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The Asia Health Policy Program at Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in collaboration with scholars from Stanford Health Policy's Center on Demography and Economics of Health and Aging, the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Next World Program, is soliciting papers for the third annual workshop on the economics of ageing titled Financing Longevity: The Economics of Pensions, Health Insurance, Long-term Care and Disability Insurance held at Stanford from April 24-25, 2017, and for a related special issue of the Journal of the Economics of Ageing.

The triumph of longevity can pose a challenge to the fiscal integrity of public and private pension systems and other social support programs disproportionately used by older adults. High-income countries offer lessons – frequently cautionary tales – for low- and middle-income countries about how to design social protection programs to be sustainable in the face of population ageing. Technological change and income inequality interact with population ageing to threaten the sustainability and perceived fairness of conventional financing for many social programs. Promoting longer working lives and savings for retirement are obvious policy priorities; but in many cases the fiscal challenges are even more acute for other social programs, such as insurance systems for medical care, long-term care, and disability. Reform of entitlement programs is also often politically difficult, further highlighting how important it is for developing countries putting in place comprehensive social security systems to take account of the macroeconomic implications of population ageing.

The objective of the workshop is to explore the economics of ageing from the perspective of sustainable financing for longer lives. The workshop will bring together researchers to present recent empirical and theoretical research on the economics of ageing with special (yet not exclusive) foci on the following topics:

  • Public and private roles in savings and retirement security
  • Living and working in an Age of Longevity: Lessons for Finance
  • Defined benefit, defined contribution, and innovations in design of pension programs
  • Intergenerational and equity implications of different financing mechanisms for pensions and social insurance
  • The impact of population aging on health insurance financing
  • Economic incentives of long-term care insurance and disability insurance systems
  • Precautionary savings and social protection system generosity
  • Elderly cognitive function and financial planning
  • Evaluation of policies aimed at increasing health and productivity of older adults
  • Population ageing and financing economic growth
  • Tax policies’ implications for capital deepening and investment in human capital
  • The relationship between population age structure and capital market returns
  • Evidence on policies designed to address disparities – gender, ethnic/racial, inter-regional, urban/rural – in old-age support
  • The political economy of reforming pension systems as well as health, long-term care and disability insurance programs

 

Submission for the workshop

Interested authors are invited to submit a 1-page abstract by Sept. 30, 2016, to Karen Eggleston at karene@stanford.edu. The authors of accepted abstracts will be notified by Oct. 15, 2016, and completed draft papers will be expected by April 1, 2017.

Economy-class travel and accommodation costs for one author of each accepted paper will be covered by the organizers.

Invited authors are expected to submit their paper to the Journal of the Economics of Ageing. A selection of these papers will (assuming successful completion of the review process) be published in a special issue.

 

Submission to the special issue

Authors (also those interested who are not attending the workshop) are invited to submit papers for the special issue in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing by Aug. 1, 2017. Submissions should be made online. Please select article type “SI Financing Longevity.”

 

About the Next World Program

The Next World Program is a joint initiative of Harvard University’s Program on the Global Demography of Aging, the WDA Forum, Stanford’s Asia Health Policy Program, and Fudan University’s Working Group on Comparative Ageing Societies. These institutions organize an annual workshop and a special issue in the Journal of the Economics of Ageing on an important economic theme related to ageing societies.

 

More information can be found in the PDF below.


 

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Beth Duff-Brown
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Stanford Health Policy's Marcella Alsan — an economist and professor of medicine — and her colleague, Marianne Wanamaker at the University of Tennessee, have published a working paper with the National Bureau of Economic Research about the correlation between the Tuskegee Study and the medical mistrust among African-American men today. This blog looks at the media coverage the paper has received.
 
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Beth Duff-Brown
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Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States, after lung cancer, yet many Americans are still loathe to be screened for the disease.

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force strongly recommended adults ages 50 to 75 to be screened for colon cancer and suggested adults 76 to 85  make individual decisions about whether to be screened, depending on their overall health and prior screening history. The recommendation and several accompanying editorials were published Wednesay in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

The independent body of national experts in prevention and evidence-based medicine emphasized colonoscopy is not the only valid test out there. There are multiple screening options available to the one-third of Americans over 50 who have never been screened.

We pose five key questions about the Task Force recommendations to Douglas K. Owens, the Henry J. Kaiser, Jr., Professor of Medicine at Stanford and director of the Center for Health Policy and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research. He is an author of the recommendation and was a member of the Task Force when the guidelines were developed.

What is the most significant finding of this final recommendation?

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. The good news is that evidence convincingly shows screening for colorectal cancer works. The Task Force strongly recommends screening adults 50 to 75 for colorectal cancer, as it reduces the risk of dying from the disease. Unfortunately, one-third of people 50 to 75 have never been screened, so we are missing an important opportunity to prevent deaths from colorectal cancer.

There are multiple screening options for colorectal cancer. What are they and how should individuals decide which is best for them?

What really matters is that people get screened. There are several options that are effective, so we recommend that people discuss the options with their clinician. There are direct visualization tests, like colonoscopy, and stool-based tests, like fecal immunochemical testing (FIT). Each test has different strengths and limitations, and people may prefer one approach over another. For example, colonoscopy can be done every 10 years, but FIT testing should be done every year. But the real message is, choose an approach in consultation with your clinician and get screened.

The Task Force found that once adults reach 76 years old, the benefits of screening become smaller and the potential for harm is greater. Why is this and how should older Americans determine which test is best for them?

We recommend individual decision making for patients 76 to 85. The benefits are smaller because a person’s chance of dying of other causes goes up as they get older. The harms are still small but increase with age, primarily because the risks of the potential complications of colonoscopy (bleeding, perforation, and infection) go up with age. Still, some people in this age group will benefit from screening. People most likely to benefit are those who have not been screened before, people who are healthy enough to undergo treatment for CRC should it be found, and people who do not have other diseases or conditions that limit their life expectancy substantially.

Owens explains the Task Force's recommendations to JAMA

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Headshot of Owens

 

JAMA Network | JAMA | USPSTF Recommendation Statement: Screening for Colorectal Cancer

 

African-Americans have the highest incidence of and mortality rates from colorectal cancer among all racial and ethnic subgroups. Why are African-Americans more susceptible and does this mean that the screening recommendations differ for them?

The Task Force recognizes the burden that colorectal cancer has on African-Americans, who are at higher risk of being diagnosed with and dying from the disease than other racial/ethnic subgroups. We don’t know why this is — more research is needed in this area. The Task Force did not find enough evidence to conclusively support that making a different recommendation specific to African-Americans would result in a greater net benefit for this population. So our recommendations are intended to apply to all racial/ethnic groups. More robust efforts are needed to ensure that at-risk populations actually receive the screening tests and the follow-up treatments or interventions they need, as people are dying unnecessarily from this disease.

What data did the Task Force use to come to its conclusions?

The Task Force commissioned a comprehensive systematic review of the available evidence on the benefits and harms of colorectal cancer screening. The Task Force also commissioned a modeling study from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) to help it better understand different screening strategies, such as the optimal age to start or stop screening, and the length of time between screenings. The evidence is convincing that screening reduces the risk of dying from colorectal cancer.

Who is at high risk for colorectal cancer?

The Task Force’s recommendation is for people at average risk of colorectal cancer.  People at high risk include those with a history of genetic predisposition to colorectal cancer (including people with Lynch syndrome and familial adenomatous polyposis), and people with a personal history of inflammatory bowel disease, a previous adenomatous polyp, or previous colorectal cancer.  Other groups have developed guidelines for people a high risk, including the U.S. Multisociety Task Force and the American Cancer Society.

How can precision health help colorectal cancer prevention?

The Task Force did not address how precision health might play a role in the future. However, we do know that although most cases of colorectal cancer are sporadic, with about 75 percent developing in average risk persons, there are inherited syndromes that increase the risk of colorectal cancer. The inherited familial syndromes, defined by a mutation in a known high-risk cancer susceptibility gene, that increase the risk of colorectal cancer include Lynch syndrome and familial adenomatous polyposis. Family history that is not linked to a known inherited risk syndrome is also a risk factor for colorectal cancer, with an average two- to four-fold increase in risk compared to those people who do not have a family history of colorectal cancer. Understanding more about the causes of this increase in risk is an important area for future research.   

What can help reduce one’s risk for colorectal cancer? 

The Task Force released a final recommendation in April 2016 on the use of aspirin to prevent colorectal cancer in people with an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease. For adults ages 50 to 59 years with a greater than 10 percent risk of a cardiovascular event, a life expectancy of at least 10 years, who are not at increased risk for bleeding, and who are willing to take a daily aspirin for at least 10 years, the Task Force recommends the daily use of low-dose aspirin. In this group, aspirin reduces both the risk of cardiovascular disease and the risk of colorectal cancer. It’s important to recognize that the Task Force’s recommendation on colorectal cancer screening is a complement to this recommendation, but neither is a replacement for the other. The Task Force is not suggesting that anyone should use aspirin in place of colorectal cancer screening. Colorectal cancer screening is an important, well-proven preventive intervention that reduces the risk of dying from colorectal cancer.

What symptoms usually present for patients with polyps or colorectal cancer?

It’s important to understand that people with colorectal cancer may have no symptoms whatsoever, and the Task Force’s recommendations are for people without symptoms. Symptoms can include blood in the stool or a change in bowel habits. If people have such symptoms, they should discuss them with their clinician.

What treatment options are available for people diagnosed with colorectal cancer? How have these options changed over time?

The Task Force did not examine treatment options in its final recommendations, as its focus is solely on preventive services such as screening. However, based on my professional experience I can attest that treatment depends on the extent of cancer and may involve surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy.

 

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Purpose

  • Many public health systems have struggled with the dual questions of: why the uptake rate of maternal health (MH) services is low among some subpopulations; and how to raise it. The purpose of this paper is to assess the uptake rate of a new set of MH services in poor rural areas of China.
 

Design/methodology/approach

  • The analysis is based on the survey responses of women’s representatives and village cadres from almost 1,000 villages in June 2012 as part of a wide-scale public health survey in Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces in the western part of China.
 

Findings

  • The authors find that the uptake rate of MH services (including in-hospital delivery, antenatal care visits and post-partum care visits) in poor rural areas of Western China are far below average in China, and that the rates vary across provinces and ethnic groups. The analyses demonstrate that distance, income, ethnicity and availability appear to be systematically correlated with low uptake rates of all MH services. Demand-side factors seem to be by far the most important sources of the differences between subpopulations. The authors also find that there is potential for creating a Conditional Cash Transfer program to improve the usage of MH services.
 

Originality/value

  • The authors believe that the results will contribute positively to the exploration of answers to the dual questions that many public health systems have struggled with: why the uptake rate of MH services is low among some subpopulations; and how to raise it.

 

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China Agricultural Economic Review
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Alexis Medina
Scott Rozelle
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Stanford University's Asian Liver Center (ALC) and the Global Business Group on Health jointly hosted the inaugural JoinJade for China Summit and Awards Ceremony at SCPKU on April 22, 2016.  29 major employers committed to a hepatitis B discrimination-free work environment were recognized at the event.  Lenovo, General Electric and IBM also participated in an employer panel to discuss key strategies for a discrimination-free work environment and next steps.

 

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JoinJade for China is a joint initiative involving global organizations including the ALC in the U.S. and China, Global Business Group on Health, IBM, General Electric, Intel, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and HP Inc.  The initiative focuses on building fully inclusive workplaces free from hepatitis B discrimination.  

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joinjade award

 

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The ALC at Stanford University is the first non-profit organization in the U.S. that addresses the disproportionately high rates of chronic hepatitis B infection and liver cancer in Asians and Asian Americans.  Founded in 1996, the center addresses the gap in the fight against hepatitis B through a four-pronged approach of collaboration, advocacy, research, and education and outreach (CARE).  The ultimate goal of the ALC is to eliminate the transmission and stigma of hepatitis B and reduce deaths from liver cancer and liver disease caused by chronic hepatitis B.

 

Photos courtesy of Stanford University's Asian Liver Center

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The U.S. government has invested $1.4 billion in HIV prevention programs that promote sexual abstinence and marital fidelity, but there is no evidence that these programs have been effective at changing sexual behavior and reducing HIV risk, according to a new Stanford University School of Medicine study.

Since 2004, the U.S. President’s Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief, known as PEPFAR, has supported local initiatives that encourage men and women to limit their number of sexual partners and delay their first sexual experience and, in the process, help to reduce the number of teen pregnancies. However, in a study of nearly 500,000 individuals in 22 countries, the researchers could not find any evidence that these initiatives had an impact on changing individual behavior.

Although PEPFAR has been gradually reducing its support for abstinence and fidelity programs, the researchers suggest that the remaining $50 million or so in annual funding for such programs could have greater health benefits if spent on effective HIV prevention methods. Their findings were published online May 2 and in the May issue of Health Affairs.

“Overall we were not able to detect any population-level benefit from this program,” said Nathan Lo, a Stanford MD/PhD student and lead author of the study. “We did not detect any effect of PEPFAR funding on the number of sexual partners or upon the age of sexual intercourse. And we did not detect any effect on the proportion of teen pregnancy.

“We believe funding should be considered for programs that have a stronger evidence basis,” he added.

A Human Cost

Senior author Eran Bendavid, MD, said the ineffective use of these funds has a human cost because it diverts money away from other valuable, risk-reduction efforts, such as male circumcision and methods to prevent transmission from mothers to their children.

“Spending money and having no effect is a pretty costly thing because the money could be used elsewhere to save lives,” said Bendavid, an assistant professor of medicine at Stanford and a core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy.

PEPFAR was launched in 2004 by President George W. Bush with a five-year, $15 billion investment in global AIDS treatment and prevention in 15 countries. The program has had some demonstrated success: A 2012 study by Bendavid showed that it had reduced mortality rates and saved 740,000 lives in nine of the targeted countries between 2004 and 2008.

However, the program’s initial requirement that one-third of the prevention funds be dedicated to abstinence and “be faithful” programs has been highly controversial. Critics questioned whether this approach could work and argued that focusing only on these methods would deprive people of information on other potentially lifesaving options, such as condom use, male circumcision and ways to prevent mother-to-child transmission, and divert resources from these and other proven prevention measures.

Abstinence, Faithfulness Funding Continues

In 2008, when President Barack Obama came into office, the one-third requirement was eliminated, but U.S. funds continued to flow to abstinence and “be faithful” programs, albeit at lower levels. In 2008, $260 million was committed to these programs, but by 2013 by that figure had fallen to $45 million.

Spending money and having no effect is a pretty costly thing because the money could be used elsewhere to save lives.

Although PEPFAR continues to fund abstinence and faithfulness programs as part of its broader behavior-based prevention efforts, there is no routine evaluation of the success of these programs. “We hope our work will emphasize the difficulty in changing sexual behavior and the need to measure the impact of these programs if they are going to continue to be funded,” Lo said.

While many in the medical community were critical of the abstinence-fidelity component, no one had ever analyzed its real-world impact, Lo said. When he presented the results of the study in February at the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infection, he received rousing applause from the scientists in the audience, some of whom came to the microphone to congratulate him on the work.

To measure the program’s effectiveness, Lo and his colleagues used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, a detailed database with individual and household statistics related to population, health, HIV and nutrition. The scientists reviewed the records of nearly 500,000 men and women in 14 of the PEPFAR-targeted countries in sub-Saharan Africa that received funds for abstinence-fidelity programs and eight non-PEPFAR nations in the region. They compared changes in risk behaviors between individuals who were living in countries with U.S.-funded programs and those who were not.

The scientists included data from 1998 through 2013 so they could measure changes before and after the program began. They also controlled for country differences, including gross domestic product, HIV prevalence and contraceptive prevalence, and for individuals’ ages, education, whether they lived in an urban or rural environment, and wealth. All of the individuals in the study were younger than 30.

Number of Sexual Partners

In one measure, the scientists looked at the number of sexual partners reported by individuals in the previous year. Among the 345,000 women studied, they found essentially no difference in the number of sexual partners among those living in PEPFAR-supported countries compared with those living in areas not reached by PEPFAR programs. The same was true for the more than 132,000 men in the study.

Changing sexual behavior is not an easy thing. These are very personal decisions.

The researchers also looked at the age of first sexual intercourse among 178,000 women and more than 71,000 men. Among women, they found a slightly later age of intercourse among women living in PEPFAR countries versus those in non-PEPFAR countries, but the difference was slight — fewer than four months — and not statistically significant. Again, no difference was found among the men.

Finally, they examined teenage pregnancy rates among a total of 27,000 women in both PEPFAR-funded and nonfunded countries and found no difference in rates between the two.

Bendavid noted that, in any setting, it is difficult to change sexual behavior. For instance, a 2012 federal Centers for Disease Control analysis of U.S.-based abstinence programs found they had little impact in altering high-risk sexual practices in this country.

“Changing sexual behavior is not an easy thing,” Bendavid said. “These are very personal decisions. When individuals make decisions about sex, they are not typically thinking about the billboard they may have seen or the guy who came by the village and said they should wait until marriage. Behavioral change is much more complicated than that.”

Level of Education

The one factor that the researchers found to be clearly related to sexual behavior, particularly in women, was education level. Women with at least a primary school education had much lower rates of high-risk sexual behavior than those with no formal education, they found.

“One would expect that women who are educated have more agency and the means to know what behaviors are high-risk,” Bendavid said. “We found a pretty strong association.”

The researchers concluded that the “study contributes to the growing body of evidence that abstinence and faithfulness campaigns may not reduce high-risk sexual behaviors and supports the importance of investing in alternative evidence-based programs for HIV prevention in the developing world.”

The authors noted that PEPFAR representatives have been open to discussing these findings and the implications for funding decisions regarding HIV prevention programs.

Stanford medical student Anita Lowe was also a co-author of the study.

The study was funded by the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation and Stanford’s Center on the Demography and Economics of Health and Aging.

Previously: PEPFAR has saved lives – and not just from HIV/AIDS, Stanford study finds
 

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Americans spent $3 trillion on health care in 2014, or about $9,523 per person. That’s up 5.3 percent from the previous year. That increase isn’t expected to slow down; for about the next decade, the U.S. government  expects spending to grow 5.8 percent on average each year.

As policymakers look for ways to cut down this spending, one idea gaining traction is to incentivize consumer-directed health plans (CDHP). These high-deductible, low-cost plans are already growing in popularity. About 20 percent of people who are covered by employer-sponsored health insurance are enrolled in some type of CDHP.

In theory, CDHPs would reduce health-care costs because consumers would choose less expensive health care when they pay for it themselves. But does that theory pan out in practice? M. Kate Bundorf, an associate professor of political economy, examines the benefits — and the trouble spots. Bundorf is also a core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy.

How do consumer-directed health plans work?

A CDHP is one type of plan offered by an insurance company. The main idea behind CDHPs was, instead of putting decisions about cost and quality tradeoffs in the hands of the health plan, we’ll put them in the hands of the consumers. There are three features that are generally associated (with CDHPs): One is a relatively high deductible, the second is some type of a personal spending account, and the third is information tools for people to compare costs and quality when they’re choosing care.

People can make decisions that reflect their own preferences. Think about a person choosing between two different drugs to treat their condition. One drug is less expensive, but it has some side effects. Some people would be willing to pay the higher price for the drug without the side effects, and some people would prefer to spend less and be fine with the side effects. People might be very different in terms of the tradeoffs they’d like to make.

Read the full Q&A with the Stanford Graduate School of Buisness.
 
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Please note: All research in progress seminars are off-the-record. Any information about methodology and/or results are embargoed until publication.

Summary

In this talk I’ll provide a history of the breast cancer screening controversies and discuss the new guidelines from the US Preventive Services Task Force and the American Cancer Society.

Encina Commons, Room 201 
615 Crothers Way Stanford, CA 94305-6006 

Executive Assistant: Soomin Li, soominli@stanford.edu
Phone: (650) 725-9911

(650) 723-0933 (650) 723-1919
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Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor
Professor, Health Policy
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor, Management Science & Engineering (by courtesy)
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MD, MS

Douglas K. Owens is the Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor, Chair of the Department of Health Policy in the Stanford University School of Medicine and Director of the Center for Health Policy (CHP) in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). He is a general internist, a Professor of Management Science and Engineering (by courtesy), at Stanford University; and a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Owens' research includes the application of decision theory to clinical and health policy problems; clinical decision making; methods for developing clinical guidelines; decision support; comparative effectiveness; modeling substance use and infectious diseases; cardiovascular disease; patient-centered decision making; assessing the value of health care services, including cost-effectiveness analysis; quality of care; and evidence synthesis.

Owens chaired the Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians for four years. The guideline committee develops clinical guidelines that are used widely and are published regularly in the Annals of Internal Medicine. He was a member and then Vice-Chair and Chair of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, which develops national guidelines on preventive care, including guidelines for screening for breast, colorectal, prostate, and lung cancer. He has helped lead the development of more than 50 national guidelines on treatment and prevention. He also was a member of the Second Panel on Cost Effectiveness in Health and Medicine, which developed guidelines for the conduct of cost-effectiveness analyses.

Owens also directed the Stanford-UCSF Evidence-based Practice Center. He co-directs the Stanford Health Services Research Program, and previously directed the VA Physician Fellowship in Health Services Research, and the VA Postdoctoral Informatics Fellowship Program.

Owens received a BS and an MS from Stanford University, and an MD from the University of California-San Francisco. He completed a residency in internal medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and a fellowship in health research and policy at Stanford. Owens is a past-President of the Society for Medical Decision Making. He received the VA Undersecretary’s Award for Outstanding Achievement in Health Services Research, and the Eisenberg Award for Leadership in Medical Decision Making from the Society for Medical Decision Making. Owens also received a MERIT award from the National Institutes on Drug Abuse to study HIV, HCV, and the opioid epidemic. He was elected to the American Society for Clinical Investigation (ASCI) and the Association of American Physicians (AAP.)

Chair, Department of Health Policy, School of Medicine
Director, Center for Health Policy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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More than fifty experts met in Xi’an, China, for an international academic conference on demographic change and social development last week. Several scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) spoke at the conference, including Karen Eggleston, Marcus Feldman, Jean Oi and Scott Rozelle.

The conference marked the 120th anniversary of Xi’an Jiaotong University’s founding and more than three decades of collaboration with Stanford scholars. Researchers at Xi’an Jiaotong University’s Institute for Population and Development Studies collaborate on policy-relevant research and educational activities with Stanford faculty at FSI as well as the Morrison Institute and Woods Institute.

For more information on FSI’s work in the areas of global health and medicine, please visit this page and the Asia Health Policy Program website.

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