We report results from a large field experiment that with a few hours prior notice provided Danish residential consumers with dynamic price and environmental signals aimed at causing them to shift their consumption either into or away from certain hours of the day. The same marginal price signal is found to cause substantially larger consumption shifts into target hours compared to consumption shifts away from target hours. Consumption is also reduced in the hours of the day before and after these into target hours and there is weaker evidence of increased consumption in the hours surrounding away target hours. The same into versus away results hold for the environmental signals, although the absolute size of the eects are smaller. Using detailed household-level demographic information for all customers invited to participate in the experiment, both models are re-estimated accounting for this decision. For both the price and environmental treatments, the same qualitative results are obtained, but with uniformly smaller quantitative magnitudes. These selection-corrected estimates are used to perform a counterfactual experiment where all of the retailer’s residential customers are assumed to face these dynamic price signals. We find substantial wholesale energy cost savings for the retailer from declaring into events designed to shift consumption from high demand periods to low demand perio ds within the day, which suggests that such a pricing strategy could significantly reduce the cost of increasing the share of greenhouse gas free wind and solar electricity production in an electricity supply industry.

Using hourly offer curves for the Italian day-ahead market and the real-time re-dispatch market for the period January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2018, we show how thermal generation unit owners attempt to profit from differences between a simplified day- ahead market design that ignores system security constraints as well as generation unit operating constraints, and real-time system operation where these constraints must be respected. We find that thermal generation unit owners increase or decrease their day- ahead offer price depending on the probability that their final output will be increased or decreased because of real-time operating constraints. We estimate generation unit- level models of the probability of each of these outcomes conditional on forecast demand and renewable production in Italy and neighbouring countries. Our most conservative estimate implies an offer price increase of 50 EUR/MWh if the predicted probability of day-ahead market schedule increases from zero to one. If the predicted probability of a day-ahead market schedule increases from zero to one the unit owner’s offer price is predicted to be 60 EUR/MWh less. We find that these re-dispatch costs averaged approximately nine percent of the cost of wholesale energy consumed valued at the day-ahead price during our sample period.

The different incentives generation unit owners face for locating and operating their units in the wholesale market regime versus the vertically-integrated monopoly regime has wide-ranging implications for the design and operation of the transmission network in the two regimes. This logic implies different measures of grid reliability in the two regimes—engineering reliability in the vertically-integrated monopoly regime and economic reliability in the wholesale market regimes. Because of the different planning criteria in the two regimes, the economically efficient choice of transmission capacity in the wholesale market regime is generally greater than that in the vertically-integrated monopoly regime. A number of arguments are presented for why the transmission planning and regulatory process for the wholesale market regime requires substantially more engineering and economic modeling sophistication than is required in the vertically-integrated monopoly regime. A forward-looking framework is proposed for evaluating transmission network expansions in the wholesale market regime. This includes a general methodology for computing the distribution of realized economic benefits from an upgrade in the wholesale market regime. How the measurement of the economic benefits of transmission expansions to support the deployment of renewable resources differs between the wholesale market regime and vertically-integrated monopoly regime is also discussed.

We investigate the relationship between accumulated experience completing wind power projects and the cost of installing wind projects in the U.S. from 2001-2015. Our modeling framework disentangles accumulated experience from input price changes, scale economies, and exogenous technical change; and accounts for both firm-specific and industry-wide accumulated experience. We find evidence consistent with cost-reducing benefits from firm-specific experience for that firm’s cost of future wind power projects, but no evidence of industry-wide learning from the experience of other participants in the industry. Further, our experience measure rapidly depreciates across time and distance, suggesting a stable industry trajectory would lower project costs.

This paper identifies the key features of successful electricity market designs that are particularly relevant to the experience of low-income countries. Important features include: (1) the match between the short-term market used to dispatch generation units and the physical operation of the electricity network, (2) effective regulatory and market mechanisms to ensure long-term generation resource adequacy, (3) appropriate mechanisms to mitigate local market power, and (4) mechanisms to allow the active involvement of final demand in a short-term market. The paper provides a recommended baseline market design that reflects the experience of the past 25 years
with electricity restructuring processes. It then suggests a simplified version of this market design ideally suited to the proposed East and Western Sub-Sahara Africa regional wholesale market that is likely to realise a substantial amount of the economic benefits from forming a regional market with minimal implementation cost and regulatory burden. Recommendations are also provided for modifying the Southern African Power Pool to increase the economic benefits realised from its formation. How this market design supports the cost-effective integration of renewables is discussed and future enhancements are proposed that support the integration of a greater share
of intermittent renewables. The paper closes with proposed directions for future research in the area of electricity market design in developing countries.

The electricity supply industry in a low-carbon world will have over 50 percent share of intermittent renewables.  This large share of intermittent renewables will require investments in both grid-scale and distributed storage, active demand-side participation by customers, and automated distribution network monitoring and on-site load-shifting technologies.  Market design should support business models that lead to adoption of these pricing policies and technologies.  The policy question is what long-term resource adequacy mechanism will facilitate a least-cost transition to this future electricity supply industry with these pricing policies and technologies?

California’s decision to allow Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) to shut off electricity to hundreds of thousands of Californians because high winds and dry conditions may cause a downed powerline to start a wildfire is a third-world solution to a first-world problem.

Thurber:  "Big is beautiful" for wind and solar

Distributed renewables have an important niche, especially for off-grid lighting in developing countries, but almost every challenge associated with wind and solar is cheaper and easier to manage in large, interconnected grids. Writing for Energy for Growth Hub, PESD Associate Director Mark Thurber explains how scale and connectivity help us get the most out of our wind and solar resources.