in 2011, the Siyan Yi is designed to bring leading health policy experts from low-income Asian countries to Stanford for three to 12 months. Fellows will work on conceptualizing and launching collaborative research on a topic of importance for health policy in their country. Details about the 2011–12 application will become available during Winter Quarter 2012.

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