Stanford University

Cleantech

Making Carbon Offsets Work in the Developing World: Lessons from the Chinese Wind Controversy

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The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the leading international carbon market and a driving force for sustainable development globally. But the eruption of controversy over offsets from Chinese wind power has exposed cracks at the core of how carbon credits are verified in developing economies. It has become almost impossible to determine whether offsets from Chinese wind are "additional" and that they in fact represent "real" reductions beyond business as usual. Unless this problem can be resolved, it threatens to spread beyond wind in China and could threaten the ability of carbon markets to deliver the mitigation demanded by international climate policy.

In 2009 the CDM Executive Board (EB) shocked the carbon market by forcing an unprecedented review of whether multiple Chinese wind projects satisfied UNFCCC additionality requirements. CDM investors reeled as the safest CDM bet became the riskiest; the Chinese government publicly criticized the UN's oversight of carbon markets; and the CDM EB prepared itself for an unprecedented fight over how carbon offsets could be verified in the world's largest CDM market.

At the center of the controversy is the Chinese power tariff for wind.

When the EB observed decreases over time in power tariffs granted by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to wind projects, it became concerned that China might be manipulating power tariffs in order to guarantee additionality and subsidize its domestic wind development with international finance. If the Chinese government were controlling additionality, then the CDM's ability to validate carbon offsets would be dealt a near‐lethal blow because the problems posed by Chinese wind extend to nearly all power sector projects in almost every developing country. If offsets cannot be credibly verified, then the integrity of emissions caps set by the Kyoto Protocol is directly threatened.

The Chinese wind controversy therefore has direct implications for the design and negotiation of any successor to the Kyoto Protocol. Despite largely failed negotiations in Copenhagen, the design of reliable, efficient carbon markets remains the world's most serious prospect for international cooperation. The developed world has committed USD 30 billion in climate aid by 2012, but the majority of these funds will likely have to be private capital delivered through markets. In order for carbon markets to avoid controversy and function effectively, the lessons from the Chinese wind controversy must be used to implement key reforms.

This report examines the application of additionality in the Chinese wind power market and draws implications for the design of effective global carbon offset policy. It demonstrates the causes of the wind power controversy, highlights underlying structural flaws in how additionality is applied in China, and charts a reform path that can strengthen the credibility of global carbon markets.

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Working Papers
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #90
Authors
Gang He
Gang He
Richard K. Morse

Energy Working Group talk: The Controversy over Chinese Wind in the Clean Development Mechanism: Implications for Strengthening Global Carbon Offset Policy

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Gang He and Richard Morse examine one of the biggest controversies in the global carbon market - the additionality of Chinese wind power in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).   Addressing and moving beyond the binary question of whether such projects do or do not represent "real" CO2 reductions, they use insights drawn from detailed analysis of the entire Chinese wind CDM portfolio to argue that the current legal and economic structure of additionality is unworkable in the Chinese power sector when one takes into account how regulation and policy in those markets actually function. 

Therefore under the current CDM additionality regime, additionality cannot be credibly verified for Chinese wind - a problem that extends to multiple types of energy projects in numerous developing countries.  In short, the controversy over Chinese wind illustrates the need for large-scale reforms of how the world validates carbon credits in developing world power sectors.  In a post-Kyoto world that envisions a greatly expanded role for international carbon offsets, ensuring the integrity of carbon markets through smarter policy engagement with countries like China is more important than ever.

Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
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Research Associate
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Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Richard K. Morse Speaker
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PESD Researchers in Copenhagen for the United Nation's Climate Change Conference

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PESD researchers Richard K. Morse and Gang He are in Copenhagen attending international climate negotiations at the UN's COP 15.  Key issues in PESD's research platform are prominently featured in the event: carbon capture and storage, reform of the clean development mechanism (CDM), Chinese energy markets, carbon markets,  the future of coal and gas and global emissions, the smart grid, and a host of other topics central to the future of the global energy system.  Richard and Gang are testing their latest research with some of the world's key decision markers on energy and climate and sharing Stanford and PESD insights in this global forum.

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Modeling Energy Efficient Cities

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An integrated approach based on a case study of a new neighborhood in the provincial capital of Jinan in Shandong, China

As part of SPRIE's current research on entrepreneurship and innovation in the green/cleantech space, we are pleased to present this seminar in cooperation with the Precourt Institute for Energy.

About the talk

This presentation will discuss an effort to integrate building energy and emission models with traffic simulation tools, in order to develop integrated urban energy and emission models. The assessment of the environmental impacts of transportation systems does not commonly include an analysis of the effects on building energy use. Similarly, neighborhood level building energy simulations often overlook the impacts of the density of the built environment and the configuration of the street network. Based on a case study of a masterplan for a new neighborhood in Jinan, Shandong Province, China, the modeling approach presented here aims to capture the way the built environment and transportation networks influence each other in terms of energy use and carbon emissions. The goal is to develop a more accurate method to evaluate and compare the environmental performance of various transportation and land use projects.

About the speaker

Nicolae Duduta is a dual Master’s candidate in Transportation Planning and Architecture at UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design. He has an undergraduate degree in Architecture and Sustainable Development from the National School of Architecture in Lyon, France.

For the past three years, he has worked as a research assistant  to Prof. Elizabeth Deakin at the Berkeley Center for Global Metropolitan Studies. Recent projects include developing planning guidelines for future High-Speed Rail stations in the Central Valley of California, and advising local governments in China to assess the environmental impacts of new urban developments.

His interests include sustainable transportation and urban design, and his recent work has focused on developing tools to evaluate the environmental performance of neighborhoods, by analyzing the performance of buildings, transportation systems, water and waste treatment and infrastructure.

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Nicolae Duduta Speaker University of California, Berkeley
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PESD research fellow Varun Rai is featured in the Harvard International Review

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In a new article in the Fall 2009 issue of the Harvard International Review PESD research fellow Varun Rai discusses the critical elements of effective international carbon offsets markets. The article argues that fundamental problems of perverse incentives and huge transaction costs render the clean development mechanism (CDM) unfit as the backbone of international carbon offsets markets post-2012. Instead, the article emphasizes the need for multilateral deals around large sectors that leverage synergies between climate change benefits and the core interests of developing countries.
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Promoting Clean Development Competing Market Mechanisms Post-2012

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(Excerpt) According to climate scientists, averting the worst consequences of climate change requires that the increase in global temperature should be limited to 2°C (or 3.6°F). to achieve that objective, global emissions of green house gases (GHGs)—the main human cause of global warming—must be reduced to 50 percent of 1990 levels by 2050.

The key to successful climate change abatement at those scales lies in leveraging the collective actions of developed and developing countries. Cumulatively, developed countries have been responsible for most human emissions of GHGs. that picture will be quite different in the future as emissions from the developing world take over the top mantle. Given this dynamic, there is a general agreement internationally that developed countries will lead emissions reductions efforts and that developing countries will follow with “nationally ap- propriate mitigation actions.” turning that agreement into environmentally beneficial action requires close international coordination between the developed and developing countries in allocating the responsibility for the necessary reductions and following up with credible actions. However, the instruments employed so far to promote the necessary collective action have proved to be insufficient, unscalable, and questionable in terms of environmental benefit and economic efficiency.

Currently, the most important and visible link be- tween developed and developing countries’ efforts on climate change is the Clean development Mechanism (CdM). the CdM uses market mechanisms—the “carbon markets”—to direct funding from developed countries to those projects in developing countries that lead to reductions in emissions of warming gases. In reality, the experience with the CdM has been mixed at best since its inception in 2006. while the CdM has successfully channeled funding to many worthy projects that reduce emissions of warming gasses, it has also spawned myriad projects with little environmental benefits. overall, the CdM has led to a significant overpayment by developed countries for largely dubious emissions reductions in developing countries.

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Harvard International Review
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Varun Rai
Varun Rai

Benchmarking the Global VC Industry -- Emerging vs. Mature Markets

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This presentation will compare the more mature venture capital markets of the United States, Europe, and Israel with the larger emerging venture capital markets of China and India.

Most analyses being presented are as recent as the second and third quarters of 2009 and will include:

  1. Venture capital investment by number of deals and dollar amounts by stage and industry
  2. Valuation benchmarks by industry and geography
  3. Exit benchmarks by industry sector and exchange 
  4. Comparing specific differences of startups through their life cycles
  5. Venture capital firms investing in other geographies
  6. Cleantech deals and their latest performances

The methodology used in the analysis differs from the traditional Western model (comparison by round), since the investment patterns in emerging markets are very different.

About the speaker:

Dr. Martin Haemmig's venture capital research covers 13 countries in Asia, Europe, Israel, and USA. He lectures and/or performs research at numerous universities across the U.S., Europe, China and India. He has authored books on the Globalization of Venture Capital. He is Senior Advisor on Venture Capital at SPRIE and advises on venture capital for China's Zhongguancun Science Park. Martin Haemmig earned his electronics degree in Switzerland and his MBA and doctorate in California, and worked for almost 20 years in global high-tech companies in Asia, Europe and the U.S. before returning to his academic career. He became Swiss national champion in marketing in 1994.

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Martin Haemmig Speaker
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The Globalization of Cleantech: The Fifth Annual Globalization of Services Conference

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Silicon Valley is increasingly invested in clean technologies and is already looked upon as a global leader in new technological development. As happens with most new technologies in their infancy, Silicon Valley's focus is currently on component manufacturing. However, a difference from earlier technology cycles is the upfront impact of globalization, especially the emergence of China and India as providers of skilled labor and large markets.  Accordingly, the globalization of cleantech could follow some well-trodden paths and some new ones:

  1. As manufacturing gets modularized, firms such as Applied Materials might shift component work to East Asia. Some of this is already happening.
  2. System integration and other service provision might increasingly be provided by the large Indian system integrators. As of 2009, however, there is little evidence of this happening.
  3. Firms in Europe and East Asia have been investing in cleantech for some time now, and might participate in technological leadership. 

In each case, we are interested in exploring the time-frame and the driving forces.   These will typically be outcomes of a mix of regulatory, domestic market and skills issues.

The conference, the fifth in the annual series on the Globalization of Services, will likely host about 20 academics and 40 corporates, as with past events. 

Presentations are planned by firms in Silicon Valley in the fields of component manufacturing, systems integration and service provision; by overseas service providers on how outsourcing in these areas improves outcomes in terms of strategic direction, efficiency, cost-savings and accountability; by OEMs on supply-chain linkages with service outsourcers; and by venture capitalists and consultants on how their work helps the process of outsourcing cleantech services.

Registration is required for this event ($30 by Dec. 4, $45 late) and includes continental breakfast, lunch and free parking. Use the RSVP link at the top of the page to register.

Information on the previous Globalization of Services conference, including presentations, is available here.

8:00 Registration and Breakfast
8:30 Welcome and Objectives
Rafiq Dossani
8:35-9:15

Keynote: Fostering the Green Economy--The Case of California
Ricardo Martinez Garcia, Deputy Secretary, California Environmental Protection Agency
9:15-10:30 Panel: Cleantech technology trends
Marc Hoffman, Glacier Bay | Ajit Nazre, Kleiner Perkins | Swaminathan Venkataraman, Standard & Poor's
Lead discussant: Professor Dimitris Assimakopoulos, Grenoble School of Management, France
10:30-10:45 Break
10:45-12:30 Panel: Software and services
Chris Farinacci, Hara.com | Matt Denesuk, IBM | Sai Gundavelli, Solix
Lead discussant: Professor Petri Rouvinen, ETLA Finland
12:30-1:45 Lunch
1:30-3:30 Panel: Manufacturing
Charles Consorte, Zeptor | Chris D'Couto, Neah | Marc Hoffman, Glacier Bay
Lead discussant: Professor Margot Gerritsen, Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University
3:30-3:50 Break
3:50-5:30 Panel: Globalization
Rafiq Dossani, Stanford | Joe Muscat, Ernst and Young | Bob Nelson, Akin Gump | Sean Wang, ITRI | Tomoya Yamashiki, Toray Industries (America) Inc.
Lead discussant: Henry Rowen, Stanford University

 

This conference is the 5th annual "Globalization of Services" conference, made possible through the generosity and efforts of ETLA, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, the University of Colorado, Denver and Wipro.

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South Asia Initiative
Globalization of Services Conference

Innovations in Energy Efficiency: California, Taiwan and Mainland China

There is a potential for large gains in the efficiency of energy use with substantial economic payoffs: in buildings, motor vehicles, traffic control, electricity grids, industry. All of these applications involve the use of information technologies. This workshop will focus on demand and efficiency topics that are becoming increasingly salient.

This invitation-only workshop involves three important actors on the world energy scene: California and Mainland China are large consumers of oil while Taiwan, for its size a substantial consumer of oil and emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a leading role in information technologies. California’s size and commitment to energy efficiency makes its role an important one within the US while China’s ongoing urbanization has major energy implications.

This workshop is the first in a series with the goal of convening leading experts from these three regions to focus on key energy-economic efficiency issues, form a research agenda and collaborate on possible solutions.

Topics for discussion will include:

  • strategic policy choices, especially the challenges posed by cap-and-trading of carbon emissions
  • improving industry use of energy
  • urbanization 2.0: transportation and buildings
  • how IT helps green the planet, including the use of smart meters 
  • how consumers respond to better data
  • new venture capital investments in clean tech
  • energy efficiency start-ups in Silicon Valley

Preliminary agenda:

Day 1: Tuesday, February 17

8:00 am – 8:30 am Check-in and Continental Breakfast

8:30 am – 8:45 am Introduction

Professor Henry Rowen, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

8:45 am – 9:45 am Keynote

“How to Think About Energy Efficiency” 
Dr. James Sweeney, Director, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

10:00 am Strategic Choices

Moderator: Marguerite Hancock, Associate Director, SPRIE 

10:00 am – 10:45 am

Overview: “Trading Carbon in California”   
Dr. Lawrence Goulder, Chair, Economics Department, Stanford University; Member, California Public Utilities Commission

10:45 am – 12:00 pm Panel

“Taiwan’s 2025 Carbon Reduction Goals: Options and Challenges” 
Dr. Robert J. Yang, Senior Advisor, Industrial Technology Research Institute

“A Synthesis of Energy Tax, Carbon Tax and CO2 Emission Trading System in Taiwan” 
Dr. Chi-Yuan Liang, Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica & Professor, National Central University

“Measurement of Energy Efficiency in Taiwan and Relevance to CO2 Decoupling” 
Dr. Chung-Huang Huang, Dean, College of Transportation and Tourism, Kainan University and Professor, Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University

1:00 pm Industry Uses

Moderator: Dr. Chin-Tay Shih, Dean of College of Technology Management, National Tsing-Hua University

1:00 pm – 1:45 pm

Overview: “Improving Energy Efficiency in Industry” 
Dr. Eric Masanet, Principal Scientific Engineering Associate, Energy Analysis Dept., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1:45 pm – 3:00 pm Panel

“Technology R&D and Industry Development of Distributed Energy System in Taiwan”
Dr. Hsin-Sen Chu, Executive Vice President, Industrial Technology Research Institute

“Energy Saving Potential and Trend Analysis in Taiwan” 
Dr. Jyh-Shing Yang, Senior Consultant, IEK/ITRI and Professor, National Central University

“Industrial innovation toward low carbon economy in Hsinchu Science Park”
Dr. Kung Wang, Professor, School of Management, National Central University, Taiwan

3:15 pm – 5:30 pm The Urban Environment: Buildings and Transportation

Moderator: Dr. William Miller, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

Framing Remarks: Dr. Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

"Integrated management of energy performance of buildings, building portfolios, and cities"
Dr. Martin Fischer, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Director, Center for Integrated Facility Engineering, Stanford University

“Challenges, priorities and strategies for energy efficiency in the electric car industry”
Mr. Fred Ni, General Manager, BYD America Corporation

"Urban Motorization in China: Energy Challenges and Solutions"
Ms. Wei-Shiuen Ng, Consultant, previously with World Resources Institute

Title TBA—delivered via video link
Mr. David Nieh, General Manager of Planning and Development, Shui On Land Corporation

 

Commentator: Dr. Fang Rong, Researcher, Center for Industrial Development & Environmental Governance, Tsinghua University

 

Day 2: Wednesday, February 18

8:00 am – 8:30 am Check-in and Continental Breakfast

8:30 am How IT Helps Green the Planet

Moderator: Dr. John Weyant, Deputy Director, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

8:30 am – 9:00 am

“Challenges for Energy Efficiency Innovation and Convergence with Green Environmental Technology”
Dr. Simon C. Tung, General Director, Energy and Environmental Research Laboratories, ITRI

9:00 am – 10:00 am Panel: Two Perspectives on California Initiatives

“Demand Response: Time-differentiating technologies, rates, programs, metrics and customer behavior” 

Dr. Joy Morgenstern, California Public Utilities Commission

“The PG&E Smart Meter Program” 
Ms. Jana Corey, Director of AMI Initiatives, The Pacific Gas and Electric Co.

10:00 am – 10:30 am

Overview: “Behavioral Responses”
Dr. Carrie Armel, Research Associate, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency

10:45 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. A Conversation on IT’s Impact on Energy

Moderator: Professor Henry Rowen, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

  • Dr. Banny Banerjee, Associate Professor, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
  • Dr. Sam Chiu, Professor, Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University 
  • Dr. Hsin-Sen Chu, Executive Vice President, Industrial Technology Research Institute
  • Dr. Lee Schipper, Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University

1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Operating in the Cleantech Space

Moderator: Dr. Craig Lawrence, Accel Partners

  • Mr. Mike Harrigan, VP Business Development, Coulomb Technology (charging hardware and software infrastructure for electric vehicles)
  • Mr. David Leonard, CEO Redwood Systems (LED lighting management systems)
  • Mr. Frank Paniagua, Jr., CEO GreenPlug (intelligent DC charging for consumer electronics devices)

3:15 p.m – 4:30 p.m. A Venture Capital Perspective

Moderator: Dr. William Miller, Co-Director, Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

  • Mr. Maurice Gunderson, Senior Partner, CMEA Capital
  • Dr. Marc Porat, CEO, Calstar Cement
  • Dr. Marianne Wu, Mohr Davidow Ventures
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    Henry S. Rowen

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    FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
    H_Rowen_headshot.jpg

    Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

    In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

    Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

    Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

    Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
    Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
    Henry S. Rowen Moderator
    William F. Miller Moderator
    Marguerite Gong Hancock Moderator
    Workshops

    Measuring the Clean Development Mechanism's Performance and Potential

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    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol is the first global attempt to address a global environmental public goods problem with a market-based mechanism. The CDM is a carbon credit market where sellers, located exclusively in developing countries, can generate and certify emissions reductions that can be sold to buyers located in developed countries. Since 2004 it has grown rapidly and is now a critical component of developed-country government and private-firm compliance strategies for the Kyoto Protocol. This Article presents an overview of the development and current shape of the market, then examines two important classes of emission reduction projects within the CDM and argues that they both point to the need for reform of the international climate regime in the post-Kyoto era, albeit in different ways. Potential options for reforming the CDM and an alternative mechanism for financing emissions reductions in developing countries are then presented and discussed.

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    UCLA Law Review
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    Michael Wara
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