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We study how an elite college education affects social mobility in China. China provides an interesting context because its college admissions rely mainly on the scores of a centralized exam, a system that has been the subject of intense debate. Combining the data from a large-scale college graduate survey and a nationally representative household survey, we document three main findings.First, attending an elite college can change one’s fate to some extent. It raises the child’s rank in the income distribution by almost 20 percentiles. Nevertheless, it does not change the intergenerational relationship in income ranks or guarantee   one’s entry into an elite occupation or industry. Second, while elite college access rises with parental income, the disparity is less pronounced in China than in the United States. In China, top-quintile children are 2.3 times more likely to attend an elite college compared to bottom-quintile children, versus an 11.2-fold difference in the U.S. Third, the score-based cutoff rule in elite college admission is income neutral. Overall, these findings reveal both the efficacy and limitations of China’s elite colleges in shaping social mobility.

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Economic Development and Cultural Change
Authors
Ruixue Jia
Hongbin Li
Hongbin LI
Lingsheng Meng
Lingsheng Meng
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*This event is at capacity and registration has closed*

Join the China Program at Stanford's Shorenstein APARC for a presentation by Hong Kong University of Science Technology Professor David Zweig covering his work on understanding the process of reverse migration of talent back to China. What he dubs “The Theory of Shortage.”

Drawing on surveys, interviews, and documentary searches, and employing both quantitative and qualitative methods, Dr. Zweig's presentation will show that a key to understanding the process of reverse migration of talent back to China was the returnees' ability to find a skill or a technology which was in short supply in China, thereby giving them a comparative advantage vis-a-vis locals who had not gone abroad in China's marketplace or in China's scientific or academic institutions.

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David Zweig

David Zweig (Ph.D., The University of Michigan, 1983) is Professor Emeritus, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Distinguished Visiting Professor of Taipei School of Economics and Political Science, National Tsinghua University, Taiwan. He was a Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard in 1984-85. He lived in Hong Kong from 1996 to 2019 and now lives in New York with his family. Zweig studied in Beijing in 1974-1976 and did field research in rural China in 1980-1981 and 1986 and explored the internationalization of southern Jiangsu Province in 1991-1997. Since 1991, he has surveyed and interviewed returned academics, scientists, entrepreneurs, and employees all over China as well as those who have remained abroad. He has authored or edited ten books, including Internationalizing China (Cornell University Press). His most recent book, The War for Chinese Talent in America: The Politics of Technology and Knowledge in Sino-U.S. Relations was published in August  2024 in the Asia Shorts Series of the Association of Asian Studies, distributed by Columbia University Press.

Philippines Room, Encina Hall (3rd floor), Room C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

David Zweig, Professor Emeritus at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Distinguished Visiting Professor of Taipei School of Economics and Political Science, National Tsinghua University, Taiwan
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Headshot of Pascale Massot on a flyer for her talk, "China's Vulnerability Paradox: How the World’s Largest Consumer Transformed Global Commodity Markets"

"China’s Vulnerability Paradox,” recently published by Oxford University Press, presents an original framework to explain the uneven transformations in global commodity markets resulting from the dramatic expansion of China’s economy. At times, China displays vulnerabilities towards global commodity markets because of unequal positions of market power. Why is it that Chinese stakeholders are often unable to shape markets in their preferred direction? Why have some markets undergone fundamental changes while other similar ones did not, including uneven liberalization dynamics across markets? And what does this mean for current debates around critical minerals and economic security? At a time of deepening US-China economic tensions, this book provides an alternative, granular understanding of the interacting dynamics between the political economy of Chinese and global markets.

Join the China Program at Stanford's Shorenstein APARC for a presentation by the book's author on this critical topic for China and the world.

Pascale Massot, Associate Professor of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa

Pascale Massot is an associate professor in the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa. She is also non-resident Honorary Fellow, Political Economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, and a Senior Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. In 2022, she was a member and adviser to the Co-Chairs of the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs’ Indo-Pacific Advisory Committee, which was tasked with providing recommendations to the Minister on the development of Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy. She also served as the Senior Advisor for China and Asia in the offices of various Canadian Cabinet ministers, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of International Trade, between 2015 and 2017 and again between 2020 and 2021. She was a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing and at Peking University’s Center for International Political Economy. She received her Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.

Philippines Room, Encina Hall (3rd floor), Room C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Pascale Massot, Associate Professor of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa
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Flyer for the seminar "Manipulating Authoritarian Citizenship: Security, Development, and Local Membership in China," with a portrait of speaker Samantha Vortherms.

Join Stanford's Shorenstein APARC China Program as we welcome Assistant Professor Samantha Vortherms from U.C. Irvine to discuss the findings from her new book, Manipulating Authoritarian Citizenship: Security, Development, and Local Membership in China (Stanford University Press, 2024).  In the book, Professor Vortherms examines the crucial case of China—where internal citizenship regimes control who can and cannot become a local citizen through the household registration system (hukou)—and uncovers how autocrats use such institutions to create particularistic membership in citizenship.

Samantha Vortherms, UC Irvine

Samantha Vortherms is an Assistant Professor at University of California, Irvine's Department of Political Science. She’s also a faculty affiliate at UCI’s Long U.S.-China Institute; Philosophy, Political Science, and Economic program; and a Non-resident Scholar at UC San Diego’s 21st Century China Center. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2017 and was a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow in Contemporary Asia at Stanford University’s APARC. From 2014-2016, she was a Visiting Research Fellow at the National School of Development's China Center for Health Economics Research at Peking University. 

 

Philippines Room, Encina Hall (3rd floor), Room C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Samantha A. Vortherms, Assistant Professor of Political Science at University of California, Irvine
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We estimate the wage premium associated with having a cadre parent in China using a recent survey of college graduates carried out by the authors. The wage premium of having a cadre parent is 15%, and this premium cannot be explained by other observables such as college entrance exam scores, quality of colleges and majors, a full set of college human capital attributes, and job characteristics. These results suggest that the remaining premium could be the true wage premium of having a cadre parent.

Journal Publisher
Journal of Development Economics
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
Lingsheng Meng
Lingsheng Meng
Xinzheng Shi
Binzhen Wu
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This paper empirically investigates the labor market effects of China’s 2007 VAT reform, which significantly reduced the tax cost of capital investment. Employing city-by-year variation in the reform, we demonstrate that the tax cuts increased the earnings of skilled workers and left the earnings of the unskilled workers unaffected. Moreover, we find limited impacts of the reform on employment for both skill groups. These results suggest that the tax incentives increased the relative demand for skills, thus resulting in a higher income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers.

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Labour Economics
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
Lingsheng Meng
Lingsheng Meng
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China’s college admission increased by five times between 1998 and 2009. While the college premium for young workers declined, that for senior workers increased in this period. In our general equilibrium model, a rising demand for skills (education and experience) explains both trends. A demand shock leads to an expansion in the elastic college enrollment, depressing the college premium for young workers. With an inelastic supply, experienced college graduates continue to enjoy a rising premium. Despite the low immediate premium, young individuals continue to flood into colleges because they foresee high lifetime returns. Simulations match empirical results well.

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The Journal of Human Resources
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
James Liang
Binzhen Wu
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Despite private enterprises dominating China's labour market, college-educated workers are still highly concentrated in the state sector. Using data from the Chinese College Student Survey, we find that 64 per cent of students in the sample expressed a strong preference for state sector employment. We also identify several factors associated with receiving job offers from the state sector, including being male, holding urban hukou status, being a member of the CCP, performing well on standardized tests, attending elite universities and having higher household income or high-status parental backgrounds. These findings suggest that despite China's economic transition, the private sector may still struggle to attract highly educated workers.

Journal Publisher
The China Quarterly
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
Lingsheng Meng
Lingsheng Meng
Yanyan Xiong
Sinclair L. Cook
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Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students' admission outcomes at 10-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim and achieve higher but are at greater risk of overshooting. The discontinuity reveals that, despite the educational and labor market consequences, students' self-evaluation based on exam scores is subject to information-processing heuristics.

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Review of Economics and Statistics
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
Xinyao Qiu
Xinyao Qiu
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Michael Breger
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Despite technological breakthroughs, healthcare inequality remains a pressing public health challenge across developed and developing nations. Low levels of income or education mobility can exacerbate socioeconomic disparities, leaving children from disadvantaged families with fewer opportunities to improve their social and economic prospects. Moreover,  children in families with low-income backgrounds are also more likely to experience poor health outcomes, perpetuating a cycle of disadvantage.

Huixia Wang, a visiting scholar at Shorenstein APARC, sees this phenomenon as an opportunity to better understand the dynamics of intergenerational health and how to interrupt patterns of persistent health inequalities across generations. Her research aims to identify potential interventions to improve health outcomes in developing regions.

An associate professor at Hunan University, Wang has spent the 2024 fall quarter at APARC. She recently presented her research on the intricate dynamics of intergenerational health metrics, particularly in China and Indonesia. Watch her talk, “Intergenerational Persistence of Self-Reported Health Status and Biomarkers in Indonesia,” on our YouTube channel.

Barriers to Intergenerational Health

While much has been written about the transmission of income and education across generations, “much less is known about how health is passed down between generations," Wang notes, highlighting a gap in the existing research. Emphasizing that health is a crucial factor in determining overall well-being, as it affects everything from mental health to economic productivity and social mobility, she asserts that good health is linked to better educational outcomes, higher earning potential, and improved labor market performance. Poor health, on the other hand, is associated with lower educational attainment, reduced employment prospects, and higher rates of chronic illness.

Wang’s research approach centers on recognizing the multiple challenges in implementing maternal health-oriented policies. Having identified limited access to healthcare services as a significant barrier, she considers how, in many low-income and rural areas, “access to quality healthcare is constrained by poor infrastructure, lack of transportation, and shortages of healthcare professionals, making it difficult for pregnant women to receive essential care.”

Another obstacle is the prohibitive cost of healthcare. In countries where maternal health services are not subsidized or free, the financial burden of out-of-pocket expenses for transportation, medications, and other related costs can prevent women from accessing necessary care. Furthermore, Wang shows that low levels of maternal health education can contribute to poor health-seeking behaviors. “Many women may not recognize the warning signs of complications, may not fully understand the importance of prenatal care, or may be unaware of their rights to healthcare services,” she says.

Measuring Health Outcomes Across Generations

Wang acknowledges the difficulties in studying intergenerational health mobility, as it cannot be neatly defined and measured by observable metrics such as income or education. Health is much more subjective and varies from person to person. To gauge health outcomes, researchers must therefore rely on diverse and sometimes imprecise indicators, such as the presence of chronic diseases.

Moreover, to examine intergenerational mobility, researchers need data that includes health information for both parents and children. Such datasets are not always readily available, and those that do exist often lack the necessary granularity and long-term tracking to provide meaningful insights.

To overcome these challenges, Wang draws on a variety of panel data that tracks individuals over time, as well as survey data and self-reported status. For Wang, longitudinal studies are crucial for understanding how health disparities manifest and evolve over time. 

Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey, she combines subjective measures like self-reported health and objective measures such as pulse, BMI, hypertension, and anemia to capture a more complete picture of health mobility. This approach expands beyond previous studies, which typically relied on fewer health indicators and focused on developed countries. Her study includes a broad range of health variables and provides a unique look at the role of gender and socioeconomic factors in shaping health outcomes across generations.

Wang uses two primary methods for measuring intergenerational health mobility: one following the Intergenerational Health Association, which regresses children's health outcomes on those of their parents, and rank-rank regressions, which examine the persistence of health outcomes by analyzing percentile ranks. These techniques, adapted from income mobility research, allow her to assess health persistence and mobility across generations.

Future Directions and Policy Impact

Wang’s time at APARC has been instrumental in shaping and refining her research. "The opportunity to engage with experts from various fields [...] opened my eyes to new ways of thinking about my research," she shared. "The collaborative environment at APARC also made me realize how much I can learn from perspectives outside my immediate area of focus.”

Wang credits Stanford’s vibrant academic environment, with its rich array of seminars and talks, to broadening her understanding of Southeast Asian health systems, a subject she was less familiar with. She expressed gratitude to APARC faculty for their “invaluable guidance for both my research and my life at Stanford.” In particular,  APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston “dedicated a significant amount of time to advising my work, introducing me to key researchers in my field, and sharing the valuable resources that I might benefit from on campus,” Wang said.

Looking ahead, she is excited to continue exploring the role of health in intergenerational mobility, particularly in the Southeast Asian context, and plans to expand her research into the health effects of pollution, an area she has already begun to investigate. Wang also hopes to contribute to policymaking that addresses health inequality. By providing a deeper understanding of how health disparities are perpetuated across generations, she aims to inform policies that could improve health outcomes and reduce inequality in developing countries.

Wang’s research on intergenerational health mobility offers a fresh and much-needed perspective on the crucial yet understudied role of health in social mobility. She hopes her research helps policymakers and scholars address health inequalities that perpetuate socioeconomic disadvantage across generations.

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Economist Huixia Wang, a visiting scholar at APARC, discusses her research into healthcare economics and the reverberating effects of poor healthcare access on health outcomes across generations.

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