How do the successors to authoritarian ruling parties influence subsequent democratic party competition? The existing literature does not distinguish among these parties, nor does it differentiate among the distinct strategies of their adaptation to the collapse of authoritarian rule. As a result, the impact of these parties on democracy has been unclear and difficult to discern. Yet, using a novel data set with observations from postcommunist Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, I find that the exit of authoritarian ruling parties from power and their subsequent reinvention as committed democratic competitors are powerfully associated with robust democratic party competition. Mixed effects regressions and estimates of treatment effects show that authoritarian exit and reinvention promote the success of democratic party competition.
Three themes emerge from this symposium. First, populism is largely shaped by (and is influencing) mainstream party political competition. Second, it has gained opportunities because of the economic policy decisions of governments regarding market reforms and liberal flows of labor and capital. Third, it is shaped by international forces such as the European Union. The symposium calls for further analyses of immigration, the fusion of cultural and economic threats, and what some call the “illiberal international.”
A weasel word is a term used in academic or political discourse whose meaning is so imprecise or badly defined that it impedes the formulation of coherent thought on the subject to which it is applied, or leads to unsubstantiated conclusions. In this symposium we consider several key terms central to the study of postcommunist politics and discuss the extent to which they fall into this category. The terms discussed here include regime terminology, the notion of postcommunism, the geographic entity “Eurasia,” socialism, populism, and neoliberalism. While the authors come to different conclusions about the extent to which these terms are weasel words, they also provide pointers for how to deploy terms in ways that are consistent with the underlying concept and thus aid in the cumulation of knowledge about the region.
Where does the state come from? Two canonical answers have been interstate wars and contracts between rulers and the ruled in the early modern period. New scholarship has pushed back the historical origins of the European state to the Middle Ages, and focused on domestic institutions such as parliaments, universities, the law, inheritance rules, and cities. It has left open questions of the causes of territorial fragmentation, the structural similarities in state administrations, and the policy preoccupations of the state. One answer is a powerful but neglected force in state formation: the medieval Church, which served as a rival for sovereignty, and a template for institutional innovations in court administrations, the law, and the formation of human capital. Church influence further helps to explain why territorial fragmentation in the Middle Ages persisted, why royal courts adopted similar administrative solutions, and why secular states remain concerned with morality and social discipline.
Please join the Cyber Policy Center for Tech & Wellbeing in the Era of Covid-19 with Jeff Hancock from Stanford University, Amy Orben from Emmanuel College, and Erica Pelavin, Co-Founder of My Digital TAT2, in conversation with Kelly Born, Executive Director of the Cyber Policy Center. The session will explore the risks and opportunities technologies pose to users’ wellbeing; what we know about the impact of technology on mental health, particularly for teens; how the current pandemic may change our perceptions of technology; and ways in which teens are using apps, influencers and platforms to stay connected under Covid-19.
Dr. Amy Orben is College Research Fellow at Emmanuel College and the MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit. Her work using large-scale datasets to investigate social media use and teenage mental health has been published in a range of leading scientific journals. The results have put into question many long-held assumptions about the potential risks and benefits of ’screen time'. Alongside her research, Amy campaigns for the use of improved statistical methodology in the behavioural sciences and the adoption of more transparent and open scientific practices, having co-founded the global ReproducibiliTea initiative. Amy also regularly contributes to both media and policy debate, having recently given evidence to the UK Commons Science and Technology Select Committee and various governmental investigations.
Jeff Hancock is founding director of the Stanford Social Media Lab and is a Professor in the Department of Communication at Stanford University. Professor Hancock and his group work on understanding psychological and interpersonal processes in social media. The team specializes in using computational linguistics and experiments to understand how the words we use can reveal psychological and social dynamics, such as deception and trust, emotional dynamics, intimacy and relationships, and social support. Recently Professor Hancock has begun work on understanding the mental models people have about algorithms in social media, as well as working on the ethical issues associated with computational social science.
Erica Pelavin, is an educator, public speaker, and Co-Founder and Director of Teen Engagement at My Digital TAT2. Working from a strength-based perspective, Erica has expertise in bullying prevention, relational aggression, digital safety, social emotional learning, and conflict resolution. Dr. Pelavin has a passion for helping young people develop the skills to become their own advocates and cares deeply about helping school communities foster empathy and respect. In her role at My Digital TAT2, Erica leads all programming for high schoolers including the youth led podcast Media in the Middle, the teen advisory boards and an annual summer internship program. Her work with teens directly impacts and informs the developmental school based curriculum. Erica is also a high school counselor at Eastside College Prep in East Palo Alto, CA.
Since early March, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak has shifted from China to the rest of the world, particularly to the United States and Europe. In an effort to boost its image as a “responsible global leader,” Beijing has shipped medical supplies to countries battling the pandemic—an effort dubbed “mask diplomacy.” However, the impact of mask diplomacy on China’s international reputation has been mixed: a wealth of articles has argued that these efforts may have done more harm than good (see here, here and here). Chinese diplomats and state media have taken to Twitter to defend Beijing and to praise its donations of medical supplies abroad. We have been monitoring these Twitter posts to understand how Beijing attempts to shape the narrative surrounding its role in the coronavirus pandemic.
In this study, we examine Beijing’s narratives about its donations and shipments of masks, personal protective equipment (PPE) and other medical resources. We compiled a dataset of tweets by official Chinese state media outlets that contain the keywords “donation(s),” “donate(s/d),” “PPE,” “equipment” and/or “mask(s).” This dataset includes 3,144 tweets from 11 English-language Chinese media outlets between January 18, 2020, which we identified as the first instance of a COVID-related tweet by these accounts, and May 30, 2020. These Twitter accounts have 42.8 million followers combined, ranging from 7.6 thousand to 13.9 million with a median 1.1 million followers (See endnotes for included outlets). The tweets in our data set average 269 engagements (retweets, replies, and likes).
Key Takeaways:
Overall, Chinese state media highlight China’s outward shipments and downplays shipments China has received from other countries. We observed differences in the framing of these shipments across several analyzed countries, including Italy, Canada, Pakistan and Japan.
In addition, we find that Chinese shipments are framed in the context of Beijing’s foreign policy goals in the recipient country, such as shipments to Canada mentioning Huawei and the (then) ongoing Huawei trial in Canada.
Since late March 2020, global coverage about China’s mask diplomacy has become increasingly negative. Perhaps as a result, Chinese state media coverage of donations has since significantly decreased.
China’s Use of Mask Diplomacy Surged In Mid March and Has Since Decreased
We find that China’s mask diplomacy on Twitter is highly reactive to global developments about COVID-19 as well as foreign coverage about China’s mask diplomacy. Donation-related coverage surged in the latter half of March, when the spread of coronavirus within China slowed but became more serious internationally. Tweet volume has decreased significantly since early April, coinciding with the increased attention that Chinese mask donations have received in mainstream Western media and the associated backlash it has generated in Europe and North America.
From January to February, tweets focused on the shortage of medical masks and equipment within China and domestic efforts to increase mask production. There was significant coverage about how Chinese companies and factories successfully increased daily mask production to meet domestic needs. Chinese state media also sometimes expressed gratitude towards certain countries for donating medical resources to Wuhan and other Chinese cities. However, for the most part, coverage remained China-centric, with only few mentions of other countries by name.
Mentions of Beijing’s outward donations first appeared in tweets by Chinese state media in late February, first about Japan. This coincided with the surge in global coverage about Japan, as guests onboard the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship began to be cleared and released to disembark the ship on February 20. In the last week of February, donations to South Korea received extensive coverage on Chinese state media, similarly coinciding with increased reports about an outbreak surge in the country. In South Korea, after a member of the Shincheonji religious organization was confirmed on February 18 to have contracted the virus, cases doubled in the country in 24 hours. China highlighted its donations to South Korea and especially the city of Daegu, where the Christian sect held multiple gatherings linked to the coronavirus spread.
As outbreaks increased globally but especially in Europe and North America, tweets began to reorient towards focusing on virus updates abroad and Chinese donations to those countries. However, total tweet volume did not surge until the week of March 16, when China began reporting the lack of locally transmitted cases domestically. This surge also followed the incident of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson falsely speculating that the U.S. military had introduced the virus to Wuhan. During this time, donation-related coverage consisted of nearly 40 tweets a day, compared to closer to 20 tweets per day before mid-March.
The combination of a more confrontational tone by Chinese diplomats and the increase in tweets from official Chinese accounts on Twitter, however, drew widespread criticism in mainstream media in the West about China’s “mask diplomacy.” Some reports cited European lawmakers for saying that these efforts are causing China to “lose” Europe while others painted Beijing as strategically using the pandemic to increase geopolitical influence. In addition, China’s Twitter diplomacy also drew criticism domestically among the Chinese academic community, many of whom warned that a confrontational style of “wolf warrior” diplomacy would push countries further away and increase distrust of China’s intentions. Perhaps in response to both global and domestic backlash, donation-related coverage by Chinese state media on Twitter began to decline in early-to-mid April.
Tweets Show High Variation in Messaging and Tone Towards Different Countries
At least one-third of the tweets mention specific countries: the names of 126 countries and territories are mentioned a cumulative 1,100 times (excluding China). While these countries span all regions, coverage about Europe, Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa is more extensive than other regions. Since many countries are mentioned, individual country mentions are low. For example, although Sub-Saharan Africa is the most referenced region, the most frequently mentioned country in the region, Kenya, is named in only 27 tweets.
We observed that there are significantly more tweets about China’s outward donations than about donations it has received. When China does mention countries by name for their donations to China, some countries are mentioned more often than others, and donations are framed differently depending on the source country.
To investigate these differences, we expanded our prior country-name search (e.g. “Italy”) to include adjectives (“Italian”) and capitals (“Rome”), and subset the data by mentions of Italy, Japan, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, Canada, Kenya and Brazil, which are all frequently mentioned within their respective region. Table 1 provides the number of tweets per country.
For each country, we manually coded all tweets for whether they mention a shipment from China, a shipment to China, or neither. We count both donations and exports of medical equipment as “shipments” and aggregate source and recipient to the state level. This means our count captures shipments by individuals, cities, provinces, states, businesses, and non-government organizations in addition to national governments.
When discussing shipments that China received, out of the analyzed countries, Japan is the most frequently mentioned (30 tweets), followed by Pakistan (8 tweets) and Canada and Russia (3 tweets each) (see Figure 2). While China did thank the European Union for its 56 ton donation it received little overall coverage, and Italy itself is only mentioned once as a donor, in a tweet refuting allegations that China had first accepted Italian equipment donations and later forced Italy to buy the equipment back. The Canadian government’s donation of 16 tons’ worth of protective equipment similarly did not receive a mention; all three tweets mentioning shipments from Canada to China focused on donations by Chinese Canadians that were significantly smaller. In contrast, Japanese donations are mentioned as “generous” and “selfless,” and Chinese state media repeatedly highlight China’s “gratitude” towards Japan. The positive narrative surrounding Japan could be attributed to improvements in bilateral relations, a point we return to below.
Image
China’s outward donations, on the other hand, feature prominently in our dataset (see Figure 2). For every country, shipments sent by China are mentioned at least twice as often as the shipments it has received. For example, the lack of discussion about Italy’s donations stands in stark contrast to shipments of “much needed medical supplies” from China to Italy, which receive 76 mentions. While donations to Japan are also mentioned frequently (72 times), the narrative surrounding these differ from those about other countries. State media frequently frame donations to Japan as reciprocating Tokyo’s goodwill, with China’s nationalistic media outlet Global Times boasting that COVID-19 was bringing Japan and China together.
Toyokawa in Japan donated supplies to support China last month, and Wuxi’s Xinwu district returned the favor by sending 50,000 masks to Japan on March 24, after learning that mask inventories in Toyokawa were insufficient during the COVID-19 outbreak. #coronavirus#Covid_19pic.twitter.com/Qnk9V9YC4R— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) March 25, 2020
China’s Mask Diplomacy Reflects its Foreign Policy Goals
In addition, we observed examples that country-specific coverage is framed in accordance with Beijing’s foreign policy goals, suggesting that China’s mask diplomacy on Twitter is strategic. For example, four tweets about Canada reference the controversial Chinese telecommunications company Huawei, which has received criticism in the West for its ties to the Communist Party. These tweets highlight how Huawei had been “quietly” shipping medical equipment to help Canada’s fight against the coronavirus (for example, here and here), illustrating a conscious effort to improve perceptions of Huawei.
One of these tweets directly references the (then) ongoing trial of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, who was detained in 2018 by Canadian authorities in Vancouver at the extradition request of the U.S. for alleged violations of U.S. sanctions against Iran. The arrest and trial has strained Sino-Canadian relations, with Beijing retaliating with its own arrest of Canadian citizens in China. The Chinese ambassador to Canada has called Meng’s case “the biggest issue in [the] bilateral relationship.”
Chinese telecommunications giant #Huawei has been quietly shipping millions of masks and other protective equipment to #Canada to help front-line medical workers to cope with the deadly #coronavirus outbreak in Canada.— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) April 9, 2020
#Huawei Technologies is donating 6 million masks and other medical supplies to Canada amid worsening #COVID19 outbreak there. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said Tuesday that his government's policy towards Huawei won't be swayed by the donations. pic.twitter.com/CIMD608aJQ— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) April 8, 2020
Similarly, the overwhelming expressions of gratitude towards Japan mirror the improvement in Sino-Japanese relations since the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020. Tokyo, for its part, has largely refrained from blaming China for the virus, reflecting an important part of Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s foreign policy that aims to improve relations with China. Gratuitous framing of medical donations from Japan (and also South Korea) illustrates Beijing’s attempt to better relations with its neighbors as Sino-American relations deteriorate.
Serbia’s growing importance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can also be observed in the narratives that state media push on Twitter. Among the tweets that mention President Xi directly in the context of coronavirus-related donations, three of four reference Serbia; the other is an expression of gratitude towards Pakistan. In addition, a noteworthy difference about tweets referencing Serbia is that a number of them frame Chinese donations in a cooperative tone. For example, there is a significant degree of emphasis about how Chinese investment, shipments or donations led to improvements in testing capability as well as the collaborative nature of these efforts. This mirrors China’s attempts in recent years to paint BRI as a collaborative effort that involves foreign companies, after suspicions that BRI projects would result in China exercising significant control over recipient countries.
A new COVID-19 testing lab, parts of which were donated by Chinese companies, opened in the Serbian capital on Monday. The lab is the first of two laboratories to be installed by the Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI) group in Serbia. #CombatCoronavirus#UnityIsStrengthpic.twitter.com/F98xTegmaC— CCTV (@CCTV) April 22, 2020
Conclusion
As COVID-19 spread globally, China has aimed to shake off its portrayal as the source of the coronavirus by painting itself as a responsible and benevolent global leader in times of crisis. However, China’s reliance on high-profile coverage of its medical donations has backfired. Chinese academics have since urged Beijing to tone down language about these activities on Twitter. Despite some lingering mentions of Chinese donations, such as this June 11 mention of a shipment to Lebanon, Beijing’s Twitter mask diplomacy has significantly waned since its peak in March.
Mask diplomacy appears to have achieved some success in certain countries, such as Serbia and Hungary, while in others it has served merely to strengthen suspicions about Beijing’s strategic intentions. In some cases, Beijing has undermined its own efforts by reportedly demanding public praise for its medical supply shipments and donations.
The variation in Beijing’s narratives and its response to the global backlash demonstrates that China’s public diplomacy is nascent and still evolving; Beijing has also shown to be highly sensitive to foreign and domestic reception of its efforts. Whether China will be able to tailor its messages effectively to win the hearts and minds of people around the world remains to be seen.
Part of the Virality Project (China)
The Stanford Internet Observatory's Virality Project is a new global study aimed at understanding disinformation dynamics specific to the COVID-19 crisis. As the pandemic became the primary concern of almost every nation on the planet, the virus significantly shifted the landscape for viral mis- and disinformation.
This post is part of that ongoing project.
As the coronavirus pandemic spread around the world, RT’s English-language branches worked to undermine lockdown measures in Western countries while extolling the Russian and Chinese governments’ success in containing the virus’s spread.
China has been shipping medical supplies to countries battling the coronavirus pandemic, an effort dubbed “mask diplomacy.” It remains to be seen if China will be able to tailor its messages effectively to win hearts and minds of people around the world.
From the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI) blog:
More than 25 governments around the world, including those of the United States and across the European Union, have adopted elaborate national strategies on artificial intelligence — how to spur research; how to target strategic sectors; how to make AI systems reliable and accountable.
Yet a new analysis finds that almost none of these declarations provide more than a polite nod to human rights, even though artificial intelligence has potentially big impacts on privacy, civil liberties, racial discrimination, and equal protection under the law.
That’s a mistake, says Eileen Donahoe, executive director of Stanford’s Global Digital Policy Incubator, which produced the report in conjunction with a leading international digital rights organization called Global Partners Digital.
Join Cyber Policy Center, June 17rd at 10am Pacific Time for Patterns and Potential Solutions to Disinformation Sharing, Under COVID-19 and Beyond, with Josh Tucker, David Lazer and Evelyn Douek.
The session will explore which types of readers are most susceptible to fake news, whether crowdsourced fact-checking by ordinary citizens works and whether it can reduce the prevalence of false news in the information ecosystem. Speakers will also look at patterns of (mis)information sharing regarding COVID-19: Who is sharing what type of information? How has this varied over time? How much misinformation is circulating, and among whom? Finally, we'll explore how social media platforms are responding to COVID disinformation, how that differs from responses to political disinformation, and what we think they could be doing better.
Evelyn Douek is a doctoral candidate and lecturer on law at Harvard Law School, and Affiliate at the Berkman Klein Center For Internet & Society. Her research focuses on online speech governance, and the various private, national and global proposals for regulating content moderation.
David Lazer is a professor of political science and computer and information science and the co-director of the NULab for Texts, Maps, and Networks. Before joining the Northeastern faculty in fall 2009, he was an associate professor of public policy at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and director of its Program on Networked Governance.
Joshua Tucker is Professor of Politics, Director Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, Co-Director NYU Social Media and Political Participation (SMaPP) lab, Affiliated Professor of Russian and Slavic Studies and Affiliated Professor of Data Science.
The event is open to the public, but registration is required.
Landy said there are two directions to go: “One is to plunge yourself deeper into misery and make yourself even more afraid, and the other is, well, not escapism exactly, but the kind of writing that keeps your mind alive, alert and active.”
* Please note all CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone
Livestream: Please click here to join the livestream webinar via Zoom or log-in with webinar ID 913 4480 9317.
About the Event: How do states build lasting international order? Existing explanations of order formation argue that leading states are incentivized to create binding institutions with robust rules and strong enforcement mechanisms. The stability resulting from such institutionalized orders, scholars argue, allows leading states to geopolitically punch above their weight after they have declined in power. I argue, however, that such explanations overlook the trade-off between stability and flexibility, that leading states are faced with. Flexibility calls for short-term agreements that can be renegotiated when the strategic situation changes. And it allows the leading state to take advantage of relative power increases.Whereas states face significant incentives to err on the side of stability if they predict irreversible decline in power, states face incentives to err on the side of flexibility if they predict relative rise in power.
About the Speaker: Mariya Grinberg is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation. She received her Ph.D. in political science from the University of Chicago in 2019. Her primary research examines why states trade with their enemies, investigating the product level and temporal variation in wartime commercial policies of states vis-a-vis enemy belligerents. Her broader research interests include international relations theory focusing on order formation and questions of state sovereignty. Prior to coming to CISAC, she was a predoctoral fellow at the Belfer Center’s International Security Program. She holds an M.A. from the University of Chicago's Committee on International Relations and a B.A. from the University of Southern California.