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Lisa Griswold
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The Obama administration’s policy of “re-balance” toward Asia, that began as early as 2009, is now increasingly under stress, as those in the region question American staying power and China emerges as a challenger to U.S. dominance. As the territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas in recent months have demonstrated, China’s relations with the region and the United States have become visibly strained, bringing the U.S. re-balance policy into question and raising concerns about security tensions and the danger of conflict. 

U.S.-China relations are heading, for the foreseeable future, into “a very scratchy time,” predicted Kenneth Lieberthal, a respected senior China scholar at The Brookings Institution, in his keynote speech delivered at the annual Oksenberg Lecture on June 3 at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center.

Lieberthal told a standing room audience in Encina Hall that while the U.S. attempt to temper its relations with China and others has “worked quite well over time,” now, “at a geostrategic level, we seem to be sliding with increasing speed toward an inflection point in U.S.-China relations.”

Lieberthal was joined by a panel of China experts, including Cui Liru of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), and Stanford’s Karl Eikenberry and Thomas Fingar, distinguished fellows at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Jean C. Oi, director of the Stanford China Program.

The discussion was part of the Oksenberg Lecture, an annual dialogue that functions as a policy workshop on U.S.-Asia relations, named in honor of late professor and senior fellow Michel Oksenberg (1938–2001). Oksenberg was a noted China specialist, who served as a senior member of the National Security Council and is credited as the architect of the normalization of relations with China under the Carter administration in the late 1970s.

Points of tension in the U.S.-China relationship have been increasingly visible. Senior American officials have assailed China for its aggressive actions toward its neighbors over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and in South China Sea, including its latest altercations with Vietnam and the Philippines. The United States recently indicted five members of China’s People’s Liberation Army for carrying out cyber espionage against U.S. technology companies.

Incidents like these have prompted both countries to throw harsh words at each other, leading to a situation of brinkmanship. However, Lieberthal pointed out that tense relations between the United States and China are certainly not new. Most notably, relations took a nosedive in 1989 when China cracked down on democratization protests at Tiananmen Square, in 1999 after the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Serbia, and in 2008, in response to the global financial crisis.

The U.S.-China relationship has been riddled with periods of distrust in the past. But now, “the speed and scale of China’s economic growth, especially over the last two decades, has also increased concerns, on all sides, that the evolving distribution of power may create new frictions and suspicions,” Lieberthal said.

Yet, refusing to work with each other is not an option, the senior scholar, who also served in the Clinton administration, told the audience. Without the United States and China in conversation, progress in multilateral areas such as climate change and trade would falter, he argued. Given the two countries’ position as the world’s largest economies, the international system would effectively be constrained if the two were entrenched in long-term bitterness.

Lieberthal recognized the common admonition, “if we treat China as an enemy, it will surely become one,” saying this warning could be applied to both sides. China and the United States must make greater efforts to manage and mitigate tensions.

“The question is whether we can prevent bad things, not only specific conflicts, but the political tensions and politics that make cooperation on major issues very, very difficult at best.”

He then outlined a few steps that could help China and the United States sort out their disputes. His recommendations began with the need for strong determination on the part of top political leaders to move things forward and the importance of clear, consistent use of vocabulary when discussing issues.

As a final point, but one that was offered as a contingent factor to success, Lieberthal said U.S.-China relations and both countries’ roles in greater Asia will depend on “how effective each of us is in dealing with domestic reforms,” because, “that will determine how dynamic, how vibrant, how innovative, and how secure we feel.”

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During the lecture, Ret. Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry shared his observations from the Shangri-La Dialogue, an inter-governmental security forum held from May 30 – June 1 in Singapore. The Dialogue has in recent years become a gathering of premiere defense ministers to discuss security issues in Track I and “quasi-track” meetings.

Afterward, Eikenberry talked with Shorenstein APARC about key highlights and implications that emerged from the Dialogue:

 

IISS Photo KEikenberry Gallery Shangri-La Dialogue

Photo credit: Flickr/The International Institute for Strategic Studies 

Media reported a tense environment overlaid the Dialogue. What was the general atmosphere there?

The remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue by Japanese Prime Minister Abe and U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel on the one hand, and Chinese General Wang Guanzhong, made clear very different views on the causes for tension surrounding various maritime sovereignty claims in the East and South China Seas. Still, if you read the full text of all three speeches and the Q&As that followed, there is still great emphasis placed on dialogue and common interests. And in the many meetings that took place between national delegations on the margins of the conference events, the emphasis was on cooperation. 

What revelations at the Dialogue were surprising?

I think the degree to which dissatisfaction with China’s assertive behavior in pursuing its maritime claims was expressed by many of the participants – not just the United States and Japan. Vietnam, the Philippines and India were explicit. Analysts have said the only China (through threatening behavior) could contain China by catalyzing a counterbalancing response. From the results of the Dialogue, I think this is correct.   

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe emphasized values and international law throughout his keynote speech. What is your take on this?

The Prime Minister did emphasize both democracy and rule of law during his prepared remarks and answers to questions from conference participants. He was drawing an obvious distinction between Japan’s and China’s political systems and commitment to approaches to resolving territorial disputes. I think the Prime Minister is trying to establish Japan as a leader in East and Southeast Asia, and wanted to make clear what he views as important differences between the Japanese and Chinese “models.” 

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel referenced China’s suspension of the U.S.-China Cyber Working Group. What direction do you think the cybersecurity dialogue will go now?

It was unfortunate that China suspended its participation in the U.S.-China Cyber Working Group after the U.S. Government’s indictment of five People’s Liberation Army officers for alleged cyber theft. The U.S. Government has been providing the PRC Government with evidence of cyber theft being conducted by entities in China and has failed to receive any meaningful response so the indictments seem warranted. It would seem that the Cyber Working Group is precisely the forum to discuss this matter and the many related to managing the cyber domain with agreed rules and procedures. Working Groups provide a forum to address disagreement and disputes. I think China’s response was counterproductive and hope the government will indicate a willingness to resume the dialogues in the near future.

Where do you see the regional security conversation heading next?

The risk is that security dialogues will be divided into two camps – one led by the United States and its close allies and partners, and the other by China – somewhat isolated at this time but seeking to entice Asian nations to bandwagon to its side. Perhaps further regional economic integration can facilitate a more common approach to security, but this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue is perhaps a warning that trends, for now, are not heading in a positive direction.

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Abstract: 

The recently concluded 16th Lok Sabha elections in India was the biggest democratic election in history. It produced the first absolute majority in Indian national elections in thirty years and catapulted BJP and its leader Narendra Modi to power after a sustained presidential style campaign. The election decisively changed the political landscape in India and seemed to reverse a longstanding trend towards fragmentation of Indian politics along lines of region and caste.

What are the underlying dynamics that made this historic vote possible? Can BJP and Modi deliver the economic growth and employment that they promise? What are the necessary reforms and challenges that confront the new government? Will BJP remain focused on development, or will the older cultural and majoritarian agenda of the RSS and its associated organizations re-appear? What is the prospects for India’s multiple minorities in this new dispensation?

These and other questions will be debated by a panel of three Stanford based academics. 

 

Speaker Bios:

Thomas Blom Hansen (Moderator/Speaker) is the Reliance-Dhirubhai Ambani Professor of Anthropology at Stanford University. He is also the director of the Center for South Asia at Stanford. He has worked extensively on Hindu-Muslim relations, communal violence and the rise of Hindu nationalism in India. His books include The Saffron Wave. Hindu Nationalism and Democracy in Modern India (Princeton University Press 1999) and Wages of Violence, Naming and identity in postcolonial Bombay (Princeton University Press 2001).

 

 

Harish S. Wankhede (Speaker) research interest is to imagine theoretical spaces by interconnecting certain approaches and themes of social science mainly, Justice, politics of recognition and redistribution, secularism, nationalism and the Caste identity. The emphasis of his work is on the marginalized communities in India especially the Muslims, Dalits and the Tribals.

Currently, he is a visiting scholar at the Center for South Asia, Stanford University and working on a research project on the Dalit Panthers’ Movement in Maharashtra. He teaches at the Department of Political Science, University of Delhi.

 

Alexander Lee (Speaker) is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. In the fall of 2014 he will be an assistant professor of political science at the University of Rochester. His research focuses on the historical factors governing the success or failure of political institutions, particularly in South Asia and other areas of the developing world. His work has been published in World Politics and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Alex earned his PhD from Stanford in 2013. More information on his work can be found on his website.

 

This event is hosted by the Center for South Asia and the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. 

 

CISAC Conference Room

Thomas Blom Hansen Director Moderator Center for South Asia
Harish S. Wankhede Visiting Scholar Speaker Center for South Asia

Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow, 2013-14
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Alexander Lee's research focuses on the historical factors governing the success or failure of political institutions, particularly in South Asia and other areas of the developing world. His dissertation examined the ways in which colonialism changed the distribution of wealth in Indian society, and the ways in which these changes affected the development of caste identities. Additional research areas include the study of colonialism and European expansion in a cross- national perspective, and the causes of political violence, especially terrorism. His work has been published in World Politics and the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Alex earned his PhD from Stanford in 2013. More information on his work can be found on his website: https://people.stanford.edu/amlee/

Alexander Lee Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Ambassador Kathleen Stephens, the Koret Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, has been named the United States’ chargé d’affaires to India. Stephens was asked to step in to replace retiring Ambassador Nancy Powell at a critical moment, with the formation of a new government in India following the sweeping election victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party led by Narendra Modi.

Stephens will assume the position in June and remain until a new ambassador is nominated and confirmed by the U.S. Senate, the State Department said in a press briefing.

“I look forward to being in India during a momentous and promising time, and to working to deepen the relationship between the United States and India. My time at Stanford allowed me to engage with extraordinary colleagues and students at APARC and beyond, and will stand me in good stead as I take on new challenges in India,” Stephens said.

Stephens served as acting under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs in 2012. She was the U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 2008 to 2011, and principal deputy assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs between 2005 and 2007. Her connection to Asia began in the 1970s when she was a Peace Corps volunteer in South Korea.

She has been in residence at Shorenstein APARC for the academic year, conducting research and participating in projects related to U.S.-Korea relations and greater Asia. Stephens also taught a course for Stanford students while here.

Shorenstein APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin said Stephens’ appointment reinforces the Center’s tradition of scholarship and promotion of bipartisan interaction with governments.

“We’re delighted by the news of Kathy’s appointment. Her long-standing ties with Asia and foreign affairs experience will serve her well in this important position. Kathy’s presence greatly enhanced our Center’s work and research agenda, and we wish her well as she heads to India,” Shin said.

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The Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University is pleased to announce the 2015 class of undergraduate senior honors students. 

Honors students will spend four quarters participating in research seminars to refine their proposed thesis topic, while working in consultation with a CDDRL faculty advisor to supervise their project. In September, the group will travel to Washington, D.C. for honors college where they will visit leading government and development organizations to witness policymaking in practice and consult with key decision-makers.

Please join CDDRL in congratulating the 2015 Senior Honors students and welcoming them to the Center.

Below are profiles of the nine honors students highlighting their academic interests, why they applied to CDDRL, and some fun facts.  

 


Monica Dey

Major: Human Biology

Hometown: Nashville, TN

Thesis Title: Evaluating Information and Communication Technologies for Reproductive and Sexual Health in Uganda

Thesis Advisor: Josh Cohen

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Sexual and reproductive health is a significant problem all over the world, but especially in developing countries.  In Uganda, which has some of the highest fertility and highest maternal mortality rates in the world, investment and improvement in sexual and reproductive health could have enormous consequences for economic development, education equality, and public health.  In addition, with the boom in mobile technology in even rural regions, it is essential that civil society organizations and local governments discover the most effective methods to apply this technology to the toughest problems in sexual and reproductive health.  I hope to evaluate the pitfalls and potential of these mobile interventions, as well as recommend best practices for the field.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I love the interdisciplinary environment of the CDDRL, whose professors hail from departments all over the university.  I believe it is essential to approach development issues from a multitude of perspectives, and this philosophy is ingrained into the values of the CDDRL.  I am so honored to be able to learn from this community of scholars who care deeply about working together to create real impact with their research.

Future aspiration post-Stanford: I will continue working on international development issues after graduation, as well as attend medical school after taking a gap year (or two).

What are your summer research plans: I will be interviewing a cross-section of Ugandan society (public officials, organizational leaders, local people, and more) both remotely and hopefully in the field.

Fun fact about yourself: I went kayaking for the first time on the Nile River last summer!


Selamile Dlamini

Major: Management Science & Engineering

Hometown: Ezulwini, Swaziland

Thesis Title: Political Participation in Swaziland  

Thesis Advisors: Larry Diamond & Joel Samoff

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Political science presents several theories about how and why democratization occurs. Despite the democratic transitions that occured in sub-Saharan Africa during the post-colonial period, Swaziland has remained largely politically unchanged. My thesis will present Swaziland's interaction with the theories proposed in of political science, and demonstrate the extent to which events in Swaziland fit into these theories. Moreover, it will show the extent to which Swaziland differs, and presents additional nuance to the theories and models discussed in the field of democracy, development and the rule of law. This is particularly important in sub-Saharan Africa, where the presence and quality of democracy has been shown to be closely correlated to the development outcomes. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I am inspired by the fact that it is an interdisciplinary program, therefore, I can explore a single subject through multiple lenses.

Future aspiration post-Stanford: Eat, pray, love, and make a positive impact in the world.

What are your summer research plans: I will get started with the readings on my thesis reading list in June, and go to Swaziland to conduct some interviews in August.

Fun fact about yourself: I love writing fiction!


Max Johnson

Major: International Relations

Hometown: Edina, Minnesota

Thesis Title: The Economic and Political Scenarios for Cuban Regime Change and their Policy Implications 

Thesis Advisor: Alberto Diaz-Cayeros

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Cuba is one of the last staunch political strongholds resisting what many say is an inevitable fall to democracy. I believe understanding how this transition might take place will reveal a lot about democratic development and the formation of free markets. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I visited Cuba in 2011 and fell in love with the landscape and culture. The Cuban people are so beautiful and eager to live fruitfully and contribute to global society. I want to use my thesis to explore the multiple political perspectives of Cubans in Miami and Havana and try to predict how their lives will change with the end of the Castro regime. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: Find a fulfilling career that has an international perspective and will allow me to impact the lives of others in a positive way. And live in New York City. 

What are your summer research plans: I will be interning at the Project on Government Oversight in Washington D.C. where I'll be learning about corruption and transparency advocacy. I will also spend part of August in Miami interviewing Cuban-American activists and political leaders. 

Fun fact about yourself: I was a vegetarian my entire life until last summer when I lived in Port au-Prince, Haiti and was compelled to eat chicken. One thing lead to another and I found myself studying abroad in Madrid eating plates of freshly cured jamon Iberico every week. Needless to say, I've tasted the forbidden fruit, and I'm never going back! 


Hamin Kim

Major: Human Biology

Hometown: San Jose, CA

Thesis Title: Tuberculosis Control in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Thesis Advisor: Gary Schoolnik

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law?  Public health is important to the development and well-being of the local, regional, and global society. Management of infectious diseases also requires much coordination between the existing infrastructure and internal, as well as external resources. My research project on tuberculosis control investigates the process of building a control program for a widespread infectious disease. It illuminates the areas of need for development in the infrastructure and society of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, as well as the constraints and challenges in delivering the aid. Examining the management of a public health issue opens up a unique platform to investigate and aid the development of a reclusive nation. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?   The CDDRL undergraduate honors program offers the network and support of experts. I was attracted by the multifaceted focus on global issues, and was excited to examine development when democracy and the rule of law may not be manifested in the form that we expect. The required courses and readings would broaden my perspectives about the way that the world functions. Moreover, the expert guidance from professors would help me to apply these new insights to my research topic. The interdisciplinary group of colleagues who would participate in the program with me also attracted me. This is a unique opportunity to learn about global issues through lenses of different expertise and focus. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: My Stanford education has prepared me to engage people, culture, and issues with curiosity and critical examination. As a Human Biology major with an area of concentration in Global Health, I have been exposed to various issues which affect the health of many people around the world. After Stanford, I wish to become a physician with a global perspective who cares for patients in the context of their whole persons—their cultural, as well as personal, beliefs. I also hope to be involved in global health policy development and public health management in foreign countries. 

What are your summer research plans: I will conduct individual interviews with various health experts and gather information through file and literature reviews. 

Fun fact about yourself: Something I appreciate about college is that it has developed many new interests which I never knew I had. After joining Testimony A Cappella, I changed from not wanting to sing even in front of my family to breaking out in song and harmonizing whenever and wherever. I have recently revived my love of social dance and hope to pursue this further in my last year at Stanford!


Stefan Norgaard

Major: Public Policy

Hometown:  Boulder, Colorado

Thesis Title: The “Born Free Generation” and the Future of South African Democracy: Shaping a Transition to Accountable Governance

Thesis Advisor: Larry Diamond

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law?  In South Africa today, around 40 percent of the population is under 18 years and fully half of its people are under 25. These young South Africans have grown up in a fully different South Africa than that of their parents: apartheid rule, once a harsh reality, is now a past event even as racial divisions persist, and many youth only know the rule of the African National Congress (ANC) party, which has governed since Nelson Mandela’s 1994 election.  This “born free” generation has witnessed the fragile democratic system created by Mandela cave under increasingly stressed institutions during the Mbeki and Zuma presidencies. As young South Africans turn to new methods to make their voices heard, the upcoming 2014 elections may mark the beginning of a period of political realignment, a sounding call for accountable, issue-based governance. In this election, over 4 million of South Africa’s 50 million people will be eligible to vote for the first time, and they are increasingly frustrated about the lack of efficacy in South Africa’s government. A youth population that chooses not to engage through democratic channels may fail to reinvigorate a struggling nation. On the other hand, a population that translates its electoral significance into new government policies can help ignite a long-term political realignment in South African civil society.   

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  The CDDRL Honors Program offers superb faculty support and mentorship, a cohort of like-minded students pursuing similar thesis topics, and an interdisciplinary framework that allows for a capstone intellectual experience.  I heard from previous CDDRL Honors Program participants that Professor Larry Diamond, Professor Frank Fukuyama, and numerous other CDDRL-affiliated faculty support and mentor students, challenging them to produce the best theses they can.  In addition, the thesis coursework and Honors College experience allow for students to make close friendships with others interested in democracy, development, and the rule of law.  Finally, CDDRL’s interdisciplinary component will allow me to write a thesis on South Africa using historical accounts, ethnographic interviews, and quantitative survey data.  Using all three research methods will give me the type of comprehensive intellectual experience I was looking for in my thesis.  

Future aspiration post-Stanford:  Though I am not sure what my future will hold, I hope to spend time working internationally, ideally in public service.  I am drawn to social entrepreneurship, civic and political engagement through government service or advocacy, and the nonprofit and nongovernmental sector.  I love seeing new places and spending time in the outdoors, and hope that my future allows for such experiences as well.  As I learn more about myself as an individual, I hope to discover where I am most effective as an agent of social change and where I feel most passionately about the work I am doing.  I hope to ultimately attend law school and advocate on behalf of the public interest.    

What are your summer research plans: I plan to conduct research in Johannesburg and Bloemfontein, South Africa for my thesis while I work and stay at an urban planning and development nonprofit—the Global Regeneration Initiative for Neighborhood Development (GRIND)—in Johannesburg’s Maboneng Precinct. In my work I will apply coursework in Public Policy and Urban Studies with the larger goal of planning and developing a diverse and integrated urban neighborhood in Johannesburg.  A second portion of my summer will be solely dedicated to thesis work in Johannesburg and Bloemfontein.  

Fun fact about yourself: A Colorado native, I love climbing and mountaineering.  Of the continental United State’s 67 tallest 14,000 foot mountains (also known as “14ers”), I have climbed over 20 of them, and hope to one day climb them all!  


Cara Reichard

Major: Political Science

Hometown: Carlsbad, CA

Thesis Title: Regional Solutions for Human Rights in Sub-Saharan Africa

Thesis Advisor: Helen Stacy

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Many sub-Saharan African nations have, since independence, struggled with the protection of the human rights of their citizens. I believe this topic is important because it will, hopefully, offer perspective on ways in which human rights promotion can best be integrated into the current political and economic situations of these countries.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? Since freshman year I knew that I wanted to write a senior thesis, and CDDRL seemed by far the best fit for my interests. I was also attracted by the idea of being a part of a community of students who also cared about these issues and were eager to answer research questions of their own. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: I am still very undecided on my future goals, though I am strongly considering law school. After I graduate from Stanford I hope to spend a few years working in Washington, D.C. on something policy-related.

What are your summer research plans: For the first part of the summer I will be in Washington, D.C. working at the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor. After that, I will travel to Arusha, Tanzania, to conduct research for my thesis on the East African Court of Justice.


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Ashley Semanskee

Major:  Human Biology

Hometown: Edmonds, WA

Thesis Title: Private Wealth and Public Policy: Philanthropy, democracy, and public education reform in urban school districts

Thesis Advisor: Stephen Stedman

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? It is important to understand the role of philanthropy and other private actors in public policy debates, particularly in the realm of public education policy because it affects almost every child in the United States. Although philanthropic foundations may be important to drive education reform forward in a stagnant and torpid political process, the political influence of foundations may shut out the contributions of reformers without the wealth to legitimize their ideas, and it may undercut the public’s voice in education reform. Specifically, the school reform movement in recent decades has largely been driven by philanthropic foundations and .has pushed for market-based solutions including small schools, school choice, charter schools, and pay-for-performance schemes for teachers. However, opponents point out that market-based reforms do little to mediate the effect of poverty on education outcomes. Through this thesis, I will explore the education outcomes of opposing reform paradigms, and how philanthropic foundations can be held more accountable to local communities. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? I was attracted to the CDDRL honors program because I want to learn about issues that matter, study the policy debates that are shaping our world and, above all, perform research with real policy implications. I am incredibly grateful for the opportunity work with faculty members and a cohort of like-minded Stanford students as enthusiastic about democracy and development as I am. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: After graduation, I hope to pursue my joint interests in health and education policy, and eventually apply to a MPH/MBA program. 

What are your summer research plans: I will conduct interviews and data collection on the outcomes of public school reform in the Washington DC and New York City school districts. 

Fun fact about yourself:  Like Garima, I am a twin. I have a sister, Casey, studying business at the University of Washington. 


Garima Sharma

Major: Economics

Hometown: New Delhi, India

Thesis Title: Factors Shaping Parent Aspirations for Daughters in small-town Indian communities

Thesis Advisor: Christine Wotipka

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? India is home to 24 million child brides—the largest of any country in the world. The early marriage of a girl represents a trade-off in terms of her education, health and wellbeing. When compared with her overage counterparts, a child bride is twice as likely to suffer from spousal domestic violence, 2.5 times more likely to experience unwanted pregnancies, and 1.5 times more likely to die in child birth; her children are 3 times more likely to be malnourished. Because parents’ decisions for their daughter necessarily follow their aspirations on her behalf, understanding the latter is the first step to formulating policy and programs that alter incentives for encouraging female enrolment in school and delaying child marriage. I hope that my thesis is able to create new knowledge on parental aspirations in pursuit of this goal.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I am drawn towards the interdisciplinary nature of the CDDRL program because it is well suited for my thesis, which employs a mixed methods design and draws from literature in development economics as well as feminist theory. Incorporating various lenses for analysis will enable me to glean a more holistic understanding of factors that shape parent aspirations (for daughters) than would a purely economic or purely feminist approach. Additionally, I believe that the support provided through the year-long CDDRL Honors Seminar will be invaluable in terms of the design and execution of my field research and data analysis. Finally, I am excited by the prospect of working with a community of scholars (both Professors and peers) who come from many different academic backgrounds and interests, and will, through their insight on my proposed topic, enrich my learning as well as my research.

Future aspiration post-Stanford:  I hope to leverage policy to advance women’s rights in India and across the world. 

What are your summer research plans: For the first part of the summer, I will be working as a Stanford in Government Fellow at the International Labour Organization DWT South Asia office in Delhi. I will then travel to Forbesganj, Bihar to conduct field research for my thesis.

Fun fact about yourself: I am one of two. I have a twin sister, named Anima, who attends medical school in India.


Thuy Tran

Major: Economics

Hometown: San Diego, California

Thesis Title: What´s in it for us? The Incentives and Strategic Decisions by For-Profit Firms to Engage in Social Impact Initiatives.

Thesis Advisor: Stephen Krasner

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Consumers these days are eager to take part in social change and large corporations have lately made this very easy for consumers; companies like TOMS Shoes that base their business models on charitable giving, as well as companies that attach social causes to their products, are very popular among citizens interested in being "charitable". Obviously, these companies have motivations for participating in social change movements and this recent phenomenon of "corporate social responsibility" shows how corporations are adapting to changing societal preferences. But whether these initiatives are effective is another issue and it is crucial that these companies are not doing more harm than good. Understanding the incentives for firms to engage in social impact is the first step to assessing the level of success of these programs.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I was drawn to the CDDRL undergraduate honors program because of the possibility to establish strong relationships with my fellow honors students and faculty in the CDDRL. The program offers a chance for students to closely interact with each other during the honors thesis process and I am sure that we will all be able to teach each other something new. I am also very excited to work closely with the CDDRL faculty and for the opportunity to pick their brains! 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: I would love a career that allows me to combine my technical and artistic interests, that makes me excited to go to work, and that allows me learn new things everyday! 

What are your summer research plans:  I plan on doing extensive research into particular industries that engage in social impact projects, namely consumer brands and also companies that have built their business models on charitable giving. Hopefully I will also have a chance to interview decision makers at these companies as well to better understand the true incentives and thought processes behind corporate social responsibility tactics. 

Fun fact about yourself: When I was younger, I used to hate the first day of school because none of my teachers knew how to pronounce my name! 

 


Shawn Tuteja

Major: Mathematics

Hometown: Birmingham, Alabama

Thesis Title: Rethinking the Institutional Design of Deliberative Democracy through an Analysis of the Impact of the Moderator 

Thesis Advisor: James Fishkin

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? When deliberative democracy is implemented, it usually takes the form of members of society gathering to debate key issues. Moderators usually facilitate these discussions, and the key assumption is that the moderators do not influence the people's final opinions. I argue that there is a great amount of statistical analysis that has not been done to verify this assumption. If the moderator does contribute to people's opinions, it may mean that we should rethink the institutional design of these processes. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I have ben interested in issues of international affairs and democracy since I was in high school, and I wanted the opportunity to explore these passions in an honors thesis. The CDDRL undergraduate honors program provided the perfect opportunity. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford:  I hope to continue studying and learning skills (such as the ones that I will hone in working on this honors thesis) to better society through whatever job I eventually decide on.   

What are your summer research plans:  I will work to test the mass amounts of data that I will be working with. This includes designing a coding system, running statistical analysis, and analyzing the results. 

Fun fact about yourself: I once starred in a PBS TV show on the benefits of recycling. Oh, and I'm a huge fan of the TV show Friday Night Lights.

 

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In this Reuters blog post CISAC Affiliate and South Asia expert Anja Manuel explains that, while India now has more equal wealth distribution than the United States, the outcome of the ongoing general election in India could shift the economic dynamics at play in the country.

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Keynote Speakers

WANG YIMING, Deputy Secretary General, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)

The Institutional Problems in China’s Urbanization Process

CAI FANG, Director, Institute of Population Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences

Urbanization and Labor Markets in China

LI SHUZHUO, Director, Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University

Fertility, Sex Ratio, and Family Planning Policies in China

Stanford Center at Peking University

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Has the global food price bubble  burst, and if so, does it matter? In the first installment of FSE's new Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series, Professor Thomas Hertel of Purdue University and Professor Johann Swinnen of Leuven University outlined global trends in the cost of food, and explained how a drop in prices after the food price shocks of 2007-2008 might affect global politics and economics.

What drives food prices?

As population growth and rising incomes put pressure on the global food supply, many scholars consider high food costs to be the "new normal," especially following the food price shocks of 2007-2008. Professor Thomas Hertel challenged this view, saying that "To look forward 45 years, you have to look back 45 years" at what factors actually impact food prices.

Prices for many food commodities fell between 1961 and 2006, despite strong population and income growth, because the world was able to triple crop production during the same period. Since the recent price spikes, the "food price bubble" seems to have burst, with prices falling steadily since 2009.

Although population will continue to grow over the next several decades, the rate of growth is slowing worldwide and is mostly concentrated in developing countries, where per capita purchasing power is relatively low. This minimizes the pressure that population growth puts on the global food supply.

Economic factors may be more influential. "For the first time in history," Hertel said, "income will surpass population as a driver of global food demand." As countries move up the income scale, they consume richer diets of input-intensive products like meat, dairy and processed foods.

Energy prices also influence global food costs. As oil and gas prices rise, demand grows for alternative fuels like ethanol. Half of the increase in corn production over the past several decades came from the growing demand for ethanol, which was fueled by government mandates and which drove up the global price of corn. These mandates have been rolled back in recent years, however, and demand growth for biofuels has waned.

Hertel added that issues around climate change, urbanization, water supply, food waste and deforestation may also impact global food prices in the future.

Many scholars point to crop yields as a way to close the gap between food supply and demand and keep prices low. But Hertel cautioned that scientists and policymakers may be constrained by technical and economic limits.

To further increase yields "is a bigger job than simply doing some more science in the lab," Hertel said. But he noted with optimism that new investments in research and development have risen sharply from both the public and private sector, particularly in countries like China, India and Brazil where food security is a pressing issue. 

Impacts of the food price bubble

Professor Johann Swinnen explained that if the food price bubble has in fact burst, the next several years are likely to bring a shift in the politics and economics of global food issues.

The recent bubble coincided with an increase in both policy attention and donor funding to combat food insecurity - a focus that has benefitted both farmers and consumers, but that could wane as prices fall.

While the high prices of 2007-2008 benefited farmers, they in turn hurt low-income consumers in urban areas. And because people in high-density areas find it easier to organize and voice their concerns over government policies, they are more likely to capture media attention.

This "urban bias," as Swinnen described it, influenced policymakers to respond to the heavy media coverage. His team found that after 2007, agricultural funding from the World Bank, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) all rose sharply. The percentage of global development aid targeted toward agriculture also grew.

Swinnen described the social and political conditions of 2007-2008 as a "perfect storm" that shifted the attention of policymakers toward global food security investments. Paradoxically, Swinnen explained, this policy response to urban unrest over food prices ultimately benefitted both rural and urban populations, by boosting agricultural investments for food producers while also helping lower costs for consumers.

 The Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series will run for three years and will consist of a total of ten lectures spanning a wide range of issues around global food and nutrition policy. It is funded by Zachary Nelson, '84 and Elizabeth Horn. The series follows on the successful two-year Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series which concluded in May 2013 and was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Abstract: Motivated by India’s nationwide biometric program for social inclusion, we analyze verification (i.e., one-to-one matching) in the case where we possess similarity scores for 10 fingerprints and two irises between a resident’s biometric images at enrollment and his biometric images during his first verification. At subsequent verifications, we allow individualized strategies based on these 12 scores: we acquire a subset of the 12 images, get new scores for this subset that quantify the similarity to the corresponding enrollment images, and use the likelihood ratio (i.e., the likelihood of observing these scores if the resident is genuine divided by the corresponding likelihood if the resident is an imposter) to decide whether a resident is genuine or an imposter. We also consider two-stage policies, where additional images are acquired in a second stage if the first-stage results are inconclusive. Using performance data from India’s program, we develop a new probabilistic model for the joint distribution of the 12 similarity scores and find near-optimal individualized strategies that minimize the false reject rate (FRR) subject to constraints on the false accept rate (FAR) and mean verification delay for each resident. Our individualized policies achieve the same FRR as a policy that acquires (and optimally fuses) 12 biometrics for each resident, which represents a five (four, respectively) log reduction in FRR relative to fingerprint (iris, respectively) policies previously proposed for India’s biometric program. The mean delay is  sec for our proposed policy, compared to 30 sec for a policy that acquires one fingerprint and 107 sec for a policy that acquires all 12 biometrics. This policy acquires iris scans from 32–41% of residents (depending on the FAR) and acquires an average of 1.3 fingerprints per resident.

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Lawrence M. Wein
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Corn yields in the central United States have become more sensitive to drought conditions in the past two decades, according to a new study in the journal Science from a team led FSE associate director David Lobell.

"The Corn Belt is phenomenally productive," Lobell said, referring to the region of Midwestern states where much of the country's corn is grown. "But in the past two decades we saw very small yield gains in non-irrigated corn under the hottest conditions. This suggests farmers may be pushing the limits of what's possible under these conditions."

He predicted that at current levels of temperature sensitivity, crops could lose 15 percent of their yield within 50 years, or as much as 30 percent if crops continue the trend of becoming more sensitive over time.

As Lobell explained, the quest to maximize crop yields has been a driving force behind agricultural research as the world's population grows and climate change puts pressure on global food production. One big challenge for climate science is whether crops can adapt to climate change by becoming less sensitive to hotter and drier weather.

"The data clearly indicate that drought stress for corn and soy comes partly from low rain, but even more so from hot and dry air. Plants have to trade water to get carbon from the air to grow, and the terms of that trade become much less favorable when it's hot," said Lobell, also the lead author for a chapter in the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, which details a consensus view on the current state and fate of the world's climate.

Rain, temperature, humidity

The United States produces 40 percent of the world's corn, mostly in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. As more than 80 percent of U.S. agricultural land relies on natural rainfall rather than irrigation, corn farmers in these regions depend on precipitation, air temperature and humidity for optimal plant growth.

According to the research, over the last few decades, corn in the United States has been modified with new traits, like more effective roots that better access water and built-in pest resistance to protect against soil insects. These traits allow farmers to plant seeds closer together in a field, and have helped farmers steadily raise yields in typical years.

But in drought conditions, densely planted corn can suffer higher stress and produce lower yields. In contrast, soybeans have not been planted more densely in recent decades and show no signs of increased sensitivity to drought, the report noted.

Drought conditions are expected to become even more challenging as temperatures continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the researchers said.

Lobell said, "Recent yield progress is overall a good news story. But because farm yields are improving fastest in favorable weather, the stakes for having such weather are rising. In other words, the negative impacts of hot and dry weather are rising at the same time that climate change is expected to bring more such weather."

Extensive data

Lobell's team examined an unprecedented amount of detailed field data from more than 1 million USDA crop insurance records between 1995 and 2012.

"The idea was pretty simple," he said. "We determined which conditions really matter for corn and soy yields, and then tracked how farmers were doing at different levels of these conditions over time. But to do that well, you really need a lot of data, and this dataset was a beauty."

Lobell said he hopes that the research can help inform researchers and policymakers so they can make better decisions.

"I think it's exciting that data like this now exist to see what's actually happening in fields. By taking advantage of this data, we can learn a lot fairly quickly," he said. "Of course, our hope is to improve the situation. But these results challenge the idea that U.S. agriculture will just easily adapt to climate changes because we invest a lot and are really high-tech."

Lobell and colleagues are also looking at ways crops may perform better under increasingly hot conditions. "But I wouldn't expect any miracles," he said. "It will take targeted efforts, and even then gains could be modest. There's only so much a plant can do when it is hot and dry."

This animation shows the increasing sensitivity of U.S. corn to drought over time. Animation by Carlo Di Bonito.

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Lisa Griswold
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In conversation with Shorenstein APARC, Karen Eggleston, center fellow and director of the Asia Health Policy Program, reflects on her initial draw to Asian studies and eventual focus on comparative Asia health policy. She also shares perspectives on health reform in China and demographic change across East Asia, and talks about related upcoming activities.

How did you begin in Asia health policy?

I have long been interested in Asia in general. My initial appeal to the region came from my family’s roots (my grandfather taught Korean history at Berkeley) and early international travel. Only much later in graduate school did I come to the area of economics as a discipline and health policy as my specialty; however, I had been attracted to economic development and social policy in Asia earlier on. I started with an undergraduate degree in Asian studies, which followed with a Masters degree in Asian studies specifically focused on China and Korea. During graduate school, my father-in-law introduced me to unique perspectives, as he was a physician in China. When he visited the United States to present his work, I helped translate his findings. As my career developed, I had the privilege of working with many inspiring health economists, and economists interested in health policy, some of whom acted as my mentors at Harvard and here at Stanford - János Kornai, Victor Fuchs, Joseph Newhouse, Richard Zeckhauser, and Jay Bhattacharya, to name a few. These experiences helped to further narrow my focus and interests.

What led you to Stanford?

It was extremely exciting when the opportunity arose to come to Stanford. The university is a world-class learning environment and is unique in having a health policy program focused on Asia. I was recruited to the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at the founding of the Asia Health Policy Program. The Program is distinctive given its comparative approach focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, which differs from most other institutions. The west coast is also geographically closer to Asia, so you get a ‘flavor’ and infusion of Asian studies here more so than on the east coast. Not to mention, it was a delight to come back to my home state of California after many long years of New England winters.

To be a successful scholar of global health policy, what tools or perspectives should one be informed about?

Global health policy is a very complex field, and can be approached many ways. This, of course, makes it both exciting and challenging. My own approach is through the lens of economics. If you are looking at research and evidence-based policy, it can be beneficial to have either a social science background or a medical-clinical discipline (or both), perhaps combined with a specific geographic focus. Knowing about the history, culture, and institutions are very important for understanding health policy challenges. It also helps to build capacity within that region of focus. Partnering with practitioners and scholars in the country or region allows you to know what is really happening on-the-ground, and feed the research back into local policy decisions. I also think it is important to emphasize evidence over ideology – for example, to keep clear in your mind whether you are more of a policy advocate or academic. A scholar can play varying roles at different times in their careers, but it isn’t easy to do both fully at once. 

As China’s population and social inequalities continue to grow, are its current governance structures sustainable?

Even though political economy is not my expertise, institutions and how they adapt to a society’s needs is pertinent to anyone looking at health reform. For example, in China, there has been a lot of debate since the leadership transition and its implications for national health administration. Should health policy be led solely by the Ministry of Health, now the Health and Family Planning Commission? The Ministry runs the hospitals but is not in charge of the urban insurance system – this falls to Labor and Human Resources. Other branches of government administer regulation, pricing and other aspects of health policy. And of course the Ministry of Finance, and National Development and Reform Commission, play key roles. Like many countries, China has over 14 different ministries and agencies that are involved in the organization of its health system. Thus a relevant question is: who is in charge of taking the next step and coordinating between those entities? A health reform office was established directly under the State Council. Population aging is another issue that spans multiple sectors and policymaking entities. The Chinese government will be impelled to adapt its policies to face new challenges.

What are the connections between health policy and demographic change? Can you tell us about your upcoming work?

One important connection between health policy and demographic change is that the burden of disease changes as the population changes. A country with a large young population (like India) will have a different burden of disease than a country with a large older population (like Japan). If fertility and mortality rates decline, the burden of disease shifts toward chronic, non-communicable disease incidence. Partly, this trend reflects a ‘triumph’ from control of infectious disease and the demographic transition (with longer lives and lower fertility), but then it presents a new set of challenges for society to deal with problems of that older population. Some of my work compares China and India, which have similarities in size and socio-economic diversity. This May, I am helping to organize a conference at the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing with my Stanford colleagues Jean Oi, Scott Rozelle and Xueguang Zhou, and our collaborators at the PRC National Development and Reform Commission. The conference will compare urbanization and demographic trends in China and India. It is envisioned that the conference will lead to two separate book projects – one on urbanization in China in comparative perspective and another on demographic change in China and India. We will also present findings that were an outcome of a three-year research project, with initial findings published in The Journal of Asian Studies.

Tell us something we don’t know about you.

In my youth, I was very much into equestrian vaulting and played the violin. As one of my mentors said to all his students, ‘you might not be the world’s best at any one category, but if you look at the overlap between different categories, you could be distinctive.’ So I might very well be one of the world’s only horse-vaulting, violin-playing health economists, for what it’s worth.

The Faculty Spotlight Q&A series highlights a different faculty member at Shorenstein APARC each month giving a personal look at his or her scholarly approaches and outlook on related topics and upcoming activities.

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