Stanford University

Coal

The downstream air pollution impacts of the transition from coal to natural gas in the United States

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The recent shift in the United States from coal to natural gas as a primary feedstock for the production of electric power has reduced the intensity of sectoral carbon dioxide emissions, but—due to gaps in monitoring—its downstream pollution-related effects have been less well understood. Here, I analyse old units that have been taken offline and new units that have come online to empirically link technology switches to observed aerosol and ozone changes and subsequent impacts on human health, crop yields and regional climate. Between 2005 and 2016 in the continental United States, decommissioning of a coal-fired unit was associated with reduced nearby pollution concentrations and subsequent reductions in mortality and increases in crop yield. In total during this period, the shutdown of coal-fired units saved an estimated 26,610 (5%–95% confidence intervals (CI), 2,725–49,680) lives and 570 million (249–878 million) bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat in their immediate vicinities; these estimates increase when pollution transport-related spillovers are included. Changes in primary and secondary aerosol burdens also altered regional atmospheric reflectivity, raising the average top of atmosphere instantaneous radiative forcing by 0.50 W m−2. Although there are considerable benefits of decommissioning older coal-fired units, the newer natural gas and coal-fired units that have supplanted them are not entirely benign.

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Nature Sustainability
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Jennifer Burney

Thurber talks at UBC about coal

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On September 17, PESD Associate Director Mark Thurber spoke at the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Vancouver, BC about findings from his new book Coal (available on Amazon). 

Coal burning is the largest single contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and it's also responsible for a host of regional and local impacts including serious air pollution. The challenge is that many developing countries still lean on coal as the cheapest and most accessible fuel for rapidly scaling their energy sectors. Coal also provides, directly and indirectly, sorely-needed livelihoods for millions of people around the world.

Along with UBC professors Kathryn Harrison and Philippe Le Billon, Thurber considered the challenge of transitioning away from coal in a way that avoids leaving displaced coal workers behind. He urged the audience to be "climate hawks" instead of "renewables hawks," prioritizing greenhouse gas emissions reductions over our favorite technological solutions, and to be "livelihoods hawks" instead of "green livelihoods hawks," recognizing that jobs of any kind are of paramount importance to those without them.
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Thurber featured on CSIS podcast

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On June 17, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber talked with Nikos Tsafos from CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) on the CSIS Energy 360° podcast.  During the podcast, Thurber discussed his new book, Coal, and the geopolitics and economics of continued coal use in energy versus the needs and concerns at the local, national, and global levels.

Energy 360° examines the energy landscape from the intersection of policy, markets, technologies, and geopolitics. With commentary from leading energy and CSIS experts, the podcast provides context and perspective on the most critical issues shaping energy today and is hosted by the CSIS Energy and National Security Program.

 

 

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Thurber speaks in DC on coal-gas competition

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Mark C. Thurber
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber was a panelist at the 2019 Energy Security Workshop in Washington, D.C., where he spoke about why LNG (liquefied natural gas) struggles to compete with coal. The event took place on May 29th and was jointly hosted by the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
 
The competitive disadvantage for LNG is twofold. First, LNG is almost always more expensive than coal. Second, the LNG value chain is more difficult to stitch together. The high cost of LNG infrastructure -- which includes liquefaction plants, LNG tankers, and regasification facilities at the receiving end -- means it will only be built if there is a creditworthy end-use customer willing to pay high prices for gas over a long period of time. But potential customers, for their part, are unlikely to build out gas-using applications until they are certain that gas will reliably be available. This value chain coordination problem is especially severe in countries with limited existing infrastructure for gas transportation and use.

The net result, Thurber concluded, is that LNG will struggle to gain ground against coal, especially for use in the power sector, until countries more explicitly factor environmental factors (where gas has a significant advantage over coal) into their energy markets. (Thurber discusses these and other challenges in replacing coal in his new book, Coal, which is available at https://www.amazon.com/Coal-Resources-Mark-C-Thurber/dp/1509514015)
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Thurber launches book, talks coal in Germany

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Mark C. Thurber
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In no other developed country is the role of coal in the energy mix more hotly debated than in Germany. The country has been a leader in renewable energy development, but it also continues to mine and burn substantial quantities of coal, which has thus far blunted its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Germany hopes to phase out all coal use by 2038, though this target is made more challenging by its concurrent effort to phase out nuclear energy.


Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber marked the European launch of his new book COAL with talks at two German universities. On April 8, Dr. Thurber joined a panel of distinguished experts in a public seminar at EWI (Institute of Energy Economics) at the University of Cologne, where the topic was the possibility of phasing out coal in Germany and elsewhere. On April 9, at the University of Mannheim, Thurber was the speaker for the first joint seminar hosted by ZEW and the Mannheim Institute for Sustainable Energy Studies. Before we can move beyond coal, Thurber told these audiences, we first need to understand and address the enduring sources of coal's appeal, including its low cost (at least when full environmental costs are not taken into account) and perceived value for energy security and reliability (whether this perception is accurate or not). 

thurber mannheim coal talk Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber introduces his new book "Coal" and participates in a seminar hosted by ZEW and the Mannheim Institute fo Sustainable Energy Studies on April 9, 2019.

PESD Associate Director Mark Thurber introduces his new book "Coal" and participates in a seminar hosted by ZEW and the Mannheim Institute for Sustainable Energy Studies on April 9, 2019.
Photo credit: Julia Glashauser, ZEW

 

 

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