The Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Program places an unprecedented degree of choice in the hands of older adults despite concerns over their ability to make effective decisions and desire to have extensive choice in this context. While previous research has compared older adults to younger adults along these dimensions, our study, in contrast, examines how likelihood to delay decision making and preferences for choice differ by age among older age cohorts. Our analysis is based on responses of older adults to a simulation of enrollment in Medicare Part D. We examine how age, numeracy, cognitive reflection, and the interaction between age and performance on these instruments are related to the decision to enroll in a Medicare prescription drug plan and preference for choice in this context. We find that numeracy and cognitive reflection are positively associated with enrollment likelihood and that they are more important determinants of enrollment than age. We also find that greater numeracy is associated with a lower willingness to pay for choice. Hence, our findings raise concern that older adults, and, in particular, those with poorer numerical processing skills, may need extra support in enrolling in the program: they are less likely to enroll than those with stronger numerical processing skills, even though they show greater willingness to pay for choice.
BACKGROUND- The majority of current implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) recipients are significantly older than those in the ICD trials. Data on periprocedural complications among the elderly are insufficient. We evaluated the influence of age on perioperative complications among primary prevention ICD recipients in the United States. METHODS AND RESULTS- Using the National Cardiovascular Data's ICD Registry, we identified 150 264 primary prevention patients who received ICDs from January 2006 to December 2008. The primary end point was any adverse event or in-hospital mortality. Secondary end points included major adverse events, minor adverse events, and length of stay. Of 150 264 patients, 61% (n=91 863) were 65 years and older. A higher proportion of patients ≥65 years had diabetes, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, renal disease, and coronary artery disease. Approximately 3.4% of the entire cohort had any complication, including death, after ICD implant. Any adverse event or death occurred in 2.8% of patients under 65 years old; 3.1% of 65- to 69-year-olds; 3.5% of 70- to 74-year-olds; 3.9% of 75- to 79-year-olds, 4.5% of 80- to 84-year-olds; and 4.5% of patients 85 years and older. After adjustment for clinical covariates, multivariate analysis found an increased odds of any adverse event or death among 75- to 79-year-olds (1.14 [95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.25], 80-to 84-year-olds (1.22 [95% confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.36], and patients 85 years and older (1.15 [95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.32], compared with patients under 65 years old. CONCLUSIONS- Older patients had a modestly increased-but acceptably safe-risk of periprocedural complications and in-hospital mortality, driven mostly by increased comorbidity.
This study explored the demographic and diagnostic features of children who were currently receiving antipsychotics compared to children who were receiving other psychotropics in a cohort of children with and without elevated symptoms of mania (ESM). Participants were recruited from 10 child outpatient mental health clinics associated with four universities. Guardians with children between 6-12 years who presented for new clinical evaluations completed the Parent General Behavior Inventory-10 Item Mania Scale (PGBI-10M). All children who scored ≥12 on the PGBI-10M and a select demographically matched comparison group of patients who scored ≤11 were invited to participate. Children were divided into two groups: those receiving at least one antipsychotic medication and those receiving other psychotropic medications. The groups were compared on demographics, diagnoses, psychiatric symptoms, functioning, and past hospitalizations. Of the 707 children enrolled in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study, 443 (63%) were prescribed psychotropic medication at baseline: 157 (35%) were receiving an antipsychotic and 286 (65%) were prescribed other agents. Multivariate results indicated that being prescribed antipsychotics was related to being white, previous hospitalization, having a psychotic or bipolar 1 disorder and the site where the child was receiving services (p<0.001). In this sample, it is relatively common for a child to be prescribed an antipsychotic medication. However, the only diagnoses associated with a greater likelihood of being treated with an antipsychotic were psychotic disorders or unmodified DSM-IV bipolar 1 disorder.
While studies have demonstrated higher medium-term mortality for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), mortality and costs have not been characterized for healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) over a 1-year period.
We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate mortality rates and health system costs for patients with CAP or HCAP during initial hospitalization and for 1 year after hospital discharge. We selected 50 758 patients admitted to the Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system between October 2003 and May 2007. Main outcome measures included hospital, post-discharge, and cumulative mortality rates and cost during initial hospitalization and at 12 months following discharge.
Hospital and 1-year HCAP mortality were nearly twice that of CAP. HCAP was an independent predictor for hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-1.76) and 1-year mortality (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.87-2.11) when controlling for demographics, comorbidities, pneumonia severity, and factors associated with multidrug-resistant infection, including immune suppression, previous antibiotic treatment, and aspiration pneumonia. HCAP patients consistently had higher mortality in each stratum of the Charlson-Deyo-Quan comorbidity index. HCAP patients incurred significantly greater cost during the initial hospital stay and in the following 12 months. Demographics and comorbid conditions, particularly aspiration pneumonia, accounted for 19-33% of this difference.
HCAP represents a distinct category of pneumonia with particularly poor survival up to 1 year after hospital discharge. While comorbidities, pneumonia severity, and risk factors for multidrug-resistant infection may interact to produce even higher mortality compared to CAP, they alone do not explain the observed differences.
This article sketches the outlines of a contemporary inter- and transdisciplinary methodology to understand the current global change. It gives a short overview over the seven-fold approach of the author called “System Action Theory”, which tries to integrate the typological discourses and systemic order patterns of politics, economics, culture, religion, technology and demography. According to the author, the “global systemic shift” is nevertheless not reducable to the sum of these six dimensions, but is “more than the sum of its parts” and thus a seventh dimension which has to be understood through its inbuilt dialectics, conflicts and (productive) contradictions. Because most relevant problems in the globalized world get multidimensional, plurifaceted and ambiguous, no single discipline will be able to achieve a sound, complex-adequate analysis anymore. Instead, an inter- and transdisciplinary stance will always be more necessary.
Asia’s demographic landscape is changing in a big way. Japan’s population is shrinking, as people are living longer, marrying later, and choosing to have fewer or no children. Korea is moving in the same direction, while China and the countries of South and Southeast Asia face similar issues in the coming decades. As this takes place, more people are moving to, from, and across Asia for job, education, and marriage opportunities.
These demographic changes present policymakers with new challenges and questions, including: What are the interrelationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth? How will it impact security? What are the effects on employment policy and other national institutions? How have patterns of migration affected society and culture? What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from one another to improve the policy response to population aging?
The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) focused its third annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue on addressing the possible economic, social, and security implications of Asia’s unprecedented demographic transition. Thirty scholars, government figures, journalists, and other opinion leaders from Stanford, the United States, and countries across the Asia-Pacific region gathered September 8–9, 2011, in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss key issues related to the question of demographic change.
Comparative Demographics and Policy Responses
Japan’s shrinking workforce calls for labor policy changes, stressed presenters during the opening Dialogue session. Stanford Center for Population Research director Shripad Tuljapurkar stated that Japan’s population could decrease by as much as 25 percent and that its government has a window of approximately 40 years in which to act. In describing Japan’s demographic shift, Ogawa Naohiro, director of the Nihon University Population Research Institute, also emphasized the importance of good financial education for individuals as life expectancy increases.
Macroeconomic Implications
Economists Masahiko Aoki and Cai Fang addressed changes to East Asia’s economic landscape. Aoki, an FSI senior fellow, spoke of the transition from agriculture to industry that has occurred at different stages in Japan, Korea, and China and of the increasing cost of human capital that has followed. Cai, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences labor and population expert, stated that after several decades of industrial growth China is now at a turning point in terms of its global competitiveness.
Labor and Migration
Scott Rozelle, codirector of Stanford’s Rural Education Action Program (REAP), opened the next day with a discussion of China’s rural human capital investment. Offering Mexico’s situation after the mid-1990s peso crisis as a comparison, he emphasized the immediate need for allocating more health and education resources to China’s rural areas. Ton-Nu-Thi Ninh, president of Tri Viet University, discussed the socioeconomic and cultural aspects of labor migration—a growing trend in Asia—and advocated that governments factor it more into their foreign policy development.
Security
The security impact of Asia’s demographic transition will take several decades to understand, but it will eventually lead to the need for significant policy re-strategization, stated Yu Myung Hwan, Korea’s former minister of foreign affairs and trade, during the closing Dialogue session. He suggested focusing on impacts that could result from the major changes taking place in fertility, urbanization, and migration. Concurring with many of Yu’s views, Stanford’s Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost also noted the current lack of literature on the link between security and demography. In addition, he emphasized the need for the United States to continue pursuing good relations with China and Russia during this time of transition.
“Low fertility rates are not because women are all out there working. In fact, a number of countries have lots of females in the labor force and have achieved a resurgence of fertility. Achieving work-life balance is important, not just for women, but for men as well, and might play a role in lessening the gap in life expectancy between men and women.”
-Karen Eggleston, Director, Asia Health Policy Program
Throughout the event, Dialogue participants unanimously acknowledged the serious challenges facing policymakers as they look for ways to meet the evolving needs of individuals, families, and organizations. The demographic outlook is not entirely gloomy, however. Numerous participants also pointed to the potential for exciting advances and innovations in technology and international cooperation.
As in previous years, the event concluded with a lively public symposium and reception attended by students from Stanford and local universities, Shorenstein APARC guests and affiliates, and members of the general public. Speaking during the reception, Kadokawa Daisaku, mayor of Kyoto, and Kim Hyong-O, member and former speaker of the Korean National Assembly, acknowledged the significance of the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue as a forum for addressing issues of mutual importance to the United States and Asia.
The Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, FSI, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko. To read the final report from this and previous Dialogues, visit the event series page below.
Japan leads, chased closely by South Korea, with China, on a vastly larger scale, not far behind. Not as mercantilist development states nor as threats to America’s high-tech industry, but rather as the world’s most rapidly aging societies.
A wave of unprecedented demographic change is sweeping across East Asia. The region is at the forefront of a trend towards longer life expectancy and declining birthrates, which, combined, yield a striking rate of aging. Japan already confronts a shrinking population. Korea is graying even more quickly. And although China is projected to grow for another few decades, demographic change races against economic development. Could China become the first country to grow old before growing rich? In Southeast Asia, Singapore also confronts a declining birthrate and an aging society. Increasingly, Asia’s aging countries look to its younger societies, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, as sources of migrant labor and even wives. Those countries in turn face their own demographic challenges, such as how to educate their youth for a globally competitive
economy.
Held September 8–9, 2011 in Kyoto, Japan, the third Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue focused on demographic change in the region and its implications across a wide range of areas, including economies, societies, and security. Asia’s experience offers both lessons and warnings for North America and Europe, which face similar problems. Questions addressed included:
Established in 2007, the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) promotes a comparative understanding of health and health policy in the Asia-Pacific region through research, collaboration with scholars throughout the region, a colloquium series on health and demographic change in the Asia-Pacific, and conferences and publications on comparative
health policy topics.
FSI's second major conference on global underdevelopment brought together worldwide thought leaders to explore the root causes of global underdevelopment and to provide fresh insights on the links between international security and universal access to adequate food, health care and water.
Redefining Security Along the Food/Health Nexus Conference website
Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center
473 Via Ortega, Y2E2, Room 255
Stanford, CA 94305-4020
Jennifer (“Jenna”) Davis is a Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Higgins-Magid Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, both of Stanford University. She also heads the Stanford Program on Water, Health & Development. Professor Davis’ research and teaching is focused at the interface of engineered water supply and sanitation systems and their users, particularly in developing countries. She has conducted field research in more than 20 countries, including most recently Zambia, Bangladesh, and Uganda.
Encina Commons Room 101,
615 Crothers Way,
Stanford, CA 94305-6006
As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.
His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.