The Web of Power: How Elite Networks Shaped War and China

Scholars have argued that powerful individuals can influence the path of a nation's development. Yet, the process through which individuals affect macro-level political economy outcomes remains unclear.  This study uses the deadliest civil war in history, the Taiping Rebellion (1850--1864), to elucidate how one individual---Zeng Guofan---employed his personal elite networks to organize an army that suppressed the rebellion, and how these networks consequently affected the power distribution of the nation. Two findings stand out: (i) counties with more elites in Zeng's pre-war networks experienced more soldier deaths after he took power; and (ii) the post-war political power shifted significantly toward the home counties of these very elites, which created a less-balanced national-level power distribution.  Our findings highlight the role of elite networks that propagate individual-level influences to shape national politics and the distribution of power in a society. 

About the Speaker

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Ruixue Jia is a Visiting Senior Fellow at London School of Economics and an Associate Professor of Economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. She is interested in the interplay of economics, history and politics. One stream of her research focuses on understanding elite formation and elite influence, in both historical and modern contexts. A second focus of her work is the deep historical roots of economic development. More recently, she started following the ongoing transformation of the manufacturing sector in China and expanded her interest to labor and technology issues. For more information, please visit her personal site.

This event will be held in-person at Stanford University, however, the lecture will be recorded. If you are interested in viewing the recording, please contact Debbie Aube.

Questions? Contact Debbie Aube at debbie.aube@stanford.edu

CDDRL's Fisher Family Honors Program trains students from any academic department at Stanford to prepare them to write a policy-relevant research thesis with global impact on a subject touching on democracy, development, and the rule of law. For our final Spring 2022 seminar, please join us to hear our Honors Program award winners present their research.

Adrian Scheibler, Firestone Medal winner
 

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Thesis Title: Challenging the State: Western European Regionalism in the Era of Financial Crisis

Abstract: The Global Financial Crisis and its aftershocks have substantially altered the Western European political landscape. But while the literature has extensively focused on the impacts of the economic hardship on traditional party competition, it has often failed to consider the center-periphery dimension. My thesis addresses both the demand for and supply of regionalist ideologies during the crisis. Using an original dataset containing 8 countries, 35 regions, and 128 regionalist parties, it finds that voters did not increase their support for regionalist parties during the crisis and may have even turned their backs on these political actors. In addition, I consider the reactions of regionalist parties in three Spanish autonomous communities - Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Galicia - to the crisis. I find evidence of regionalist mobilization on the issue and even some indications of radicalization of regionalist demands. Taken together, these findings raise interesting implications for the impacts of the financial crisis and the interaction between economic indicators, party competition, and voting patterns.

Michal Skreta, CDDRL Outstanding Thesis winner
 

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Major: Economics and Political Science
Thesis Advisor: Larry Diamond

Thesis Title: Babies, Money, and Power: Estimating Causal Effects of the “Family 500+” Child Benefit Program in Poland using the Synthetic Control Method

Abstract: The ‘Family 500+” child benefit program introduced in April 2016 by the government of Poland has become the single most expensive component of Polish social policy expenditure, yet past studies have rarely estimated the effects of the program through causal methods. In a novel application within this context, I propose using the synthetic control method as a causal identification strategy to empirically estimate country-level treatment effects of the program on fertility, poverty, and inequality. Treating 500+ as a natural experiment, I compare observational data from actual Poland with a synthetic counterfactual of Poland constructed from a weighted donor pool of other European countries through a data-driven selection procedure. My findings on fertility metrics are consistent with prior studies, being ambiguous and insignificant, indicating that the main short-term objective of the program has not been achieved. Meanwhile, I find that the program causally reduced the rate of people at risk of poverty in Poland by over 16%, including by more than 23% among children. I also find that the child benefit has led to a significant reduction in income inequality, being causally responsible for a decline of 5.9% in the Gini index and of 8.0% in the income quintile share ratio. While significant, the results on poverty and inequality are weaker than initially anticipated. My results are robust under in-space treatment reassignment placebo studies. The findings contribute to a growing literature on the causal effects of child benefit policy interventions applied on an aggregate unit level.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Register: https://bit.ly/3Ncvj7B

AHPP “Aligning incentives” series final webinar: May 12th 6pm PDT, May 13th 9am in Hong Kong and Singapore

How has Myanmar’s health system dealt with the devastation caused by the coup and the pandemic, and what are the current opportunities and challenges for response and recovery? In this panel of two experts, Dr. Thin Zaw will first discuss how Myanmar’s health system and health workforce are endeavoring to respond to the syndemic crisis, a deadly combination of the global pandemic, the military coup, and post-coup civil conflicts. She will also discuss how stakeholders are working together to try to mitigate the crisis, and how a federal health system could be built up to align incentives for effective collaboration among ethnic health organizations. Second, Dr. Tun will provide a grassroots medical humanitarian perspective on what is happening in Myanmar. He will present results of a mixed-methods survey conducted in non-military-controlled areas from October to December 2021, discussing how Myanmar professionals including healthcare workers are spearheading the Civil Disobedience Movement, helping internally displaced people, and trying to address the healthcare needs of populations in conflict areas.

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Myanmar’s junta is more than a year old.  The vast majority of the country’s people oppose the junta and favor democracy.  But the devil is in the details.  Many in the opposition want some form of multi-ethnic federal democracy.  But levels of disagreement and distrust among different communities, including some of the Ethnic Armed Groups, are impeding a unified vision to push the military out of power and establish civilian rule.  This webinar will examine the choices and challenges faced by the opponents of the regime as they try to unite these communities against it on behalf of a better future for Myanmar.

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News on China dominates the headlines. In this panel program, however, panelists dig beneath the headlines to discuss research findings rarely discussed by mainstream media. Organized in collaboration with Michigan State University’s (MSU’s) Office of China Program, speakers highlight China’s monumental conservation efforts, based on their years of collaboration. Faculty from Stanford, MSU, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences will discuss the impact and implications of their own and related research in this field.

OPENING REMARKS

Scott Rozelle, Co-Director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions

Douglas Gage, Vice President, Office of Research and Innovation, Michigan State University

SPEAKERS

Gretchen Daily is Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Stanford Department of Biology and a Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment. She is also Co-founder and Faculty Director of the Stanford Natural Capital Project. Daily’s work is focused on understanding human dependence and impacts on nature and the deep societal transformations needed to secure people and nature. She has published several hundred scientific and popular articles, and a dozen books. She has received numerous international honors. Daily is also a fellow of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Philosophical Society.

Zhiyun Ouyang is a professor of ecology and the Director of the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is the president of the Ecological Society of China and the vice-president of the Ecological Economic Society of China. He has played an active role in conservation policy innovation in China since 2000. His research is notable for its influence on policymaking for ecosystem conservation, restoration, and land management from local to national levels in China. He has published 11 books and hundreds of peer-reviewed papers.

Hua Zheng is a professor at the Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research focuses on the relationships between and policy applications of ecosystem structure-process, ecosystem services, and ecosystem service assessment. His past research has explored how forest ecosystem structures and processes impact ecosystem services through long-term ecological research. He has coauthored numerous peer-reviewed papers in international journals in his field.

Tong Wu is the Co-director of the China & Environment Program at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions. His scientific and policy interests focus on the achievements, challenges, and prospects for sustainable development in China. He has conducted research on the mainstreaming of ecosystem services in management and planning, the role of nature in improving public health outcomes, and strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Wu has coauthored numerous peer-reviewed papers in international journals.

Jiaguo Qi is the Director of the Asia Hub Network which features over 20 partner institutions across Asia, focusing on Water-Energy-Food nexus research. He is also Co-Director of MSU’s Office of China Programs. His research focuses on two main areas: 1) integrating biophysical and social processes and methods in understanding land use and land cover change, and 2) transforming data into information and knowledge. Understanding the coupling of nature and human systems is important in his global change research. Dr. Qi directed the Center for Global Change and Earth Observation for many years.

Peilei Fan is the interim director at Center for Global Change and Earth Observation and professor of Urban and Regional Planning at Michigan State University. Dr. Fan has served as a consultant/economist for the United Nations University –World Institute of Development Economics Research and the Asian Development Bank. She is the Secretary General of International Association of Landscape Ecology (IALE), the Deputy of Landscape Ecology Working Party of International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO), and a Public Intellectuals Program Fellow of the National Committee on US-China Relations. She is passionate about achieving sustainability for cities and regions through efficient, just, and green processes and outcomes. Her work focuses on environment, innovation, and human well-being.

Jianguo "Jack" Liu, a human-environment scientist and sustainability scholar, holds the Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability, is a University Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University, and director of the Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability. Liu takes a holistic approach to addressing complex human-environmental challenges through systems integration, such as the integration of ecology with social sciences, policy and advanced technologies. He is particularly keen to connect seemingly unconnected issues such as telecoupling (human-nature interactions over distances, e.g., among China, US, and Brazil).

Steve Pueppke is a faculty member in the Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, the Center for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, and Professor of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences at MSU. Dr. Pueppke was trained as a plant scientist and spent much of his professional career as a laboratory researcher/research administrator, including several years as Director of MSU AgBioResearch and Associate Vice-President for Research and Graduate Studies at MSU. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of the National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy in Washington and is Section Editor for Water, Agriculture, and Aquaculture for the journal Water.