Guam, the small island territory in the Pacific Ocean, plays a unique strategic role in the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy. In a new article, part of a Hudson Institute collection of essays on the challenges and motivations of defending Guam, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro analyzes the island’s strategic importance to the United States, China’s threats to U.S. forces on the island, and the pathways to deterrence against Chinese encroachment in the region. 

Mastro enumerates a number of reasons behind Guam’s strategic importance. First, “the Chinese missile threat to U.S. regional bases, especially those located in the first island chain, enhances the operational role of those bases sufficiently distant from China to partially mitigate the threat it poses, yet also close enough to be operationally impactful.” Guam’s geostrategic potential is rooted in its proximity to China, and represents “the westernmost location from which the U.S. can project power, manage logistics, and establish command and control.” 

In a Taiwan contingency, Mastro argues that Guam would play an important role as a logistics hub and jumping-off point for combat forces headed toward the Taiwan Strait, with the caveat that U.S. forces could maintain roughly half the sortie rate from Guam as that from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan. Another reason behind Guam’s strategic utility comes from reliable base access, which is more reliable than in other Asian host countries.

Despite the U.S. force posture and the island’s protective distance from China, Guam remains vulnerable to Chinese intermediate-range ballistic missile attack. According to Mastro, the U.S. has systems on the island to protect against missile threats, such as a THAAD battery, but “U.S. military commanders want much more of a guarantee that the U.S. would be able to continue operations out of Guam even under Chinese missile attack.”

Given China’s ability to threaten U.S. bases on the island, Mastro proposes an “unappreciated and underutilized” pathway to deterrence: deterrence by resiliency. Similar to deterrence by punishment, which seeks to prevent adversary attacks by employing the threat of severe penalties should the adversary do so, deterrence by resiliency is based primarily on shaping adversaries’ perceptions of one’s own capabilities. “However, unlike deterrence by punishment, the goal is not to create fear of retaliation but rather to encourage the perception that disruptive events would have little effect on an adversary.” Mastro uses the term resiliency to refer to a state’s ability to both absorb and deflect costs at a given level of violence.

Mastro argues that resilience is about signaling to China that “the benefits it would derive from a particular action would actually be less than it believes them to be. Improving defenses can enhance deterrence through this mechanism, but, given its limitations, other avenues—in particular, pursuing viable alternatives and creating redundancy—should also be pursued to ensure that an attack on Guam would not cripple a U.S. war effort.”

Guam, frequently cited as the U.S.’s viable alternative to bases within the first island chain, represents a critical strategic waypoint, but as long as the U.S. is reliant on the island to fight and win a war, “China will ensure that it can effectively target the island, thus making messaging associated with Guam’s defense key.” Mastro proposes that the language about defending Guam must expand to accomodate resilience contingencies for the island’s planned defenses, which, “once in place and even under attack […] would ensure that the US could continue operations there to the degree necessary to, for example, maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait.” 

Whether China would accept deterrence by resilience remains to be seen, but policymakers must employ new thinking about Guam’s defense to meet the new security challenges posed by China.

When the Department of Homeland Security’s Advisory Council announces it plan next week for overhauling how the agency combats the spread of disinformation online, its focus will be on “how to achieve greater transparency across our disinformation related work” and how to “increase trust with the public,” according to council meeting minutes released Monday.

Read more at Cyberscoop.com

Just days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Dmitri Medvedev, the former president and prime minister of Russia, took to social media to post a chilling message. He raged against Western sanctions on his country and suggested darkly that Russia could rip up some of its most important agreements with the West. He mentioned the New START treaty, the nuclear arms reduction agreement signed with the United States over a decade ago, but the threat was broader still: the sundering of all diplomatic ties with Western countries. “It’s time to hang huge padlocks on the embassies,” he wrote.

Read the rest at Foreign Affairs

After months of watching hundreds of new nuclear missile silos being dug in the dirt northwest of Beijing, it is welcome news that President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping seemingly agreed at last week’s summit on the need for strategic stability talks. Strategic stability — the idea that nuclear-armed countries should not be able to gain decisive advantage over one another — has taken on new importance as China expands and modernizes its nuclear arsenal.

China is expected to quadruple its number of warheads in the next decade, and is upgrading its nuclear capabilities with new missiles, submarines and bombers. Over the summer, it reportedly fired a missile from a hypersonic glide vehicle while testing its fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) — a technical advance that, if true, means the Chinese can attack targets from space with nuclear weapons. Although China insists it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons, this claim has less credence than in the past, when the country’s nuclear force was much smaller.

Read the rest at Politico 

In March 2022, SPICE released Introduction to Issues in International Security, an online lecture series that was developed in consultation with the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). Four CISAC scholars are featured in accessible video lectures that aim to introduce high school students to various global security issues.

Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez, high school educator, historian, and researcher, was an advisor to the first cohort of high school students to engage with the lectures. Ornelas guided students from San Jose and Salinas through the video lectures and accompanying curriculum. Students took the initiative to complete the series and assignments on top of their regular schoolwork.

Ornelas’s efforts culminated in the inaugural International Security Symposium that was held on May 26, 2022. The four CISAC scholars gathered online with the first cohort of students. The objectives of the symposium were to offer students a chance to interact with leading scholars in the field of international security and to learn from the scholars about careers in the field.

The scholars, who are featured in the lecture series and who were present during the symposium, are:

Dr. Martha Crenshaw, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (Terrorism and Counterterrorism)

The Honorable Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (International Security and North Korea’s Nuclear Program)

Dr. Norman Naimark, Professor of History and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (Ethnic Cleansing and Genocide)

Dr. Megan J. Palmer, Executive Director of Bio Policy and Leadership Initiatives at Stanford University, Adjunct Professor in the department of Bioengineering, and Affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation (Biosecurity)

During the symposium, the scholars shared key turning points in their careers and how they came to be in their fields of expertise. This was followed by student presentations in breakout sessions, where the students were given the opportunity to present on one of the four topics covered in Introduction to Issues in International Security.

In the breakout session on ethnic cleansing and genocide, Professor Naimark was impressed by how the students had absorbed the most important lessons of the material on mass atrocities: 1) that ethnic cleansing and genocide are an important part of human history, and 2) that these are phenomena that need to be studied and understood in order to prevent them from repeating in the future.

The student participants from Salinas were recently featured in an article in The Salinas Californian. Alisal High School student Ashley Corral commented that the series “brought awareness to COVID, mass atrocities and weapons,” and “it was really helpful that students from Salinas Valley could have that opportunity.” Another student, Bilha Piceno said, “It lets me see if this is something that I’m interested in."

The lecture series encourages students to think about international security not only on a broader level, but also how they can contribute to the safety of the world as global citizens starting with their own communities. Given the success of the first symposium, CISAC and SPICE hope to expand on the lecture series, which is part of their DEI-focused efforts, and reach more underrepresented minority students.

Sponsored by Stanford Global Studies, the Education Partnership for Internationalizing Curriculum (EPIC) Community College Faculty Fellowship program brings together a cohort of community college faculty and academic staff from various disciplines to work collaboratively with Stanford staff for one academic year (August–May). Each EPIC Fellow designs a project that aims to internationalize curricula and develop global competencies among community college students. Jonas Edman worked with four of the nine 2021–22 EPIC Fellows throughout the academic year. The fellowship culminated with the EPIC Symposium, “Integrating Global Topics into Community College Curricula,” which was held on May 22, 2022 and featured panels of current and past EPIC Fellows. The four EPIC Fellows with whom Edman worked are listed below. Each gave an overview of their project to an audience of Stanford faculty and staff, EPIC alumni, and other community college faculty.

Lauren M. Blanchard, Faculty, Political Science, Monterey Peninsula College
Project: Hands-on Migration: Service-Learning Curriculum in Global Studies

• The goal of this project is to introduce migration studies to Monterey Peninsula College. Crafting a service-learning curriculum will provide students the opportunity to dedicate a semester to the comparative study of internal and international migrations in the 20th and 21st centuries, alongside the chance to gain hands-on experience working with the diverse immigrant communities of Monterey County. This curriculum will provide insight into the international agreements and values that have shaped government responses to immigration in the past and will shape responses to migration in the 21st century.
   

Miloni Gandhi, Faculty, Global Studies and Workforce, Foothill College
Project: Virtual Study Abroad

• Virtual Study Abroad is a way to bridge equity gaps in international education at the community college. Study abroad is a unique experience to explore other cultures and traditions firsthand. However, it is often limited to those with the ability to leave their current situations for long periods of time or those with the financial ability to cover the opportunity cost of being away from home. Virtual Study Abroad allows for all students to have firsthand experiences exploring other cultures through meaningful curated content and authentic relationship-building with people in other countries without having to physically be abroad.
   

Tomasz B. Stanek, Associate Professor, History, Victor Valley College
Project: Global Ethnic Studies Course Proposal

• The Global Ethnic Studies Course Proposal involves the construction of a new global or hemispheric ethnic studies course with major emphasis on paradigmatic discoveries, environmental and indigenous ideas, transnational issues, climatology, human behavior, a trauma of conflict, and modern philosophy, all encapsulated into one community college course bound from the 1500s to the present. The idea of this course is to create an interdisciplinary discussion space and a comparative analysis beyond national borderlands and local marginality.
   

Alexandria White, Professor, English, Sacramento City College
Project: Black Atlantic Explorations

• The purpose of Black Atlantic Explorations is to provide a comparative approach to understanding the intersectionalities and divergences among Black Atlantic identities and experiences. Juxtaposing the diverse experiences of Afro-Brazilians, Afro-Caribbeans, and Afro-Americans through literature, art, and history will not only be provocative and inspiring, but will also plants seeds in our collective imaginations about the possibilities of Black Atlantic futures rooted in liberation and rooted in the “profoundest creativity to throw bridges across chasms, to open an architecture of space within closed worlds of race and culture (Guyanese writer, Wilson Harris).”

Following the panels, the EPIC Fellows received certificates from SGS upon their successful completion of the Fellowship. With the formal close of the Fellowship, they are now invited to join the Global Educators Network (GEN), which in partnership with Stanford Global Studies (SGS) seeks to inform, inspire, engage, and empower community college educators—and their students—to more deeply engage with global themes and learning resources, as well as international dialogue, research, and pedagogical strategies.

Reflecting on the EPIC Symposium, Edman noted, “Not only was it rewarding to observe the 2021–22 EPIC Fellows giving their impressive presentations after a year-long preparation, but it was also gratifying to see EPIC alumni from many cohorts interacting with this year’s cohort and encouraging them to join GEN. Importantly, I am most grateful to Kristyn Hara for expertly facilitating the EPIC Program over the past year and for planning and implementing this year’s EPIC Symposium.”

The EPIC Community College Faculty Fellowship program is made possible through the support of Department of Education Title VI funding. Pitches of all of the nine 2021–22 EPIC Fellows can be found here.

Nearly every Latin American country opposed the U.S. war in Afghanistan in 2001. Most also opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Why is the region more divided on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine today? Despite the Latin American consensus opposing unilateral uses of force against weaker states, governments across the region have refused to impose sanctions on Russia to respond to its invasion of Ukraine. There are even some countries, like Brazil, whose diplomats in U.N. forums have condemned Russia while the executive ponders whether to help Vladimir Putin’s administration economically. Does Latin America solidly condemn interventions only when the United States is the intervener?

Read the rest at War on the Rocks