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Truth to Power, the first-ever history of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), is told through the reflections of its eight Chairs in the period from the end of the Cold War until 2017. Co-editors Robert Hutchings and Gregory Treverton add a substantial introduction placing the NIC in its historical context going all the way back to the Board of National Estimates in the 1940s, as well as a concluding chapter that highlights key themes and judgments.

APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, who chaired the NIC from 2005 to 2008, is one of the contributors to the book. In his chapter “New Mission, New Challenges”, Fingar discusses some of the challenges during his service with the agency. In particular, he reflects on two specific obstacles he faced during his tenure: executing the intelligence reforms drafted in the wake of 9/11, and repairing damage done to the NIC’s credibility by the failures of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

 

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Formed in 1979, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) works to provide policymakers with the U.S. intelligence community’s best judgments on crucial international issues. As a locus for coordinated intelligence analysis, the NIC’s work reflects the coordinated judgments of multiple agencies and departments in the broader intelligence community. But while it may be less shrouded in secrecy than many other intelligence offices, in some respects it is less well known.

In Truth to Power, published by Oxford University Press, editors Robert Hitchings and Gregory Treverton shed light on this little-understood intelligence agency. The volume provides the first-ever history of the NIC as recounted through the reflections of its eight chairs in the period from the end of the Cold War until 2017. APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, who chaired the NIC from 2005 to 2008, is one of the contributors to the book.

In his chapter “New Mission, New Challenges”, Fingar discusses some of the challenges during his service with the agency. In particular, he reflects on two specific obstacles he faced during his tenure: executing the intelligence reforms drafted in the wake of 9/11, and repairing damage done to the NIC’s credibility by the failures of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

During his tenure, Fingar wore not one but two hats; along with the NIC chairmanship, he concurrently served as deputy director of national intelligence for analysis (DDNI/A). He describes actions taken not only to restore confidence in the intelligence community, but also to effectively execute its expanded brief. For instance, having national intelligence officers take the DDNI’s seat at meetings afforded senior officials the opportunity to perceive their value and thereby rebuild confidence in the broader intelligence community.

The Council’s reforms would soon be put to the test by way of the production of an NIE on Iranian WMD. Fingar recognized that the estimate would be a strong indicator of whether the NIC had learned its lessons following the flawed 2002 Iraq WMD estimate, and that policymakers were certain to finely examine the end product for flaws (whether made unintentionally or with political purposes in mind). As such, Fingar needed to produce an NIE that was accurate, timely, and non-political, all while handling and incorporating newly received intelligence. Through the Iran NIE, Fingar found an opportunity to redress the often-fraught relationship between Congress and the intelligence community.

Fingar closes with a review of the NIC’s pathbreaking work in the area of climate change. At the behest of a U.S. senator, the NIC took on the task of producing an NIE on the strategic implications of climate change. The resulting study categorized countries according to both their vulnerabilities and ability to manage impacts, as well as the broader implications it had for U.S. national security over the next twenty years. And while policymakers ultimately did not use the report as Fingar had hoped, he takes justified comfort in pointing out how it laid the groundwork for additional reports that followed, such as the National Research Council’s 2013 report Climate Change and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis.

 

Read Fingar's Chapter

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Ari Chasnoff
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Secret negotiations between the U.S. government and Iran’s intelligence services over the fate of political prisoners led to a lasting friendship.


When Secretary of State John Kerry first asked Brett McGurk to lead secret negotiations with Iran to secure the release of Jason Rezaian, Brett’s initial reaction was that he did not have the time to give the new mission the attention it deserved.

“I was incredibly busy building this huge coalition [to defeat ISIS], developing a military campaign, and developing a diplomatic campaign plan,” said McGurk at a recent talk he and Jason delivered at Stanford about Jason’s new book, Prisoner.

McGurk was recently appointed the Freeman Spogli Institute’s (FSI) Payne Distinguished Lecturer. Prior to his arrival at Stanford, he served as the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS at the U.S. Department of State, a position he held in both the Obama and Trump administrations.

Sign up for the FSI newsletter to receive more stories like this directly to your email inbox.

Secretary Kerry was persistent, and Brett agreed to take on the sensitive assignment to secure the release of Jason, his wife Yegi, as well as four other Americans detained in Iran.

Jason, the Washington Post’s bureau chief in Tehran at the time, spent 544 days in the city’s notorious Evin Prison, much of it in solitary confinement.

Jason and Yegi’s ordeal began in June 2014. “[My wife and I] exited the apartment to go down to the garage. The elevator doors opened, and there was a guy standing there with a gun pointed directly at my face,” said Jason.

What ensued was prolonged captivity at the hands of the Iranian intelligence apparatus. But an unexpected friendship was a surprise result.

The diplomatic process to free Jason and the other American political prisoners began in the fall of 2014. Brett started by reading everything he could find about Jason and getting to know him through his brother Ali and other family members.

“As a diplomat working on these very difficult missions in the world, they’re rarely as personal as this,” said Brett. “This became very personal to me. It’s even more so now that I’ve read Jason’s book about what he was experiencing at the time, which really, honestly, I didn’t know.”

Jason was eventually released in January 2016, shortly after the historic nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, between Iran, the United States, and a number of other global powers, was implemented.

Brett boarded the Swiss plane carrying Jason and the other freed prisoners when it finally touched down in Geneva. “It was quite emotional,” said Brett. “I told Jason, ‘you don’t know who I am but we’re glad you’re home. You’re going to be taken good care of.’ Jason and I have become close friends, partially due to the experience that we both had,” he said.

As someone so directly affected by U.S. policy, Jason feels fortunate to have gotten to know Brett in return.

“It would have been impossible to predict the way our lives have criss-crossed the last couple of years,” said Jason. “Yegi and I ended up being Brett and Gina’s (Brett’s wife) neighbor, more or less, in Washington D.C. Even today, we just arrived in town and ran into Gina in the parking lot of the Stanford Mall.”

The book talk with Jason Rezaian and Brett McGurk was co-sponsored by Stanford’s Iranian Studies Program and the Center for International Security and Cooperation’s Middle East Initiative.

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*This event is co-sponsored with the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies.

 

Jason Rezaian discusses his new book, Prisoner: My 544 Days in an Iranian Prison, with Brett McGurk, the former Special Envoy to Defeat ISIS. Rezaian was the Washington Post’s Tehran bureau chief when he was imprisoned and McGurk led 14 months of secret negotiations with Iran that helped free him in 2016.

 

Jason Rezaian is one of the few Western journalists to have been based in Tehran in recent years. From 2009 until his arrest in 2014 he covered stories that tried to explain Iran to a general American audience, first as a freelancer for a variety of outlets and later as The Washington Post’s Tehran bureau chief.

He reported on two presidential elections, Iran’s nuclear negotiations with global powers, the effects of one of the most punitive sanctions regimes in modern times and environmental issues. In between those momentous topics he told the stories of everyday Iranians which sought to make them more accessible to readers, reporting on Iran’s small community of baseball players, the quest for the best high end hamburger in Tehran, and a clinic for female drug addicts.

In July of 2014 Rezaian and his wife were detained in their home and he went on to spend 545 in Tehran’s Evin prison, released on the same day that the historic nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was implemented. 

 

Brett McGurk is joining Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies as the Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer.

McGurk recently served as special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS at the U.S. Department of State. He helped build and then led the coalition of seventy-five countries and four international organizations and was responsible for coordinating all aspects of U.S. policy in the campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq, Syria, and globally.

McGurk previously served in senior positions in the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations, including as Special Assistant to President Bush and Senior Director for Iraq and Afghanistan, and then as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran and Special Presidential Envoy for the U.S. campaign against the Islamic State under Obama.

McGurk has led some of the most sensitive diplomatic missions in the Middle East over the last decade, including negotiations with partners and adversaries to advance U.S. interests. In 2015 and 2016, McGurk led 14 months of secret negotiations with Iran to secure the release of Washington Post reporter Jason Rezain, U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, and Pastor Saad Abadini, as well as three other American citizens.

 

 

Hauck Auditorium, David & Joan Traitel Building, Hoover Institution

435 Lasuen Mall, Stanford University

Jason Rezaian Iranian-American journalist
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Offensive cyber operations have become increasingly important elements of U.S. national security policy. From the deployment of Stuxnet to disrupt Iranian centrifuges to the possible use of cyber methods against North Korean ballistic missile launches, the prominence of offensive cyber capabilities as instruments of national power continues to grow. Yet conceptual thinking lags behind the technical development of these new weapons. How might offensive cyber operations be used in coercion or conflict? What strategic considerations should guide their development and use? What intelligence capabilities are required for cyber weapons to be effective? How do escalation dynamics and deterrence work in cyberspace? What role does the private sector play?

In this volume, edited by Herbert Lin and Amy Zegart—co-directors of the Stanford Cyber Policy Program—leading scholars and practitioners explore these and other vital questions about the strategic uses of offensive cyber operations. The contributions to this groundbreaking volume address the key technical, political, psychological, and legal dimensions of the fast-changing strategic landscape.

 

ABOUT THE EDITORS

Dr. Herb Lin is senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford University. He is chief scientist emeritus for the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board at the National Academies. He served on President Barack Obama’s Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity.

 

Dr. Amy Zegart is the Davies Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, and professor of political science, by courtesy, at Stanford University. Her previous books include Political Risk: How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity, with Condoleezza Rice; and Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11.

 

ABOUT THE EDITORS

Dr. Sameer Bhalotra is the Co-founder & Executive Chairman of StackRox, and is a CISAC affiliate. He is also affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), UC Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC), and Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He previously worked in cybersecurity at Google and as COO at Impermium (acquired by Google). In government, he served as Senior Director for Cybersecurity on the National Security Council staff at the White House, Cybersecurity & Technology Lead for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and in various roles in the Intelligence Community.

 

Herb Lin & Amy Zegart Stanford University
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Islamism has imitated, or colluded with, the state autocracies it claims to oppose. It has failed to suggest its own answers to economic problems, social justice, education or corruption, writes Hicham Alaoui in Le Monde diplomatique. Click here to read the full article, which is based on research that Alaoui presented at UC Berkeley and CDDRL on October 10 and 11, respectively.

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Co-sponsored with the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies.

Moderated by Larry Diamond, Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, Larry Diamond, and Francis Fukuyama. 

OVERVIEW SCHEDULE

Panel 1: Politics and Society

Political Elite Formation and Circulation - Mehrzad Boroujerdi

Iran after Ayatollah Khamenei: Regime Dynamics and Prospects for Political Change - Saied Golkar

What Befell the Democracy Movement in Iran? - Ladan Baroumand

Panel 2: Culture and Media

How Technology Has Helped to Transform the Society of Iran: What is at Stake? - Ali-Akbar Mousavi

Women, Gender and the Status Quo in Iran: Challenges and Prospects - Nayereh Tohidi

How the Iranian Government Lost its Monopoly on Media - Mehdi Yahyanejad

Panel 3: Economy and Environment

Iranian Winter of Discontent and Economic Challenges Ahead - M. Hesham Pesaran

Overview of Recent Trends in the Iranian Economy - Pooya Azadi

Goals, Tools, and the Performance of Monetary Policy in Iran - Asghar Shahmoradi

Iran: An Economy with Great Potential in Disequilibrium - Hamid Biglari

Panel 4: International Factors

Iran and the European Union after the JCPOA - Ali Ansari

Toward Democracy in Iran: Reform or Revolution? - Misagh Parsa

U.S.-Iran Relations in the Age of Trump - Colin H. Kahl

 

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Abbas Milani argues how the 19 May 2017 presidential election offers a window into the painful predicament of a democracy-minded society

—demographically young, globally inclined, and social-media savvy—subordinated to an authoritarian polity. Read the article here.

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Abbas Milani
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''US President Donald Trump’s decision to pursue a more aggressive Iran policy underscores his administration’s misunderstanding of the Iranian regime. Shelving the 2015 nuclear deal would not only heighten regional tensions; it would also embolden the very hardliners that the US has been seeking to contain," writes Abbas Milani in his latest for the Project Syndicate. Read the whole article here.

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About the Event: In conversation with Philip Taubman, General Hayden will discuss intelligence and cybersecurity challenges the United States faces in combatting terrorism, dealing with North Korea, Iran and Russia, and will assess President Trump’s relations with the U.S. intelligence community. 

About the Speaker: General Michael Hayden is a retired four-star general who served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency when the course of world events was changing at a rapid rate. As head of the country’s premier intelligence agencies, he was on the frontline of global change, the war on terrorism and the growing cyber challenge. He understands the dangers, risks, and potential rewards of the political, economic, and security situations facing us. General Hayden dissects political situations in hot spots around the world, analyzing the tumultuous global environment and what it all means for Americans and America’s interests. He speaks on the delicate balance between liberty and security in intelligence work, as well the potential benefits and dangers associated with the cyber domain. As the former head of two multi-billion dollar enterprises, he can also address the challenges of managing complex organizations in times of stress and risk, and the need to develop effective internal and external communications.

In addition to leading CIA and NSA, General Hayden was the country’s first principal deputy director of national intelligence and the highest-ranking military intelligence officer in the country.  In all of these jobs, he worked to put a human face on American intelligence, explaining to the American people the role of espionage in protecting both American security and American liberty.  Hayden also served as commander of the Air Intelligence Agency and Director of the Joint Command and Control Warfare Center and served in senior staff positions at the Pentagon, at U.S. European Command, at the National Security Council, and the U.S. Embassy in Bulgaria. He was also the deputy chief of staff for the United Nations Command and U.S. Forces in South Korea.

Hayden has been a frequent expert and commentator on major news outlets and in top publications, valued for his expertise on intelligence matters like cyber security, government surveillance, geopolitics, and more. He was featured in the HBO documentary Manhunt, which looked at espionage through the eyes of the insiders who led the secret war against Osama bin Laden, and in Showtime’s The Spymasters, a detailed look at the directors of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Hayden is currently a principal at the Chertoff Group and a distinguished visiting professor at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government. He is on the board of directors of Motorola Solutions and serves on a variety of other boards and consultancies. In 2013, the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA) awarded Hayden the 29th annual William Oliver Baker Award.  General Hayden is also the first recipient of the Helms Award presented by the CIA Officers’ Memorial Foundation.  In 2014 he was the inaugural Humanitas visiting professor in intelligence studies at Oxford University in the United Kingdom.  His recent memoir, Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror, has been a New York Times best-seller and was recently selected as one of the 100 most notable books of 2016.

Philip Taubman is Adjunct Professor at the Center for International Security and Cooperation. He is also the former Moscow and Washington Bureau Chief, and Deputy Editorial Page Editor, of The New York Times. Philip Taubman served as a reporter and editor at The New York Times for thirty years, specializing in national security coverage. He is author of Secret Empire: Eisenhower, the CIA, and the Hidden Story of America’s Space Espionage, and The Partnership: Five Cold Warriors and Their Quest to Ban the Bomb. He is working on a biography of George P. Shultz, the former secretary of state.

Michael Hayden Former director, CIA, NSA
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