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Mofeed Digest (May 2022)

The following digest summarizes the most important scholarly and policy publications, reports, and articles covering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the politics, economies, and societies of the Arab world. Mofeed Digest is produced by Mofeed Project Coordinator Serage Amatory.

[MENA | Algeria | Bahrain | Egypt| Iraq| Jordan| Kuwait| Lebanon| Morocco| Oman| Palestine| Qatar| Saudi Arabia| Somalia| Sudan| Tunisia| UAE]

 

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MENA

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Population’s Behavior toward COVID-19 Safety Measures: Evidence from Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia
Agence Française de Développement, May 2022
This article captures the public’s behavior toward COVID-19 safety measures in each of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. In all these countries, the article found that women are those who mostly observe the safety measures.

Social Safety Nets and Food Insecurity in MENA in the Time of COVID-19
Agence Française de Développement, May 2022
This article assesses the efficiency of social safety nets in the MENA region in mitigating food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also provides context for the chronic undernourishment of over 50 million people in the region in 2019.

A Billionaire’s World: Labor, Loss, and Inequality in the Middle East and North Africa During COVID
Harvard International Review, 4 May 2022
This article focuses on the MENA region in juxtaposing the global spike of 3.9 trillion USD in billionaires’ wealth during the first year of the pandemic with the parallel loss of 3.7 trillion USD in workers’ assets.

Diverging Levels of COVID-19 Governmental Response Satisfaction Across Middle Eastern Arab Countries: A Multinational Study
BMC Public Health, 5 May 2022
This article evaluates and compares public opinion on the governmental measures to control the spread of COVID-19 of high, low and middle-income countries in the Middle East. When benchmarked with international levels of satisfaction, GCC countries scored highly whereas Lebanon scored poorly. 

Tracking COVID-19 Urban Activity Changes in the Middle East from Nighttime Lights
Scientific Reports, 16 May 2022
This article utilizes nighttime lights data from NASA from 584 urban areas to track the implementation and adherence to curfew and lockdown measures in 17 MENA countries during the first four months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Algeria

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The Geometrization of the COVID-19 Care Offer for the ORSEC Plan in Algeria
Algerian Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Date Unspecified 
This article utilizes several scientific tools to examine the readiness of different Algerian provinces to face the COVID-19 pandemic.

Intention to Get COVID-19 Vaccination and Its Associated Predictors: A Cross-Sectional Study Among the General Public in Algeria
Science Direct, 13 May 2022 
This article presents the results of an online survey conducted to assess the intentions to receive the Covid-19 vaccine among the Algerian population. Out of a total of 656 participants, 51.1% were in favor of COVID-19 vaccines while 18.5% and 30.5% were against or hesitant respectively.

Side Effects of COVID-19 Inactivated Virus vs. Adenoviral Vector Vaccines: Experience of Algerian Healthcare Workers
Frontiers in Public Health, 16 May 2022
This article evaluates side effects of COVID-19 vaccines in a sample of 721 Algerian healthcare workers. Most common self-reported side effects were injection site pain, arm pain, fatigue, fever, headache and myalgia. 

Food Behavior of the Algerian Population at the Time of the COVID-19: The First Survey Carried Out in the Western Algerian Region
South Asian Journal, 28 May 2022
This article sheds light on the Algerian population's food habits during the pandemic through an observational and descriptive epidemiological study conducted on 640 individuals.

 

Bahrain

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Comparative Modelling of Stock Price Volatility Before and During the COVID- 19 Pandemic in Bahrain: Implications to the Effect of the Pandemic to Stock Price Autocorrelation
Diamond Scientific Publishing, Date Unspecified  
This article studies the volatility of stock prices before and during the pandemic in Bahrain. It found that the weekly price movements of the BAX index were more volatile during the pandemic than before its onset.

The Effect of Age, Gender and Comorbidities Upon SARS-CoV-2 Spike Antibody Induction After Two Doses of Sinopharm Vaccine and the Effect of a Pfizer/BioNtech Booster Vaccine
Frontiers in Immunology, 30 May 2022
This article reports the findings of a study that evaluated antibody levels in 379 Bahraini individuals to assess the effect of a COVID-19 booster dose. The authors hoped that their study would help develop a triple dose vaccination strategy to ensure protective immunity against COVID-19.

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Egypt

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Impact of COVID-19 on Cardiothoracic Surgery: Experience of Alexandria (Egypt) Main University Hospital
Brazilian Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery, 23 May 2022
This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the workflow and waiting lists of high-cost Cardiothoracic surgeries in Egypt. It found that cardiac surgeries have witnessed the worst consequences, including cancellation of all surgeries, expansion of waiting lists, and patients' non-compliance with follow-up.

 

Iraq

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Trends in COVID-19: Incidence, mortality, and case fatality in Iraq
Saudi Medical Journal, May 2022
This article reports the findings of a biometric study conducted in 2021 to help detect the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Iraq, the distribution of cases according to age, gender, and geographic distribution. The authors also examined morbidity and mortality rates to evaluate the intensity of the COVID-19 burden on the Iraqi healthcare system.

Jordan

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The Impact of COVID-19 on the Jordanian Households and Firms: Findings from the ERF Covid-19 Monitor in Jordan 
Economic Research Forum, May 2022
ERF and FCDO collaborated to conduct short panel phone surveys aiming to assess how Jordanian households, firms, micro firms, and workers cope with the impact of COVID-19.

Attitude of Pregnant and Lactating Women toward COVID-19 Vaccination in Jordan: a Cross-Sectional Study
Journal of Perinatal Medicine, 3 May 2022
This article reports the findings of a study conducted with pregnant and lactating women in Jordan to determine their stances towards the COVID-19 vaccine and understand their varying attitudes. 

COVID-19 Epidemiology and Changes in Health Service Utilization in Azraq and Zaatari Refugee Camps in Jordan: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Plos Medicine, 10 May 2022
This article utilized observational programmatic data to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Jordan, and at two refugee camps Zaatari and Azraq specifically. The authors analyzed the difference in routine health services pre and post COVID-19. 

Conception Preferences during COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdowns
Behavioral Sciences, 13 May 2022
This article focused on women in Jordan to study their insights regarding fertility, the preparedness to use assisted reproductive technology, and the awareness and beliefs related to conceiving during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Kuwait

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School Is Closed : Simulating the Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic–Related School Disruptions in Kuwait
World Bank, 5 May 2022
This working paper tackles the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent educational disruptions on students in Kuwait. It found that during the pandemic, students in Kuwait faced significant reductions in their lifetime income, with males facing a larger reduction than females.

COVID-19 Outcomes Among Rheumatic Disease Patients in Kuwait: Data from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (C19-GRA) Physician Registry
International Journal of Rheumatic Diseases, 11 May 2022
This article assesses the characteristics of inflammatory rheumatic disease (IRD) patients in Kuwait diagnosed with COVID-19 and the factors linked with hospitalization, complications, and mortality.

 

Lebanon

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Lebanon: Challenges and Successes in COVID-19 Pandemic Response
Rand Corporation, 6 May 2022 
This blog-post from The Rand Blog identifies challenges in COVID-19 responses faced by Lebanon amid the current political and economic crises. The authors also highlights the country’s successes and innovations in combating those challenges. 

Too Much to Mask: Determinants of Sustained Adherence to COVID-19 Preventive Measures Among older Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
MedRxiv, 10 May 2022 
This article studies the determinants of adherence of two non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 preventive measures in Lebanon: masking-up and social distance.  The study focused on Syrian refugees in Lebanon aging 50 and older. 

The Impact of COVID-19 and the Economic Crisis on Lebanese Public Health: from Food insecurity to Healthcare Disintegration
Ethics, Medicine and Public Health, 16 May 2022
This article reviews the impact of the economic crisis in Lebanon and the pandemic's effect on health and healthcare. The study looked at measures such as food insecurity, water shortages, hospital and medication crises, labor force issues, and electricity and fuel shortages. 

Development of a Quality Assurance Tool for Intensive Care Units in Lebanon during the COVID-19 Pandemic
International Journal for Quality in Healthcare, 31 May 2022
This article was motivated by the fact that the World Health Organization has supported the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health to increase ICU beds at public hospitals by 300%, without having a readily available tool to monitor the quality of ICU care. Therefore, the authors describe the process of rapidly developing and implementing a tool to monitor the quality of ICU care at public hospitals in Lebanon.

 

 

Morocco 

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Real-world study of the effectiveness of BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm) COVID-19 vaccine in the Kingdom of Morocco
medRxiv, 27 April 2022 
This article discusses the findings of a case control study that was conducted to determine the effectiveness of the Sinopharm vaccine in Morocco. The results were in agreement with the literature showing it was highly protective against serious and critical hospitalization. 

Factors Associated with COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in Morocco: Applying the Health Belief Model
Vaccines, 16 May 2022
This article presents an analysis of a cross-sectional survey completed by 3800 individuals to identify the factors that influenced the population in Morocco to receive the vaccine. Authors show that the strongest predictor for the intention of receiving a vaccine is whether a participant is married.

Role of Instagram on the Purchasing Behavior of Moroccan Consumers during the COVID-19
International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics, 31 May 2022
This article delineates the factors that influenced the purchasing habits of Moroccans during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates the way Instagram specifically shaped these behaviors. It presents the results of a survey taken among 200 Instagram using consumers.

 

 

Oman

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Psychological Effects of, and Compliance with, Self-Isolation among COVID-19 Patients in South Batinah Governorate, Oman: A Cross-Sectional Study
The Egyptian Journal of Neurology, Psychiatry and Neurosurgery, 8 May 2022
This article investigates the extent to which COVID-19 patients complied with self-isolation policies. It also examines the psychological effects of self-isolation on patients in Oman.

The Impact and Challenges of Education and Administration in VET on Economic Growth in Oman During the COVID-19 Period
Frontiers in Psychology, 16 May 2022
This article aims to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth and the impact of institutional management and education on Vocational Education and Training schools in Oman. 

Clinical and Biochemical Characteristics of COVID-19 in a Primary Care Center in the South Batinah Region of Oman
Cureus, 18 May 2022
This article reviews the medical charts of 150 patients at Rustaq Polyclinic in South Oman to identify the clinical and biomedical profile of the coronavirus disease and variations across demographic groups.

 

Palestine

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Seroprevalence of SARS-COV-2 Antibodies Among Vaccinated and Non-Vaccinated Adults in the West Bank: Results of a Repeated Cross-Sectional Study
medRxiv, 16 May 2022
This article discusses the findings of an assessment of the seroprevalence rate among a random sample of Palestinians residing in the West Bank region. The authors reveal a drastic rise in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies due to infection and vaccination.

UNRWA Releases Health Programme Report: Innovation in the Face of Covid-19 – Press Release
United Nations, 24 May 2022
This UNRWA report examines the situation of Palestinian refugees during the COVID-19 pandemic against the backdrop of the hostilities in Gaza, the ongoing war in Syria, and the economic/social/political crisis in Lebanon.

 

Qatar

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Effectiveness of Ehteraz Digital Contact Tracing App versus Conventional Contact Tracing in Managing the Outbreak of COVID-19 in the State of Qatar
BMJ Innovations, 3 May 2022
This article uses two databases to evaluate the accuracy of Ehteraz (the Qatari app for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic) as a tracing tool and compares its effectiveness to that of the traditional human led case investigation. 

Effect of mRNA Vaccine Boosters against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection in Qatar
The New England Journal of Medicine, 12 May 2022
This article conducted two retrospective studies in Qatar to examine the effectiveness of a booster vaccination, compared to the usual two dose vaccination, in preventing SARS-COV-2 infection and serious COVID-19 hospitalization and death.

Flu Vaccine Could Cut COVID Risk
Nature, 12 May 2022
This article reports that influenza vaccines were effective in preventing COVID-19 according to a study held on more than 30,000 healthcare workers in Qatar.

Predictors of Mortality and Morbidity in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients: An Experience from a Low Mortality Country
Health Sciences Report, 17 May 2022
This article studies the clinical characteristics and factors associated with mortality in patients admitted to intensive care units in Qatar. They found that these rates were lower in Qatar compared to other countries. 

The Association between Tobacco Use and COVID-19 in Qatar
Preventive Medicine Reports, 19 May 2022
This article studies the association between tobacco usage and COVID-19 hospitalization cases.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Lockdown “Home Quarantine” on the Physical Activity and Lifestyle of Children in Qatar
Frontiers in Public Health, 25 May 2022  
This article presents the results of a cross-sectional online survey distributed in Qatar to assess the impact of quarantine on physical activity, screen time, sleep, and diet in children aging 5 to 12.

 

Saudi Arabia

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Fractional-Order Coronavirus Models with Vaccination Strategies Impacted on Saudi Arabia's Infections
AIMS Mathematics, Date Unspecified  
This article highlights the role of fractional calculus models in describing the growth of COVID-19 dynamics in Saudi Arabia over the span of 107 days. 

Post-Acute COVID-19 Condition in Saudi Arabia: A National Representative Study
Journal of Infection and Public Health, May 2022
This article presents a retrospective cross-sectional study characterizing the symptoms that appear after SARS-COV-2 infection in Saudi Arabia. The article also determines the relationship of the different “post-symptoms” with COVID-19 severity. 

Clinical Characteristics, Laboratory Findings, Management, and Outcome of Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Children at a Tertiary Care Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: A Retrospective Study
Frontiers in Pediatrics, 3 May 2022
This article investigates the clinical features of COVID-19 infected children, and discusses the therapeutic methods used in their treatment in Saudi Arabia. It analyzes data on children with COVID-19, including demographics, comorbidities, symptoms, imaging and laboratory results, therapies, and clinical outcomes.

Perceived Stress and Resilience Levels during the COVID-19 Pandemic among Critical Care Nurses in Saudi Arabia: A Correlational Cross-Sectional Study
PeerJ, 6 May 2022
This article studies the level of stress of nurses working in critical care units fighting directly against COVID-19. Although COVID-19 cases had declined significantly during the study period in Saudi Arabia, the majority of nurses were still experiencing moderate to high levels of stress about the epidemic, but were, at the same time, moderately resilient.

Prevalence of Anxiety, Depression, and Sleep Disturbances Associated With the COVID-19 Outbreak in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Cureus, 9 May 2022
This article assesses the occurrence of sleep disturbance associated with the spread of COVID-19 among residents in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It also discusses the psychological effects of the outbreak. 

Effect of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Saudi Arabia
Plos Global Public Health, 9 May 2022
This article reports on a study of the relation between non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as masking and lockdowns etc…) and SARS-COV-2 transmission in Saudi Arabia during its first pandemic wave. 

The Psychological Impact of COVID-19 on Residents of Saudi Arabia
Psychology Research and Behavior Management, 13 May 2022
This article studies stress levels and their determinants during the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. The authors report that 35.4% of participants suffered from moderate or severe psychological impact, 19.7% had a mild psychological impact, whereas 44.9% reported minimal psychological impact. 

How Students in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are Coping with COVID-19 Pandemic
Journal of Public Health Research, 16 May 2022
This article sheds light on the coping mechanisms adopted by higher education students in Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results reveal that the 4 most frequent strategies were: seeking social support, acceptance, mental disengagement, and humanitarian engagement. 

Stress Perception among Dental Practitioners in Saudi Arabia during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey
Sigma Vitae, 18 May 2022
This article reports the stress levels among dentists in Saudi Arabia after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Overall dental practitioners are at moderate stress levels; among them, males, private practitioners, and dentists above 50 years of age exhibited more stress, whereas graduates had the least stress scores.

A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account
King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, 30 May 2022
This paper assesses the behavioral shift and trend break in remittance outflows from Saudi Arabia which is ranked among the top 5 countries in remittance worldwide. It contextualizes the change within the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Knowledge Levels of Acceptance and Hesitancy of COVID-19 Vaccine Among General Population of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Medicine and Pharmacology, 31 May 2022
This article examines the knowledge levels of acceptance and hesitancy of receiving the COVID-19 vaccine among the population of Saudi Arabia. 

 

Somalia

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Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perspectives from Somalia’s Businesses
World Bank, 5 May 2022
This World Bank blog-post discusses the COVID-19 related sections of the WB Somalia Economic Update.

 

Sudan

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Women Mental Health Status and Behaviour Change during the COVID-19 in Sudan
Heliyon, May 2022
This article discusses the results of a questionnaire assessing women's roles during the COVID-19 pandemic in Khartoum, Sudan. It also tackles changes in their mental health. 

Face Mask Practice and Technique During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nonrepresentative Cross-Sectional Study in Sudan
Patient Preference and Adherence, 3 May 2022
This article reports the findings of a cross-sectional study conducted among Sudanese aged 18 and older to assess face mask wearing practice during the COVID-19 pandemic among the Sudanese population. 

Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 on Migrants in Eastern Sudan
DTM, 15 May 2022
This report examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on various aspects of migrants’ life in Sudan.

Widespread Cynicism About COVID-19 Vaccines In Sudan
SMEX, 26 May 2022
This article highlights the governmental and non-governmental responses in Sudan to counter vaccine and COVID-19 misinformation online.

 

 

Tunisia

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Phylogenetic and Amino Acid Signature Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2s Lineages Circulating in Tunisia
Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 10 May 2022
This article identifies SARS-COV-2 lineages in Tunisia and explores their genetic characteristics. The researchers captured a total of 335 mutations. 

 

UAE

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Vaccine Side Effects Following COVID-19 Vaccination Among the Residents of the UAE—An Observational Study
Frontiers in Public Health, 6 May 2022
This article aims to investigate the nature, difference, and severity of COVID-19 vaccines’ side effects.

The Psychological Distress and COVID-19 Pandemic during Lockdown: A Cross-Sectional Study from United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Heliyon, 13 May 2022
This article evaluates the psychological impact of COVID-19 related lockdown measures on UAE residents. It concludes that the lockdown more psychologically impacted males, older people, and unemployed individuals during the pandemic.

Investigation of Factors Affecting COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Among Communities of Universities in the United Arab Emirates
Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics, 20 May 2022 
This article investigates the impact of various factors on the acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine in 5 universities across UAE. 

Impact of the Coronavirus Disease Pandemic and Related Vaccination in an Orthopedic Clinic in the United Arab Emirates: An Observational Study
Frontiers in Surgery, 31 May 2021
This article explores the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination on individuals fighting musculoskeletal disorders in the UAE.

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) is pleased to announce that Or Rabinowitz will come to Stanford for the 2022-23 academic year as part of the institute’s new Visiting Fellowship in Israel Studies. Dr. Rabinowitz is currently a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Hebrew University, Jerusalem.

During her time at Stanford as a Visiting Associate Professor, Dr. Rabinowitz will teach a one quarter long undergraduate course on “Israel: National Security and Nuclear Policy.” She will also organize and run an international workshop on “Deterrence and Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East” in the spring or summer quarters of 2023, and engage with Stanford pre- and postdoctoral fellows and FSI faculty.

Dr. Rabinowitz’s appointment will be based at FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.

“Or Rabinowitz is one of Israel’s finest scholars writing about nuclear proliferation, deterrence, and national security policy,” said Scott Sagan, co-director of CISAC.  “Stanford is really fortunate to be able to bring her to campus for a year under this program.”

Dr. Rabinowitz’s current research lies at the intersection of nuclear and intelligence studies, with a focus on Israel’s nuclear program and the role of science and technology in its national security doctrine. Her book, “Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals” was published in April 2014 by Oxford University Press, and she has since published articles in International Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, The International History Review and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, among others.

She holds a PhD degree from the War Studies Department of King’s College London, an MA degree in Security Studies and an LLB degree in Law, both from Tel-Aviv University. She is currently conducting a study on intelligence collaboration between allies in the realm of counter-proliferation operations, funded by the Israel Science Foundation.

“I am honored to be joining Stanford this coming academic year, and to share my knowledge about Israel with Stanford’s undergraduates,” said Dr. Rabinowitz. “CISAC is a global leader when it comes to producing new knowledge and insight about the challenges of nuclear proliferation, and being chosen as an Israel Studies Fellow is a true privilege.”

Dr. Rabinowitz’s many awards and honors include being named an Israeli Chevening Scholar by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and receiving The Scouloudi Award from the Institute of Historical Research, University of London. In 2018 she also won the Professor Ya’acov Barsimantov Best Article Award from the Israeli Association for International Studies.

The Visiting Fellowship in Israel Studies was launched in September 2021 with the generous support of Stanford alumni and donors. The search committee included senior fellows from throughout the institute. In addition to bringing to Dr. Rabinowitz to Stanford, the committee selected Dr. Amichai Magen, a scholar of law, government and international relations, as the inaugural Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies. Dr. Magen will also arrive at Stanford in the 2022-2023 academic year.

Media inquiries about the Visiting Fellowship in Israel Studies can be directed to Ari Chasnoff, FSI’s associate director for communications.

During a period of greater hope for Russia tempered by uncertainties, President Bill Clinton sought both to enlarge NATO and build a strategic partnership between the Alliance and Moscow. As part of his National Security Council staff, we three worked on the approach that produced the 1997 “Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation.” It formalized a NATO-Russia relationship that we thought of as a potential “alliance with the Alliance” and contained security assurances for Moscow.

While the Founding Act produced tangible results in its early years, Europe today faces an aggressive, revanchist Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions have destroyed the basis for cooperation. NATO should suspend the Founding Act and, in particular, renounce its assurance regarding the stationing of conventional forces on the territory of new member states.

Read the rest at The Hill

In 1999 Nina Tannenwald, a political scientist at Brown University, wrote a paper analysing something she had observed among generals, politicians and strategists: the “nuclear taboo”. This was not, she argued, simply a matter of general queasiness or personal moral qualms; it had important consequences. The lack of nuclear wars in the years since America’s destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, she argued, was not simply a matter of deterrence. It had also relied on a growing sense of the innate wrongness of nuclear weapons putting their use beyond the pale.

Read the rest at The Economist

Usually, increasing agricultural productivity depends on adding something, such as fertilizer or water. A new Stanford University-led study reveals that removing one thing in particular – a common air pollutant – could lead to dramatic gains in crop yields. The analysis, published June 1 in Science Advances, uses satellite images to reveal for the first time how nitrogen oxides – gases found in car exhaust and industrial emissions – affect crop productivity. Its findings have important implications for increasing agricultural output and analyzing climate change mitigation costs and benefits around the world.

“Nitrogen oxides are invisible to humans, but new satellites have been able to map them with incredibly high precision. Since we can also measure crop production from space, this opened up the chance to rapidly improve our knowledge of how these gases affect agriculture in different regions,” said study lead author David Lobell, the Gloria and Richard Kushel Director of Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.

A NOx-ious problem

Nitrogen oxides, or NOx, are among the most widely emitted pollutants in the world. These gases can directly damage crop cells and indirectly affect them through their role as precursors to formation of ozone, an airborne toxin known to reduce crop yields, and particulate matter aerosols that can absorb and scatter sunlight away from crops.

While scientists have long had a general understanding of nitrogen oxides’ potential for damage, little is known about their actual impacts on agricultural productivity. Past research has been limited by a lack of overlap between air monitoring stations and agricultural areas, and confounding effects of different pollutants, among other challenges to ground-based analysis.

To avoid these limitations, Lobell and his colleagues combined satellite measures of crop greenness and nitrogen dioxide levels for 2018-2020. Nitrogen dioxide is the primary form of NOx and a good measure of total NOx. Although NOx is invisible to humans, nitrogen dioxide has a distinct interaction with ultraviolet light that has enabled satellite measurements of the gas at a much higher spatial and temporal resolution than for any other air pollutant.

“In addition to being more easily measured than other pollutants, nitrogen dioxide has the nice feature of being a primary pollutant, meaning it is directly emitted rather than formed in the atmosphere,” said study co-author Jennifer Burney, an associate professor of environmental science at the University of California, San Diego. “That means relating emissions to impacts is much more straightforward than for other pollutants.”

Calculating crop impacts

Based on their observations, the researchers estimated that reducing NOx emissions by about half in each region would improve yields by about 25% for winter crops and 15% for summer crops in China, nearly 10% for both winter and summer crops in Western Europe, and roughly 8% for summer crops and 6% for winter crops in India. North and South America generally had the lowest NOx exposures. Overall, the effects seemed most negative in seasons and locations where NOx likely drives ozone formation.

“The actions you would take to reduce NOx, such as vehicle electrification, overlap closely with the types of energy transformations needed to slow climate change and improve local air quality for human health,” said Burney. “The main take-home from this study is that the agricultural benefits of these actions could be really substantial, enough to help ease the challenge of feeding a growing population.”

Previous research by Lobell and Burney estimated reductions in ozone, particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide between 1999 and 2019 contributed to about 20% of the increase in U.S. corn and soybean yield gains during that period – an amount worth about $5 billion per year.

Future analysis could incorporate other satellite observations, including photosynthetic activity measured through solar-induced fluorescence, to better understand nitrogen dioxide’s effects on crops’ varying degrees of sensitivity to the gas throughout the growing season, according to the researchers. Similarly, more detailed examination of other pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and ammonia, as well as meteorological variables, such as drought and heat, could help to explain why nitrogen dioxide affects crops differently across different regions, years, and seasons.

“It’s really exciting how many different things can be measured from satellites now, much of it coming from new European satellites,” said study coauthor Stefania Di Tommaso, a research data analyst at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment. “As the data keep improving, it really drives us to be more ambitious and creative as scientists in the types of questions we ask.”
 

Lobell is also a professor of Earth system science in Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, the William Wrigley Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Burney also holds the Marshall Saunders Chancellor’s Endowed Chair in Global Climate Policy and Research at UC San Diego and is a research affiliate at UC San Diego’s Policy Design and Evaluation Laboratory, a fellow at the Stanford Center on Food Security and the Environment, and head of the Science Policy Fellows Program at UC San Diego.

When David Relman learned in April that he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, he was humbled – and a bit surprised. 

Relman is a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Thomas C. and Joan M. Merigan Professor and a professor of medicine and of microbiology & immunology. AAA&S honors exceptional scholars, leaders, artists, and innovators engaged in advancing the public good. 

When he received notification, Relman went to the organization’s web site to check on the discipline area and specialty with which he was affiliated. 

“I looked at the areas and specialties that pertained to my background and expertise (medical sciences, microbiology and immunology, other aspects of the biological sciences), but I could not find my name,” he said. “I thought that maybe the notification was in error.” Then he looked more closely at AAA&S’s letter, and found that his nominators had proposed the “public affairs and public policy section.” 

Arguably that distinction truly reflects Relman’s wide-ranging and serious policy impact in biosecurity, as well as his groundbreaking career work on the nature of the human indigenous microbiota (microbiome). AAA&S’ section of 220 policy luminaries includes former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich, and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Indeed, Relman’s extensive knowledge in microbiology and immunology has played key roles on several critical U.S. and international policy fronts – most recently, the pandemic. 

 Boundless curiosity 

“When you consider the history of the academy and its origins in 1780 during the American Revolution by John Adams and John Hancock, it’s really quite awe-inspiring. You’re joining those who follow in that history,” said Relman, who received an S.B. (Biology) from MIT, M.D. from Harvard Medical School, and joined the faculty at Stanford in 1994. 

Relman’s scholarship is characterized by boundless curiosity – he asks the deeper questions about the pandemic, about human-microbial relationships – both beneficial and harmful, and what they portend for humanity and the future of life on Earth. With grace and diligence, he’s explored the assembly, diversity, stability, and resilience of human microbial communities, while collaborating with other scholars and policy makers on issues paramount to humanity. 

“When I step back and think about the pandemic, it’s clear that it is about much more than just the virus, but also about the social, political, and environmental factors that contribute to the emergence and impact of such pathogens,” said Relman, currently director of a Biosecurity and Global Health initiative at FSI. 

Why do pandemics and more localized outbreaks arise, and how do they uniquely manifest themselves, he ponders. 

“What are the factors that underlie these events, and can we anticipate them better? We much consider three categories of factors: One, is the microbes themselves – and microbes evolve and find ways to do new things. The second category is the hosts – humans, plants, and animals. And humans are undertaking new activities as individuals and as populations that tend to make us more vulnerable, such as immune suppressing ourselves to treat cancer and autoimmune disorders and crowding ourselves into megacities. The third is environmental, and that relates to climate change, and our changing use of land, such as deforestation, intrusion into previously isolated habitats, and other factors,” Relman said. 

Intrusion into new habitats, making contact with animal hosts such as bats that harbor potential disease-causing microbes and viruses, and then bringing these potential pathogens into a lab where we manipulate and alter these agents can lead to human error and accidents, not without grave consequence. “The choices we make in an effort to understand the world around us all come with risk,” he said. 

As far as the microbes and viruses go, “transmissibility is the key,” Relman said. The COVID pandemic reinforced this view for him. 

“When you see what happens when a virus can travel around the globe so quickly, transmissibility has to be viewed as the critical attribute. Viruses evolve and can outrun anything that we might throw in their way, even when we’re already prepared. So, we have to be agile, quick, and shrewd, and we desperately need a far better public health system across the globe that can respond and implement needed measures much more quickly.” 

It’s not just drugs and vaccines and science when it comes to tackling a pandemic. “It’s the social factors, the political factors, and the willingness of humans to work together, and trust, respect and believing in each other. We’ve learned the hard way that this is a tall order. Sometimes we really don’t work together very well,” he said. 

Long-view perspectives 

Relman quotes Joshua Lederberg, a Nobel Prize-winning geneticist and Stanford professor on this age-old war between humanity and viruses: 

“The future of humanity and microbes likely will unfold as episodes of a suspense thriller that could be titled, ‘Our Wits Versus Their Genes,’” Lederberg wrote in an essay, “Infectious History,” in 2000. 

That perspective inspires Relman, who considers this suspense thriller with open eyes and an open mind – digging deeply into complex scientific challenges while understanding long-view perspectives. 

“If you step back in time and consider the history of this planet,” he said, “realize the Earth is about 4.6 billion years old. The earliest life forms we know of were microscopic organisms (microbes) that left signs of their presence in rocks at least 3.7 billion years ago. They have had literally billions of years to diversify, adapt, and secure niches – including on and in animals.” 

On the other hand, modern humans (homo sapiens) have been around for only 200,000 years. “So, we’ve basically been here for the last 3 or 4 seconds of a 24-hour period that started with the formation of Earth. Compare this to microbial life, which has been here for more than 19 hours of this 24-hour period, and will be continue to persist and evolve on this planet for far longer than humanity,” Relman said. 

Relman contemplates and studies the intricacies of the human-microbe relationship, and delves into the issue of how do “favorable” relationships become established, whose interests do they serve, and how can they be supported or restored? 

“This is fundamental to my laboratory work. And why do those relationships sometimes go off the rails? What causes an unusual turn of events such as pandemics? And in what ways and for what reasons do humans mess with these storylines and relationships with these microbes? Those are the puzzles and mysteries that intrigue me,” he said. 

Health equity is a major concern for Relman. Pandemics and public health crises invariably result in harsher consequences for underserved populations than more privileged ones. Many of these communities lack ready access to vaccines, treatments and safeguards, and suffer more disproportionate economic and social turmoil. This is true regardless of how a pandemic arises, including and especially those that might arise because of irresponsible or deliberately malevolent human activities. 

“Subsequent generations are going to be looking at how we’ve handled this pandemic across society, especially for the underserved,” Relman said. “We need to, and can do, much better on this front.” 

Relman was a long-time volunteer for the Rock Medicine program organized by the Haight Ashbury Free Clinics, a free health care service provider serving more than 34,000 people who need access to quality medical care. He served as the chief medical officer for the program for more than a decade. In the 1990s he was featured on MTV for his work providing free medical care at concerts through the program. “Don’t get me started on the dangers of mosh pits,” he once said. 

Scientific truth-telling 

A pioneer in his field, Relman’s research paper on bacillary angiomatosis and a method for the discovery of new pathogens was selected as “one of the 50 most important publications of the 

past century” by the American Society for Microbiology. In other research, ecological theory and predictions are tested in clinical studies with multiple approaches for characterizing the human microbiome. His work has led to the development of molecular methods for identifying novel microbial pathogens, and the subsequent identification of several historically important microbial disease agents. He was one of the first to characterize microbial diversity in the human body using modern molecular methods. Relman is also the Chief of Infectious Diseases at the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System in Palo Alto, California, and served as science co-director at CISAC from 2013-2017. 

During the pandemic, scientific knowledge has been expressed in many ways – but political polarization in the U.S. has sometimes worked against crafting sound policy. 

Relman said, “All good scientists know what they’re good at. You need to be very mindful about what you know and what you don’t know. While people are pretty quick to say what they know, they’re not terribly quick to admit what they don’t know. This goes to the issue of ‘lanes’ and the roles of scientists in policy formulation.” 

Many scientists, he added, may think that scientific information alone determines the ultimate public policy. “But it’s only a piece of it. Lots of other factors go into policy, such as social, cultural, political, and economic considerations,” he said. 

National security policy 

Relman served as vice-chair of the National Academy of Sciences Committee that reviewed the science performed as part of the FBI investigation of the 2001 “Anthrax Letters.” He’s also been a member of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity, and was president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. He is currently a member of the Intelligence Community Studies Board and the Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, both at the National Academies of Science, as well as the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and the Defense Science Board at the Pentagon. He received an NIH Pioneer Award, an NIH Transformative Research Award, and was elected a member of the National Academy of Medicine in 2011. 

He also chaired and led the work on the National Academies of Science 2020 report on “Havana syndrome,” cases of unexplained health disorders – aka, “anomalous health incidents” – among U.S. government personnel and their families at overseas embassies. Their findings pointed to a “plausible role of directed, pulsed radiofrequency energy,” though “no hypothesis has been proven, and the circumstances remain unclear.” 

Relman said, “I think that we’re going to be facing challenges like this one, that is, complex poorly-explained health problems at the interface of emerging science and national security, more frequently, and that’s what I’ve told our national leadership.” In the report, the scientists wrote, “We as a nation need to address these specific cases as well as the possibility of future cases with a concerted, coordinated, and comprehensive approach.” 

Megan Palmer, the executive director of the Bio Policy & Leadership Initiatives and Relman’s longtime colleague, said, “David is an exceptional scientist, mentor, colleague and friend. He is deeply thoughtful, especially about the role of science and scientists in society, and he is committed to work with integrity for the service of others. He is compelled to tackle the most difficult problems with great care, and he inspires others to follow suit. I am so grateful for his mentorship; he believes in and brings out the best in people.”