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AI and elections

THIS EVENT IS NOW SOLD OUT. Join us for our final seminar on December 3rd with Jeff Jarvis.

Join the Cyber Policy Center November 19th, from 1 PM-2 PM, for AI and Elections, a discussion with panelists from Google, Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic. The discussion will be moderated by Nate Persily. Stanford affiliates are invited to join us at 12:40 PM for lunch, prior to the seminar. This session is in-person only and will not be recorded or live streamed.

About the Seminar

Many had predicted that the 2024 election would be the "AI Election."  Those predictions, both for the United States and for elections around the world, did not prove to be true.  In this seminar, Nate Persily will lead a discussion among representatives from the major AI companies regarding AI and elections.  Should we expect AI to play a greater role in elections going forward? How are companies thinking about the appropriate policies regarding the use of their tools in the context of elections?

Nathaniel Persily

Stanford Law School Building, Manning Faculty Lounge (Room 270)
559 Nathan Abbott Way Stanford, CA 94305

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Limited number of lunches available for registered guests until 12:30pm on day of event.

About the Event: When and how do nationalist protests at home affect crisis bargaining at the international level? Though plausible, the overall effect and the scope conditions for nationalist protests to influence international crisis bargaining remain unspecified, particularly due to two uncertainties: the host government, which is uncertain whether a protest will escalate into an anti-government mobilization, and the foreign government, which is uncertain whether the observed protest constitutes a genuinely credible constraint or just a strategic misrepresentation of the host government’s preference over the disputed issue. The lack of ex-ante theoretical expectations has led to the proliferation of ad hoc ex-post justifications for nationalist protests’ determinant or indeterminate roles during international crises. Using a two-step modeling approach, this paper shows that the threat to the host government posed by the nationalist protests is a prerequisite for them to exert influence on international crisis bargaining. Moreover, the relationship between the threats to the host government from nationalist protests and the likelihood of bargaining failure is non-monotonic - that is, first decreasing and then increasing in the magnitude of the threat. This result is tested with an in-depth case study of the (in)effective signaling with the 2014 anti-China protest in Vietnam.

About the Speaker: Xinru Ma is an inaugural research scholar at the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab within the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where she leads the research track on U.S.-Asia relations. Her work primarily examines nationalism, great power politics, and East Asian security, with a methodological focus on formal and computational methods.

More broadly, Xinru’s research encompasses three main objectives: Substantively, she aims to better theorize and enhance cross-country perspectives on critical phenomena such as nationalism and its impact on international security; Methodologically, she strives to improve measurement and causal inference based on careful methodologies, including formal modeling and computational methods; Empirically, she challenges prevailing assumptions that inflate the perceived risk of militarized conflicts in East Asia, by providing original data and analysis rooted in local knowledge and regional perceptions.

Her work is published in the Journal of East Asian Studies, The Washington Quarterly, Journal of Global Security Studies, Journal of European Public Policy, and edited volumes by Palgrave. Her co-authored book, Beyond Power Transition, is published by Columbia University Press.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Xinru Ma
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Limited number of lunches available for registered guests until 12:30pm on day of event.

About the Event: In response to Hamas’s deadly attack against Israel and its citizens on October 7, 2023, Israel launched a significant ground invasion into Gaza in self-defense, aimed at eliminating Hamas’s military capabilities and removing it from political power. Israel’s military operations have generated extensive commentary about its compliance with international humanitarian law, particularly concerning the jus in bello principles of distinction and proportionality. However, there has been much less scrutiny of Israel’s compliance with jus ad bellum proportionality, a well-established principle under international law that considers the overall scope of a state’s use of force and dictates that a war’s means must not be excessive in relation to its aims. Our paper assesses Israel’s compliance with jus ad bellum proportionality. After providing an overview of the jus ad bellum proportionality principle, we rely on novel radar satellite imagery analysis to document the widespread destruction that has resulted from Israel’s military operations in Gaza. Based on these data, we argue that Israel’s use of force is excessive, and that the war Israel is currently waging in Gaza is not in compliance with the principle of jus ad bellum proportionality.

About the Speakers:

Bailey Ulbricht is the founding Executive Director at the Stanford Humanitarian Program, where she works on legal research projects aimed at reducing harm in conflict settings and other insecure environments. She has a particular interest in how technology exacerbates harms, or conversely, how it can be used to document or reduce harms. Before coming to Stanford, she founded the humanitarian ed-tech nonprofit Paper-Airplanes, was a Fulbright English Teaching Assistant in Turkey, and was a humanitarian worker with refugee communities on the Turkish-Syrian border. Bailey has two masters' degrees in Islamic Law and Islamic Studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London, where she was a Marshall Scholar. She received her B.A. in International Relations magna cum laude from Carleton College and her J.D. from Stanford Law School.

Allen S. Weiner, Senior Lecturer in Law at Stanford Law School, is an international legal scholar who focuses primarily on international security and international conflict resolution. He also studies the challenges of online misinformation and disinformation. Weiner is director of the Stanford Program in International and Comparative Law, the Stanford Humanitarian Program, and the Stanford Center on International Conflict and Negotiation.  His scholarship is deeply informed by practice; he served as an international lawyer in the U.S. State Department for more than a decade before joining the Stanford faculty.  He earned his A.B. at Harvard and his J.D. at Stanford.

Jamon Van Den Hoek is an Associate Professor of Geography at Oregon State University where he directs the Conflict Ecology lab. Jamon's research focuses on using satellite and geospatial data to gauge the direct and indirect consequences of armed conflict on vulnerable people and landscapes. Before coming to Oregon State, Jamon was a NASA Postdoctoral Fellow at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and completed his PhD in Geography at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Corey Scher is a doctoral candidate at the City University of New York Graduate Center in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. Corey studies physical impacts of war and conflict using Earth observation data, geostatistics, and theory from the geosciences. His mapping of damage to urban areas in geographies including Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, and Lebanon has been featured in journalistic and humanitarian publications worldwide. He holds a master's degree in geology from the City College of New York and a bachelor's degree in geology from the University of California, Berkeley.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Bailey Ulbricht
Allen Weiner
Jamon Van Den Hoek
Corey Scher
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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2024)


Friday, November 22, 2024 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way



Response to Competition: Gender, Domains, and STEM Choice
 

Women’s lower performance in competitive environments has been advanced as an explanation for gender inequalities in the labor market. Using broadly representative Chinese administrative data, and measuring response to competition (RC) by performance changes from a mock exam to the competitive High School Entrance Exam, we document higher RC for boys in STEM and for girls in non-STEM subjects, with the male STEM RC advantage weakened by random exposure to high-performing female classmates in STEM. Both domain-specific RC measures significantly predict subsequent STEM track choice, accounting for 26% of the adjusted gender gap in STEM specialization, a known precursor to the gender pay gap.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.



About the Speaker 
 

Jane Zhang headshot.

Jane Zhang is an Associate Professor at the University of New South Wales and a Visiting Scholar (2024-25) at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. Her research examines how preferences and beliefs are shaped by policy, how they interact with incentives, and the role that they play in determining a wide-range of social outcomes. Her approach combines the use of tools from the experimental economics field, with the exploitation of natural experiments, field experiments, and controlled lab manipulations to make causal inferences about the determinants of preferences and beliefs. Her work has been published in outlets such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Journal of Political Economy, the American Economic Review: Insights, the Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. She received her PhD in Economics from U.C. Berkeley and BA in Economics from Stanford University.


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.



Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 


Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Jane Zhang, Associate Professor of Economics, University of New South Wales
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Yoav Heller webinar

In recent years, creeping demographic changes and deep political divisions have made many Israelis worry about the fragmentation of their society into several contending “tribes.” In a 2015 talk that became known as “The Four Tribes Speech,” Israel’s President, Reuven Rivlin, observed that Israel was rapidly transforming from a country defined by a unified national ethos into one where secular, nationalist-religious, ultraorthodox Jews, and Israeli Arabs increasingly possess separate identities. But some are fighting back, seeking to renegotiate the Israeli social contract and rejuvenate a cohesive center.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Dr. Yoav Heller is co-founder and chairman of “The Fourth Quarter”, an Israeli NGO and mass movement dedicated to rebuilding Israeli modern democratic centrism. A historian by training, Yoav has had a rich career in media – including Ynet, Israel's largest online media site, which he helped establish and in which he served as senior editor – education and community leadership. Yoav Heller holds a BA in Political Science and Middle Eastern Studies and an MA in Management and Education from Tel Aviv University. He completed his Ph.D. in History at the University of London, Royal Holloway College Holocaust Research Institute.

Virtual Event Only.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen

Virtual Event Only.

Yoav Heller
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Yuli Tamir webinar

Since its modern rebirth in the aftermath of the Second World War and the Holocaust, Israel has always sought to balance nationalism with liberalism, and to reconcile Jewish particularism and the need for a strong national military with an great societal diversity and a desire to be part of the free world. What is the relationship between nationalism and liberalism? Can the two coexist over time? Did Israel ever get the balance right? Is 2024 Israel too nationalistic and not liberal enough? And can it rediscover a formula that to successfully reconcile its simultaneous need for particularism and openness?

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Professor Yuli Tamir is President of Beit Berl College. She served as Member of Knesset for the Labor Party between 2003 and 2010, and as Minister of Immigrant Absorption and Minister of Education. She received a Ph.D. in Political Philosophy from Oxford University, a BA in Biology and an MA in Political Science from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. A leading scholar of liberalism, education, nationality, feminism, and human rights, Tamir is the author of Liberal Nationalism (1993) and editor of Democratic Education in a Multicultural State (1995) and Moral and Political Education (2001).

Virtual Event Only.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen

Virtual Event Only.

Yuli Tamir
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Ari Shavit webinar

Ari Shavit – one of Israel’s most experienced, critical, and erudite political analysts – was one of the first people in the world to put pen to paper in the aftermath of the October 7th, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack. In his latest book (published in Hebrew, with an English edition forthcoming), Shavit argues that Israel now finds itself in an existential war with Iran. It is a crisis from which, Ari Shavit argues, Israel will either emerge victorious and transformed or cease to exist.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Ari Shavit is a leading Israeli columnist, author, and political analyst. Born in Rehovot, Israel, Shavit studied philosophy at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, before embarking on a distinguished career in journalism. In the early 1990s he was chairman of the Association for Civil Rights in Israel, and in 1995 he joined Haaretz, where he served on the editorial board until 2016. His recent books include the New York Time bestseller My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel (2013) and Existential War: From Catastrophe, to Victory, to Revival (2024) [Hebrew].

Virtual Event Only.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen

Virtual Event Only.

Ari Shavit
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Einat Wilf webinar

“Zionism” – once an innocuous term favored by socialists and liberals alike to denote support for the right of the Jewish People to equal national self-determination in the Land of Zion – has become a deeply contested word. Postcolonial and critical theories, in particular, have radically reinterpreted the term, with some weaponizing Zionism to accuse Israel and its allies of everything from racism and genocide to police brutality in Portland, Oregon, and even climate change. So, what is “Zionism”? Where did the word and concept come from? And why has it become so heatedly contested?

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Dr. Einat Wilf is a leading thinker on Israel, Zionism, foreign policy, and education. She was a Member of Knesset from 2010 to 2013, where she served as Chair of the Education Committee and Member of the influential Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Born and raised in Israel, Einat served as Foreign Policy Advisor to then Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres and as a strategic consultant with McKinsey & Company. Her recent books include The War of Return: How Western Indulgence of the Palestinian Dream Has Obstructed the Path to Peace (2020, co-authored with Adi Schwartz) and We Should All Be Zionists (2022) – a collection of her essays on Israel, Zionism and the path to peace.

Virtual Event Only.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen

Virtual Event Only.

Dr. Einat Wilf
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Eugene Kandel webinar

As Head of Israel’s National Economic Council between 2009 and 2015 Professor Eugene Kandel possessed a unique insider’s view into the fundamental structure of the Israeli economy and the most powerful trends shaping its society and politics. By 2023 Kandel was so alarmed by what he observed happening to those fundamentals that he warned of the collapse of the Israeli economy (and with it the state) if Israel did not fundamentally rethink its social contract and governance structure.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Professor Eugene Kandel is the founder and chairman of RISE Israel Institute, the Emil Spyer Professor of Economics and Finance at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and the chairman of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. From 2009 to 2015 he served as Head of the National Economic Council and Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of Israel, advancing significant economic policies and reforms.

Virtual Event Only.

Amichai Magen
Amichai Magen

Virtual Only Event.

Eugene Kandel
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Flyer for the talk "Is South Korea Trapped or Transitioning?" with portrait of speaker Kim Boo-kyum

Once the term "Japanification" was widely used in the Western media, cautioning that prolonged economic stagnation could spread to other countries like in Japan. But recently, "South Koreanification" has emerged, meaning that Korea's demographic crisis marked by low birth rates and rapid aging can become a reality elsewhere, too.

In this talk, Mr. Boo Kyum Kim, former Prime Minister of Republic of Korea, will examine the dual challenges of declining birth rate and accelerating aging population facing Korea, and discuss policy directions and strategies South Korea should take for its sustainable national growth. 

Portrait of Boo Kyum Kim

Mr. Boo Kyum Kim was the 47th Prime Minister of Republic of Korea (2021-22), and prior to that,  he was the First Minister of the Interior and Safety (2017-19). Since his college years in 1980s, Mr. Kim had been a leader of democratization movements, and he  served four terms as a National Assembly Member between 2000 and 2017. He received a BA in Political science from Seoul National University and an MA in public administration from Yonsei University in Korea.

Directions and Parking > 

Gi-Wook Shin
Boo Kyum Kim, former Prime Minister, Republic of Korea
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Flyer for the talk "Is South Korea Trapped or Transitioning?" with portrait of speaker Kim Boo-kyum
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