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Hwy-Chang Moon has joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for the 2015-2016 academic year. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, he will be working on a research project entitled, “The Global Strategy of Korean Firms in Silicon Valley," and will also teach a course on Korean economy and business in the fall quarter.

Moon is a professor of international business strategy at the Graduate School of International Studies (GSIS), Seoul National University, where he also served as the dean of GSIS.

Professor Moon is the editor-in-chief of the Journal of International Business and Economy, and has published numerous articles and books on topics covering international business strategy, cross-cultural management and economic development in East Asia with a focus on South Korea. He frequently provides his perspectives on global economy and business through interviews and televised debates, and his writings appear regularly in South Korean newspapers. The New York Times and NHK World TV have also asked for his perspectives on these topics.

Professor Moon received a PhD from the University of Washington, and has previously taught at the University of Washington, University of the Pacific, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Helsinki School of Economics, Keio University, and Hitotsubashi University. He has also consulted several multinational companies, international organizations, and governments (e.g., Malaysia, Dubai, Azerbaijan, and the Guangdong Province of China).

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center honored Wall Street Journal reporter Jacob Schlesinger with the Shorenstein Journalism Award last Monday. Schlesinger received the award, which includes a $10,000 cash prize, for his work on Japan that spans nearly three decades.

Since 2002, the annual award has sought to recognize journalists who are outstanding in their field of reporting on the Asia-Pacific, and whose work has helped enhance Western understanding of the region. A jury selects the finalist, which alternates each year between an American and Asian journalist.

At an evening ceremony, Stanford professor Gi-Wook Shin presented Schlesinger with the award surrounded by supporters and friends including Michael Armacost and John Roos '77, (J.D. ‘80), two former U.S. ambassadors to Japan, who both came to know Schlesinger personally during their diplomatic posts.

Earlier in the day, Schlesinger delivered a keynote speech on Japan’s economy and the media. Stanford economist Takeo Hoshi and Shorenstein APARC associate director Daniel Sneider joined him on the panel, along with New York Times deputy executive editor Susan Chira.

Schlesinger was a visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Under the advisory of then-Shorenstein APARC director Daniel Okimoto, he worked on a book manuscript at Stanford which became Shadow Shoguns: The Rise and Fall of Japan’s Postwar Political Machine.

“No foreign journalist has covered Japan longer, or understood its political economy more deeply, than Jacob M. Schlesinger…” Okimoto said in the award announcement.

Schlesinger is based at the Journal’s Tokyo bureau as Senior Asia Economics Correspondent and Central Banks Editors, Asia, and tweets with the handle @JMSchles.

He answered a few questions for Shorenstein APARC about Japan’s political and economic climate, as well as the changing face of media there.

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Schlesinger spoke on a panel with Stanford's Daniel Sneider and Takeo Hoshi, and The New York Times's Susan Chira, followed by a private evening reception.

You’ve covered Japan for the Wall Street Journal for nearly a decade on the ground, in the late 1980s and early 90s and again since 2009. What has changed, or remained the same?

When I first covered Japan in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, there was huge interest in -- and also a fair amount of mistrust and hostility toward -- Japan. Americans feared that Japan’s economy was going to somehow “defeat” ours (though I don’t think that notion ever really made sense), and constantly accused Japan of unfairly taking advantage of the global free trade system, exporting heavily to us while keeping its market closed to our goods.

After the bubble burst, and, more recently, Japan’s trade surplus disappeared, the anger toward Japan dissipated. But so, in some ways, did the interest. There are far fewer foreign correspondents today in Japan than there were when I was first there 25 years ago.

I think that the rise of Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, and Abenomics, has revived interest in Japan a bit, but in different ways. People want to know if Japan will rebound, in part as a counterweight to China, which has really surged in economic and political influence in the time since I was last in Japan. That perhaps may be one of the biggest changes -- the fact that so much is now seen through the prism of China. For a time China simply overshadowed Japan but now it has actually, in some ways, revived interest in it. 

What are the greatest challenges you’ve found in explaining the state of the Japanese economy and U.S.-Japan relations?

As I say, one challenge has been in getting people interested, and in explaining to them why it matters. China in particular has become such a big story that Americans sometimes lose sight of Japan's significance as well.

Another challenge is that Japan is a country where change, even big change, often happens in slow, subtle, steady steps. Japanese rhetoric tends to downplay the dramatic and to cast things in indirect terms, which can make it harder to describe statements and developments in ways that are accurate, and will seem interesting to readers.

Can you describe Abenomics and its current status?

Abenomics is Prime Minister Abe's program to try and end Japan's long slump, sometimes branded the “lost decades.” The most concrete and effective action to date has been a much more aggressive policy of monetary stimulus, following Abe's shake-up at the Bank of Japan (the nation’s central bank), where he imposed new leadership. That might be able to lift short-term growth. But Abe’s ambition to raise Japanese growth over the long-run – to a pace near that enjoyed by the United States and other advanced economies – requires extensive structural reforms. Abe has talked a lot about implementing such reforms, but has so far been rather timid in what he has proposed and pursued.

Abenomics also hit a deep pothole in 2014, when Abe decided to proceed with a plan to raise the sales tax, a policy aimed at reducing Japan’s very large outstanding government debt. The depressing impact of the tax basically offset the gains from the Bank of Japan’s stimulus, and Japan last year fell into recession.

It now appears that Japan is slowly pulling out of the recession, and, to ensure that his stimulus polices now work at full force, Abe has delayed plans for a second tax hike that had been scheduled for this year. That may set back long-held goals to reduce government debt, but it should help the chief Abenomics goal of exiting the long deflationary slump.

I'd say overall that Abenomics has a decent chance of lifting Japanese growth a bit higher than it would otherwise have been, but that a dramatic change in Japan’s fortunes would probably require a more dramatic change in policies, something Abe has promised but hasn’t really shown signs of seriously pursuing.

Recently, the United States invited Prime Minister Abe for a state visit (in addition to leaders of other Asian nations). What issues would likely top the agenda?

Both countries are hoping, overall, that the visit will deepen ties between the two governments at a time of great change and challenge in Asia. Whatever one might think of Prime Minister Abe and his agenda, this visit does offer a special opportunity to expand relations, simply because he has now been in office long enough to make multiple trips to Washington as prime minister -- a rare feat over the past quarter century of Japan's notorious carousel politics. The Japanese government is eager for Abe to be able to address a session of the U.S. Congress, which could carry great symbolic significance. He would be the first Japanese leader to do so in more than half a century, since Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda in the early 1960s. That's a pretty long gap, when you consider that Japan has, over that period, long been hailed as one of America's most important allies.

In terms of specific issues, the chief economic agenda item is the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact. It's an ambitious project attempting to set the economic rules for the Pacific economies for the 21st century. And while 12 countries are included, the United States and Japan are by far the biggest, and both sides are hoping that a bilateral agreement by the time Abe meets President Obama could give the broader deal sufficient momentum to be concluded this year.

On the military front, the United States and Japan are updating the terms of their mutual defense pact and hope to do so in ways that will give Japan's military more latitude to participate in joint operations.

While not part of the official agenda, Americans will be eager to hear what Abe has to say about history issues as the world marks the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Abe and his aides have repeatedly challenged some of the established views of Japan and its behavior during the war, including recently directly asking the American publisher McGraw-Hill to change its account of so-called “comfort women,” women forced into prostitution under Japan's war-time military. Such statements and actions have irritated many Americans and stoked anger in China and South Korea. American officials in particular are concerned about deteriorating relations between Japan and South Korea -- the two principle U.S. military allies in Asia -- and are eager for Abe to try and do more to bridge the gap, particularly on history issues. 

Newspapers have played a large role in Japanese society; the nation boasts one of the highest readerships in the world. Where do you see the future of news media in Japan?

Japan, as you say, has one of the most -- perhaps the most -- literate and well-informed populations in the world. News readership and news viewership is extremely high. People are extremely knowledgeable about current events.

Oddly, for a country that is also very tech literate, digital media has been relatively slow to catch on in Japan. Most people still get their main news from print papers, or magazines, and there has not been -- at least not yet -- a real surge in new, credible online-only, or online-originated media sources to challenge the mainstream media, the way platforms like Politico, the Huffington Post, or BuzzFeed have popped up in the United States.

The Japanese media has also suffered from some serious setbacks to its credibility in recent years. There was tremendous soul-searching after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster about whether the Japanese press had done enough, either before the accident, or in the immediate aftermath, to cover aggressively the flaws and mistakes in the country's nuclear energy policies.

More recently, over the past year there have been damaging battles, in varying degrees, over the accuracy, and independence, of three of the country's largest, and most-respected news organizations, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, and the NHK national broadcaster. I worry that the result, fair or not, could prompt further erosion in the credibility of the Japanese media. That's potentially a big problem at a time of great change, great political and policy debate -- and when the political opposition is so weak that the media arguably has a heightened role at this moment as a check on power.

You were a visiting scholar at Shorenstein APARC. How did your time at the Center impact your work?

The Center was a tremendous opportunity for me in so many ways. It is rare for a journalist to be able to break out of the steady deadline pressures of a newsroom, and soak up an academic atmosphere. Being at Shorenstein APARC was a fantastic way to do that. It offered the best elements of an ivory tower, without feeling isolated. It gave me chances to interact with policymakers there as visiting fellows, as well as some of the top experts in the field who were based there.

I have to give particular thanks to Dan Okimoto, who ran Shorenstein APARC at the time and Jim Raphael, who was director of research. When I was at Shorenstein APARC, I was researching and writing a book on Japanese politics. The feedback from Dan, Jim and others made it a much better work. But beyond the book, the depth and perspective that I gained from my immersion at Shorenstein APARC has helped shape my writing since then.

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Global Talent seeks to examine the utility of skilled foreigners beyond their human capital value by focusing on their social capital potential, especially their role as transnational bridges between host and home countries. Gi-Wook Shin (Stanford University) and Joon Nak Choi (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) build on an emerging stream of research that conceptualizes global labor mobility as a positive-sum game in which countries and businesses benefit from building ties across geographic space, rather than the zero-sum game implied by the "global war for talent" and "brain drain" metaphors.

"Advanced economies like Korea face a growing mismatch between low birth rates and increasing demand for skilled labor. Shin and Choi use original, comprehensive data and a global outlook to provide careful, accessible and persuasive analysis. Their prescriptions for Korea and other economies challenged by high-level labor shortages will amply reward readers of this landmark study."  —Mark Granovetter, Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

The book empirically demonstrates its thesis by examination of the case of Korea: a state archetypical of those that have been embracing economic globalization while facing a demographic crisis—and one where the dominant narrative on the recruitment of skilled foreigners is largely negative. It reveals the unique benefits that foreign students and professionals can provide to Korea, by enhancing Korean firms' competitiveness in the global marketplace and by generating new jobs for Korean citizens rather than taking them away. As this research and its key findings are relevant to other advanced societies that seek to utilize skilled foreigners for economic development, the arguments made in this book offer insights that extend well beyond the Korean experience.

Media coverage related to the research project:  

Dong-A Ilbo, January 27, 2016

Interiew with Arirang TV, March 10, 2016 (Upfront Ep101 - "Significance of attacting global talent," interview with Arirang)

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The Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project
Public Forum Series with Networking

 

Abstract:

As Silicon Valley continues to be a global center of innovation, companies from all over the world expanding into Silicon Valley face a variety of opportunities and challenges, with a wide range of lessons learned for Japanese firms as they make use of the Silicon Valley ecosystem. DeNA provides an interesting case. Founded in 1999, achieved explosive growth through a series of different business models, with particular success in mobile games and especially with the “mobage” mobile social gaming platform. DeNA entered Silicon Valley in 2008 and expanded its operation through the acquisition of San Francisco-based  smartphone gaming company, ngmoco, for $300M in 2010. Mr. Dai Watanabe has been navigating DeNA's period of transition to build a strong business base in the West. Dai will talk about DeNA's effort in Silicon Valley and his experience.

 

Speaker:

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Mr. Dai Watanabe is VP of Strategy and Corporate Development since the acquisition of ngmoco. He has also served as President of DeNA Global, Inc. since its establishment in 2008 as the U.S. subsidiary of DeNA Co., Ltd.. Dai has been in charge of DeNA’s global expansion strategy and execution since 2005. Prior to his US assignment, he served as President of DeNA Beijing. Dai began his career in Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation right after graduation from Kyoto University with a bachelor degree in Archaeology.

 

 

 

Tuesday, February 17, 2015
5:00 – 5:30 pm Networking
5:30pm - 7:00pm Lecture
Cypress Semiconductor Auditorium (CISX Auditorium)

Public Welcome • Light Refreshments

The Silicon Valley - New Japan Project

Cypress Semiconductor Auditorium (CISX Auditorium)
Paul G. Allen Building, Stanford University
330 Serra Mall, Stanford CA 94305
**Entrance is the Serra Mall side of the building**
https://www.google.com/maps?q=CISX+Cypress+Semiconductor+Auditorium@37.4295793,-122.1748332

Dai Watanabe Vice President of Strategy and Corporate Development, DeNA
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Innovation is a vital component of economic development, and the United States and Japan provide clear examples of how a knowledge-based economy can lead to sustainable growth. But Japan has sometimes encountered obstacles in bringing its wealth of ideas into the global market. A conference at Stanford seeks to help shift that reality.

“Japan is changing,” said panelist Gen Isayama, founder of the World Innovation Lab. “We’re seeing entrepreneurs…but we need a new role model – new stars emerging in Japan to excite younger people.”

For two days, 21 experts from Japan and the United States gathered at the Stanford-Sasakawa Peace Foundation New Channels Dialogue to discuss innovation, promote exchange of best practices, and enhance connections between the two countries.

The conference was sponsored by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) and organized by the Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), in association with the U.S.-Japan Council.

“The New Channels project is intended to open a new arena of dialogue between new voices, and a new generation of experts and policymakers on both sides of the Pacific. And to tie them back into the existing structure of alliance governance,” said SPF President Yuji Takagi, in his opening remarks.

“The complex challenges of today’s world provide even greater momentum to work together across sectors,” Shorenstein APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin added.

In its second year, the conference hosted more than 100 attendees from the San Francisco Bay Area, drawing students, scholars and industry and government people to Encina Hall for the daylong public forum on Jan. 22. The first and second panels focused on the state of innovations in Silicon Valley and Japan, the third and fourth panels examined how the two countries could better work together toward innovation-driven growth.

The first set of panelists started by discussing characteristics of Silicon Valley, and how it defined itself during the tech boom of the 1980s/90s, and led to the rise of the Internet and telecomm industries that rapidly spread around the world.

Silicon Valley is often identified for its innovative ideas, and its ability to convert those ideas into market-ready goods and services. Panelists said that networks and open access to venture capital drive that ability to push ideas through quickly, an essential characteristic in today’s real-time world.

“It’s never been easier to start a company,” said Patrick Scaglia, a consultant at Startup Ventures and former senior executive at Hewlett Packard.

Silicon Valley continues to attract entrepreneurs and potential investors, and is positioned to continue to do so. Scaglia noted that 47.3 million dollars was invested in startups last year alone, the highest seen since 2009.

Areas currently being pioneered by Silicon Valley entrepreneurs include medical and mobile technologies. Norman Winarsky, president of SRI Ventures, pointed to breakthroughs in robotics and wearable devices, showing a clip from a TED talk on bionic prosthetics. Additional predicted trends include a return to hardware and possibly greater entrepreneurism coming directly out of universities, particularly from students.

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(Left photo) Tak Miyata (left), a general partner at Scrum Ventures, talks with Ryuichiro Takeshita (right), a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC. (Right photo) Japan Program Research Associate Kenji Kushida leads a discussion on Japan's innovation ecosystem. A gallery of photos from the public forums can be viewed here.

Japan has historically produced successful entrepreneurs such as Konosuke Matsushita (founder of Panasonic Corporation), Akio Morita (founder of Sony Corporation), and Soichiro Honda (founder of Honda Motor Company), but large firms have come to dominate the economy. Recently, however, the country has been producing a cadre of successful startups, some of which have already grown to become quite large. For example, Japanese companies Rakuten and DeNA have commanded the e-commerce space, and similarly, Mixi in the social media space.

Panelists noted that more Japanese startups are going global compared to a decade ago. Yusuke Asakura, a visiting scholar at Stanford’s U.S.-Asia Tech Management Center, pointed to companies that produced applications like Metaps, an Android monetization app, and Gumi, a social networking gaming app.

But Japan hasn’t reached its greatest potential due to various barriers – market, institutional, and cultural. Mr. Isayama said, at the moment, there aren’t enough ventures and risk capital in Japan. Greater accessibility to both could propel startups more fully into the global market.

C. Jeffrey Char, president of J-Seed Ventures, said another obstacle was the quantity of mergers & acquisitions (M&A).

“If there was more M&A, it would actually improve the ecosystem a lot more – it would turbocharge it,” he said. “Because when investors get their money back quicker and when entrepreneurs get paid off quicker, a lot of times they will go and start another company.”

If greater M&A existed in Japan it would create a “benevolent cycle” of funding and inject the momentum necessary to support an environment for entrepreneurial success.

Networking, labor mobility, and a highly skilled workforce are additional components that aided in Silicon Valley’s success, and areas that Japan could learn from. Government support for entrepreneurs is rising; the third arrow of ‘Abenomics’ policy aims to jumpstart growth based on a number of measures, including diversification of its workforce through increased immigration and female participation.

Offering an additional point, Professor Kazuyuki Motohashi, the Sasakawa Peace Fellow at Shorenstein APARC, suggested that cultural differences might pose one of the biggest challenges to U.S.-Japan collaboration.

Americans are more likely to embrace failure as an essential part of the creative process; Japanese typically don’t celebrate failure as much nor valorize the entrepreneur to the same degree.

“We don’t have to change the culture,” Motohashi said. “The important [thing] is to overcome these differences and develop a mutual understanding.”

Teaching younger generations about the entrepreneurial mindset could also improve societal attitudes toward risk-taking. Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos said celebrating the entrepreneur was the most important factor in creating a vibrant innovation ecosystem in Japan. “In the end, if you have the proper mindset, you can overcome everything else."

A detailed summary report of the New Channels Dialogue will be released in the coming months on the Shorenstein APARC website.

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Panelists pose for a group shot outside Encina Hall. A conference agenda, final report and listing of the panelists can be viewed here.

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Tokyo-based reporter Jacob Schlesinger will receive award for his journalistic work and achievements spanning three decades

Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to announce Wall Street Journal reporter Jacob Schlesinger as the 2014 recipient of the Shorenstein Journalism Award.

Schlesinger has been selected for his excellence in reporting on Japan’s economy, trade and politics, over a more than three-decade career in journalism. A Japan watcher since the late 1980s, Schlesinger incisively covered the nation at its economic height, the ‘boom’ period, through its ‘bust,’ as the financial system collapsed in the 1990s, and now, into an era that has seen signs of economic revival.

Commenting on the selection of Schlesinger for the award, Professor Daniel Okimoto, one of the leading American experts on Japanese political economy and a former director of Shorenstein APARC, said:

 “Through the years, followers of Japan have had the benefit of being kept informed by a succession of first-rate journalists based in Tokyo, such as Bill Emmott (The Economist), author of “The Sun Also Sets,” and Gillian Tett (Financial Times), author of “Saving the Sun.” No foreign journalist has covered Japan longer, or understood its political economy more deeply, than Jacob M. Schlesinger (Wall Street Journal), author of “Shadow Shoguns.”

The Shorenstein Journalism Award, launched in 2002, is given to journalists who are outstanding in their reporting on Asia, and who have contributed significantly to Western understanding of the region. The award was originally designed to honor distinguished American journalists for their work on Asia, but since 2011, Shorenstein APARC re-envisioned the award to encompass Asian journalists who pave the way for press freedom, and have aided in the growth of mutual understanding between Asia and the United States. The award alternates between Western and Asian journalists.

The most recent award recipients were Aung Zaw, the founder of Burmese publication the Irrawaddy, and a pioneer of press freedom in that country, and Barbara Demick, the Los Angeles Times correspondent in Beijing and the author of ground-breaking studies of life in North Korea.

Schlesinger has covered Japan for the Wall Street Journal for nearly a decade. He is currently the Senior Asia Economics Correspondent and Central Banks Editor – Asia for the Journal, based in Tokyo. He came first to Japan as a reporter in the late 1980s, covering tech, trade and politics, and then reporting on Japan’s stock market crash and financial crisis, and the fallout that carried on through the mid-1990s, a period known as “the lost decade.”

Schlesinger then worked for 13 years in the Journal’s bureau in Washington DC, covering politics and the U.S. economy. He was part of the Journal’s team that was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 2003 for the “What’s Wrong” series about the causes and consequences of the late-1990s financial bubble.

Schlesinger returned to Japan as the Japan editor/Tokyo bureau chief in 2009, overseeing the coverage of the historic transfer of power to the Democratic Party of Japan, and the triple disaster of the massive earthquake of March 2011 and the tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster that resulted. He has since closely followed the return to power of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, and its leader Shinzo Abe, and his administration’s economic stimulus policy, known as ‘Abenomics,’ as well as growing tensions within the region.

Schlesinger is the author of the book, “Shadow Shoguns: The Rise and Fall of Japan’s Postwar Political Machine,” widely recognized as one of the most important works on Japan’s politicians, parties and the dramatic changes in its political order. Published in 1997, the book was hailed by Foreign Affairs as “a fascinating and penetrating tale.” He wrote the book while a visiting fellow at Shorenstein APARC.

Schlesinger will receive the award at a special ceremony at Stanford’s Bechtel Conference Center on March 9. He will also lead a panel discussion earlier that day examining the coverage of Japan’s economy, from boom to bust and back again, with Susan Chira, a former Tokyo correspondent and now deputy executive editor of The New York Times and Professor Takeo Hoshi, a prominent economist and director of Stanford’s Japan Program.

Please click here for the full press release.

Contact: Lisa Griswold, communications coordinator at Shorenstein APARC, with any questions about the award or the March 9 events.

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The Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project
Public Forum Series with Networking
 

Speaker: Robert Cole (Bio)

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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
5:00 – 5:30 pm Networking
5:30pm - 7:00pm Lecture
Cypress Semiconductor Auditorium (CISX Auditorium)

Public Welcome • Light Refreshments

The Silicon Valley - New Japan Project

 


 

Cypress Semiconductor Auditorium (CISX Auditorium)
Paul G. Allen Building, Stanford University
330 Serra Mall, Stanford CA 94305
https://www.google.com/maps?q=CISX+Cypress+Semiconductor+Auditorium@37.4295793,-122.1748332

Robert Cole Professor Emeritus, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley
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Stanford-Sasakawa Peace Foundation New Channels Dialogue 2015

"Innovation: Silicon Valley and Japan"

January 22, 2015

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) in Association with U.S.-Japan Council 
 

The Japan Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University is continuing the "New Channels" dialogue which started in 2013 with support from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. The project was launched to create new channels of dialogue between experts and leaders of younger generations from the United States, mostly from the West Coast, and Japan under name of "New Channels: Reinvigorating U.S.-Japan Relations," with the goal of reinvigorating the bilateral relationship through dialogue on 21st century challenges faced by both nations. 

Last year, in its inaugural year, the Stanford-SPF New Channels Dialogue 2014 focused on energy issues. This year's theme is innovation and entrepreneurship, which will take place on January 22 at Stanford University with participants that include business leaders, academia and experts from both the United States and Japan. On January 23, a closed dialogue among participants will be held at Stanford.

Shorenstein APARC will be tweeting about the conference at hashtag, #StanfordSPF. Join the conversation with the handle, @StanfordSAPARC.

 

Brief Agenda

9:15-9:30 
Welcome: 
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University 
Yuji Takagi, President, Sasakawa Peace Foundation 
 

9:30-10:50 
Panel Discussion I: Current State of Silicon Valley Innovations

Chair: Kazuyuki Motohashi, Sasakawa Peace Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center, Stanford University 
Tak Miyata, General Partner, Scrum Ventures 
Patrick Scaglia, Consultant and Technology Advisor, Startup Ventures and former senior executive, Hewlette Packard 
Norman Winarsky, Vice President, SRI Ventures, SRI International 


11:10-12:30 
Panel Discussion II: Current State of Innovations in Japan

Chair: Kenji Kushida, Research Associate, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Yusuke Asakura, Former CEO, mixi 
Takuma Iwasa, CEO, Cerevo 
Yasuo Tanabe, Vice President and Executive Officer, Hitachi Ltd. 
Hiroaki Yasutake, Managing Executive Office and Director, Rakuten

 

12:30-13:30 
Lunch

 

13:30-14:50 
Panel Discussion III: Taking Silicon Valley Innovations to Japan

Chair: Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Jeff Char, President, J-Seed Ventures, Inc. and Chief Mentor, Venture Generation 
Akiko Futamura, President and CEO, InfiniteBio 
Allen Miner, Founder, Chairman & CEO, SunBridge Corporation 
John Roos, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan 
 

15:10-16:30 
Panel Discussion IV: The Japanese Innovation Ecosystem and Silicon Valley: Bringing them Together (How Japanese firms can make use of SV?)

Chair: Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Robert Eberhart, Assistant Professor, Santa Clara University and STVP Fellow, Stanford University 
Gen Isayama, CEO and Co-Founder, WiL (World Innovation Lab) 
Naoyuki Miyabe, Principal, Miyabe & Associates, LLC 
Hideichi Okada, Senior Executive Vice President, NEC Corporation 
 

Innovation: Silicon Valley and Japan
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Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Serra St., 1st floor
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

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Though some signs point to Japan falling into recession, Stanford economist Takeo Hoshi disagrees and says it is premature to judge the effectiveness of Japan's new approach to its economy. Not enough time has passed for the reforms to produce results.

Despite a recent slowdown, time will tell if Japan has charted the right economic course after more than 15 years of deflation, says a Stanford economist.

The Stanford News Service recently interviewed economics professor Takeo Hoshi of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center about Japan's economy – the third largest in the world.

In the last two years, Japan undertook a new economic direction in adopting fiscal reforms known as "Abenomics," which refers to its principal advocate, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe. Abenomics consists of monetary policy, fiscal policy and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment. But new data suggest that Japan may have fallen into a recession, which adds to worries about the slowing global economy.

Is Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s "Abenomics" working?

It is too early to tell. Abenomics is not failing – yet. It has three pillars or "arrows," as they are often called. The first arrow – monetary expansion – has succeeded. Japan is out of deflation, which had lasted more than 15 years. The inflation rate has not reached the target rate of 2 percent and is recently falling a little bit, but it is away from zero. The postponement of the consumption tax increase that was announced last week was a step back on the efforts to reduce the budget deficits, which is considered to be a part of the second arrow (flexible fiscal policy). However, some people in the government have started to argue that fiscal consolidation has never been a part of the second arrow. 

According to Abe, the government will implement a consumption tax rate hike in April 2017 – it will rise from 8 percent to 10 percent. This time, the law will not include an escape clause, which made the earlier one contingent on economic conditions. It was also announced that the government will develop a real plan to achieve a fiscal surplus by a certain date. These efforts may lead to a credible plan to reach fiscal sustainability. So, it is too early to say if this second arrow of Abenomics has failed.

The third arrow is the growth strategy. The original strategy announced in June 2013 lacked focus, but the revised version enacted in June 2014 offers 10 focus areas, some of which are quite sensible. The government has just begun on some of these economic reforms. It is way too early to tell if these efforts to restore growth in Japan will prove fruitful.

Will the Japanese recession have painful implications for the United States?

I would not say Japan is in recession now. Many people say that Japan is in recession because the first preliminary estimate of the third quarter real GDP growth came out negative. With the negative growth in the second quarter, Japan's economic condition satisfies a standard definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). But the negative growth in the second quarter was inevitable because the demand was shifted from the second quarter to the first quarter in anticipation of the consumption tax hike on April 1. People shifted the timing of durable consumption goods purchase from the second quarter to the first quarter. So, the "true" negative growth has been observed only for a quarter. 

Even the negative growth in the third quarter may not really signal a serious trouble. First, the negative growth disappears if we exclude the change in inventory. In other words, the production was down from the second quarter but the demand – or sales – did not fall. Also, many people expect the second preliminary estimate for third quarter growth that will be published on Dec. 8 will be revised higher. 

Will this hurt the global economy?

If Japan was in recession, that would hurt the rest of the world, especially when the economies in Europe are weak and China is slowing down. But I don't think Japan is in recession – yet.

What would have been a better strategy than "Abenomics?"

Abenomics has been better than any other alternatives that have been tried in Japan. The Bank of Japan finally stopped its deflationary policy. Abenomics also showed some early promise in economic reforms, which were tried before only in piecemeal ways.

Assuming the Liberal Democratic Party retains power and Prime Minister Abe returns as the prime minister after the next election – which seems to be a safe assumption – the government will continue Abenomics with a renewed commitment to fiscal reform and growth, I hope.

What is the lesson for countries around the world?

Many people have prematurely declared the "failure" of Abenomics. I don't think their assessment is correct, but the government could have done better by implementing some easier economic reforms in the beginning – and calling attention to its early successes. This could have included, for example, reducing the barriers to start new businesses.

Clifton Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

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