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Nearly 100 health economists from across the United States signed a pledge urging U.S. presidential candidates to make chronic disease a policy priority. Karen Eggleston, a scholar of comparative healthcare systems and director of Stanford’s Asia Health Policy Program, is one of the signatories. 

The pledge calls upon the candidates to reset the national healthcare agenda to better address chronic disease, which causes seven out of 10 deaths in America and affects the economy through lost productivity and disability.

Read the pledge below.

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Background: Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) are used in risk assessment for the development of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide. Within a Cambodian population, this study aimed to identify an appropriate BMI and WC cutoff to capture those individuals that are overweight and have an elevated risk of vascular disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the STEP survey conducted by the Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Cambodia in 2010. In total, 5,015 subjects between age 25 and 64 years were included in the analyses. Chi-square, Fisher’s Exact test and Student t-test, and multiple logistic regression were performed. Of total, 35.6% (n=1,786) were men, and 64.4% (n=3,229) were women. Mean age was 43.0 years (SD = 11.2 years) and 43.6 years (SD = 10.9 years) for men and women, respectively. Significant association of subjects with hypertension and hypercholesterolemia was found in those with BMI $23.0 kg/m2 and with WC .80.0 cm in both sexes. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) from Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was significantly greater in both sexes (all p-values, 0.001) when BMI of 23.0 kg/m2 was used as the cutoff point for overweight compared to that using WHO BMI classification for overweight (BMI $25.0 kg/m2) for detecting the three cardiovascular risk factors. Similarly, AUC was also significantly higher in men (p-value, 0.001) when using WC of 80.0 cm as the cutoff point for central obesity compared to that recommended by WHO (WC $94.0 cm in men).

Conclusion: Lower cutoffs for BMI and WC should be used to identify of risks of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia for Cambodian aged between 25 and 64 years.

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PLoS ONE
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Yom An
Siyan Yi
Annette Fitzpatrick
Vinay Gupta
Piseth Raingsey Prak
Sophal Oum
James P. LoGerfo
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We use retrospectively reported data on smoking behavior of residents of Mainland China and Taiwan to compare and contrast patterns in smoking behavior over the life-course of individuals in these two regions. Because we construct the life-history of smoking for all survey respondents, our data cover an exceptionally long period of time – up to fifty years in both samples. During this period, both societies experienced substantial social and economic changes. The two regions developed at much different rates and the political systems of the two areas evolved in very different ways. More importantly, governments in the two areas set policies that caused the flow of information about the health risks of smoking to differ across the regions and over time. We exploit these differences, using counts of articles in newspapers from 1951 to present, to explore whether and how the arrival of information affected life-course smoking decisions of residents in the two areas. We also present evidence that suggests how prices/taxes and key historical events might have affected decisions to smoke.

Dean Lillard received his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 1991. From 1991 to 2012, he was a faculty member and senior research associate in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University. In August 2012 he joined the Department Human Sciences at Ohio State University as an Associate Professor. He is Director and Project Manager of the Cross-National Equivalent File study that produces cross-national data. He is a member of the American Economics Association, the Population Association of America, the International Association for Research on Income and Wealth, the International Health Economics Association, the American Society for Health Economics, a Research Associate at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, Germany, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He serves on the advisory board of the Danish National Institute for Social Research in Copenhagen, Denmark and the Cross-National Studies: Interdisciplinary Research and Training Program – a collaborative program run by the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), and together with the Mershon Centre at OSU.

Dean Lillard's current research focuses on health economics, the economics of schooling, and international comparisons of economic behavior. His research in health economics is primarily focused on the economics of the marketing and consumption of cigarettes and alcohol. His research on the economics of schooling includes studies of direct effects of policy on educational outcomes and on the role that education plays in other economic behaviors such as smoking, production of health, and earnings. His cross-national research ranges widely from comparisons of the role that obesity plays in determining labor market outcomes to comparisons of smoking behavior cross-nationally.

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Dean R. Lillard Associate Professor, Department Human Sciences Speaker Ohio State University
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Urbanization and obesity-related chronic diseases are cited as threats to the future health of India's older citizens. With 50% of deaths in adult Indians currently due to chronic diseases, the relationship of urbanization and migration trends to obesity patterns have important population health implications for older Indians. The researchers constructed and calibrated a set of 21 microsimulation models of weight and height of Indian adults. The models separately represented current urban and rural populations of India's major states and were further stratified by sex.

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Because of the health and economic costs of childhood obesity, coupled with studies suggesting the benefits of comprehensive (dietary, physical activity, and behavioral counseling) intervention, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended childhood screening and intervention for obesity beginning at age 6. Using a longitudinal data set consisting of the body mass index of 3,164 children up to age 18 and another
longitudinal data set containing the body mass index at ages 18 and 40 and the presence or absence of disease (hypertension and diabetes) at age 40 for 747 people, we formulate and numerically solve—separately for boys and girls—a dynamic programming problem for the optimal biennial (i.e., at ages 2,4,...16) obesity screening thresholds. Unlike most screening problem formulations, we take a societal viewpoint, where the state of the system at each age is the population-wide probability density function of the body mass index. Compared to the biennial version of the task force’s recommendation, the screening thresholds derived from the dynamic program achieve a relative reduction in disease prevalence of 3% at the same screening (and treatment) cost, or—because of the flatness of the disease versus screening trade-off curve—achieves the same disease prevalence at a 28% relative reduction in cost. Compared to the task force’s policy, which uses the 95th percentile of body mass index (from cross-sectional growth charts tabulated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) as the screening threshold for each age, the dynamic programming policy treats mostly 16-year-olds (including many who are not obese) and very few males under 14 years old. Although our results suggest that adult hypertension and diabetes are minimized by focusing childhood obesity screening and treatment on older adolescents, the shortcomings in the available data and the narrowness of the medical outcomes considered prevent us from making a recommendation about childhood obesity screening policies.

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Management Science
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Yan Yang
Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert
Lawrence M. Wein
Lawrence M. Wein
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He will preview some of the main arguments about the temptations of "solutionism" from his upcoming book "To Save Everything, Click Here." Now that everything is smart, hackable and trackable, it is very common to see big technology companies (as well as ordinary tech enthusiasts and geeks) embark on ambitious projects to "solve all of the world's problems." Obesity, climate change, dishonesty and hypocrisy in politcs, high crime rate: Silicon Valley can do it all. But where does this solutionist quest lead? What are the things that ought to be left "dumb" and "unhackable"? How do we learn to appreciate the imperfection - of both our lives and our social institutions - in a world, where it can be easily eliminated? Do we even have to appreciate it? 
 
 Evgeny Morozov is the author of The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom. In 2010-2012 he was a visiting scholar at Stanford University's Liberation Technology program and a Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation. In 2009-2010 he was a fellow at Georgetown University and in 2008-2009 he was a fellow at the Open Society Foundations (where he also sat on the board of the Information Program between 2008 and 2012).  Between 2006 and 2008 he was Director of New Media at Transitions Online.  Morozov has written for The New York Times, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The New Republic, Financial Times, London Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, and other publications. His monthly Slate column is syndicaetd in El Pais, Corriere della Sera, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Folha de S.Paulo and several other newspapers. 

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Evgeny Morozov Author and former Stanford Visiting Scholar Speaker
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Ashley Dean
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Outside of China, the world now has more food insecure and nutrient deficient people than it had a decade ago, and the prevalence of obesity-related diabetes, high blood pressure and cardio-vascular diseases is increasing at very rapid rates. Expanded food production has done little to address the fact that between one-third and one-half of all deaths in children under five in developing countries are still related to malnutrition.

“With only three years away from the Millennium Development Goals deadline, this is a terrible track record,” said food and nutrition policy expert Per Pinstrup-Andersen at FSE's Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series last week.  

Pinstrup-Andersen, the only economist to win the World Food Prize (the ultimate award in the food security field), has dedicated his career to understanding the linkages between food, nutrition, and agriculture. What is driving persistent food insecurity and malnutrition in a food abundant world?

Poor food supply management is part of the problem. According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 20-30% of food produced globally is lost every year. That’s enough to feed an additional 3-3.5 billion people.

Jatropha in Africa. Photo credit: Ton Rulkens/flickr.

Biofuels production, such as jatropha in Africa, now competes with food for land, and climate change is already negatively impacting crop yields in regions straddling the equator—with major implications for food supply.

For low-income consumers in both the U.S. and developing countries increasing and more volatile food prices, such as those seen in 2007, are also driving food insecurity. Poor consumers respond by purchasing cheaper, less nutrient food, and less of it.

Nutritional value chain

Consensus is developing—at least rhetorically—among national policymakers and international organizations that investments in agricultural development must be accelerated. Members of the G8 and G20 have committed $20 billion in international economic support for such investments and some developing countries such as Ethiopia and Ghana are planning large new investments.

While most of these recent initiatives focus on expanded food supplies, there is an increasing understanding that merely making more food available will not assure better food security, nutrition, and health at the household and individual levels.

“It matters for health and nutrition how increasing food supplies are brought about and of what it consists,” said Pinstrup-Andersen. “We need to turn the food supply chain into a nutritional value chain.”

Diet diversity is incredibly important for good nutrition. Agricultural researchers and food production companies need to look at a number of different commodities, not just the major food staples, said Pinstrup-Andersen.

“The Green Revolution successfully increased the production of corn, rice, and wheat, increasing incomes for farmers, and lowering prices for consumers, but now it is time to invest in fruits, vegetables and biofortification to deal with micronutrient deficiency,” said Pintrup-Andersen.

Biofortification, the breeding of crops to increase their nutritional value, offers tremendous opportunity for dealing with malnutrition in the developing world, but is not widely available.

This is particularly important for areas in sub-Saharan Africa where between one and three and one and four people are short in calories, protein, and micronutrients. Obesity is actually going up in these countries with the introduction of cheap, processed, energy-dense foods (those high in sugar and fat) contributing to the diabetes epidemic.

Pathways to better health

Women hauling water to their gardens in Benin.

The path to better health and nutrition must look beyond the availability of food at affordable prices, clean water, and good sanitation, and consider behavioral factors such as time constraints for women in low-income households.

“Field studies have shown time and time again that one of the main factors preventing women from providing themselves and their families with good nutrition is time,” explained Pinstrup-Andersen.

He told the story of a woman in Bolivia too burdened with farm and household responsibilities to take the time to breastfeed her six-month old daughter. Enhancing productivity in activities traditionally undertaken by women could be a key intervention to improving good health and nutrition at the household level.

Access is another issue. A household may be considered food secure, in that sufficient food may be available, but food may not be equally allocated in the household.

“If we focus on the most limiting constraint we can be successful,” said Pinstrup-Anderen. “But we must tailor our response to each case.”

For sub-Saharan Africa, this includes investments in rural infrastructure, roads, irrigation systems, micronutrient fertilizer, climate adaptation strategies, and other barriers holding back small farmers.

Fortunately, there has been a renewed attention to the importance of guiding food system activities towards improved health and nutrition. The Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), which facilitates the distribution of some of the G8 and G20 $20 billion commitments, prescribes that country proposals for funding of agricultural development projects must show a clear pathway from the proposed agricultural change to human nutrition.

“But it’s not going to be easy to implement good policies,” warned Pinstrup-Andersen. “There are few incentives in government for multidisciplinary problem solving. The economy is set up around silos and people are loyal to their silos. Agricultural and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities, policy, and analysis."

Incentives must change to encourage working across ministries and disciplines to identify the most important health and nutrition-related drivers of food systems, impact pathways, and policy and program interventions to find win-wins for positive health and nutrition.

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