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The Asia Health Policy Program hosted meetings of the Association of Pacific Rim Universities World Institute (AWI, www.apru.org/awi) public health research project, February 24-25 at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. Stanford University is a member of the Association of Pacific Rim Universities, and the Asia Health Policy Program coordinates with others on the steering committee for the AWI public health project. The project brings together scholars from leading Pacific Rim universities to focus on comparative study of chronic non-communicable disease – the number one cause of premature death worldwide – in selected Pacific Rim cities (Beijing, Danang, Hangzhou, Hong Kong, Singapore, Jakarta, Makassar, Nanjing, Sydney, Taipei, Vientiane and Wuhan).

 

Ambassador Michael H. Armacost, Acting Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, welcomed the participants -- researchers and deans of schools of public health from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia. During the deliberations, the participants agreed to establish a program of research and development to prepare tools for use by health systems worldwide to implement best practice in chronic disease prevention and management through four areas of research: risk factor surveillance; assessment of costs and organization of services; change management to implement best practice; and monitoring and evaluation.

 

The previous meeting of the AWI public health project was held in November 2008 in Singapore. The next meeting will be held in June 2009 at Johns Hopkins University (an Invited Member of the Association of Pacific Rim Universities World Institute).

 

On February 23, prior to the public health project meetings, the Asia Health Policy Program also hosted the planning meetings for the AWI 2009 public health workshop, to be held at Johns Hopkins University June 24-26, 2009.

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Why do community-based education and social persuasion programs for promoting healthy lifestyle and preventing chronic disease sometimes fall short of our expectations? Why are population effects so difficult to engineer and why are they so ephemeral?

This research carried out at USC, the Claremont Graduate University, and collaborating institutions in China integrates across social, behavioral, and neurocognitive sciences to address those questions. We conclude tentatively that the answer to each of the questions may lie in individual and context variability relative to program response, and that in order to more fully address the question of prevention program response variability requires engagement and integration across several levels of science to consider the roles of social groupings, environmental selection and design, social influence processes, and brain biology.

What works in one social, cultural or organizational setting may not be so effective in another. What works for persons with certain genetic and experiential backgrounds may be totally ineffective for persons with different dispositional or personality characteristics. In a series of community/school based prevention trials carried out in markedly different southern California and central China settings, we have uncovered domains of consistent response, and other domains of substantial environment- and disposition-based response variability.

A social influences based smoking prevention program framed in collectivist values and objectives worked to prevent smoking in one cultural setting but not another. And an individualist framed social influences program worked in the setting where the collectivist program did not. But the characteristics of the particular settings, which defined program success or failure, were different from what conventional (e.g., cultural psychology) wisdom would have led us to expect. Furthermore, both within and across cultural settings, the same individual dispositional characteristics moderated or determined program effectiveness, again in ways not predicted by the common cultural and behavioral science wisdom.

In recent studies carried out both in China and the U.S. we have found affective decision deficits, with known neural underpinnings, to account for rapid progression to regular smoking and binge drinking. These deficits are akin to the dispositional characteristics found earlier to moderate prevention program effects. Subsequent brain imaging studies confirm the hypothesized regions of neural involvement. Together these findings hold promise for more effective – situation and phenotype specific – approaches to engendering and sustaining more optimal individual and population health behavior.

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Carl Anderson Johnson Dean & Professor of Community & Global Health Speaker Claremont Graduate School
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Why do community-based education and social persuasion programs for promoting healthy lifestyle and preventing chronic disease sometimes fall short of our expectations? Why are population effects so difficult to engineer and why are they so ephemeral? This research carried out at USC, the Claremont Graduate University, and collaborating institutions in China integrates across social, behavioral, and neurocognitive sciences to address those questions.

We conclude tentatively that the answer to each of the questions may lie in individual and context variability relative to program response, and that in order to more fully address the question of prevention program response variability requires engagement and integration across several levels of science to consider the roles of social groupings, environmental selection and design, social influence processes, and brain biology. What works in one social, cultural or organizational setting may not be so effective in another. What works for persons with certain genetic and experiential backgrounds may be totally ineffective for persons with different dispositional or personality characteristics. In a series of community/school based prevention trials carried out in markedly different southern California and central China settings, we have uncovered domains of consistent response, and other domains of substantial environment- and disposition-based response variability. A social influences based smoking prevention program framed in collectivist values and objectives worked to prevent smoking in one cultural setting but not another. And an individualist framed social influences program worked in the setting where the collectivist program did not. But the characteristics of the particular settings which defined program success or failure were different from what conventional (e.g., cultural psychology) wisdom would have led us to expect. Furthermore, both within and across cultural settings, the same individual dispositional characteristics moderated or determined program effectiveness, again in ways not predicted by the common cultural and behavioral science wisdom. In recent studies carried out both in China and the U.S. we have found affective decision deficits, with known neural underpinnings, to account for rapid progression to regular smoking and binge drinking. These deficits are akin to the dispositional characteristics found earlier to moderate prevention program effects. Subsequent brain imaging studies confirm the hypothesized regions of neural involvement. Together these findings hold promise for more effective – situation and phenotype specific – approaches to engendering and sustaining more optimal individual and population health behavior.

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Carl Anderson Johnson Dean & Professor Speaker School of Community & Global Health, Claremont Graduate School
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Karen Eggleston
Karen Eggleston
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Demographic change and long-term care in Japan, chronic non-communicable disease in China, national health insurance in South Korea, TB control in North Korea, pharmaceutical policy in the region and global safety in drug supply chains -- these are some of the topics explored in a new Stanford course: East Asian Studies 117 and 217,  "%course1%." Taught in fall 2008 by Karen Eggleston, Director of the Asia Health Policy Program, the course has enrolled students not only of East Asian studies but also other undergraduate majors as well as graduate students from the School of Education, School of Medicine, and Graduate School of Business.

 

The course discusses population health and healthcare systems in contemporary China, Japan, and Korea (north and south). Using primarily the lens of social science, especially health economics, participants analyze recent developments in East Asian health policy. In addition to seminar discussions, students engage in active exploration of selected topics outside the classroom, culminating in individual research papers and group projects that present findings in creative ways. For example, several students prepared an overview of health and healthcare in North Korea; three MBA students prepared a proposal for a healthcare venture in China (+PPT+ 1.2MB); and others attended related colloquia, interviewed researchers, and prepared summaries for public posting, such as the article on gender imbalance in China.

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Dr. Forsberg will present findings from studies in China and Vietnam and put those findings into a broader comparative perspective regarding the future role of the private sector in improving health service delivery and population health.

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Birger Carl Forsberg is a public health specialist and lecturer in International Health at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden from where he holds an MD and a PhD. He is also trained in economics and has health economics as one of his areas of work. Dr Forsberg has more than 20 years experience from international health from around 25 low- and middle-income countries as an adviser to bilateral donors and international organisations. Since 2002 he has been a consultant to the World Bank on public private sector collaboration in health. He is also coordinator since 2002 of a joint Harvard-Karolinska research programme called Private Sector Programme in Health (PSP). The programme has coordinated studies of the private health sector in five countries in Asia and Africa. In his talk Dr Forsberg will present findings from PSP studies in China and Vietnam and put those findings into a broader perspective on the future role of the private sector in health service delivery for increased access to health services and improved health.

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Birger Carl Forsberg, MD Private Sector Program in Health Coordinator Speaker Karolinska Institutet, Sweden
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BACKGROUND: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. METHODS: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. RESULTS: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69-82%) and 69% (60-77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S.

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Population Health Metrics
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Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Stout NK
Ortehndahl J
Kuntz KM
Goldie SJ
Salomon JA
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Past research has identified social and environmental causes and correlates of behaviors thought to be associated with obesity and weight gain among children and adolescents. Much less research has documented the efficacy of interventions designed to manipulate those presumed causes and correlates. These latter efforts have been inhibited by the predominant biomedical and social science problem-oriented research paradigm, emphasizing reductionist approaches to understanding etiologic mechanisms of diseases and risk factors. The implications of this problem-oriented approach are responsible for leaving many of the most important applied research questions unanswered, and for slowing efforts to prevent obesity and improve individual and population health. An alternative, and complementary, solution-oriented research paradigm is proposed, emphasizing experimental research to identify the causes of improved health. This subtle conceptual shift has significant implications for phrasing research questions, generating hypotheses, designing research studies, and making research results more relevant to policy and practice. The solution-oriented research paradigm encourages research with more immediate relevance to human health and a shortened cycle of discovery from the laboratory to the patient and population. Finally, a "litmus test" for evaluating research studies is proposed, to maximize the efficiency of the research enterprise and contributions to the promotion of health and the prevention and treatment of disease. A research study should only be performed if (1) you know what you will conclude from each possible result (whether positive, negative, or null); and (2) the result may change how you would intervene to address a clinical, policy, or public health problem.

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American Journal of Preventive Medicine
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Thomas Robinson
JR Sirard
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