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In an unusually well-documented contribution on Russian secret intelligence, David Holloway posits reasons for Stalin’s unpreparedness in 1940-1941. This, it is fair to say, has long been an obsessive object of interest and study in Russia, because it made all the difference to the course of the war that followed from June 1941. Rather than rushing into moral judgments about the régime, Holloway instead takes a cool look at what information came in to Stalin and allows for the fact that not all the incoming intelligence data were consistent. And in respect of revelations about U.S. construction of the atomic bomb, Holloway shows that Stalin once again consciously distanced himself from the findings of the intelligence services in reaching a final judgment. Whereas in the former case, it nearly led to disaster; in respect of the latter, Stalin was undoubtedly correct.

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The Cold War began in Europe in the mid-1940s and ended there in 1989. Notions of a “global Cold War” are useful in describing the wide impact and scope of the East-West divide after World War II, but first and foremost the Cold War was about the standoff in Europe. The Soviet Union established a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe in the mid-1940s that later became institutionalized in the Warsaw Pact, an organization that was offset by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led by the United States. The fundamental division of Europe persisted for forty years, coming to an end only when Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe dissolved. Imposing, Maintaining, and Tearing Open the Iron Curtain: The Cold War and East-Central Europe, 1945–1989, edited by Mark Kramer and Vít Smetana, consists of cutting-edge essays by distinguished experts who discuss the Cold War in Europe from beginning to end, with a particular focus on the countries that were behind the iron curtain. The contributors take account of structural conditions that helped generate the Cold War schism in Europe, but they also ascribe agency to local actors as well as to the superpowers. The chapters dealing with the end of the Cold War in Europe explain not only why it ended but also why the events leading to that outcome occurred almost entirely peacefully.

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Lexington Books
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Nuclear weapons are so central to the history of the Cold War that it can be difficult to disentangle the two. Did nuclear weapons cause the Cold War? Did they contribute to its escalation? Did they help to keep the Cold War “cold”? We should also ask how the Cold War shaped the development of atomic energy. Was the nuclear-arms race a product of Cold War tension rather than its cause?

The atomic bomb and the origins of the Cold War:

The nuclear age began before the Cold War. During World War II, three countries decided to build the atomic bomb: Britain, the United States, and the Soviet Union. Britain put its own work aside and joined the Manhattan Project as a junior partner in 1943. The Soviet effort was small before August 1945. The British and American projects were driven by the fear of a German atomic bomb, but Germany decided in 1942 not to make a serious effort to build the bomb. In an extraordinary display of scientific and industrial might, the United States made two bombs ready for use by August 1945. Germany was defeated by then, but President Harry S. Truman decided to use the bomb against Japan.

The decision to use the atomic bomb has been a matter of intense controversy. Did Truman decide to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki in order, as he claimed, to end the war with Japan without further loss of American lives? Or did he drop the bombs in order to intimidate the Soviet Union, without really needing them to bring the war to an end? His primary purpose was surely to force Japan to surrender, but he also believed that the bomb would help him in his dealings with Iosif V. Stalin. That latter consideration was secondary, but it confirmed his decision. Whatever Truman’s motives, Stalin regarded the use of the bomb as an anti-Soviet move, designed to deprive the Soviet Union of strategic gains in the Far East and more generally to give the United States the upper hand in defining the postwar settlement. On August 20, 1945, two weeks to the day after Hiroshima, Stalin signed a decree setting up a Special Committee on the Atomic Bomb, under the chairmanship of Lavrentii P. Beriia. The Soviet project was now a crash program.

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Cambridge University Press
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CISAC Honors Student
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Class of 2016

Ben Mittelberger is a senior in computer science concentrating in information systems design and implementation. He is a current student in the CISAC Honors Program. His thesis is titled: "In Data We Trust?: The Big Data Capabilities of the National Counterterrorism Center." It focuses on the increasing size and complexity of intelligence datasets and whether or not the center is structured properly to leverage them. He is advised by Dr. Martha Crenshaw

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In a story published in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, Assad Chemical Threat Mounts, the author reveals that intelligence agencies are concerned that Syrian authorities might resort to large-scale chemical attacks if the regime feels threatened by ISIS or other anti-government militants.

As the risks escalate, the argument presented in Foreign Policy 18 months ago by Stanford scholars Scott Sagan and Ben Buch is particularly timely. In Our Red Lines and Theirs, Sagan, a professor of political science and Senior Fellow at FSI and at CISAC, and Buch, a PhD candidate in Political Science, laid out the reasons why Iraq did not resort to chemical attacks against US forces and used their findings  to draw lessons that could be applied to the Syrian regime, another dictatorial regime armed with chemical weapons. Read the December 2013 article in full here.

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This year marks both the 150th anniversary of the end of the Civil War and the 14th year that U.S. troops have been engaged in conflict since 9/11. How have American writers portrayed the face of battle? What lessons have they learned from their writings about how humans remember or forget the past, and how do the controversies about these wars continue to haunt us still?

Courtesy Stanford LiveNatasha Trethewey

Poet Natasha Trethewey will read from her Pulitzer Prize-winning Native Guard as part of the Writing About War program.

On Tuesday, June 30, award-winning authors Natasha Trethewey and Phil Klay – both known for their acclaimed war-related works – will explore these topics in an evening of readings and conversation. The free program, titled Writing About War, is co-presented by Stanford Live and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford, and is part of a workshop on New Dilemmas of Ethics, Technology and War sponsored by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Writing About War begins at 6 p.m. in Bing Concert Hall, with opening remarks by Jonathan Fanton, president of the Academy.

"One of the traditions of the American Academy, from its earliest days in the 18th century, is to bring together scientists, social scientists and humanists to address pressing issues of national importance," says Stanford political science Professor Scott Sagan, a senior fellow at CISAC and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Sagan will moderate the discussion.

"Political scientists and historians often study how the evolution of military technology influences politicians and generals who decide to go to war," Sagan adds. "But it is the novelists, the poets and the short story writers whose work helps us better understand how changes in military technology influence the soldiers and the noncombatants on the battlefield and after wars end."

Courtesy Stanford LivePhil Klay

Veteran Phil Klay will read from his short story collection Redeployment, which won the 2014 National Book Award for fiction, at the event.

Klay, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran who Sagan calls "a remarkable new voice in American literature," will read from his 2014 National Book Award-winning Redeployment, a collection of short stories that portray war and its aftermath through the memories of ordinary soldiers and officers fighting in Iraq. The characters in these stories struggle to make meaning out of chaos in tales interwoven with themes of brutality and faith, guilt and fear, helplessness and survival.

Born in Gulfport, Mississippi, on April 26, Confederate Memorial Day, Trethewey could hardly have escaped learning about what the American Civil War represented. The 19th U.S. Poet Laureate will read from her 2007 Pulitzer Prize-winning book, Native Guard, which was inspired by a real diary of a Union Army officer. Trethewey's "haunting poems about the experiences of black Union soldiers," Sagan describes, "open our eyes to an important part of our nation's history that is too often forgotten."

The event on June 30 also speaks to the larger idea of using art to communicate veterans' trauma, loss and healing – one of the core themes that will be explored through Live Context: Art + Ideas during Stanford Live's 2015-16 season.

"As America's foreign military involvements stretch on seemingly without end, our country's returning veterans are in our consciousness more and more, as they are for the artists with whom Stanford Live has relationships," says Wiley Hausam, executive director of Stanford Live. "The War: Return and Recovery theme emerged from this convergence."

It's a theme that will be anchored by two new works planned by Hausam: the concert premiere of Stanford faculty composer Jonathan Berger's My Lai on Oct. 10, based on the tragic 1968 massacre during the Vietnam War; and a dance creation by choreographer Joe Goode titled to go again for the Oakland-based AXIS Dance Company on April 23, featuring the stories of several American veterans who have recently returned home from war told through a combination of movement, music and text. Additional related events will be announced in the fall.

Writing About War is free and open to the public. For more information or to make advance reservations, visit Stanford Live online.

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In 2006 the Mexican government launched an aggressive campaign to weaken drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs). The security policies differed significantly from those of previous administrations in the use of a leadership strategy (the targeting for arrest of the highest levels or core leadership of criminal networks). While these strategies can play an important role in disrupting the targeted criminal organization, they can also have unintended consequences, increasing inter-cartel and intra-cartel fighting and fragmenting criminal organizations. What impact do captures of senior drug cartel members have on the dynamics of drug-related violence? Does it matter if governments target drug kingpins vs. lower ranked lieutenants? We analyze whether the captures or killings of kingpins and lieutenants have increased drug-related violence and whether the violence spills over spatially. To estimate effects that are credibly causal, we use different empirical strategies that combine difference-in-differences and synthetic control group methods. We find evidence that captures or killings of drug cartel leaders have exacerbating effects not only on DTO-related violence, but also on homicides that affect the general population. Captures or killings of lieutenants, for their part, only seem to exacerbate violence in “strategic places” or municipalities located in the transportation network. While most of the effects on DTO-related violence are found in the first six months after a leader’s removal, effects on homicides affecting the rest of the population are more enduring, suggesting different mechanisms through which leadership neturalizations breed violence.

 

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CDDRL Working Paper
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Gabriela Calderón
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros
Beatriz Magaloni
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