Violence
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Abstract

After five years of political support for the regime of Bashar Al-Asad in its war against the opposition, Russia intervened militarily on his behalf in September 2015 and suddenly later this year Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of the Russian troops from Syria. While Moscow claims that its intervention was aimed at destroying ISIS and other terrorists groups, but the vast majority of its air strikes seem to target the moderate armed opposition, which has fought ISIS on the ground. This presentation assesses the outcome of Russia’s intervention, arguing that it neither achieved its goal of destroying ISIS nor did it tip the balance favor of Asad. Instead, the intervention had resulted in the killing of Syrian civilians, complicated the conflict in Syria, and constrained the prospects for a political solution by empowering Asad on the ground.

Speaker Bio

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Radwan Ziadeh is a senior analyst at the Arab Center in Washington D.C. He is the founder and director of the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies in Syria and co-founder and executive director of the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C. He is a Visiting Scholar at the Center for the Study of Human Rights at Columbia University, and Fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) in Washington D.C. Ziadeh was the managing editor of the Transitional Justice Project in the Arab World, and the Head of the Syrian Commission for Transitional Justice, which was established on November 14, 2013 by the Syrian Interim Government. He was also involved in the Syrian political opposition. He was elected in October 2011 as director of the Foreign Relations Office of the Syrian National Council until he resigned from the position in November 2012. He wrote more than twenty books in English and Arabic. His most recent book is Syria's Role in a Changing Middle East: The Syrian-Israeli Peace Talks (I.B.Tauris, 2016). Ziadeh holds a D.D.S in Dentistry from Damascus University, Diploma in international Human Rights Law from College of Law at the American University in Washington D.C, an MA in Democracy and Governance from Georgetown University in Washington D.C, and an MS in Finance from Kogod School of Business at the American University in Washington D.C.


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CISAC Central Conference Room
Encina Hall, 2nd Floor
616 Serra St
​Stanford, CA 94305

Radwan Ziadeh Arab Center, Washington, DC
Seminars
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Abstract

After nearly five years since the start of the uprising, Syria finds itself divided and embattled, with no end in sight. More significantly, more than half of the Syrian population is displaced and the death toll surpassed 300,000 by all counts. The Syrian tragedy persists and, more than any other case of mass uprising in the region, continues to be shrouded in political power-plays and contradictions at the local, regional, and international levels. Defined increasingly by an absence of a clear favorable outcome, considering existing parties to the conflict, the logic of the lesser evil reigns supreme. This lecture is an attempt to understand the roots and dynamics of the tragic Syrian uprising, with particular attention to its background and to the recent Russian intervention.

Speaker Bio

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Bassam Haddad is Director of the Middle East Studies Program and Associate Professor in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, and is Visiting Professor at Georgetown University. He is the author of Business Networks in Syria: The Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience (Stanford University Press, 2011). Haddad is currently editing a volume on Teaching the Middle East After the Arab Uprisings, a book manuscript on pedagogical and theoretical approaches. His most recent books include two co-edited volumes: Dawn of the Arab Uprisings: End of an Old Order? (Pluto Press, 2012) and Mediating the Arab Uprisings (Tadween Publishing, 2013). Haddad serves as Founding Editor of the Arab Studies Journal a peer-reviewed research publication and is co-producer/director of the award-winning documentary film, About Baghdad, and director of the critically acclaimed film series, Arabs and Terrorism, based on extensive field research/interviews. More recently, he directed a film on Arab/Muslim immigrants in Europe, titled The "Other" Threat. Haddad is Co-Founder/Editor of Jadaliyya Ezine and serves on the Editorial Committee of Middle East Report. He is the Executive Director of the Arab Studies Institute, an umbrella for five organizations dealing with knowledge production on the Middle East and Founding Editor of Tadween Publishing.

 

This event is co-sponsored by The Markaz: Resource Center at Stanford University.


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CISAC Central Conference Room
Encina Hall, 2nd Floor
616 Serra St
Stanford, CA 94305

Bassam Haddad Associate Professor George Mason University
Seminars
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Abstract: In fragile states, regimes must cultivate military forces strong enough to ward off external threats, but loyal enough to resist launching a coup. This requires that leader distinguish the loyal from the untrustworthy, a particularly challenging exercise in post-conflict settings with weak institutions. In this study, I explore how Congolese soldiers operating in North Kivu, the largest operational theater in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the epicenter of one of the most violent conflicts in Africa, solve this crucial task. I argue that leaders use non-payment as a form of trial and tribulation that reveals commitment by driving non-loyal soldiers to defect and loyal soldiers to weather challenging times. Non-payments creates a dual-pronged screening process because unpaid soldiers engage in unit-managed extortion and violence against civilians, which is used to both test and generate loyalty. To detail and assess this argument, I couple thick description based on 100 open-ended qualitative interviews with a fine-grained quantitative analysis of 350 members of the armed forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo. This analysis provides a novel explanation for how leaders overcome classic screening dilemmas in ways that ultimately drives violence against civilians. 

 
About the Speaker: Grant Gordon is a PhD Candidate in international relations and comparative politics at Columbia University. His research examines the political economy of conflict, humanitarian intervention and institutions, and combines field experiments, original survey data, ethnography and unique administrative data.

His dissertation seeks to understand the logic of state violence during conflict. In a complementary set of empirical papers, he analyzes why simple strategies used to solve principal agent problems in states afflicted by war cause civilian abuse.

His work has been supported by the United States Institute for Peace, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, and Texas A&M Center for Conflict and Development, among others. Grant is a 2015-2016 Mellon/ACLS Dissertation Completion Fellow and Resident Fellow at the Stanford Center on International Conflict and Negotiation.

 

Grant Gordon Resident Fellow Stanford Center on International Conflict and Negotiation
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This month Stanford researchers are in one of the largest slums – or favelas – in Latin America to launch the first-of-its kind comprehensive study on the use of body-worn cameras by the military police in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Over 350 police officers will start wearing cameras clipped to their uniforms during their patrols to record interactions with residents. The yearlong Stanford study aims to determine the effects of this technology on reducing lethal violence, as well as other forms of violent interactions with community members.
 
Led by Beatriz Magaloni, associate professor of political science and director of the Program on Poverty and Governance (PovGov) at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, this study comes at a significant moment when police brutality is tearing apart the social fabric in communities worldwide, and body-worn cameras are being tested as a way to curb the excessive use of force by law enforcement officials. A study of this nature has never been conducted in a location characterized by extraordinary levels of violence, and the strong presence of armed criminal groups.
 
“Police-body worn cameras have been adopted in many police departments in the U.S.,” said Magaloni who is also a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “However, it is not clear how this technology will work in Rio de Janeiro’s context. Even when police officers are instructed to turn on their cameras, we do not know if they will obey. “
 
To evaluate the use of body-worn cameras, Magaloni established a partnership with TASER International, who is supplying 75 cameras for the study, along with the Military State Police of Rio de Janeiro to introduce this technology in the Rocinha favela. Cameras will be assigned randomly in this study to vary the frequency (number of cameras) and the intensity (hours) of the use of the cameras across territorial police units in the favela.
 
Magaloni described the two protocols for the use of body-worn cameras that will be explored in the study.
 
“The first will examine police compliance with the cameras, as some officers will be asked to turn on their cameras during their entire shifts, which is significantly harder to disregard, while others will only turn on their cameras when interacting with citizens, the prevalent practice in the U.S.,” she said.
 
“Second, the research hopes to contribute towards the development of protocols for the processing of the images, which is a huge challenge for police departments everywhere,” said Magaloni. “It will also help to determine which videos should be audited and what strategies commanders and supervisors can follow to deliver feedback to police officers.”
 
Rio de Janeiro’s police are considered one of the deadliest in the world. And while this violence has been decreasing since 2008, distrust between the police and favela residents is at a high after the recent police killing of five unarmed young men in Costa Barros, in Rio’s North zone. At the same time, police are being killed at significantly higher rates, which has only further strained their interactions with residents.
 
Over the past two years, Professor Magaloni and her team at PovGov have been working in partnership with the Military State Police of Rio de Janeiro and the Secretary of Security of Rio de Janeiro to examine the use of lethal force by police officers and the impact of public security efforts in Rio’s favelas. This ongoing relationship has allowed Professor Magaloni unprecedented access to criminal data and police personnel. Detailed analysis of homicide patterns and ammunition usage by police officers, together with the application of surveys and in-depth interviews with police officers and favela residents, have unearthed some of the contextual, individual, and institutional factors that give rise to greater use of deadly force by the police.
 
As the camera study launches this month in Rio de Janeiro, Magaloni and the PovGov team are hopeful that their research will improve theory and science about police behavior, and provide critical feedback to improve measures aimed at reducing police violence in Brazil and beyond.  
 



To learn more about the Program on Poverty and Governance, please visit: povgov.stanford.edu.
 

CONTACT:
Professor Beatriz Magaloni
Stanford Department of Political Science and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
magaloni@stanford.edu
(650) 724-5949

 

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Stanford researchers seek better strategies to control the lethal use of police force in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Their findings offer implications for police and communities elsewhere, as the researchers are studying how social and psychological factors affect police and how body-worn cameras can be used most efficiently.


In striving to understand and to curb the use of lethal force by police in Rio de Janeiro's poorest neighborhoods, Stanford researchers seek to help inform the widespread debate about police conduct and behavior.

Beatriz Magaloni, an associate professor of political science at Stanford, is leading an international research effort to understand why Brazil's Rio de Janeiro has one of the world's highest police-on-civilian fatality rates. Her research shows that between 2005 and 2013 there were 4,707 police killings and 17,392 homicides for a total of 22,099 violent deaths in Rio, Brazil's most populous city.

"In many developing countries, the police institution is exceedingly dysfunctional," said Magaloni, a senior fellow at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

"Either cops are corrupt and work in partnership with organized crime, are poorly staffed and trained, or they abuse their power, including using torture and excessive lethal force," she said.

Magaloni points out that violence is an obstacle to progress, peace and prosperity in developing nations like Brazil. But police-involved deaths are not limited to developing nations. She cited recent minority deaths at the hands of police in U.S. cities, including Chicago; Ferguson, Missouri; and New York City, as an indication that police everywhere sometimes act too aggressively. And so, strategies that can be used anywhere – like body-worn cameras on police – are part of her study.

Understanding police behavior

In 2013, Magaloni created the Stanford International Crime and Violence Lab, which designs research-based strategies to control violence, a central challenge for poverty alleviation in areas like Rio de Janeiro. Support for the research came from Stanford's Global Development and Poverty Research initiative.

The Rio research has emerged from that effort. For their project, Magaloni and her team have partnered with the Minister of Security and the Military Police of Rio de Janeiro, and nongovernmental organizations working in the city's slums. So far, this involved more than 100 interviews and focus groups with police officers and citizens. The researchers also conducted a survey of 5,000 officers, or 20 percent, of the Rio de Janeiro police force.

"The goal is to advance knowledge about police behavior and violent crime, as well as provide feedback to policymakers in Rio de Janeiro to design better strategies to control police violence and homicides," Magaloni said.

Most victims of police violence have been young black men living in the slums, the researchers found. Also, police killing rates were five times higher in the poorest parts of Rio than in the wealthiest areas.

Community bonds critical

The researchers found that one promising reform already enacted by the government is "proximity" policing. This involves assigning newly graduated police officers trained to not reflexively engage in shootouts to the poorest areas of Rio. Also called "Pacifying Police Units," this initiative significantly reduced police killings of civilians in the areas studied.

"Police killings in the favelas [slums] would have been 60 percent higher without the Pacifying Police Units, which means that the reduction in police killing can largely be attributed to the proximity policing strategy," Magaloni said.

Another problem is police deaths while on duty, which have doubled since 2011. She attributed the increase to poor relationships between police and their communities.

"Police officers often treat citizens with disrespect, and racial stigmatization is common. Hence, favelaresidents do not trust police officers and seldom offer cooperation, including giving information to the police about suspects and violent criminals in the community," Magaloni said.

But the consequence is that a police force that feels vulnerable is more likely to use lethal force, she added.

Magaloni's team is also studying how many bullets individual police officers used in their daily shifts during the 2005-2014 period. Other variables under review include officers' age, gender, training and the effect of promotions.

One big issue is how police units encourage "violent subcultures," she said. This point was recently made clear when five adolescents were killed by Rio police officers in a unit infamous for its violent history and reputation.

"Using a variety of statistical methods, including network analysis, our research will be able to better understand how violent subcultures are engendered and how easily these can spread across units," Magaloni said.

Violence breeds violence

Prior research shows that violent societies tend to produce violent police forces – whether in Rio or elsewhere, Magaloni said.

"One of the most revealing aspects of the survey research is that police officers in Rio de Janeiro have been exposed to high levels of violence during childhood," she said.

According to Magaloni's research, during their childhood 18 percent of Rio police officers saw a homicide, 32 percent had a person close to them killed by a criminal, 25 percent were constantly surrounded by gunshots and 20 percent were afraid of being killed when they were children.

Such experiences have long-lasting psychological effects on people who become police officers, she said.

In Rio, Magaloni said, police often use the "resistance to arrest" defense in cases of civilian killings, which has exacerbated the violence problem. In fact, during the late 1990s, the government introduced a "bravery bonus" that financially rewarded police officers if they engaged in shootouts with so-called "criminals." Parts of Rio are known as havens for drug traffickers and criminal gangs.

The bonus program has been terminated, but its effects linger. Magaloni's research revealed that police officers who received such bonuses in the past continue to use more lethal force on the job today.

Cultural and social attitudes play other roles. Forty-two percent of Rio police officers in one of Magaloni's surveys agree with the statement that a "good criminal is a dead criminal."

"Police killings have unfortunately been vindicated by the larger society, which has trivialized violence, especially when this affects black people in the favelas," said Magaloni, who is also the director of the Program on Poverty and Governance for the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford.

Checking police aggression

Magaloni's team suggests that body-worn cameras, which have been adopted by some U.S. police departments, could help reduce the police-on-civilian killings in Rio de Janeiro. She acknowledges that impediments exist, such as whether police officers will keep the cameras on when interacting with citizens.

As a result, her study will investigate whether it is more effective when police keep their cameras on during their entire shifts or when they only turn them on when interacting with citizens. The study will also explore the most effective protocols for processing images, which Magaloni said is often problematic for police.

"Which videos should be audited and what strategies should commanders and supervisors follow to deliver feedback to police officers?" she noted.

This study involves cameras randomly assigned among police units in Rocinha, Rio's largest slum neighborhood. Launched in late November, it will last between nine and 12 months, she said.

"We seek to evaluate not only if cameras can reduce lethal violent confrontations, but also other forms of violent interactions, including disrespect and aggressions by the police and the community against police officers," said Magaloni.

Finally, in 2016 she plans to begin another project with the Rio police on developing a "scorecard" that identifies the most violent police officers at all levels of their careers and randomly selects a group of these for a cognitive-behavioral intervention to practice impulse control, emotional self-regulation and developing a sense of personal integrity.

"Our research suggests that cultural and psychological factors shape police violence," Magaloni said.

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Abstract:

This paper evaluates the causal impact of Rio de Janeiro’s Pacifying Police Units (UPPs), probably the largest–scale police reform initiative taking place in the developing world. The main goals of the UPPs were: 1) to regain control of territories previously dominated by armed criminal groups; and 2) to improve security for these communities through reduction of lethal violence. In the course of six years, more than 9,000 police officers were permanently assigned to the UPPs, servicing close to half million residents in the city slums (favelas). We are interested in understanding the process through which governments supply a basic public service –the police -- in poor urban neighborhoods that have long been abandoned to the arbitrary rule of non-state armed actors. Moreover, our paper documents Rio de Janeiro’s painful trajectory of police violence, illuminating some of it major institutional facilitators. Painstakingly geo-coding homicides and police killings from 2005 to 2013, we provide answers to some of the most critical questions about police use of lethal force, including the determinants of variations in who is targeted by police repression and how different strategies for policing the slums have impacted police killings. To evaluate the UPP impact on lethal violence, we use a variety of causal identification strategies that leverage spatial and temporal variation in the introduction of the UPP as well as geo-referenced data of more than 22,000 incidents of lethal violence. Our empirical models reveal that the UPP had mixed results. The introduction of the UPPs did not play a significant role in reducing murders in the favelas that were pacified. The UPP’s failure to reduce homicides imply that the poor in the slums continue to be subject to two or three times higher murder rates than the white middle class. Nonetheless, the UPP is breaking long-held practices of extreme use of police lethal violence. Our empirical results convincingly demonstrate that police killings would have been 60 percent larger without the UPP intervention.

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CDDRL Working Papers
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Beatriz Magaloni
Edgar Franco
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This is the second meeting of the workshop series on Civility, Cruelty, Truth. A one-day event hosted by the Stanford Humanities Center, the workshop will explore the genealogies, promises, and limits of civic virtue—at the heart of which is the city, the classical polis, itself— as a universal ideal. European in its moral contours, constituted by a deep fascination with the rule of law, borders, and security, at once coercive and oblique in whom it excludes and includes, how it punishes and protects, the city held out the promise of a humane center for ethical and sovereign life, one upon which anticolonial struggles against European empires too were first conceived and mounted. This workshop will examine the ambiguous foundations and resolutions of that vision in Asia, Europe, and the fatal waters in between; a vision that has come to be marked today by extreme violence and tragic displacements, and which now presses new questions against the very limit of modern political imagination.
 
Faculty Organizer: Aishwary Kumar (Department of History)
Student Assistant: Ahoo Najafian (Department of Religious Studies)
 
Schedule (coming soon)
 

Co-sponsored by the Department of History, Department of Religious Studies, The Europe Center, The France- Stanford Center for interdisciplinary Studies, Program in Global Justice, McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society, Stanford Global Studies, School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford Humanities Center, Center for South Asia

 

Stanford Humanities Center
424 Santa Teresa St.
 

Conferences
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Please note that the room has been changed from E008 to CISAC Central Conference Room on the 2nd floor of Encina Hall. 

 

ABSTRACT

Why were Arab Spring revolutionaries able to topple deep-seated autocrats while the American Occupy movement failed to achieve its stated goals?

Examples of successful nonviolent struggle like in India, Serbia 2000 or Georgia in 2003, show that it takes far more than bringing a demonstrating crowd to the streets to achieve a social change. There are certain principles of success, like unity, planning, nonviolent discipline, the influence of new media and choosing proper strategies and tactics that must be considered.

The use of nonviolence is not only morally more favourable, but also proofs to be more succesfull if we look at some empirical facts.

  1. Major nonviolent campaigns have achieved success 53 percent of the time, compared with 26 percent for violent resistance campaigns
  2. Nonviolent campaigns are not only twice more likely to success but that range increases in last decades after cold war.
  3. Nonviolent campaigns are 10 times more likely to end in durable democracy.

As contrast, violence not only breeds more violence and causes long-term instability like in Iraq, Afghanistan or Kyrgistan, but it also provides an excuse for each subsequent violent action, which puts every nonviolent protest movement in danger.

 

SPEAKER BIO

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srdja popovic photo2015
Srdja Popovic was one of the founders of the Serbian nonviolent resistance group Otpor! Otpor!’s campaign against Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic was successful in October 2000 when thousands of protestors took over the Serbian Parliament. After the revolution, Popovic served a term as a member of the Serbian National Assembly. In 2003, Popovic and others started the Centre for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS). CANVAS has worked with activists from 46 different countries, including Zimbabwe, Burma, Iran, and Venezuela, spreading knowledge of the nonviolent strategies and tactics used by Otpor! In November 2011, Foreign Policy Magazine listed Srdja Popovic as one of the "Top 100 Global Thinkers" of 2011 for inspiring the Arab Spring protesters.  In 2012 he was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2014 he was listed as a “Young Global Leader” by the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Srdja is also the author of the recent book Blueprint for Revolution, a fun and humorous look at nonviolent activism worldwide."

 


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Srdja Popovic Serbian Political Activist, Founder of Nonviolent Resistance Group Otpor! Serbian Political Activist, Founder of Nonviolent Resistance Group Otpor!
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