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Modern Authoritarianism and Geopolitics: Thoughts on a Policy Framework

Once upon a time, there was a seductive story about twin revolutions, a political one in France and an industrial one in Britain, that supposedly ushered in our modern world. This narrative never sat well with empirical realities, yet it lives on in textbooks. What might be a more persuasive framework for a global history of the modern era? What are the implications for research and the teaching of history?

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

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Steve Kotkin
Stephen Kotkin is the John P. Birkelund Professor of History and International Affairs in what used to be called the Woodrow Wilson School and in the History Department of Princeton University, as well as a Senior Fellow (adjunct) at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He directs the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies and co-directs its program in History and the Practice of Diplomacy, which he founded. He also founded Princeton’s Global History Initiative. His scholarship encompasses geopolitics and authoritarian regimes in history and in the present.

Kotkin has published two volumes of a three-volume history of the world as seen from Stalin’s desk: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928 (Penguin, November 2014) and Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941 (Penguin, October 2017). The final installment, Totalitarian Superpower, 1941-1990s, is underway. He writes reviews and essays for Foreign Affairs, the Times Literary Supplement, and The Wall Street Journal, and served as the business book reviewer for The New York Times Sunday Business Section. He is an occasional consultant for governments and some private companies. PhD UC Berkeley (1988).

 

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CDDRL APARC Logos

Kathryn Stoner

Online, via Zoom

Stephen Kotkin John P. Birkelund Professor of History and International Affairs
Lectures
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Hitler, Stalin, and Mao ruled through violence, fear, and ideology. But in recent decades a new breed of media-savvy strongmen has been redesigning authoritarian rule for a more sophisticated, globally connected world.

In place of overt, mass repression, rulers such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Viktor Orbán control their citizens by distorting information and simulating democratic procedures. Like spin doctors in democracies, they spin the news to engineer support. Uncovering this new brand of authoritarianism, Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman explain the rise of such “spin dictators,” describing how they emerge and operate, the new threats they pose, and how democracies should respond.

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Spin Dictators
Spin Dictators traces how leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew and Peru’s Alberto Fujimori pioneered less violent, more covert, and more effective methods of monopolizing power. They cultivated an image of competence, concealed censorship, and used democratic institutions to undermine democracy, all while increasing international engagement for financial and reputational benefits. The book reveals why most of today’s authoritarians are spin dictators—and how they differ from the remaining “fear dictators” such as Kim Jong-un and Bashar al-Assad, as well as from masters of high-tech repression like Xi Jinping.

Offering incisive portraits of today’s authoritarian leaders, Spin Dictators explains some of the great political puzzles of our time—from how dictators can survive in an age of growing modernity to the disturbing convergence and mutual sympathy between dictators and populists like Donald Trump.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

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Daniel Treisman
Daniel Treisman is a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (2021-2). His research focuses on Russian politics and economics as well as comparative political economy, including the analysis of democratization, the politics of authoritarian states, political decentralization, and corruption. A former lead editor of The American Political Science Review, he has been a Guggenheim Fellow and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution (Stanford) and the Institute for Human Sciences (Vienna), as well as receiving fellowships from the German Marshall Fund of the US and the Smith Richardson Foundation. His book, The Return: Russia’s Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev (The Free Press 2011) was one of the Financial Times’ “Best Political Books of 2011”. He is the editor of The New Autocracy: Information, Politics, and Policy in Putin’s Russia (Brookings Institution Press 2018), and co-author of Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century (Princeton University Press 2022).

 

At this time, in-person attendance is limited to Stanford affiliates only. We continue to welcome our greater community to join virtually via Zoom.

Kathryn Stoner

Online, via Zoom

Daniel Treisman UCLA CASBS
Seminars
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VIDEO RECORDINGS

Read the full transcript of President Barack Obama's keynote.

PANEL I

10:00-11:30am

THE TRUST PROBLEM: What is the role of the U.S. government in facilitating consensus and reducing polarization at home?

Renée DiResta is the Research Manager at the Stanford Internet Observatory. She investigates the spread of malign narratives across social networks, and assists policymakers in understanding and responding to the problem.
renee diresta

KEYNOTE | PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA

12:15pm

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President Barack Obama

President Barack Obama will deliver a keynote speech about disinformation and challenges to democracy in the digital information realm. The Obama Foundation is co-hosting the event.

PANEL II

2:00-3:30pm

DESIGNING FOR DEMOCRATIC DISCOURSE: What is the role for media and tech companies to ensure quality, access, and participation?

Marietje Schaake is international policy director at Stanford University Cyber Policy Center and international policy fellow at Stanford’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence.
Marietje Schaake

PANEL III

3:45-5:15pm

THE THREAT OF DIGITAL AUTHORITARIANISM: What are the most effective ways to defend open democratic systems in a global digitized world?

Eileen Donahoe is the Executive Director of the Global Digital Policy Incubator (GDPI) at Stanford University, FSI/Cyber Policy Center. She served as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Council during the Obama administration.
Photo of Eileen Donahoe

The student lottery administered by FSI is now closed. Randomly selected students have been notified via email.

Marietje Schaake
Renee DiResta
Barack Obama
Symposiums
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For spring quarter 2022, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. 

                                                                                           

About the Event: Existing literature posits that the main challenge for nuclear security guarantees lies in making the promise of protection sufficiently credible. If allies do not believe their guarantor will actually come to their aid, they may seek alternate means of protection, including by investing in nuclear infrastructure. Credible security guarantees, on the other hand, are thought to reassure allies. In contrast to this approach, Dr. Sukin argues that credible nuclear guarantees can backfire. These guarantees can cause clients to fear that their guarantors will drag them into a precipitous nuclear conflict. Fears of nuclear escalation by their guarantor can drive clients to distance themselves from their alliance or seek stronger independent nuclear capabilities. Using survey experiments and case studies of U.S. alliances in East Asia and Europe, this project explores the risks of credible U.S. nuclear security guarantees.


About the Speaker: Dr. Lauren Sukin is currently a MacArthur Nuclear Security Fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. In September 2022, she will join the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science as an Assistant Professor of International Relations. Dr. Sukin holds a Ph.D. (2021) and M.A. (2020) from the Department of Political Science at Stanford University. She also holds A.B.s from the Departments of Political Science and Literary Arts at Brown University (2016). Dr. Sukin’s research examines issues of international security, focusing on the role of nuclear weapons in international politics.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. 

Lauren Sukin
Seminars
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For spring quarter 2022, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. 

About the Event: Artificial intelligence (AI) has enormous potential for both positive and negative impact, especially as we move from current-day systems towards more capable systems in the future. However, as a society we lack an understanding of how the developers of this technology, AI researchers, perceive the benefits and risks of their work, both in today's systems and impacts in the future. In this talk, Gates will present results from over 70 interviews with AI researchers, asking questions ranging from "What do you think are the largest benefits and risks of AI?" to "If you could change your colleagues’ perception of AI, what attitudes/beliefs would you want them to have?"


About the Speaker: Dr. Vael Gates is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University. They study perceptions of AI safety, and are currently interviewing technical AI researchers to understand their views about risks from AI. They previously completed their PhD at UC Berkeley, formalizing and testing computational models of social collaboration.

Virtual

Vael Gates
Seminars
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For spring quarter 2022, CISAC will be hosting hybrid events. Many events will offer limited-capacity in-person attendance for Stanford faculty, staff, fellows, visiting scholars, and students in accordance with Stanford’s health and safety guidelines, and be open to the public online via Zoom. All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. 

SEMINAR RECORDING

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. 

Gorakh Pawar
Seminars
image of encina hall at stanford with blue overlay and headshots of Valerie Shen of Third Way and Aman Nair of CIS

Join us on Tuesday, March 15th from 12 PM - 1 PM PT for “Global Perspectives on Crypto-Asset Regulation” featuring Valerie Shen of Third Way, Aman Nair of the Centre for Internet and Society, in conversation with Kelly Born of the Hewlett Foundation. This weekly seminar series is jointly organized by the Cyber Policy Center’s Program on Democracy and the Internet and the Hewlett Foundation’s Cyber Initiative.

About The Seminar: 

Since the launch of Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency, just over 10 years ago, the cryptocurrency market has grown to over $2.4 trillion, tripling in value in the last year alone. In addition to its many purported benefits, cryptocurrency poses challenges to the environment, privacy, financial stability, and more. Cryptocurrencies have played an increasing role in the rise of cybercrimes, including ransomware and money laundering. In light of this the Biden Administration, European Union, Indian government, and countries around the world are actively exploring regulatory options to address these and other concerns. On March 15 join Aman Nair of India’s Centre for Internet and Society and Valerie Shen of Third Way, in conversation with Kelly Born of the Hewlett Foundation, to discuss the use cases and limitations of crypto-assets, compare relevant regulatory regimes from around the world, discuss the debate over the proper legal and regulatory framework for crypto-enabled crime, and explore how to govern crypto-assets while supporting widespread financial stability.

Speakers:

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Valerie Shen
Valerie Shen directs Third Way's National Security Program and Cyber Enforcement Initiative, a nonpartisan dedicated to strengthening governments’ abilities to identify, stop, and bring malicious cyber actors to justice. Third Way’s National Security program focuses on cutting edge policy ideas and to keep our country safe  against foreign adversaries in the ever-changing and developing cyber ecosystem.  Valerie served as the Chief National Security Counsel to the House Oversight and Reform Committee for Chairman Elijah E. Cummings. She oversaw all national security and homeland security matters from cyber operations and federal law enforcement, to counterterrorism, defense, and counterintelligence. Valerie was also an investigative counsel for the Select Committee on Benghazi and the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Valerie was also a post-doctoral fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for National Security focusing on China’s social media and influence operations. Valerie earned her J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center and her bachelor's degree in Politics from Pomona College.

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Aman Nair
Aman Nair is a policy researcher at the Centre for Internet and Society, India (CIS). He leads the financial technologies research agenda at CIS and has been focusing on research on crypto-assets and blockchain technology. He also works on issues of data governance and access to justice. 

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Join the Stanford Internet Observatory, the Greater Washington DC Chapter of the Internet Society, and the Center for Democracy and Technology on April 1 to discuss Content Moderation in an end-to-end encrypted world. Speakers include Riana Pfefferkorn, Research Scholar at the Stanford Internet Observatory, Mallory Knodel, Chief Technology Officer at the Center for Democracy and Technology, and Ryan Polk, Director of Internet Policy at the Internet Society.

In recent years, we have seen law enforcement agencies and policymakers shift the focus of the encryption debate to social media platforms and messaging services’ content moderation policies and practices. While not always explicitly targeting end-to-end encryption (E2EE), proposals to regulate social media companies, including the proposed EARN IT Act bill in the U.S., MeitY’s Intermediary Guidelines in India, and the proposed Online Safety Bill in the U.K. could have serious implications for end-to-end encrypted (E2EE) services.

As this policy debate continues, companies have proposed methods to moderate content on E2EE platforms that raise privacy concerns, such as those that utilize machine learning and client-side scanning. To better inform the debate, researchers at CDT and the Stanford Internet Observatory have produced timely research to assess the impact that various techniques would have on the E2EE systems of online service providers.

This event will feature presentations on critical research in this area, and will highlight global efforts to defend encryption against movements to undermine it. These presentations will be followed by an open discussion on the road ahead for content moderation in an end-to-end encrypted world.

REGISTER

 

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Former Research Scholar, Stanford Internet Observatory
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Riana Pfefferkorn was a Research Scholar at the Stanford Internet Observatory. She investigated the U.S. and other governments' policies and practices for forcing decryption and/or influencing the security design of online platforms and services, devices, and products, both via technical means and through the courts and legislatures. Riana also studies novel forms of electronic surveillance and data access by U.S. law enforcement and their impact on civil liberties. 

Previously, Riana was the Associate Director of Surveillance and Cybersecurity at the Stanford Center for Internet and Society, where she remains an affiliate. Prior to joining Stanford, she was an associate in the Internet Strategy & Litigation group at the law firm of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, and a law clerk to the Honorable Bruce J. McGiverin of the U.S. District Court for the District of Puerto Rico. During law school, she interned for the Honorable Stephen Reinhardt of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.

Riana has spoken at various legal and security conferences, including Black Hat and DEF CON's Crypto & Privacy Village. She is frequently quoted in the press, including the New York Times, the Washington Post, and NPR. Riana is a graduate of the University of Washington School of Law and Whitman College.

Complete list of publications and recent blog posts here.

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Riana Pfefferkorn Research Scholar Stanford Internet Observatory
Mallory Knodel Chief Technology Officer Center for Democracy and Technology
Ryan Polk Director of Internet Policy The Internet Society
Panel Discussions
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Amy Zegart
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like a horrific Cold War throwback. Once again, a strongman rules in Moscow, Russian tanks are rolling across borders, and a democratic nation is fighting for its survival, street by street, day by day, armed with little more than Molotov cocktails and a fierce belief in freedom. For all the talk of emerging technologies and new threats, the violence in Ukraine feels raw and low-tech, and the world suddenly looks old again.

And yet, amid all these echoes of the past, Russia’s invasion has ushered in one development that is altogether new and could dramatically change geopolitics in the future: the real-time public disclosure of highly classified intelligence.

Read the rest at The Atlantic

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Never before has the United States government revealed so much, in such granular detail, so fast and so relentlessly about an adversary, Amy Zegart writes. What are the implications of this new strategy?

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Leopoldo López expressed fear about the global rise of a “network of autocracies." He encouraged Stanford students to champion democracy and freedom across the globe.

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