Follow the link for a full transcript of "Global Threats: What's at Stake and What We Can Do About It."

Reform the Electoral College |  Didi Kuo

One of the major problems people feel right now in American politics is that their voices aren’t heard. We live in what my colleague Francis Fukuyama calls a "vetocracy," meaning there are a lot of veto points in our system.

In a lot of other democratic institutional configurations, you have rule by the majority. But in the United States, we have an institutional configuration that allows a very small group — for example, 15 people in the House of Representatives — to hold up government in various ways. We see this in dramatic examples on the national level, but it also trickles down to the local level where you see it in issues like permitting hold-ups.

Reforming the Electoral College would be a very direct way of changing that vetocracy. The United States is one of the only advanced democracies that has this indirect system of elections. If all the votes counted equally and all the presidential candidates had to treat all of us the same and respond to us equally in all 50 states, it would do a lot to show the power of the popular vote and realign us more closely to the principle of majoritarianism that we should seek in our institutions.

Allow Taiwan to License Weapons Production |  Larry Diamond

My recommendation is deterrence, deterrence, deterrence. It is not inevitable that the People's Republic of China is going to launch an all-out military assault on Taiwan. But if the United States does not do more to make that a costly decision, the likelihood it will happen are exponentially higher.

Deterrence works. The United States deterred the Soviet Union from moving against West Berlin and much of Europe for decades. But it only works if you have a superior force.

To that end, the United States needs to pre-position more military force in the region. There's now a $12 billion backlog of weapons that Taiwan has ordered and paid for but hasn't received yet. That’s because the American defense production system is completely broken. This is the same reason why we can’t get weapons to Ukraine at the pace we need there.

This issue could be fixed, at least in part, if we licensed the production of some of these weapon systems directly to Taiwan. Their ability to build plants and produce these systems is much more agile than our own, and so licensing the rights to production would dramatically increase the deterrence factor against China, in addition to deepening our cooperation with allies throughout the region.

Pursue Climate Mitigation AND Adaptation |  Marshall Burke

There are three things we can do in response to climate change: we can mitigate, we can adapt, or we can suffer. We’re off to a good start, but we have decades of long slog ahead of us to get that right. And it's not just us; even if we do a good job, we depend on other countries to also do a good job. The Biden administration has already been engaged on some of that front, but there’s more work to do there.

And even with our best efforts, we are not going to be able to move as fast as we want or mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as we need to avoid climate change. So, we're going to have to live with some climate change, which means adaptation. And if we can't adapt, then we're going to suffer. 

The key point is that we are very poorly adapted to today's climate, much less the climate we're going to have 30 or 50 years from now. The West Coast and California are prime examples of this. There have been monumental wildfire seasons there the last few years, and there are significant negative health impacts from smoke exposure. I see it in my own home, even as someone who studies this and should know better and do more to reduce those risks.

The point is, we're really poorly adapted to the current climate, and things are going to get a lot worse. We need to focus on mitigation; it’s still really important and we need to get it done. But at the same time, we need to figure out how to adapt and live with the changing climate that we're going to experience.

Weapons for Ukraine, Sanctions on Russia |  Michael McFaul

When I was in Kyiv this September, I had a chance to meet with President Zelenskyy, and he pointed out an absolutely crazy reality. Companies in the United States and Europe are still making tens of thousands of dollars in profits from selling various technologies that ultimately end up in Russia. It’s getting in through places like Hong Kong and Kazakhstan and Belarus and Georgia, and it allows Russia to keep waging its horrific war.

At the same time, the United States is spending millions of dollars to arm Ukraine with systems to shoot down the Russian rockets that were built using the components they got from the West. That’s completely illogical, bad policy. I know it’s hard to control technology, but we have to find a better way than what we’re doing right now. If you're an American taxpayer, that is your money being wasted.

That means more and better weapons for Ukraine, faster. And that means more and better sanctions on Russia, faster. That is the way to speed the end of this war.

Be Confident in America |  Amichai Magen

Just a few short years ago, we were all talking about the decline of the United States. I think that is far from inevitable. People speak about the 20th century as the “American Century.” The 21st century can also be the American Century. It's in our hands.

Be bullish on America. Be confident in America. Rediscover the spirit of America for adaptation and innovation and entrepreneurship. We need to wake up from the break we’ve taken from history in the post-Cold War era and rally once again in our spirit, our research, and our intellect.

We need to find new solution structures to the great challenges of our era: environmental challenges, AI, biotechnological challenges, nuclear challenges. And we can do it. China is on the verge of demographic decline and economic decline. Russia is a very dangerous international actor, but it is not a global superpower. We must reinvent the institutions and the alliances that we need for the 21st century in order to make sure that we continue a journey towards greater peace and prosperity for all of mankind.

The entire discussion, including the audience Q&A, is available to watch on FSI's YouTube channel. To stay up to date on our content, be sure to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications.

Anton Turupalov is a political consulting and government relations professional in Ukraine with extensive experience in public service. He has previously served as Deputy Mayor of Mykolayiv, Advisor to the Minister of Healthcare of Ukraine, and Advisor to the Head of the Parliament of Ukraine. Anton's expertise lies in regional policy and local administration. As a key advisor on regional policy to the former Prime Minister of Ukraine, he played a pivotal role in implementing groundbreaking system changes, including land and administrative reform. Anton organized Ukraine's first coronavirus isolation facility during the COVID-19 pandemic under challenging circumstances. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, Anton co-organized the Assistance Coordination Center in Warsaw, a hub for coordinating humanitarian aid between Ukrainian and Polish authorities, international donors, and organizations. Currently based in Warsaw, Anton serves as an advisor to the Minister of Agriculture and Food of Ukraine.

Project Description: Anton is spearheading the creation of the Ukrainian Endowment for Democracy (UED), a platform dedicated to protecting and developing democracy in Ukraine. The UED aims to promote the transformation of the political system, establish effective institutions, and introduce equal rules of the game to build sustainable democracy. The Endowment’s mission is to promote democratic institutions, foster economic development, and support the political system’s evolution. UED will bring together responsible businesses and experienced reformers to address systemic national problems, shape the national agenda, partner with international organizations, and work on two fronts: promoting democracy and building a strong economy. It will support the development of democratic institutions, political parties, civil society organizations, and independent media, and promote Ukraine as a regional leader of democracy, as well as support Ukraine’s integration with Europe and the West.

In addition to establishing the UED, Anton is working on a secondary project focused on improving the efficiency, transparency, and responsiveness of reconstruction and humanitarian aid efforts in Ukraine. The project aims to develop a one-stop-shop system connecting international donors, relevant national government ministries, agencies, and local actors (region, town, and community-level stakeholders). This platform will enable a more transparent, efficient, and responsive mechanism for coordinating aid efforts in Ukraine, reducing corruption, improving prioritization, lowering net costs, and facilitating communication of needs and systemic issues by local administrations.

Gulsanna ("Sanna") Mamediieva led strategic planning and European integration of the digital sector of Ukraine as Director General for EU Integration at the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. She played a significant role in Ukraine’s integration into the EU Digital Single Market and the rapid digital transformation of Ukraine, including building the government ecosystem “Diia” (The State and Me), which makes it easy and secure for Ukrainians to obtain digital documents (driver’s licenses, passports, etc.), access public services online (such as paying taxes, business registration), developing digital skills, electronic communication and growth of ICT industry. This influence made Ukraine one of the world leaders in public innovation and, without exaggeration, European “digital tiger.” It also served as a backbone of Ukrainian resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic and wartime. Since February 2022, she has coordinated international technical assistance to support Ukraine’s digital resilience. Gulsanna also initiated exporting Ukrainian digital transformation experience to other countries. The first case is with Estonia, which will present its government state application, “Mrik,” which is based on Ukraine’s “Diia” app. Gulsanna currently serves as an Advisor to the Vice Prime Minister on Innovation, Technology and Education, and to the Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. She is also Director for Programs and Partnerships at Digitally GovTech Center of Excellence, a member of the Council of Europe’s Committee on Artificial Intelligence, and Coordinator for Ukraine at Eastern Partnership Harmonization Digital Market initiative. She was a Visiting Fellow at the McCourt School for Public Policy at Georgetown University before arriving at Stanford this summer. She holds a Master’s degree in Information Technology Law from the University of Tartu, Estonia, and is pursuing a Ph.D. in Internet Law at Carleton University in Canada. Before her government role, Gulsanna worked as an IT lawyer at DLA Piper Ukraine, specializing in ICT and Intellectual Property.

Project Description: Sanna has a number of tech policy areas of interest. She would like to learn more about innovation strategy development, edTech, govTech, military tech, AI for public purpose, saving ecosystems, biotech and medtech, and innovation parks. She is also interested in developing solutions and learning about comparative practices for upskilling and reskilling displaced people, mostly women, with a specific focus on the ICT sector. She has been very involved in building Ukraine’s digital capacity and IT sector development. Sanna is also interested in helping to build further digital capacities for better governance at both the local and national levels. To achieve this, she is keen on connecting with individuals in California, including local government representatives, who are engaged in similar efforts. She is also eager to connect with women in the Bay Area who have participated in ICT-related retraining and reskilling initiatives.

Gulsanna is interested in technology around elections, blockchain, and security that would be involved in structuring a way in which all displaced Ukrainians might have the opportunity to vote in the next round of presidential and/or parliamentary and local elections. She endeavors to understand the risks and benefits of such a system and, thus, is interested in connecting with experts in technical/computer science who are conversant in blockchain and e-voting, if only to explain why these ideas may not work that well. She is also interested in digital diplomacy, promoting and sharing Ukrainian digital transformation experiences.

Halyna Yanchenko was elected to the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) in 2019 and is the Deputy Chair of Sluha Narodum “SN” (Servant of the People), a centrist, pro-European and anti-corruption Party. Shortly after her election, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, tapped her to lead government investment efforts. In January 2022, she was appointed as a Secretary in the National Investment Council of Ukraine. In addition, she chairs the Temporary Special Commission of the Verkhovna Rada on protecting investor rights. Prior to being elected to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, she led the Civil Oversight Council at the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine. In 2014-2015 was a deputy of the Kyiv city council. Halyna earned a Master’s Degree in Sociology from the National University Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. She also studied for one year at Wichita Falls High School in Texas. 

Project Description: Halyna has many interests and was an important voice in the political process that led to the creation of “Diya” (a state cell phone application that has electronic IDs and provides public services to citizens and businesses) to make it easy and secure for Ukrainians to obtain digital drivers’ licenses, passports, health cards, and the like. This was very successful, and Ukrainians can now do all of this on their smartphones. Building on this success, Halyna is interested in using technology to assist in quickly employing veterans and returning displaced Ukrainians post-war. She is interested in engaging foreign investment for the recovery of Ukraine. She also wants to learn more about platforms and systems that can match skills with reconstruction priorities (as well as helping to map out those priorities). She would benefit from making connections in the private sector, including tech companies that could be helpful in these areas, as well as learning more from people who have worked in post-conflict zones on reconstruction priorities and organization. She also seeks to meet with emergency and disaster preparedness and recovery organizations at the state, federal and local levels or other contacts who may have experience in some of these areas.

Konstantyn ("Kostya") Chyzhyk is a Partner at British-Ukrainian law and consultancy firm Hillmont Partners, helping international companies develop business in Ukraine and advising the government and the parliament on economic and judicial reforms. As Deputy Minister of Energy and Ecology, Konstantyn coordinated European integration, investments, digital transformation, and security, worked on renewable energy sector stabilization and reform, launched new auctions on gas extraction, and managed the largest sectoral loan and grant portfolio in the government of $1.2B. As Deputy Head and later as Head of the Investment Promotion Office under the President of Ukraine, Konstantyn unlocked and secured more than $1B of foreign direct investments. As Head of Communications and International Relations of the Ministry of Finance, he promoted IMF-backed reforms and managed cooperation with investors and the IMF, World Bank, EBRD, and EIB. 

Project Description: Kostya wants to use his time at Stanford to develop a new vision for ways in which to attract foreign direct investment to Ukraine. He is interested in learning more about strategic, sectoral, and institutional policy and regulatory frameworks that Ukraine would need to have in place in order to attract foreign capital post-war. He is keen on engaging with professionals from private equity and venture funds. Additionally, he seeks to connect with regional authorities, both at the state and local levels, if applicable, who are actively involved in economic development and the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI). Kostya's intention is to gain insights from California's initiatives in this realm and also understand more about the factors that investors prioritize when considering investment in post-conflict areas.

Mykhailo Pavliuk is vice-chairman of the Chernivtsi Oblast (state) legislature in Ukraine. Among his central duties is the protection of the mutual interests of communities (known in Ukrainian as hromadas) and local governing bodies. His interests have long been focused on Euro-Atlantic integration, decentralization and deconcentration of authority in Ukraine, and the engagement of public and non-governmental organizations in policymaking. As acting Governor of the Chernivtsi Oblast State Administration in 2018-2019, Mykhailo focused on the creation of a successful administrative structure of new, capable, self-sufficient communities. In 2006-2010 shortly after his university graduation, he also organized long-term public discussions about the advantages for Ukraine of European Union and NATO membership. In his spare time, Mykhailo volunteers to deliver humanitarian aid to liberated areas of Ukraine and to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He also supports internally displaced persons in Chernivtsi and coordinates their resettlement.

Project Description: Mykhailo’s project is about local self-governance — its decentralization, finalization, and implementation in the post-war period in Ukraine. He wants to learn more about checks and balances between executive and local self-governance in the United States, how to empower self-sufficient communities (hromadas in Ukrainian, which are literally community-based forms of governance) and enrich them with practices of good governance (transparent, responsive and efficient), and also ways in which to engage citizens in local public issues. During his time at Stanford, he is interested in meeting with local government representatives in Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Mountain View, as well as state (California) government actors to understand better how (or whether) this works here.

Olena Kutsai is a lawyer with more than 15 years of experience in the international corporate sector, including work for Chevron and Scorpio Real Estate corporations. Olena currently serves as a Member of the Secretariat of the Business Ombudsman Council of Ukraine and is a Member of the Peace Coalition. In the Business Ombudsman Council, Olena leads high-level dialogues focused on improving the business environment in Ukraine. She is responsible for strategic cooperation with a number of stakeholders, including the Ministry of Digital Transformation and the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources. Olena drives several special initiatives to support the reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in 2022. She also develops policy recommendations promoting good governance, sustainable development, and the rule of law in Ukraine, working with the Government of Ukraine, Verkhovna Rada (parliament), the Office of the President of Ukraine, business associations, non-governmental institutions, international financial institutions (World Bank, EBRD), and international development organizations such as USAID and Agriteam. Olena is an author and co-author of the Council’s educational webinars and training for the private and public sectors. She holds a Master’s of Public Administration from the Ukrainian Catholic University and a Master’s of Law from the Eastern European University. Olena is a graduate of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s Leadership Academy for Development (Stanford University) and an advanced leadership course at Harvard Business School.

Project Description: Olena has an extensive background in business development and business advocacy. Her primary interest revolves around exploring effective strategies to reconstruct and revitalize the business community in Kherson, a region in southeastern Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation in the spring of 2022. Her overarching goal is to create models that can be scaled, adapted, and implemented in other parts of Ukraine.

Her past work has been focused on helping businesses forced to relocate from occupied or conflict-ridden areas of Ukraine. She helped these businesses secure new operational spaces, access essential services like electricity and internet, and rebuild disrupted supply chains to resume production. In Kherson, specific challenges arise due to the aftermath of flooding caused by the Russian military's destruction of the Khakovka Dam on June 6, 2023. Alongside her focus on business recovery, Olena also seeks to address the cleanup and restoration of vital services like electricity and internet, as well as the rebuilding of other infrastructure destroyed in the flooding.

Given the significant environmental damage in Kherson, Olena has found value in connecting with experts in food sustainability at Stanford, as well as climate and environmental scientists like David Lobell. She also seeks to engage with and learn from individuals with experience in disaster cleanup and recovery, both within California and on a national and international scale.

Impacts on Russia, Ukraine, and Beyond

Michael McFaul

The implications of the 72-hour mutiny will last much longer and extend much further beyond Rostov and Moscow, says FSI Director and former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul.

Speaking with Madeline Brand of KRCW, McFaul outlined the difficult situation Putin now finds himself in.

“This whole series of events has made Putin look a lot weaker than he looked three or four days ago. The very fact that the Wagner group exists is a sign of weakness. Putin needs them because he couldn’t rely on his armed forces.”

Elaborating further on Putin’s dilemma, McFaul says:

“As those mercenaries were getting closer to Moscow, Putin went on TV and sounded very macho, calling Prigozhin’s men traitors and promising to crush them, but then four hours later, he capitulates and starts to negotiate. And now he’s given another speech where it sounds like he’s pleading with these mercenaries to lay down their weapons and join the Russian forces. That clearly shows he hasn’t resolved this Wagner crisis yet.”

McFaul predicts that Putin’s remaining partners are also taking note of his fumbled reaction to the rebellion.

“​​If you’re Xi Jinping watching this, the big bet you made on Putin as a partner in opposing the West is looking really problematic right now.”

What Chinese officials fear most, McFaul explained to MSNBC’s Jonathn Capehart, is instability and dissolution, both internally and amongst their neighbors. Historically, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a catastrophic event for Chinese Communist Party officials, and a lesson the current leadership is loath to repeat.

McFaul asserts that, “The longer Putin’s war in Ukraine goes, the more probable it becomes that Russia becomes more unstable. The longer this war goes on, the more likely it is we could see something like this play out over and over again. So I would hope that Xi Jinping understands that putting pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine is the best way to prevent chaos on China's borders.”

There are also important lessons the United States and its allies need to consider when evaluating the kind of support they are willing to give Ukraine as the war wears on.

“Putin capitulated very fast, and I think that says a lot about how he’s going to fight in Ukraine and whether he needs an ‘off ramp’ like we’ve been saying. We’ve heard all of these arguments that if he’s backed into a corner he’ll never negotiate. Well, this weekend Putin was in a corner, and he didn't double down. He didn't escalate. He negotiated,” McFaul observes.

Continuing this thought on his Substack, McFaul emphasized that, “The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield, not when there is a stalemate. Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis. The sooner Putin fears he is losing the war, the faster he will negotiate.”

Or, as McFaul writes in Journal on Democracy, “Anything that weakens Putin is good for Ukraine. It is as simple as that.”  

Fallout on Nuclear Security and Norms

Rose Gottemoeller

Throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been concerns about nuclear sabre rattling by Putin and Kremlin-backed propagandists. Writing in the Financial Times, Rose Gottemoeller, the Steven C. Házy Lecturer at CISAC and former Deputy Secretary of NATO offered this insight:

“The fixation with nuclear apocalypse seems to be the symptom of a wider anxiety that the west is bent on Russian dismemberment because of its aspirations in Ukraine. The Kremlin argues that it only wanted to resume its ancestral right to a Slavic heartland, but that the U.S. and NATO are seeking as punishment Russia’s full and complete destruction as a nation state.”

Gottemoeller has been quick to condemn Putin’s casual threats of nuclear use and clear in her recommendations to the U.S. administration and its allies to find constructive ways to keep nuclear arms talks open despite the war in Ukraine and setbacks like Russia’s suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty.

The Wagner takeover of Rostov-on-Don adds a new layer to the security concerns surrounding Russia’s nuclear posture. Looking at the evolution of Putin’s nuclear rhetoric over the last 18 months, Gottemoeller writes:

“Putin embraced nuclear weapons to keep the United States and its NATO allies off his back and out of his way as he pursued his adventure in Ukraine. It did not work out that way. The United States and NATO were not ready to fight inside Ukraine, but they were willing to do everything else to support Kyiv’s cause — economic, political, security and military assistance to ensure Russia’s defeat. Nuclear weapons failed Putin as a guarantee against external meddling.”

Turning to the events of the last week, Gottemoeller continues:

“We learned on June 24 that they are no help to him internally, either. He could not brandish nuclear weapons in the face of the Wagner Group uprising . . . Nuclear weapons are not the authoritarian’s silver bullet when his power is strained to the breaking point — far from it. In fact, they represent a consummate threat to national and global security if they should fall into the wrong hands in the course of domestic unrest.”

In light of Prigozhin’s mutiny, she urges global leaders to “focus on the problem, stop loose nuclear talk, and put new measures in place to protect, control and account for nuclear weapons and the fissile material that go into them.” 

The Unknown Unknowns of the Settlement

Steven Pifer

Major questions remain about the deal struck between Putin, Prigozhin, and Lukashenko. While Lukashenko has confirmed that the Wagner boss is now in Belarusian territory, it is unclear — and many feel, unlikely — that he will stay there in quiet retirement. 

Weighing in on Twitter, Steven Pifer, an affiliate at the Center for International Cooperation and Security and The Europe Center, and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, acknowledged, “We likely do not know all carrots and/or sticks that were in play to lead to Prigozhin’s decision to end his mutiny . . . Something does not add up.”

Following up in Politico, Pifer added:

“The ‘settlement’ supposedly brokered by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus leaves Putin, who was invisible during the day except for a short morning TV broadcast, as damaged goods. It provided the impression that all was forgiven, likely because the Russian president feared the prospect of Prigozhin’s troops parading in Moscow — even if they lacked the numbers to take control of the capital. It is harder to understand Prigozhin. His demands went unmet, yet he ordered his troops back to garrison, accepted that they might join the Russian army that he detests, and meekly set off for Belarus. There clearly is more behind this ‘settlement’ than we understand.”

“It’s a victory when the weapons fall silent and people speak up.” Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been especially vocal about victory —and glory—for Ukraine. As Zelenskyy put it, his people will fight “whatever the cost.” The cost so far, according to the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, is 18,000 Ukrainian civilian casualties and up to 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed. As of February 2023, the U.S. estimates 200,000 dead or wounded Russian soldiers, but that figure may be as high as 270,000.

As well as the discourse surrounding victory, the war has been soaked with references to ethics and justice. U.S. President Joe Biden, for one, has claimed that support for Ukraine is “a profound moral issue” and “the right thing to do.”

But as the tanks first rolled across the border a year ago, Ukraine’s likelihood of defeating Russian aggression was considered remote. Most analysts expected a swift Russian take-over, seemingly doubting the smaller state’s willingness to fight, let alone triumph. Russia’s military ostensibly dwarfed Ukraine’s. Kyiv was forecast by experts to fall within the week. Two days after the invasion, world leaders urged Zelenskyy to leave and offered him a way out—to which he famously retorted, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” In other words, in the very early days, Ukraine did not seem to have a foreseeable prospect of success—or, to put it plainly, a reasonable chance of winning the war.

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