This commentary originally appeared in The New York Times.

For a half-century, America has avoided war with China over Taiwan largely through a delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance.

That equilibrium has been upset. China is building up and flexing its military power; hostile rhetoric emanates from both Beijing and Washington. War seems likelier each day.

It’s not too late to restore the kind of balance that helped to keep the peace for decades, but it will require taking steps to ease China’s concerns. This will be difficult because of Chinese intransigence and the overheated atmosphere prevailing in Washington. But it is worth the political risk if it prevents war.

Deterrence came in the form of the implied use of U.S. military force to thwart a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Reassurance was provided by the understanding that the United States would not intrude on decisions regarding Taiwan’s eventual political status.

The United States and its regional allies must continue to create a robust military deterrence. But U.S. leaders and politicians also need to keep in mind the power of reassurance, try to understand China’s deep sensitivities about Taiwan and should recommit — clearly and unequivocally — to the idea that only China and Taiwan can work out their political differences, a stance that remains official U.S. policy.

During the Cold War, Beijing and Washington signed a series of communiqués related to Taiwan. One of them said the United States “reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.” This and other wording was deliberately ambiguous, but it was accepted by all sides as a commitment to avoid rocking the boat. China still views this arrangement as binding.

To be clear, it was China that began rocking the boat first.

Since 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected president of Taiwan (succeeding a more China-friendly administration), Xi Jinping has repeatedly brandished China’s military power with large-scale military exercises and other pressure tactics apparently meant to discourage independence sentiment on Taiwan.

U.S. political figures have rightly responded with rhetorical support for democratic Taiwan, by supplying it with weapons and by strengthening the U.S. military presence in the region. But the American reaction is also pouring fuel on the fire.

I have worked on U.S. defense strategy in various military roles for more than a decade. I recently traveled to Beijing, where I met with Chinese government and military officials, leading academics and experts from Communist Party-affiliated think tanks. During these talks it was clear that Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof that the United States is moving away from past ambiguity and toward supporting Taiwan’s de facto independence.

They have plenty of evidence to point to.

In December 2016, Donald Trump became the first U.S. president or president-elect since the normalization of China-U.S. relations in 1979 to speak directly with a Taiwanese leader, when Ms. Tsai called to congratulate him on his election victory. President Biden has, on four occasions, contradicted the U.S. policy of ambiguity by saying we would support Taiwan militarily if China attacked. The number of U.S. Congress members visiting Taiwan — which China views as overt support for the island’s independence — reached a decade high last year, including an August 2022 trip by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House at the time and the highest-ranking U.S. official travel to Taiwan since the 1990s. That has continued this year: In June a nine-member congressional delegation, the largest in years, arrived in Taipei.

Provocative legislation has not helped. Last year the Taiwan Policy Act, which articulated support for Taiwan’s role in international organizations, was introduced in the Senate, and in July of this year the House passed a similar act. House Republicans introduced a motion in January to recognize Taiwan as an independent country.

Actions like these put great pressure on Mr. Xi, who won’t tolerate going down in history as the Chinese leader to have lost Taiwan. That would be seen in Beijing as an existential threat, potentially fueling separatist sentiment in restive regions like Tibet and Xinjiang.

For now, lingering doubts over Chinese military capabilities and the specter of U.S. and allied retaliation are enough to restrain Mr. Xi. But if he concludes that the United States has broken, once and for all, from its previous position on Taiwan and is bent on thwarting unification, he may feel that he must act militarily. The United States might be able to build the necessary military power in the region to deter a Chinese war of choice. But the level of dominance needed to stop Mr. Xi from launching a war he sees as necessary might be impossible to achieve.

Reassuring China would require Mr. Biden to reiterate that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence or oppose the island’s peaceful unification with China and that, ultimately, Taiwan’s fate is up to Taipei and Beijing. It would mean moving away from attempts to create international space for Taiwan and chastising Beijing when it pulls away Taipei’s diplomatic partners. The White House would also need to use what leverage it has to discourage members of Congress from visiting Taiwan and threaten to veto provocative legislation.

There would doubtless be blowback in Washington and Taipei, and Mr. Xi may already have made up his mind to seize Taiwan, regardless of the U.S. stance. But a politically neutral position on Taiwan is what the United States has followed for decades. Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and George H.W. and George W. Bush advocated peaceful dialogue between Taipei and Beijing to resolve their differences.

There also are longer-term repercussions to consider: If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan, it will set a precedent in which Chinese leaders kill and destroy to achieve their goals. But if a pathway remains for China to eventually convince Taiwan’s people — through inducements or pressure — that it is in their interest to peacefully unify, then that may be a China that we can live with.

In the best-case scenario, the United States and China would reach a high-level agreement, a new communiqué, in which Washington reiterates its longstanding political neutrality and China commits to dialing back its military threats. This would avert war while giving China political space to work toward peaceful unification. That might mean using its clout to isolate Taiwan and eventually convince the island’s people that it should strike a deal with Beijing. But it isn’t Washington’s place to prevent the unification of the two sides — only to ensure that doesn’t happen through military force or coercion.

A war between the United States and China over Taiwan could be the most brutal since World War II. As politically difficult as it may be, U.S. leaders have a duty to try to prevent conflict, and that means speaking more softly but carrying a big stick.

The Stanford/SPICE East Asia Seminars for Teachers in Hawai‘i or “Stanford SEAS Hawai‘i” is a nine-month fellowship program created to empower educators to reinvigorate their teaching of Asia. The program is made possible through the generous support of the Freeman Foundation.

Stanford SEAS Hawai‘i convenes Stanford/Freeman SEAS Hawai‘i Fellows for four virtual seminars during the academic year and a culminating three-day in-person institute the following summer. So far, this year’s Fellows have participated in virtual seminars featuring Stanford-affiliated scholars Ethan Segal (Associate Professor of History and Chairperson of the Japan Council at Michigan State University), Zoë Gioja (PhD candidate in History and a PhD minor in Feminist, Gender, and Sexuality Studies at Stanford University), and Andrew Walder (Denise O’Leary and Kent Thiry Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences at Stanford University). These sessions have focused on Japan, Korea, and China, respectively. The final virtual seminar will take place next month, when Fellows will meet Scot Marciel, former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar and Indonesia, and deepen their understanding of Southeast Asia.

“I’ve really enjoyed learning in this environment alongside all of the SPICE fellows, and [I] find the content very interesting and informative to my work,” commented Fellow Jonathan Chang, who manages a national mentorship program for Asian American youth. “I’ve had several conversations with my family, friends, and colleagues about our learnings and it’s been really great!”

Besides receiving content lectures and engaging in Q&A sessions with the guest speakers, Fellows also debrief their learnings and share favorite teaching resources with each other, so that everyone can benefit from their shared learning and teaching experience.

The current 2022–23 cohort of Stanford/Freeman SEAS Hawai‘i Fellows is comprised of 19 teachers representing three islands (Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Hawai‘i Island). Most teach world history and/or U.S. history, and others teach subjects such as English, math, foreign language, and civics. The SPICE staff is pleased to work with the Hawai‘i educators below. 

Amy Boehning, Mililani High School
Carl Wright, Kapolei High School
Chayanee Brooks, Ka‘u High and Pahala Elementary School
David Brooks, Ka‘u High and Pahala Elementary School 
Grace Nguyen, Konawaena High School  
Gregory Gushiken, Punahou School 
Hannah Lim, ‘Iolani School 
John Ates, Le Jardin Academy 
Jonathan Chang, Apex for Youth 
Jonathon Medeiros, Kauaʻi High School
Laura Viana, Mid-Pacific Institute 
Mariko Shiraishi, Hawaii Baptist Academy 
Michael Hamilton, Leilehua High School 
Molly M. Satta-Ellis, Konawaena High School 
Niti D. Villinger, Hawai‘i Pacific University 
Patricia Tupinio, Leilehua High School 
Ria Lulla, Kawananakoa Middle School 
Sarah Fujioka, Waipahu High School 
William Milks, ‘Iolani School

Fellow Amy Boehning launched Mililani High School’s Asian Studies class eight years ago, offering it for a single period. Now it is offered for four periods and still has a waiting list. Like many others in her cohort, she joined Stanford SEAS Hawai‘i in hopes of adding more depth and richness to her existing practice. “I’m so excited to be a part of [this] program. Everything so far has been stellar, and I have immediately been able to add to my Asian Studies curriculum and Social Studies Directed Studies curriculum.”

Boehning also leads Mililani’s National History Day program, and she has noticed that each year more students choose to focus their projects on Asia-centric topics.

“It’s our goal to support teachers like Amy as they coach and mentor students like that,” said Sabrina Ishimatsu, a coordinator of Stanford SEAS Hawai‘i. “It’s always gratifying to know that our program is making a positive difference for both educators and students.”

Stanford SEAS Hawai‘i is coordinated by Ishimatsu and Rylan Sekiguchi.

In addition to Stanford SEAS Hawai‘i, SPICE offers teacher PD opportunities virtually to teachers nationwide and locally in California to middle school teachers, high school teachers, and community college instructors.

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

We are pleased to share that Professor of Sociology Kiyoteru Tsutsui, the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), is the recipient of the 44th Suntory Prize for Arts and Sciences for his book Human Rights and the State: The Power of Ideas and the Realities of International Politics (Iwanami Shinsho, 2022).

Established in 1979 and presented by the Suntory Foundation, the annual prize honors individuals who have made original, outstanding contributions to research or criticism through publications that adopt a broad perspective on society and culture. The prize is awarded in four categories: Political Science and Economics, Literary and Art Criticism, Life and Society, and History and Civilization. Tsutsui’s book, a winner in the latter category, explores the paradox underlying the global expansion of human rights, examines Japan’s engagement with human rights ideas and instruments, and assesses their impacts on domestic politics around the world.

"The Suntory Foundation is arguably the most influential foundation for scholars in social sciences and humanities in Japan," says Tsutsui, who is also director of APARC’s Japan Program, APARC’s deputy director, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the co-director of the Center for Human Rights and International Justice. "In the United States, there are multiple such foundations (e.g. McArthur, Mellon, Sloan, Guggenheim, and Rockefeller) but in Japan, one is hard pressed to find a competition to Suntory’s resources and history. I’m deeply honored to join the ranks of leading social scientists who have received this award in the past half-century and am inspired to further advance research on global human rights and liberal international order in a world that faces serious authoritarian challenges both in our own societies and globally."

Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive our experts' commentary and analysis.

Tsutsui was also recently honored as the recipient of the 2022 Ishibashi Tanzan Award for his book.

Yuichi Hosoya of Keio University writes in his book review that "this is a must-read book not only for providing an overview of the history of the development of international human rights but also for considering the future direction of the international community and the ideal form of Japanese diplomacy."

In an APARC interview about the book, Tsutsui explains the tension inherent in the diffusion of global human rights, which is rooted in states’ embracing these universal rights although they are grounded in principles that constrain their sovereignty. “The end of the Cold War enabled the United Nations to engage in human rights activities free from Cold War constraints, and now those states that committed to human rights without thinking about the consequences have to face a world in which their violations can become a real liability for them,” he notes.

Tsutsui believes that Japan has an opportunity to become a global leader in human rights. “The more inwardly oriented United States is creating a vacuum in promotion and protection of liberal values, especially with China’s influence surging, and Japan should carry the torch taking the mantle of human rights, democracy, and rule of law,” he argues.

Tsutsui’s research interests lie in political and comparative sociology, social movements, globalization, human rights, and Japanese society. His current projects examine issues including changing conceptions of nationhood and minority rights in national constitutions and in practice, populism and the future of democracy, the global expansion of corporate social responsibility, and Japan’s public diplomacy and perceptions of Japan in the world.

Media Coverage

Tsutsui's book award has been covered in multiple Japanese media outlets:

• The Asahi Shimbun
• The Nikkei
• The Mainichi Shimbun
• The Sankei Shimbun