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China has a large and growing elderly population, but to be old in China-particularly in the countryside-is to be vulnerable. In the country's rural areas there are few clinics and hospitals, and health insurance is virtually nonexistent. Compared with elderly Chinese living in urban areas, those in rural areas have a shorter life expectancy and a poorer quality of life.

Further, little academic research has focused on the health needs and health status of China's elderly. It is with the goal of addressing this deficit that Pengqian Fang, a trainee with CHP/PCOR's China-U.S. Health and Aging Research Fellowship, recently returned to China from Stanford. Fang is seeking to document the health disparities between China's rural and urban elderly population, and to use his findings to propose healthcare assistance programs for the elderly in rural areas of China.

Fang spent a year at Stanford studying health-services research concepts and methods and developing his research project.

In the project, which Fang refined with guidance from CHP/PCOR faculty, Fang will conduct a detailed survey of the health status, health needs, and healthcare utilization of elderly people in rural and urban areas of China, through in-home interviews in three Chinese provinces with different geographic and socioeconomic characteristics: Guizhou (in southwest China), Hubei (in central China), and Guangdong (in the southeast).

He will conduct the project in collaboration with the health departments of the

three provinces, and with support from Tongji Medical College in Wuhan, where he

is director and associate professor of healthcare management.

Fang's study will be among the first of its kind in China. Such research is needed, Fang explained, because China's elderly population (of whom 70 percent reside in rural areas) is growing steadily, and in the coming years its members will require medical services at increasing rates. According to the country's 2000 census, China has 132 million people over age 65, making up more than 10 percent of the population; the over-80 population, which numbers 10 million people, is increasing by 5.4 percent a year; and about 20 percent of all elderly people in the world live in China.

The elderly in China's rural areas face particular challenges in getting high-quality, affordable healthcare services, Fang explained. There are few clinics and hospitals in rural areas, and there is no government-sponsored health coverage for the elderly (like the United States' Medicare program) anywhere in China. All of these factors put China's rural elderly in a vulnerable position, especially those with disabilities or serious illnesses.

"This research will show the disparities that exist, and it will encourage a dialogue about policies to help rural elderly people in China," Fang said.

Fang plans to conduct his survey in the first half of 2005, analyze the data in the summer and fall, and return to Stanford in November 2005 to present the results. In each of the three provinces studied, the research team will recruit 500 households and will conduct interviews with all individuals age 65 and over who reside there, for an estimated final sample of 2,500 people.

The respondents will be asked for a variety of information, including their income and education, insurance status, health status, daily activities, social activity, mental health, utilization of healthcare services, and accessibility and affordability of medical care. The researchers will also interview community healthcare workers-including physicians, nurses, and administrative staff-to seek information on the health needs of the elderly and the barriers they and their healthcare providers face.

The China-U.S. Health and Aging Research Fellowship, administered jointly by

CHP/PCOR and the China Health Economics Institute (Beijing), aims to improve

healthcare quality and efficiency in China through an exchange program in which

selected Chinese health services researchers come to Stanford to study for six months to a year, and then return to China to conduct an original research project. The fellowship is funded by the National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center.

"I have learned very much from Stanford and this program," Fang said. "The classes I attended have given me very useful ideas." He noted that since health services research is still a young field in China-about ten years old-"we learn a lot from the United States, like how to ask the research question, how to get a grant, how to design a study."

One aspect of Stanford that particularly impressed Fang was its emphasis on interdisciplinary collaboration.

"This is a very good feature-the close relationship between different fields," he said. "In my country we are more focused on one narrow field."

Fang said he is interested in establishing research collaborations between Stanford and Tongji Medical College-an idea that he and CHP/PCOR's leadership will be exploring in the coming months.

There is much to admire about the U.S. healthcare system's emphasis on innovation and technology, Fang said. Still, he said, "I don't hope for China to follow the U.S. health system," with its heavy reliance on free-market principles. For one thing, "medicine here is very costly." He cited a personal example of how he fractured his arm in a minor bicycle accident, and how his emergency room visit for the injury, along with a follow-up physician appointment, cost more than $1,000. "I was surprised it cost so much," he said.

A review of the fellowship program conducted by officials at the China Health Economics Institute last fall concluded that it has been successful and valuable. Leaders at the institute said the trainees' Stanford experience has enhanced their intellectual abilities, their knowledge of research methodology, their leadership capacity, and their ability to collaborate internationally.

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This paper presents a theory where increases in female labor force participation and reductions in the gender wage-gap are generated as part of the same process of demographic transition that leads to reductions in fertility. There have been significant increases in the labor supply of women in the last decades, both in developed and developing countries. Traditional views explain this trend through the effects of reduced fertility and/or increased women's wages. The paper suggests that all these changes can be understood as part of a single process of demographic change, triggered by reductions in mortality. Mortality reductions affect the incentives of individuals to invest in human capital and to have children. Particularly, gains in adult longevity reduce fertility, increase investments in market human capital, increase female labor force participation, and reduce the wage differential between men and women. Child mortality reductions cannot generate this same pattern of changes. The model reconciles the increase in female labor market participation with the timing of age-specific mortality reductions observed during the demographic transition. The paper presents the first model to link the change in the role of women in society to, ultimately, the reductions in mortality that characterize the demographic transition.

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University invites applications to receive funding grants for activities or programs focusing on health care policy in Asia. Shorenstein APARC welcomes research proposals on a wide range of topics from diverse disciplines, but has particular interest in international studies of demography; the effects of an aging population on social, economic, and political systems; and the causes and prevention of epidemics such as AIDS and Avian Influenza in Asian countries.

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Given that many decisions (such as choosing a stock in which to invest) involve high level cognitive processing, performance deficits in older adults may result from cognitive decline, but affective influences might also play a role. A study of performance on a dynamic investment game in younger and older adults reveals that older adults are not impaired on single trial choices, but are less able to explicitly identify optimal assets at the end of a block. However, neither younger nor older adults show a significant tendency toward a higher ratio of risk-seeking or risk-aversion mistakes.

Older adults tend to focus more on positive than on negative experiences and events. Given this tendency, it is important to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the basic processes of selective attention to, and selective avoidance of, emotionally-relevant information while making health-related decisions. This study examined the behavioral and neural responses of older adults during decision-making, and during the resolution of affective and cognitive conflicts.

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This issue of CHP/PCOR's quarterly newsletter covers developments from the spring 2005 quarter. It includes articles about:

  • research on HIV/AIDS in Russia -- presented in May at an international conference -- which shows that in order to contain the country's rapidly expanding HIV/AIDS epidemic, Russia must aggressively treat HIV-positive injection drug users;
  • a CHP/PCOR-hosted discussion session with Edward Sondik, director of the National Center for Health Statistics;
  • an ongoing CHP/PCOR study that examines older adults' preferences about health states in which they would need help with basic tasks like bathing or eating;
  • a panel discussion on "International Responses to Infectious Diseases," led by CHP/PCOR at the Stanford Institute for International Studies' first annual conference, featuring the World Health Organization's chief of infectious diseases;
  • a widely publicized study by CHP/PCOR researchers which found that obese workers are paid less than non-obese workers in similar jobs, but only when they have employer-sponsored health insurance -- a finding suggesting that the wage gap is due to obese workers' higher medical costs, rather than outright prejudice; and
  • an update on the Center on Advancing Decision Making for Aging, including two new seed projects and a lecture given by economics and psychology professor George Loewenstein.
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Background: The current national measure set for the quality of health care underrepresents the spectrum of outpatient care and makes limited use of readily available national ambulatory care survey data.

Methods:We examined 23 outpatient quality indicators in 1992 and again in 2002 to measure overall performance and racial/ethnic disparities in outpatient care in the United States. The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey yielded information about ambulatory services provided in private physician offices and hospital outpatient departments, respectively. Quality indicator performance was defined as the percentage of applicable visits receiving appropriate care.

Results: In 2002, mean performance was 50% or more of applicable visits for 12 quality indicators, 7 of which were in the areas of appropriate antibiotic use and avoiding unnecessary routine screening. The performance of the remaining 11 indicators ranged from 15% to 42%. Overall, changes between 1992 and 2002 were modest, with significant improvements in 6 indicators: treatment of depression (47% vs 83%), statin use for hyperlipidemia (10% vs 37%), inhaled corticosteroid use for asthma in adults (25% vs 42%) and children (11% vs 36%), avoiding routine urinalysis during general medical examinations (63% vs 73%), and avoiding inappropriate medications in the elderly (92% vs 95%). After adjusting for potential confounders, race/ethnicity did not seem to affect quality indicator performance, except for greater angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor use for congestive health failure among blacks and less unnecessary antibiotic use for uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infections among whites.

Conclusions: Measurable quality deficits and modest improvements across time call for greater adherence to evidence-based medicine in US ambulatory settings. Although significant racial disparities have been described in a variety of settings, we observed that similar, although less than optimal, care is being provided on a per-visit basis regardless of patient racial/ethnic background.

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The Conference on the Health, Demographics and Economic Development will take place on May 20-21, 2005 at the Center on Development, Democracy and the Rule of Law, Stanford Institute for International Studies. This conference is organized by Peter Lorentzen and Romain Wacziarg.

The conference is organized around three themes:

1. The Demographic Transition and the Industrial Revolution

2. Health, Fertility, and Human Capital

3. The Effects of Health on Income and Growth: Micro and Macro Evidence.

Participants include: Manuel Amador (Stanford University), Javier Birchenall (UC Santa Barbara), Hoyt Bleakley (UC San Diego), David Bloom (Harvard University), Michele Boldrin (University of Minnesota), David Canning (Harvard University), Shankha Chakraborty (University of Oregon), Matthias Doepke (UCLA), Miriam Golden (UCLA), Larry Jones (University of Minnesota), Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Houston), Pete Klenow (Stanford University), Peter Lorentzen (Stanford University), Aprajit Mahajan (Stanford University), John McMillan (Stanford University), Rodrigo Soares (University of Maryland), Uwe Sunde (IZA Bonn), Michele Tertilt (Stanford University), Romain Wacziarg (Stanford University), and David Weil (Brown University).

TBA

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Associate Professor of Economics, UCLA Anderson School of Management
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MA, PhD

Romain Wacziarg is an associate professor of economics at UCLA's Anderson School of Management. Previously, he was associate professor of economics at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business. An expert on international political economy, he has focused mainly on international trade and its relationship with economic development. Most recently, he has published research on the relationship between openness to trade and economic growth, as well as on the effect of an open world-trade regime on incentives for geographic regions to secede. His other areas of recent focus include a study linking ethnic, religious and linguistic diversity with economic variables; a study evaluating the economic costs and benefits of political borders; and two studies evaluating the relationship between international trade and the rise and fall of industries.

Wacziarg is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a faculty fellow at the Stanford Center for International Development, and he was a national fellow at the Hoover Institution in 2002-2003. He grew up in India and France and has worked as a consultant to the World Bank. He received his undergraduate degree from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, an MA from the University of Paris-Dauphine and a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

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Visiting Scholar, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Associate Professor of Economics, University of San Francisco
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Ph.D.

Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of the Economics Department at the University of San Francisco. His research concerns the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China.  He has written on anti-corruption campaigns, media control, environmental transparency, popular protest, rights consciousness, and the relationship of adult mortality to long-run economic growth, among other topics. Lorentzen's research has been published in outlets including the American Journal of Political Science, the China Quarterly, the Journal of Economic Growth, the Journal of Politics, and World Development. He received his PhD in Economic Analysis and Policy from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and his BA in Asian Studies from Dartmouth College. He also studied at the London School of Economics, Beijing Normal University, National Taiwan University, and on a Fulbright Scholarship at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

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