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Herbert L. Abrams, CISAC member-in-residence and Stanford professor of radiology, emeritus, looks at the issue of a presidential candidate's age and its effect on decision-making.

In the 1996 presidential election, the age of Sen. Robert Dole, who at 73 was the oldest man ever to run for the office, was a substantive issue. Although he was thought to be in good general health, his right kidney had been removed, his remaining left kidney had stones, his electrocardiograms in 1980 and 1981 were abnormal, he had pre-cancerous colonic polyps removed in 1985, and he had undergone a radical prostatectomy for cancer in 1991.

He had smoked for many years and had a family history of heart disease, aneurysm, emphysema and cancer. In 2004, which would have been the last year of a second term if he had won, he had hip replacement surgery followed by a brain hemorrhage.

After the election, Richard Brody, a political scientist at Stanford, and I, in an extensive study of the media coverage at the time (published in 1998 in the Political Science Quarterly,) found that allusions to Dole's age were common, but with only occasional comments on its potential consequences. The impact of aging and ill health on the cognitive capacities essential for an effective presidency was poorly conveyed to the American public.

Hence, more than 60 percent of respondents to surveys were not concerned about Dole's age. Among those for whom age was an important consideration, four times as many voters believed that Dole's age would hamper him as president. That group of the electorate was far more likely to vote for Clinton.

The issue of age is with us once more with Senator John McCain's run for the office. James Reston, the great New York Times journalist of the last century, believed that younger presidents might be more resistant to the stresses of the job. "It is not responsible in this violent age to pick candidates for the presidency from men in their 60s," he wrote.

How would he have reacted to a president who would be 72 at his inauguration and 80 years old in the last year of a second term? The question is a fair one because McCain, if elected, would be the oldest person to be inaugurated in our history. While the Constitution endorsed age discrimination by setting 35 years as the youngest age of a president, it established no upper age limit, perhaps because life expectancy was so much shorter in 1787 than in 2008. When we choose presidents 65 or older, we must grapple with the possibility that they may be unable to fulfill the 208-week-long contractual obligation implicit in their candidacy.

Dominating the illnesses that affect the elderly are heart disease, stroke, cancer, infection, hip fractures, the complications of major surgery and dementia. Heart attacks are frequently accompanied by anxiety, depression, impaired concentration and problems with sleep. Following a stroke, depression, anxiety and emotional lability characterize many patients. A major sequel of surgery is confusion severe enough to impede one's ability to think clearly. The many drugs that the elderly use have significant side effects and may produce cognitive changes.

Dole and McCain supporters may respond, "Why worry about it when the institutional constraints guard us from irrational behavior in the White House?" Because the inherent risks are too great. As Sen. McCain said in a recent interview, "I understand that my age would be a factor at any time."

The term "cognition" refers to the interaction of mental processes that produce human thought. Under its rubric come such faculties as concentration, attention, inventiveness, intuition, memory, foresight, abstract and logical thought. All are applicable to meaningful decision-making, and many are essential when time is short and tensions high. The elderly are more sluggish at processing and retrieving information from short- and long-term memory. There is a 60 percent slowing in the rate of memory search between the ages of 20 and 50 years.

To be sure, both the health problems and the memory changes are unevenly distributed among the population. But why take a chance? Why push the odds and run for the most demanding job in the western hemisphere at an age when illness abounds, memory suffers and energy flags? This is the period when the elderly need their afternoon nap and the absent-minded become more so.

Clearly, some great leaders have functioned well beyond the age of 70. But the presidency is a position that is uniquely and awesomely demanding, extending well beyond thoughtful, meditative policy decisions. It includes many large and pressing operational components, interacting with the White House staff, the cabinet, the Congress, the media, the public, the international community and many elements within the political party system. It is a stressful, power-packed, exhausting job, requiring stamina and energy during long days, weeks and months. It may involve rapid responses to emergencies and crises, with decisions based on a level of accelerated information retrieval and processing that elderly presidents may lack.

Those for whom Dole's age was important and who voted for Clinton in 1996 understood the increased likelihood of illness: in comparison to men aged 45 to 54 years, those aged 75 to 84 years are 34 times more likely to die of stroke, 17 times more likely to die of heart disease, and 12 times more likely to die of malignancy. Nineteen percent of those between 75 and 84 years and almost half over 85 are affected with Alzheimer's disease. While older Americans might have thought that an older person such as Dole would best represent their interests, they were also profoundly aware of their own fragility as they moved along in their seventies.

The media have an obligation to the public. If age affects the quality and duration of a president's performance, as it does, the national interest is best served by making certain that the public is well informed. Thus far, attention to McCain's age has focused on the importance of his choice for vice president. By this time, the media should have demanded and obtained the most recent medical data from McCain.

Dole made public his medical record in detail when he ran. McCain did so in 1999, but has not released the results of a recent comprehensive examination. The voters deserve no less from him, from Clinton, and from Obama. Certainly McCain will want his physicians to inform the voters on the status of his malignant melanomas, diagnosed on four occasions, one more serious than the others.

The Congress also has an obligation. An upper limit on the age of candidates could be achieved by passing a Congressional resolution. This would represent a powerful deterrent to seniors who wish to run and to politicians who would like to nominate them, while leaving the Constitution intact. Madison and Hamilton, who understood the wisdom of a lower limit 200 years ago (when emergency decisions were rarely required) would appreciate the deference to the radically different, complex, interconnected world that we live in today.

An upper limit of 60 to 65 would recognize that the presidency is too demanding - physically, intellectually, psychologically, and emotionally - to place the burden on the shoulders of a senior citizen.

Herbert L. Abrams is a professor at Stanford University School of Medicine and a member-in-residence of the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation. He is the author of "The President Has Been Shot: Disability, Confusion and the 25th Amendment" (1992, WW Norton Inc.) and has written about presidential disability and its impact on decision-making.

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David G. Victor is a professor at Stanford Law School and directs the Freeman Spogli Institute's Program on Energy & Sustainable Development; he is also adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

What to do about Mexico's oil company, Pemex, may seem like a parochial issue of interest only to Mexicans and a few oil industry executives. But the matter should be of concern to anybody who is wondering when oil will come down off its near-record highs.

Pemex generates two fifth's of the Mexican government's income and is a lucrative employer, but it is ailing from neglect. For years the government has milked Pemex of cash without giving it the wherewithal to invest in and develop new sources of oil. When President Felipe Calderon proposed last week to reform Pemex and encourage more private investment in oil exploration and refining, his leftist opponents shut down the country's legislature in protest. Pemex, they claimed, is a cherished national treasure that must not be pushed into private hands.

Mexico is hardly the only country that treats its state oil companies as ATMs for governments, unions, cronies and others who siphon the rich benefits for themselves. A large fraction of the world's oil patch is struggling with the problem that bedevils Calderon: how to make state-owned oil companies (which control about three quarters of the world's oil reserves) more effective at finding and producing oil. Veneuzuela's oil output is flagging. Russia's state-owned gas company, Gazprom, is on the edge of a steep decline in production. And in different ways many of the world's state-owned oil companies are struggling to keep pace with rising demand. Simply privatizing them is politically difficult, and thus most of the world's oil-rich governments are struggling to find ways to make state enterprises perform better.

Even among state oil companies, Pemex's performance is notably poor. Used as a cash cow for the government, Pemex has never been able to keep enough of its profits to invest in exploration and better technology, the lifeblood of the best oil companies. Until a few years ago, Pemex invested essentially nothing in looking for new oil fields. It relied, instead, on the aging Cantarell field, which was discovered in the 1970s not by Pemex but by fisherman who were angry that the seeping oil was fouling their nets and assumed that Pemex was to blame. Pemex brought the massive field online with relatively simple technology. A scheme in the late 1990s extended the life of the field, but that effort has run out of steam. On the back of Cantarell's decline, total output from Pemex is sliding; some even worry that Mexico could become a net importer of oil in the next decade or two. They're probably wrong, but even the idea makes people nervous.

At times over the last few decades (including today) Pemex has been blessed with a dream team of smart managers, but even they have not been able to reverse the tide of red ink. That's because the company's troubles run so deep that even the best management can't fix them. Indeed, the most striking thing about Calderon's proposed reforms is that they don't go nearly far enough to make Pemex a responsive company, even though they are on the outer edge of what's probably politically feasible in Mexico.

For example, Calderon proposes a new system of "citizen bonds" that will help bring capital to the company (and because they would be owned by the public, these bonds would help blunt the legal block to any reform—Mexico's Constitution requires that its hydrocarbons be owned by the people). Money alone, though, won't reverse Pemex's fortunes. Part of the problem is that risk taking, which is essential to success in oil, is strongly discouraged. My colleagues at Stanford, in a study released last week, have shown that a system of tough laws that control procurement make managers wary of projects that could fail. Although such laws are designed to help stamp out corruption, a noble goal, they are administered by parts of the Mexican government that know little about the risky nature of the oil business.

Pemex's ability to control its own investment capital is probably more important to its success than anything else. The firm, though, has been hobbled because the government keeps all profits for use in the federal budget and the finance ministry has the final word on all Pemex investments. Solving that problem would require distancing government from the oil company. Given that the government is dependent on Pemex cash, that is politically risky. In fact, the real foundation for Calderon's reforms announced last week actually happened long ago when he first took office and spearheaded an effort to change Mexico's tax system. Much of the Mexican economy doesn't pay taxes to the government, which explains why its need for cash from Pemex is particularly desperate. Those tax reforms, however, are too modest to make a fundamental difference in the government's dependence on Pemex.

Calderon's reforms seem unlikely to solve the politically hardest task: reigning in the Pemex workers' union, which favors projects that generate jobs and benefits for its members. The union is well-connected to Mexico's left-leaning political parties, which helps explain why those same parties are so wary of "privatization." In fact, Calderon's proposals would not privatize the companies, but the union and the left know that cry will rally the people to prevent change.

Elsewhere in the world a thicket of similar, interlocking problems loom over the oil patch. Kuwait has a procurement system much like Mexico's, with a similarly perverse effect on the incentives for workers in that country's oil company to take risks and perform at world standard. Even in Brazil, whose state oil company is one of the best performing, has a hard time keeping the government at bay when it comes to taxing oil output. Two massive new oil finds over the last six months have kindled discussions in Brazil about raising the tax rate and channeling ever more of the oil output for government purposes. In Venezuela, where Chavez has taken a good oil company and run it into the ground, the burden of public projects is so great that the oil company can no longer focus on actually producing oil efficiently, and production is in decline.

The odds are that Calderon will make some reforms but won't transform Pemex. And that outcome, multiplied through state-owned oil companies around the world, suggests that oil output will increase only sluggishly. With demand still strong, oil prices are set to stay high for some time.

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The first in a series entitled "The Implications of Demographic Change in China," this colloquium features Professor Feldman speaking to us about his research program on demographic issues and statistics concerning the sex ratio in China. His joint research with scholars from Xi’an Jiaotong University is focused on the role of son preference in marriage customs. He will also talk about recent work on rural-urban migrants and how this migration affects the well-being of both the migrants and their elderly parents who remain in the rural areas. Gender is a factor in both migration and the pattern of remittance.

Marcus Feldman is the Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences and director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies at Stanford University. He uses applied mathematics and computer modeling to simulate and analyze the process of evolution. He helped develop the quantitative theory of cultural evolution, which he applies to issues in human behavior, and also the theory of niche construction, which has wide applications in ecology and evolutionary analysis.

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Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences
Director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies
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Marcus Feldman is the Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences and director of the Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies at Stanford University. He uses applied mathematics and computer modeling to simulate and analyze the process of evolution. His specific areas of research include the evolution of complex genetic systems that can undergo both natural selection and recombination, and the evolution of learning as one interface between modern methods in artificial intelligence and models of biological processes, including communication. He also studies the evolution of modern humans using models for the dynamics of molecular polymorphisms, especially DNA variants. He helped develop the quantitative theory of cultural evolution, which he applies to issues in human behavior, and also the theory of niche construction, which has wide applications in ecology and evolutionary analysis. He also has a large research program on demographic issues related to the gender ratio in China.

Feldman is a trustee and member of the science steering committee of the Santa Fe Institute. He is managing editor of Theoretical Population Biology and associate editor of the journals Genetics; Human Genomics; Complexity; the Annals of Human Genetics; and the Annals of Human Biology. He is a former editor of The American Naturalist. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the California Academy of Science. His work received the "Paper of the Year 2003" award in all of biomedical science from The Lancet. He has written more than 335 scientific papers and four books on evolution, ecology, and mathematical biology. He received a BSc in mathematics and statistics from the University of Western Australia, an MSc in mathematics from Monash University (Australia), and a PhD in mathematical biology from Stanford. He has been a member of the Stanford faculty since 1971.

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Marcus W. Feldman Burnet C. and Mildred Finley Wohlford Professor of Biological Sciences Speaker Stanford University
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The demographic billionaires China and India are experiencing rapid population changes and social shifts, fast economic growth, poverty decline, a booming modern business sector, and rising human capital in the labor force age groups.  Because 37% of the entire world population lives in these two countries, the breathtaking transformations in India and China are causing major dislocations in the global economy and big changes in measures of world development.  This colloquium will highlight the most important demographic, social, and economic trends happening in China and India today, will compare and contrast the current situations and future prospects of these two powerhouses, and will focus on implications for Asia and the world today and in the coming decade.

Dr. Judith Banister is the director of Global Demographics for The Conference Board, the world’s premier business research and business membership organization, with offices in New York, Brussels, Beijing, Hong Kong, and New Delhi.  She is an expert on the demography of China and received her Ph.D. in demography and development from Stanford.

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Judith Banister Director of Global Demographics Speaker The Conference Board
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The world’s energy infrastructure stands on the brink of a major revolution. Much of the large power generation infrastructure in the industrialized world will need replacement over the next two to three decades while in the developing world, including China and India, it will be installed for the first time. Concurrently, the risks of climate change and unprecedented high prices for oil and natural gas are transforming the economic and ethical incentives for alternative energy sources leading to growth of nuclear and renewables, including solar, wind, biofuels and geothermal technologies. The transition from today’s energy systems, based on fossil fuels, to a future decarbonized or carbon-neutral infrastructure is a socio-technical problem of global dimensions, but one for which there is no accepted solution, either at the international, national, or regional levels.

This talk describes a novel methodology to understand global energy systems and their evolution. We are incorporating state-of-the-art open tools in information science and technology (Google, Google Earth, Wikis, Content Management Systems, etc.) to create a global real time observatory for energy infrastructure, generation, and consumption. The observatory will establish and update geographical and temporally referenced records and analyses of the historical, current, and evolving global energy systems, the energy end-use of individuals, and their associated environmental impacts. Changes over time in energy production, use, and infrastructure will be identified and correlated to drivers, such as demographics, economic policies, incentives, taxes, and costs of energy production by various technologies. As time permits Dr. Gupta will show, using Google Earth, existing data on power generation infrastructure in three countries (South Africa, India and the USA) and highlight examples of unanticipated crisis (South Africa), environment (USA) and exponential growth (India). Finally Dr. Gupta will comment on how/why trust and transparency created by democratization of information that such a system would provide could motivate cooperation, provide a framework for compliance and monitoring of global treaties, and precipitate action towards carbon-neutral systems.

Rajan Gupta is the leader of the Elementary Particles and Field Theory group at Los Alamos National Laboratory and a Laboratory fellow.  He came to the USA in 1975 after obtaining his Masters in Physics from Delhi University, India, and earned his PhD in Theoretical Physics from The California Institute of Technology in 1982. The main thrust of his research is to understand the fundamental theories of elementary particle interactions, in particular the interactions of quarks and gluons and the properties hadrons composed of them. In addition, he uses modeling and simulations to study Biological and Statistical Mechanics systems, and to push the envelope of High Performance Computing. Starting in 1998 his interests broadened into the areas of health, education, development and energy security. He is currently carrying out an integrated systems analysis of global energy systems. In 2000 Dr. Gupta started the forum “International Security in the new Millennium” at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Its goals are to understand global issues dealing with societal and security challenges.

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Rajan Gupta Group Leader, Elementary Particles and Field Theory Speaker Los Alamos National Laboratory
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