The Folly of Technological Solutionism
Wallenberg Theater
Wallenberg Theater
Outside of China, the world now has more food insecure and nutrient deficient people than it had a decade ago, and the prevalence of obesity-related diabetes, high blood pressure and cardio-vascular diseases is increasing at very rapid rates. Expanded food production has done little to address the fact that between one-third and one-half of all deaths in children under five in developing countries are still related to malnutrition.
“With only three years away from the Millennium Development Goals deadline, this is a terrible track record,” said food and nutrition policy expert Per Pinstrup-Andersen at FSE's Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series last week.
Pinstrup-Andersen, the only economist to win the World Food Prize (the ultimate award in the food security field), has dedicated his career to understanding the linkages between food, nutrition, and agriculture. What is driving persistent food insecurity and malnutrition in a food abundant world?
Poor food supply management is part of the problem. According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 20-30% of food produced globally is lost every year. That’s enough to feed an additional 3-3.5 billion people.
Jatropha in Africa. Photo credit: Ton Rulkens/flickr.
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Biofuels production, such as jatropha in Africa, now competes with food for land, and climate change is already negatively impacting crop yields in regions straddling the equator—with major implications for food supply.
For low-income consumers in both the U.S. and developing countries increasing and more volatile food prices, such as those seen in 2007, are also driving food insecurity. Poor consumers respond by purchasing cheaper, less nutrient food, and less of it.
Nutritional value chain
Consensus is developing—at least rhetorically—among national policymakers and international organizations that investments in agricultural development must be accelerated. Members of the G8 and G20 have committed $20 billion in international economic support for such investments and some developing countries such as Ethiopia and Ghana are planning large new investments.
While most of these recent initiatives focus on expanded food supplies, there is an increasing understanding that merely making more food available will not assure better food security, nutrition, and health at the household and individual levels.
“It matters for health and nutrition how increasing food supplies are brought about and of what it consists,” said Pinstrup-Andersen. “We need to turn the food supply chain into a nutritional value chain.”
Diet diversity is incredibly important for good nutrition. Agricultural researchers and food production companies need to look at a number of different commodities, not just the major food staples, said Pinstrup-Andersen.
“The Green Revolution successfully increased the production of corn, rice, and wheat, increasing incomes for farmers, and lowering prices for consumers, but now it is time to invest in fruits, vegetables and biofortification to deal with micronutrient deficiency,” said Pintrup-Andersen.
Biofortification, the breeding of crops to increase their nutritional value, offers tremendous opportunity for dealing with malnutrition in the developing world, but is not widely available.
This is particularly important for areas in sub-Saharan Africa where between one and three and one and four people are short in calories, protein, and micronutrients. Obesity is actually going up in these countries with the introduction of cheap, processed, energy-dense foods (those high in sugar and fat) contributing to the diabetes epidemic.
Pathways to better health
Women hauling water to their gardens in Benin.
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The path to better health and nutrition must look beyond the availability of food at affordable prices, clean water, and good sanitation, and consider behavioral factors such as time constraints for women in low-income households.
“Field studies have shown time and time again that one of the main factors preventing women from providing themselves and their families with good nutrition is time,” explained Pinstrup-Andersen.
He told the story of a woman in Bolivia too burdened with farm and household responsibilities to take the time to breastfeed her six-month old daughter. Enhancing productivity in activities traditionally undertaken by women could be a key intervention to improving good health and nutrition at the household level.
Access is another issue. A household may be considered food secure, in that sufficient food may be available, but food may not be equally allocated in the household.
“If we focus on the most limiting constraint we can be successful,” said Pinstrup-Anderen. “But we must tailor our response to each case.”
For sub-Saharan Africa, this includes investments in rural infrastructure, roads, irrigation systems, micronutrient fertilizer, climate adaptation strategies, and other barriers holding back small farmers.
Fortunately, there has been a renewed attention to the importance of guiding food system activities towards improved health and nutrition. The Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), which facilitates the distribution of some of the G8 and G20 $20 billion commitments, prescribes that country proposals for funding of agricultural development projects must show a clear pathway from the proposed agricultural change to human nutrition.
“But it’s not going to be easy to implement good policies,” warned Pinstrup-Andersen. “There are few incentives in government for multidisciplinary problem solving. The economy is set up around silos and people are loyal to their silos. Agricultural and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities, policy, and analysis."
Incentives must change to encourage working across ministries and disciplines to identify the most important health and nutrition-related drivers of food systems, impact pathways, and policy and program interventions to find win-wins for positive health and nutrition.
Eran Bendavid, Assistant Professor of Medicine at Stanford University provides commentary on nutrition and food policy expert Per Pinstrup-Andersen's presentation and paper on "Food systems and human health and nutrition". The symposium and paper are part of the Center on Food Security and the Environment's Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium series.
The lost decades for China in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s look remarkably like the lost decades of Africa in the 1980s and 1990s. Poor land rights, weak incentives, incomplete markets and inappropriate investment portfolios. However, China burst out of its stagnation in the 1980s and has enjoyed three decades of remarkable growth. In this talk Rozelle examines the record of the development of China’s food economy and identifies the policies that helped generate the growth and transformation of agriculture. Incentives, markets and strategic investments by the state were key. Equally important, however, is what the state did not do. Policies that worked and those that failed (or those that were ignored) are addressed. Most importantly, Rozelle tries to take an objective, nuanced look at the lessons that might be learned and those that are not relevant for Africa. Many parts of Africa have experienced positive growth during the past decade. Rozelle examines if there are any lessons that might be helpful in turning ten positive years into several more decades of transformation.
Scott Rozelle (main speaker). Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of the Rural Education Action Program in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.
Alain de Janvry (commentator). Alain de Janvry is an economist working on international economic development, with expertise principally in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle-East, and the Indian subcontinent. Fields of work include poverty analysis, rural development, quantitative analysis of development policies, impact analysis of social programs, technological innovations in agriculture, and the management of common property resources. He has worked with many international development agencies, including FAO, IFAD, the World Bank, UNDP, ILO, the CGIAR, and the Inter-American Development Bank as well as foundations such as Ford, Rockefeller and Kellogg. His main objective in teaching, research, and work with development agencies is the promotion of human welfare, including understanding the determinants of poverty and analyzing successful approach to improve well-being and promote sustainability in resource use.
Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.
His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.
Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.
In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.
This study seeks to understand whether developing an innovative curriculum kit that will supplement health instruction for 3rd to 6th grade students and teachers in underdeveloped areas of rural China can also be delivered to parents in a set of pilot schools will: improve nutrition and the knowledge of teacher, students and parents about nutrition; reduce the level of anemia; and increase educational performance. The project will also study how to best deliver the message and keep parents accessing the information so they can act on it. The work will entail developing and examining the effectiveness (on the same outcome variables we investigate for the supplemental health class) of ways to use new technologies: mobile phones and postal mailings (for those without mobile phones) to follow up with parents and try to reinforce the message so they put it into action.
Walter P. Falcon Lounge
Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.
His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.
Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.
In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Christopher MacLennan is currently the Director General of Thematic and Sectoral Policy at the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). He is responsible for leading the Agency’s policy development related to various sectors of international development programming including democracy promotion, food security, economic growth, governance and human rights. Dr. MacLennan led the team that built the policy framework for the G8 Muskoka Initiative on Maternal, Newborn and Child Health in 2010 and represented Canada’s contribution to the 2012 G8 New Alliance on Food and Nutrition Security at Camp David. Previous to working at CIDA, Christopher has held various positions in the Government of Canada, including at the Privy Council Office, the arm of the Canadian government that directly supports the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Research interests include donor approaches to democratic assistance, international human rights development and federalism in multinational states. Dr. MacLennan holds a Ph.D. from the University of Western Ontario specializing in constitutional development and international human rights and has numerous publications including Toward the Charter: Canadians and the Demand for a National Bill of Rights, 1929-1960.
Reprinted with full permission from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
A detailed retrospective of the Green Revolution, its achievement and limits in terms of agricultural productivity improvement, and its broader impact at social, environmental, and economic levels is provided. Lessons learned and the strategic insights are reviewed as the world is preparing a “redux” version of the Green Revolution with more integrative environmental and social impact combined with agricultural and economic development. Core policy directions for Green Revolution 2.0 that enhance the spread and sustainable adoption of productivity enhancing technologies are specified.
Instilling healthy eating and exercise habits in children may help prevent obesity later in life. But which kids most need such obesity-prevention efforts? A recent study by Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert and colleagues at Stanford's School of Medicine showed that this question is harder to answer than it seems. The study, published earlier this year in Medical Decision Making, found that targeting obesity prevention to small children who are overweight might not be effective. That's because a higher-than-normal weight at age 5 provides an accurate predictor of adult obesity only 50 percent of the time.
Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine and core faculty member of Stanford Health Policy, discusses the problem.
What does your paper tell us about the recent focus on childhood and adolescent obesity measurements?
Our study has two take-home messages. First, while childhood obesity is an important problem, solving childhood obesity alone will not solve future adult obesity problems. Second, addressing future adult obesity will require broader societal measures — not simply interventions focused on obese children.
It used to be that no one worried much if a small child was chubby; the doctor might say, "It's baby fat, he'll grow out of it." How has that changed?
In fact, our data show that many children still do "grow out of it." But our findings suggest that it is difficult to predict whether this will happen for a specific child. Consequently, efforts to help obese children must be connected to broader efforts to create healthy diets and habits for all children.
Childhood obesity is concerning both because it presents increased health risks for individuals while they are children and also because of the fear that it will translate into serious adult obesity-related health issues. Our analyses show that targeting children who are already obese is unlikely to be sufficient in addressing broader public health challenges of obesity in later childhood, adolescence and adulthood.
Are there other more promising screening criteria for chronic adult obesity instead of using a child's weight?
It really depends on the purpose of screening. Researchers have identified a variety of characteristics to predict a child's future obesity status — for example, easily observed measures like the weight of a child's parent as well as more complex measures such as their size at birth and the rapidity with which they subsequently grew and gained weight.
The challenge is to have a measure that both does not miss a substantial fraction of those who become obese later on and also does not falsely predict obesity for a large number of those who do not become obese as adults. The trade-off between these two types of errors depends on the seriousness of health implications of obesity and the costs of treating health conditions once they arise, as well as the health and economic costs of delivering preventive interventions to people who are identified as being at risk of becoming obese regardless of whether they become obese in the future.
What are some of the best potential approaches for reducing childhood obesity if the entire population is being targeted?
Given that many health-related habits are developed in childhood, efforts to create healthy eating and exercise habits in children would seem to be beneficial. But for most potential interventions, we lack evidence of their widespread effectiveness over a long period of time. Do reductions in obesity persist from childhood into adulthood? Do they lead to measurable improvements in health outcomes? We do not have answers to these key questions.
Food, beverage or sugar taxes and other manipulations to food prices or availability may be effective, but may also have unintended harms and certainly come at the cost of curtailing personal choice. Re-engineering the built environment or nudging people with various behavioral/economic mechanisms have garnered attention though, again, widely generalizable evidence on them is lacking. The problem deserves continued creativity and ongoing evaluation and testing.
Your paper focuses on which obese children will become obese adults, yet we are seeing a growing number of children experiencing type-2 diabetes and other negative health consequences of being overweight before they're even out of their teen years. Is adult obesity the best endpoint to focus on?
Obesity-related conditions of childhood clearly should not be ignored. What we are concerned about is the sense that people were conflating good care for children to deal with their shorter-term health needs (i.e., childhood obesity management to deal with childhood health issues) and the belief that such an approach might largely solve the broader adult obesity issues. Addressing childhood obesity is still important even if it does not fix adult obesity and its deleterious health consequences.
Erin Digitale is the pediatrics writer for Stanford School of Medicine's Office of Communication and Public Affairs.
Effective water management is one key element of agricultural innovation and growth. This talk: outlines evolving and changing good global practices with respect to water management and agriculture; examines developments in both water and agriculture in Africa; and suggests avenues which might be explored in improving water management and increasing agricultural productivity in Africa.
is the Gordon McKay Professor of the Practice of Environmental Engineering and Environmental Health at Harvard University where he directs the Harvard Water Security Initiative. He teaches undergraduate and graduate courses on water management and development. In 2010 he was nominated for the Joseph R. Levenson Prize for exceptional teaching of Harvard undergraduates.
Briscoe's career has focused on the issues of water, other natural resources and economic development. He has worked as an engineer in the government water agencies of South Africa and Mozambique; as an epidemiologist at the Cholera Research Center in Bangladesh; and as a professor of water resources at the University of North Carolina. In his 20-year career at the World Bank, he held high-level technical positions, including Country Director for Brazil (the World Bank’s biggest borrower). Mr. Briscoe's role in shaping the governance and strategy of the World Bank is the subject of a chapter in the definitive recent history of the Bank, Sebastian Mallaby's The World's Banker (Penguin, 2006).
is an Assistant Professor of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Policy in the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. She is also an affiliate of Stanford University's Center on Food Security and the Environment (FSE), where she was previously a postdoctoral researcher. Jennifer is a physicist by training whose research focuses on simultaneously achieving global food security and mitigating climate change. She designs, implements, and evaluates technologies for poverty alleviation and agricultural adaptation, and she studies the links between energy poverty and food and nutrition security, the mechanisms by which energy services can help alleviate poverty, and the environmental impacts of food production and consumption. Much of Jennifer's current research focuses on the developing world.
Bechtel Conference Center
Jennifer Burney is a research affiliate at UC San Diego’s Policy Design and Evaluation Laboratory, an Affiliated scholar at the Center on Food Security & the Environment at Stanford University and member of the National Geographic Explorers family. Burney is a physicist by training whose research focuses on simultaneously achieving global food security and mitigating climate change. Her current interests center on the creation, implementation, and rigorous evaluation of technologies that impact human health and welfare. Jen earned her PhD in physics from Stanford.