Stanford University

Climate

A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

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Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 degrees Celsius of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Nature Climate Change
Authors
A.J. Challinor
J. Watson
David Lobell
David Lobell
S.M. Howden
D.R. Smith
N. Chhetri
External URL

Has the Food Price Bubble Burst?

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A reception in the lobby of Encina Hall will follow the event.

Bursting the Bubble: A Long Run Perspective

What are the long run drivers of global food prices? Given current market developments, what are the prospects for food price changes over the coming decades?

Thomas Hertel is Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, where his research focuses on the global impacts of trade, climate and environmental policies. In 2013 he was awarded the inaugural Purdue University Research and Scholarship Distinction Award.  Professor Hertel is a former Cargill Visiting Fellow at the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford.

Dr. Hertel is a Fellow, and Past-President, of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA). He is also the founder and Executive Director of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) which now encompasses more than 10,000 researchers in 150 countries around the world (http://www.gtap.org). This Project maintains a global economic data base and an applied general equilibrium modeling framework which are documented in the book: Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, edited by Dr. Hertel, and published by Cambridge University Press in 1997.

Professor Hertel’s most recent research has focused on the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on global trade, land use and poverty. During the 2011-12 year he was on leave at Stanford University, where he was engaged in inter-disciplinary research on these topics.

Previously, Professor Hertel has conducted research on the impacts of multilateral trade agreements, including the linkages between global trade policies and poverty in developing countries. His book: Poverty and the WTO (co-edited with L. Alan Winters) received the AAEA Quality of Communication award. Other AAEA awards include: Distinguished Policy Contribution and Outstanding Journal Article.

If the Food Price Bubble Burst, Would It Matter?

What are the economic and political implications of a bursting of the food price bubble?

Johan Swinnen is President of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, a Fellow of the AAEA (Association of (the US) Agricultural and Applied Economists ); a Fellow of the ERAE (European Association of Agricultural Economists). He is also President of The Beeronomics Society. He holds a Ph.D from Cornell University and a Honorary Doctorate from the Slovak Agricultural University.

He is currently Visiting Professor at the Centre for Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University and (since many years) Professor of Economics and Director of the LICOS-Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance -- a Centre of Excellence -- at the KU Leuven, Belgium. He is also Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Brussels, where he directs the programme on EU agricultural and rural policy.

He was previously Lead Economist at the World Bank and Economic Advisor at the European Commission. He is a regular consultant for these organizations and for the OECD, FAO, the EBRD, and several Governments and was coordinator of several international research networks on food policy, institutional reforms, and economic development.

He has published widely on political economy, institutional reform, trade, global supply chains, product standards, agricultural policy and global food security. His publications have appeared in leading academic journals, such as the Journal of Economic Literature Science, and Nature.

This lecture is the first installment of FSE's Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series.

Bechtel Conference Center

Johan Swinnen

LICOS Center for Transition Economics
K.U.Leuven
Deberiotstraat
34 3000 Leuven, Belgium

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Professor at the University of Leuven (KUL) in Belgium. Research Affiliate, Rural Education Action Project, FSE Visiting Scholar
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PhD

Johan Swinnen is Professor of Development Economics and Director of LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance at the University of Leuven (KUL) in Belgium. He is also Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Brussels, where he directs the programme on EU agricultural and rural policy. From 2003 to 2004 he was Lead Economist at the World Bank and from 1998 to 2001 Economic Advisor at the European Commission.

He is a regular consultant for these organizations and for the OECD, FAO, the EBRD, and several governments and was coordinator of several international research networks on food policy, institutional reforms, and economic development. He is President—Elect of the International Association of Agricultural Economists and a Fellow of the European Association of Agricultural Economists. He holds a Ph.D from Cornell University.  

His research focuses on institutional reform and development, globalization and international integration, media economics, and agriculture and food policy. His latest books are “Political Power and Economic Policy” (Cambridge Univ Press),  “The Perfect Storm: The Political Economy of the Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy” (CEPS),  “Global Supply Chains, Standards, and the Poor” (CABI), “Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in the Transition Economies of Europe and Central Asia” (World Bank Publications), and “From Marx and Mao to the Market” (Oxford University Press -- and Chinese translation by Beijing University Press). He is the president of The Beeronomics Society and editor of the book “The Economics of Beer” (Oxford Univ Press).

Johan Swinnen Professor of Development Economics and Director of LICOS Center for Institutions and Economic Performance at the University of Leuven (KUL) in Belgium Speaker

Thomas Hertel

Center on Food Security and the Environment
473 Via Ortega, room 365
Stanford, CA 94305-4205

(650) 721-2203
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Cargill Visiting Fellow
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PhD

Hertel is a Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. His research focuses on the economy-wide impacts of global trade and environmental policies with a particular interest in the impacts of energy and climate policies on global land use and poverty. He is also Executive Director, and founder of the Center for Global Trade Analysis, and Past-President of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

During his stay at Stanford he undertook research into the impacts of climate change and climate policy on agriculture, food security and poverty. In the winter quarter he co-taught an FSE seminar (with David Lobell) on the long run determinants of global agricultural land use.

Background video on GEOSHARE

Thomas Hertel Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University Speaker
Lectures
Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series

Imagining Xi Jinping's China in 2023: Is a New Type of Great Power Relationship Possible Between the U.S. and China

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Mr. Rudd served as Australia’s 26th Prime Minister from 2007 to 2010, then as Foreign Minister from 2010 to 2012, before returning to the Prime Ministership in 2013. As Prime Minister, Mr. Rudd led Australia’s response during the Global Financial Crisis. Australia's fiscal response to the crisis was reviewed by the IMF as the most effective stimulus strategy of all member states. Australia was the only major advanced economy not to go into recession. Mr. Rudd is also internationally recognized as one of the founders of the G20 which drove the global response to the crisis, and which in 2009 helped prevent the crisis from spiraling into a second global depression.

As Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mr. Rudd was active in global and regional foreign policy leadership. He was a driving force in expanding the East Asia Summit to include both the US and Russia in 2010. He also initiated the concept of transforming the EAS into a wider Asia Pacific Community to help manage deep-routed tensions in Asia by building over time the institutions and culture of common security in Asia. On climate change, Mr. Rudd ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2007 and legislated in 2008 for a 20% mandatory renewable energy target for Australia. Mr. Rudd launched Australia's challenge in the International Court of Justice with the object of stopping Japanese whaling in the Southern Ocean. Mr Rudd drove Australia’s successful bid for its current non-permanent seat on the United Nation’s Security Council and the near doubling of Australia's foreign aid budget.

Mr. Rudd remains engaged in a range of international challenges including global economic management, the rise of China, climate change and sustainable development. He is on the International Advisory Panel of Chatham House. He is a proficient speaker of Mandarin Chinese, a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University and funded the establishment of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University. He was a co-author of the recent report of the UN Secretary General's High Level Panel on Global Sustainability – “Resilient People, Resilient Planet" and chairs the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on Fragile States. He also remains actively engaged in indigenous reconciliation.

Bechtel Conference Center

Kevin Rudd 26th Prime Minister of Australia Speaker
Conferences
Asia-Pacific Leaders Forum

Federica Genovese

616 Serra Street
Encina Hall West
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6044

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Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Political Science
Europe Center Research Associate
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Federica Genovese is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Political Science at Stanford. Her research focuses on global cooperation, political institutions and economic interdependence. Her dissertation examined the national preferences for climate change policies and the success and failures of bargaining at the international climate change negotiations.  Additional research includes the impact of financial crises on European political institutions, and the diffusion dynamics of environmental regulations.

Federica earned her PhD from University of Konstanz (Germany) in November 2013. More information on her work can be found on her webpage: http://www.federica-genovese.com

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Ethnic differences in the relationship between insulin sensitivity and insulin response

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Abstract:

OBJECTIVE Human blood glucose levels have likely evolved toward their current point of stability over hundreds of thousands of years. The robust population stability of this trait is called canalization. It has been represented by a hyperbolic function of two variables: insulin sensitivity and insulin response. Environmental changes due to global migration may have pushed some human subpopulations to different points of stability. We hypothesized that there may be ethnic differences in the optimal states in the relationship between insulin sensitivity and insulin response.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We identified studies that measured the insulin sensitivity index (SI) and acute insulin response to glucose (AIRg) in three major ethnic groups: Africans, Caucasians, and East Asians. We identified 74 study cohorts comprising 3,813 individuals (19 African cohorts, 31 Caucasian, and 24 East Asian). We calculated the hyperbolic relationship using the mean values of SI and AIRg in the healthy cohorts with normal glucose tolerance.

RESULTS We found that Caucasian subpopulations were located around the middle point of the hyperbola, while African and East Asian subpopulations are located around unstable extreme points, where a small change in one variable is associated with a large nonlinear change in the other variable.

CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the genetic background of Africans and East Asians makes them more and differentially susceptible to diabetes than Caucasians. This ethnic stratification could be implicated in the different natural courses of diabetes onset.

Canalization is the way in which organisms develop phenotypic robustness as a response to genetic or environmental perturbations. This process ensures the stability of critical biological processes like blood glucose regulation. Canalization of this trait can be represented by a hyperbolic function of two underlying variables: insulin sensitivity and insulin response, as primarily described by Kahn et al. (1,2).

Global migration in the early history of Homo sapiens placed people in new environments, resulting in novel diets, food scarcity, different climates, and exposure to novel pathogens. These changes may have shifted population averages of factors that influence insulin sensitivity and secretion. They include body size, body composition, energy expenditure, storage, and heat production. As these factors changed, they may have disclosed cryptic genetic variation or adopted novel mutations, leading to disruption of the unique point of stable equilibrium of ancestral populations. As this process continued over hundreds of millennia, specific genetic and environmental perturbations may have pushed some subpopulations to different points of stability (1,3–5).

We hypothesized that there may be ethnic differences in the optimal states in the relationship between insulin sensitivity and insulin response and that these differences may depend on a population’s genetic or evolutionary history. To assess this hypothesis, we performed a systematic review and a meta-analysis of studies of the insulin sensitivity index (SI) and the acute insulin response to glucose (AIRg). Our analysis was done in cohorts in any of the three major ethnic groups: Africans, Caucasians, and East Asians. We found significant differences between the groups.

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Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Diabetes Care
Authors
Keiichi Kodoma
Damon Tojjar
Satoru Yamada
Kyoko Toda
Chirag J. Patel
Atul J.Butte
External URL

Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on Sub-Saharan Africa

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Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on sub-Saharan Africa is a compilation of research stemming from the Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The series, and this volume, have brought the world's leading policy experts in the fields of food and agricultural development together for a comprehensive dialogue on pro-poor growth and food security policy. Participants and contributing authors have addressed the major themes of hunger and rural poverty, agricultural productivity, resource and climate constraints on agriculture, and food and agriculture policy, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa.

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Publication Type
Books
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Stanford Center on Food Security and the Environment
Authors
Walter P. Falcon
Rosamond L. Naylor
Rosamond L. Naylor
Number
978-1497516557
External Purchase Links

Special Seminar by Steven Chu: Climate Change, Innovations in Energy, and Scientists in Government Service

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The Stanford Chinese Faculty and Family Club (SCFFC) and the China 2.0 initiative of Stanford Graduate School of Business are pleased to announce that Steven Chu, Professor of Physics and Molecular & Cellular Physiology will give a talk on Sunday, October 13. Recently returned to Stanford after serving as the 12th U.S. Secretary of Energy, he will speak on

"Climate Change, Innovations in Energy, and Scientists in Government Service"

To kick-off the new academic year, Dr. Chu will informally share his thoughts on important energy issues and reminisce a little about his experience in Washington, D.C.

SCFFC members and family are cordially invited. Current Stanford students with ID cards are also welcome. Please join us to celebrate the inaugural event of SCFFC and China 2.0 at Stanford, to meet up with old friends, and make new ones.

Please click here to RSVP.

Oberndorf Event Center
Stanford Graduate School of Business

Conferences

GMOs could have a role in preventing hunger, says FSE director Roz Naylor

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News
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Consumers are wary of genetically engineered crops, but FSE Director Rosamond Naylor makes the case for the role that GMOs can play in fighting persistent hunger in some of the world's poorest and malnourished places. Her perspective was included in a debate about GMOs that recently appeared in Boston Review.

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Climate variability and global food security, with an eye on France

Extreme weather events and climate variability threaten crop production, food prices, food security, and human lives at local and global scales. Ten years ago, a record heat wave killed over 30,000 people and seriously damaged crop yields in France and northern Italy; summertime heat waves and associated droughts have subsequently decimated maize and soy yields in the U.S. and wheat yields in Russia, causing global food prices to soar.

Journal Article: "Mass Support for Global Climate Agreements Depends on Institutional Design", written by Michael Bechtel and Kenneth Scheve

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News
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Political Science professors Kenneth Scheve (Stanford) and Michael Bechtel's (University of Gallen) article on global climate agreements looks at how costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement affects the public support needed to sustain international efforts over the long run.

For a full synopsis and a PDF of the complete article, please visit the publication website by clicking on the article title below.

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