Comparative effectiveness research
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The decreasing effectiveness of antimicrobial agents is a global public health threat, yet risk factors for community-acquired antimicrobial resistance (CA-AMR) in low-income settings have not been clearly elucidated. Our aim was to identify risk factors for CA-AMR with extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)–producing organisms among urban-dwelling women in India. We collected microbiological and survey data in an observational study of primigravidae women in a public hospital in Hyderabad, India. We analyzed the data using multivariate logistic and linear regression and found that 7% of 1,836 women had bacteriuria; 48% of isolates were ESBL-producing organisms. Women in the bottom 50th percentile of income distribution were more likely to have bacteriuria (adjusted odds ratio 1.44, 95% CI 0.99–2.10) and significantly more likely to have bacteriuria with ESBL-producing organisms (adjusted odds ratio 2.04, 95% CI 1.17–3.54). Nonparametric analyses demonstrated a negative relationship between the prevalence of ESBL and income.

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Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
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Nagamani Kammili
Jyothi Lakshmi
Anlu Xing
Afia Khan
Manisha Rani
Prasanthi Kolli
Douglas K. Owens
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The adjusted mortality for care teams with anesthesiologist assistants was 1.6% (95% CI, 1.4 to 1.8) versus 1.7% for care teams with nurse anesthetists (95% CI, 1.7 to 1.7; difference −0.08; 95% CI, −0.3 to 0.1; P = 0.47). Compared to care teams with nurse anesthetists, care teams with anesthesiologist assistants were associated with non–statistically significant decreases in length of stay (−0.009 days; 95% CI, −0.1 to 0.1; P = 0.89) and medical spending (−$56; 95% CI, −334 to 223; P = 0.70). In their paper, the authors concluded that the specific composition of the anesthesia care team was not associated with any significant differences in mortality, length of stay, or inpatient spending.

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The Journal of the American Society of Anesthesiologists
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Thomas R. Miller
Jasmin Moshfegh
Laurence C. Baker
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In this study published in the American Journal of Managed Care, the authors found that premiums for ACA Marketplace plans were higher in rating areas in which physician, hospital, and insurance markets were less competitive. An increase from the 10th to the 90th percentile of physician concentration and hospital concentration was associated with increases of $393 and $189, respectively, in annual premiums for the Silver plan with the second lowest cost. A similar increase in the number of insurers was associated with a $421 decrease in premiums. Physician–hospital integration was not significantly associated with premiums.

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The American Journal of Managed Care
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Maria Polyakova
Laurence C. Baker
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We study the effect of diversity in the physician workforce on the demand for preventive care among African-American men. Black men have the lowest life expectancy of any major demographic group in the U.S., and much of the disadvantage is due to chronic diseases which are amenable to primary and secondary prevention. In a field experiment in Oakland, California, we randomize black men to black or non-black male medical doctors and to incentives for one of the five offered preventives — the flu vaccine. We use a two-stage design, measuring decisions about cardiovascular screening and the flu vaccine before (ex ante) and after (ex post) meeting their assigned doctor. Black men select a similar number of preventives in the ex-ante stage, but are much more likely to select every preventive service, particularly invasive services, once meeting with a doctor who is the same race. The effects are most pronounced for men who mistrust the medical system and for those who experienced greater hassle costs associated with their visit. Our findings suggest black doctors could help reduce cardiovascular mortality by 16 deaths per 100,000 per year — leading to a 19% reduction in the black-white male gap in cardiovascular mortality.

 

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Owen Garrick
Grant Graziani
Owen Garrick
Grant Graziani
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24787
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Beth Duff-Brown
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African-American doctors could help reduce cardiovascular mortality among black men by 19 percent — if there was more racial diversity among physicians, according to a new study led by Stanford Health Policy’s Marcella Alsan.

After conducting a randomized clinical trial among 1,300 black men in Oakland, the researchers found that the men sought more preventive services after they were randomly seen by black doctors for a free health-care screening compared to non-black doctors.

“We found that, once African-American men were at the clinic, even though all services were free, those assigned to a black doctor took up more services,” such as flu shots and diabetes and cholesterol screenings, said Alsan, an economist and infectious disease physician who focuses on  health and socioeconomic disparities here at home and around the world.

“It was surprising to see the results,” said Alsan, an associate professor of medicine at Stanford Medicine, a faculty fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and an investigator at the VA Palo Alto Health Care System. “Prior to doing the study, we really were not sure if there would be any effect, much less the magnitude. The signal in our data ended up being quite strong.”

Those signals include the men were 29 percent more likely to talk with black doctors about other health problems and seeking more invasive screenings that likely required more trust in the person providing the service. They found subjects assigned to black doctors increased their uptake of diabetes and cholesterol screenings by 47 percent and 72 percent, respectively.

The researchers calculated that black doctors could reduce cardiovascular mortality by 16 deaths per 100,000 per year, accounting for 19 percent of the black-white gap in cardiovascular-related deaths. They believe that the results would be even larger if extrapolated to other leading causes of death that are amenable to prevention, such as cancer and HIV/AIDS. 

“I was definitely surprised,” said Owen Garrick, president and COO of Bridge Clinical Research, an Oakland-based organization that helps clinical researchers find patients from targeted ethnic groups. “If you ask most people, they feel that there is some impact of black men seeing black doctors — but it has never been quantified using an experimental design.”

Alsan and Garrick, along with U.C. Berkeley graduate student Grant Graziani, published their findings in this working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Garrick, himself an African-American physician, said black doctors tend to present themselves in a manner that puts a black patient at ease, making him more willing to open up and agree to certain care. “The black doctor might explain the medical services in a way that the black patient more clearly understands.”

Garrick called the findings “astounding,” but he warned that increasing the number of black doctors and getting black men to routinely see them are no small tasks.

There is a yawning gap between white physicians and those of color. While African-Americans comprise about 13 percent of the population, only 4 percent of physicians and less than 6 percent of medical school graduates are black, according to the study.

This is compounded by African-American men having the lowest life-expectancy in the country, due to lack of health insurance, lower socioeconomic status and structural racism. 

And there remains a distrust of the U.S. healthcare system at least partially attributed to the infamous Tuskegee study that began in 1932, when the U.S. Public Health Service began following about 600 African-American men in Tuskegee, Alabama. Some two-thirds of the men had syphilis, and USPHS declined to inform those afflicted by the disease. Even after penicillin became the standard of care for syphilis treatment in the mid-1940s, the USPHS continued to withhold treatment. The study was finally halted when a whistleblower went to the press in 1972.

Alsan— with her colleague Marianne Wanamaker at the University of Tennessee — published a study in The Quarterly Journal of Economics in February that found the 1972 Tuskegee study revelation was correlated with a reduction in health-seeking behavior and increases in medical mistrust and mortality among African-American men.

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The men who participated in the recent study were recruited from barbershops and flea markets in Oakland, a city known for its diversity, yet plagued by a 20 percent rate of poverty.

Field officers —including minority and low-income pre-med students from around the Bay Area — approached men to enroll in the study. After obtaining written consent, the men were given a short survey about socio-demographics, health care and mistrust. For completing the survey, the men received a voucher with up to $25 for their haircut or, in the flea market, a cash incentive.

The men were also given a coupon to receive a free health-care screening for blood pressure, BMI, cholesterol and diabetes at the clinic where the Stanford team operated on Saturdays in the fall and winter of 2017-2018. The patients who did not have transport to the clinic were given free rides courtesy of Uber. Attendance at the clinic was encouraged with another $50 incentive.

Subjects and the 14 participating doctors were told that they were taking part in a Stanford study designed to improve preventive health-care for African-American men.

On top of the significant increases in patients who agreed to diabetes or cholesterol screenings if suggested by a black doctor, the researchers found that the men were 56 percent more likely to get a flu vaccine if randomized to one of the African-American doctors.

The results suggested the more invasive the test, the greater the advantage of being assigned a black doctor. And the findings were even stronger among subjects who had a high mistrust of the medical system as well as those who had limited prior experience with routine medical care.

“In curative care, the patient feels ill and then may seek out medical care to fix the problem,” Alsan said. “But in preventive care, the patient may feel just fine — but must trust the doctor when he is told that certain measures must be taken to safeguard health.” 

The policy implications would suggest that medical schools need to open the pipeline to students from diverse backgrounds who are training for health-care professionals. 

Garrick recommends exposing more young people of color to the field of medicine and helping them to become more competitive applicants through tutoring and interview prep.

“And you need advocates,” he said. “Since much of the medical school selection process is subjective, you need to get people on the selection committees who will relate and see the potential of black applicants as much as people relate to other applicants.”

Some links to other media outlets that have written about this research: 

The New York Times

Harvard Business Review

The Daily Mail

ColorLines

 

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Beth Duff-Brown
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Prostate cancer is the second leading cause of death among American men, after heart disease.

Yet ever since the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening was approved by the FDA in 1986, there has been a debate in the health-care community about the efficacy of the test. The American Urological Association had until 2013 recommended routine testing but did an about-face not long after the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended against regular screening.

The Task Force — and independent, volunteer panel of national experts in prevention and evidence-based medicine — concluded in 2012 that there was “moderate certainty” the benefits of the screening did not outweigh the potential harms. The biggest risks included a false positive that leads to a biopsy that could cause infection, pain and bleeding, as well as surgery and radiation that can provoke impotence or problems with the bladder or bowels.

But the Task Force is now recommending that men aged 55 to 69 talk to their physicians about whether to get the test. New evidence indicates screening in this age group can reduce the risk of metastatic cancer and the chance of dying from prostate cancer.

“Prostate cancer is one of the most common cancers to affect men and the decision whether to be screened is complex,” said Task Force vice chair Alex H. Krist, MD. “Men should discuss the benefits and harms of screening with their doctor, so they can make the best choice for themselves based on their values and individual circumstances.”

Stanford Health Policy’s Douglas K. Owens, director of the Center for Health Policy and the Center for Primary Care Outcomes and Research, said there is also new information on active surveillance — a way of monitoring prostate cancer that may allow some men with low-risk prostate cancers to delay or, in some cases, avoid treatment with radiation or surgery.

Active surveillance, he said, has become a more common choice for men with lower-risk prostate cancer over the past several years and may reduce the chance of overtreatment.

“For men who are more interested in the small potential benefit and willing to accept the potential harms, screening may be the right choice for them,” said Owens, MD, a professor at Stanford Medicine and another vice chair of the Task Force. “Men who place more value on avoiding the potential harms may choose not to be screened.”

The Task Force still recommends men 70 and older do not get the test as a matter of routine.

The panel released its recommendation on the Task Force website on May 8. The final recommendation and evidence reviews were published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), along with several editorials.

The guidelines issued by the 16-member Task Force impact virtually every primary care patient and practice in the United States. They make letter grade recommendations and have now bumped the “D” against screening up to a “C,” which recommends screening decisions for prostate cancer be based on professional judgment and patient preference. 

The new recommendation now aligns with those of the American Cancer Society and the American Urological Association. Peter R. Carroll, MD, writes in an accompanying editorial in JAMA that the final recommendation by the Task Force “has restarted a national discussion on prostate cancer early detection.”

“The Task Force deserves credit for this more balanced, fairer approach,” said Carroll, a professor and chair of the Department of Urology at the University of California, San Francisco, who opposed the “D” grade the Task Force had given PSA screens in 2012. “The message now is not ‘no screening,’ but ‘smarter screening,’ preserving benefits and reducing harms.”

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The recommendation also addresses men who are at increased risk, particularly African-American men and patients with a family history of prostate cancer.

“For African-American men or those with a family history of prostate cancer, informing these men of their higher risk for developing prostate cancer should be a part of the conversation,” wrote two researchers from the Cleveland Clinic in another accompanying JAMA editorial.

“The U.S. health care delivery system needs a structure that not only allows, but encourages, a space for physicians and patients to engage in meaningful conversations where shared decision making has the opportunity to take place,” wrote Anita D. Misra-Herbert, MD, and Michael W. Kattan, PhD. “What the updated USPSTF recommendations for prostate cancer screening are asking of physicians is to take time to pause, explain what is currently known, understand patient preferences, and make the screening decision together.”

 

 

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As global health assistance for developing countries dwindles, a Stanford student working on her PhD in health policy has developed a novel formula to help donors make more informed decisions about where their dollars should go.

Donors have typically relied predominately on gross national income (GNI) per capita to determine aid allocations. But using GNI is problematic because it effectively penalizes economic growth. It also fails to capture contextual nuances important to channeling aid effectively and efficiently.

So Tara Templin, a first-year Stanford PhD student specializing in health economics, and her Harvard colleague Annie Haakenstad, have developed a framework that estimates funding based on needed resources, expected spending and potential spending into 2030. They believe the more flexible model makes it adaptable for use by governments, donors and policymakers.

“We've observed development assistance for health growth attenuate over the last seven years,” said Templin, who was a research fellow at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation before coming to Stanford. “There are difficult trade-offs, and this entails honing in on the specific challenges and countries most in need.”

Their research published in the journal Health Policy and Planning outlines how their “financing gaps framework” can be adapted to short- or long-run time frames, between or within countries.

“Depending on donor preferences, the framework can be deployed to incentivize local investments in health, ensuring the long-term sustainability of health systems in low- and middle-income countries, while also furnishing international support for progress toward global health goals,” write the authors, who also are Stephen Lim of the University of Washington, Jesse B. Bump of Harvard and Joseph Dieleman, also at the University of Washington.

The authors developed a case study of child health to test out their framework. It shows that priorities vary substantially when using their results as compared to focusing mainly on GNI per capita or child mortality.

The case study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study, Financing Global Health 2015, the WHO Global Health Observatory and National Health Accounts. Funding flows are anchored to progress toward the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals’ target for reductions in the death rates of children under 5. More than six million children die each year before their fifth birthday, so the United Nations set a goal to reduce under-5 mortality to at least 25 per 1,000 live births.

To build their child health case study, the authors relied on a 2015 study that estimated the average cost per child-life saved is $4,205 in low-income countries, $6,496 in lower-middle income countries and $10,016 in upper-middle countries.

The framework considers three concepts. First, expected government spending is constructed from national health accounts, which are standardized financial reports from countries around the world. Second, ability to pay is estimated by looking at countries with similar levels of economic development and looking at associations with country investment in the health sector. Lastly, needed investment considers a health target, the country’s current health burden, and average costs to save children’s lives in each country.

“Our focus is on the gap between the resources needed to reach critical health targets and domestic health spending,” the authors wrote. “We highlight two facets of domestic health resources—expected spending and potential spending—as critical. While donor preferences may vary, basing aid allocation on expected or existing spending levels incentivizes countries to spend less on health. We therefore propose the use of potential spending, which is a measure of a country’s ability to pay, as the domestic resource benchmark.”

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Instead of the gap between expected spending and need, their framework focuses on the gap between potential spending and the health resources needed to meet global health targets. In the framework, policymakers can choose which gap they want to target, since this decision can involve many factors.

“By focusing on that gap, donors can catalyze sustained domestic spending while also addressing the resource needs critical to reaching international health goals,” they wrote.

They then looked at 10 countries with the most need for additional child health resources. The gap between expected spending and potential spending was highest in Afghanistan, at 79 percent, and lowest in Cameroon, where expected spending exceeded potential spending.

“Fifty years ago, GNI was the best proxy for countries’ ability to finance their own development and health,” the authors wrote.

But today, more empirical data and technology are available, allowing donors to incorporate a broader set of health financing measures into their decision-making process.

“The flexible but targeted nature of our framework is critical in the current era of global health financing,” said Haakenstad, the lead author. “Our framework helps to ensure the poor and disadvantaged, the majority of which now reside in middle-income countries, are reached by development assistance and other public financing. This funding is critical to reducing death and disability and reaching global targets in health.”

 

The authors’ research was supported by the Welcome Trust (099114/Z/12/Z).

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Maya Rossin-Slater uses her PhD in economics to analyze large-scale data on population health and socioeconomic outcomes to help inform policies targeting families with children, especially those who are disadvantaged or poor.

Rossin-Slater, an assistant professor at the Department of Health Research and Policy at Stanford Medicine, is the newest core faculty member at Stanford Health Policy. Prior to coming to Stanford this summer, she was an assistant professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara for four years after receiving her PhD at Columbia University. Her research centers on public policies and their impacts on the health and well-being of families.She asks complex questions, often finding the answers in large administrative databases. Specializing in using “natural experiment” methods, Rossin-Slater tries to separate causation from correlation.

How do child-support mandates impact the relationship between parents and children? Does high-quality preschool compensate for early life health disadvantages? What are the long-term impacts of early childhood exposure to air pollution once they become adults?

“To me, it’s important to do this kind of research that can inform real-world policies, particularly for less advantaged families,” said Rossin-Slater, who is also a faculty fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic and Policy Research (SIEPR) and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

“We live in a world with limited resources and we need to understand how to best allocate them,” she said. “So I think there is value in providing rigorous causal evidence on the effectiveness of various tools and policies that impact the less advantaged so that we can get the highest return on public spending as well as the highest potential for improving the outcomes of those at the very bottom.”

In a paper published in the Journal of Public Economics, Rossin-Slater talks about the growing body of evidence that suggests in-utero conditions and health at birth make a difference in later-life well-being. She found that the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) is one of the most cost-effective and successful programs to improve health at birth for children of disadvantaged mothers.

“The estimated effects are the strongest for mothers with a high school education or less, who are most likely eligible for WIC services,” she wrote in the paper, which was cited by the White House blog under President Barack Obama.

Paid Family Leave

When Mark Zuckerberg announced he would take a two-month paternity leave when his daughter was born in 2015, the Facebook co-founder was taking advantage of his own company’s policy, which grants employees up to four months leave for all new parents.

“Studies show that when working parents take time to be with their newborns, outcomes are better for the children and families,” Zuckerberg wrote on his Facebook page.

This prompted many media outlets to turn to a co-authored study with Rossin-Slater, which found that 46 percent more men have taken time off to help take care of their newborns since California made paid family leave (PFL) law in 2004.

“The increase in paternal leave-taking may also have important implications for addressing the gender wage gap,” the authors wrote. “Our results suggest that a gender-neutral PFL policy can increase the amount of time fathers of newborns spend at home—including the time they spend at home while the mothers work—and may therefore be seen as one way to promote gender equality.”

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Here at Stanford, Rossin-Slater is using databases in the United States, Denmark and Sweden to continue her research on public policies (including paid family leave), as well as looking at how prenatal and early childhood factors impact lifelong outcomes. Does inequality and the stress of poverty in pregnancy, for example, get transmitted across generations?

In a forthcoming paper in the American Economic Review Rossin-Slater and her co-author, Stanford economist Petra Persson, found that prenatal exposure to maternal stress due to deaths in the family could have lasting consequences for the mental health of the children.

They examined nearly 300,000 births in Sweden between 1973 and 2011, in which a relative of the mother died either before her due date or in her child’s first year of life. They found that children who were in the womb when a relative died were 25 percent more likely to take medication for ADHD than those who were infants when the relative died. And those children were 13 percent more likely to take prescription drugs for anxiety once they became adults.

Take those results and one can imagine that the stress of living in poverty during pregnancy might be compounded over generations in that same disadvantaged family.

“This would imply that policies aiming to alleviate stress associated with economic disadvantage may help break the cycle of poverty,” Rossin-Slater and Persson told The Washington Post for a story on their research.

In new projects, Rossin-Slater is now studying the effects of reforms in the WIC program in California on maternal and child health, as well as the impacts of paternity leave on maternal mental health and child outcomes in Sweden. She continues using research designs that pay careful attention to establishing causality and working with large administrative databases.

“I believe in and enjoy working with data because it provides an opportunity to learn about how real-world policies actually work,” she said. “I have the privilege of being able to set my own research questions and to use my economic training and newly available data to try to find at least some answers. My hope is that these answers can be useful for creating better and more effective policies.”

 

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Design learning and journey maps are all the rage here at Stanford University and in Silicon Valley. So why not apply it to health systems to reduce diagnostic errors?

That’s what Stanford Health Policy’s Kathryn M. McDonald is trying to do: Map the journey of worrisome scenarios that keep clinicians up at night, and then plant design seeds that might just help those clinicians get back to sleep.

One of those real-world scenarios involves a preventable diagnostic error made as a high-risk condition unfolds across multiple visits to the doctor. Missed cancer diagnoses, for example, are the leading cause for paid medical malpractice claims in the ambulatory setting, with one in 20 patients experiencing potentially preventable diagnostic errors each year.

“For example, a patient who has a positive fecal blood test, but no follow-up colonoscopy within a reasonable period may experience a missed opportunity to detect and successfully treat colon cancer,” McDonald said.

McDonald and her team worked with San Francisco public health clinics that cater to low-income patients to investigate this key problem — missed diagnosis and prevention activities during outpatient care — then came up with design seeds to plant possible solutions.

She and her co-authors published their research in the journal Implementation Science. The project was conducted at the Ambulatory Safety Center for Innovation (ASCENT), a patient safety learning laboratory led by Dr. Urmimala Sarkar at University of California San Francisco, and funded by the federal Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

The team used a research design approach called “journey mapping,” a tool that tells the story of a customer’s experience through his own viewpoint. They constructed maps for each pathway used by doctors to monitor patients with sinister findings, starting with the initial diagnostic assessment during an initial clinic visit and continuing through ongoing follow-up visits.

“Whenever participants in the study verbalized elements of the pathway that were particularly vulnerable to error or poor monitoring, we marked the activity with a bullseye target, also referred to by clinicians as a ‘pain point,’” the authors wrote. “To our knowledge, this technique has seldom been applied to the ambulatory setting, and has not been targeted to clinic workflow efficiency or patient safety intervention development.”

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“A design seed gives the specs for what a solution needs to do,” said McDonald, who is the executive director of Stanford Health Policy’s Center for Health Policy and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research. “Once you know the vulnerabilities through journey mapping, you create all the design seeds that are tied to the problem, then the implementation stage becomes much more straightforward and more likely to assure that all the key goals are met.”

To test out this theory, McDonald’s team spent the last two years working with doctors, residents, nurse practitioners and registered nurses with the San Francisco Health Network. The publicly funded integrated health network operates under the auspices of the San Francisco Department of Public Health and includes 14 primary care clinics, as well as urgent and specialty care at Zuckerberg San Francisco General hospital.

“The health system serves many of the most medically and socially vulnerable patients in San Francisco,” the authors wrote in their research paper. “Like many safety-net systems and ambulatory practices, the health system does not have a comprehensive electronic health record system and struggles with information transfer as well as fragmentation of health information across over 50 electronic platforms.”

The health system had more than half a million outpatient visits last year by people who could not afford care. Patients at the network’s main clinics and hospital are diverse: 35 percent are Latino, 21 percent are white, another 21 percent are Asians, and 17 percent are African-American.

Only 1 percent of the network population has commercial insurance; 10 percent were uninsured; 57 percent were on Medi-Cal — California’s Medicaid program — 21 percent were on Medicare and the remaining 11 percent were covered by other, mostly public sources.

This type of ambulatory health care is complex, requiring constant tracking and reconciliation of individual patient activities, patient data, and the unique evolution of each clinical case.

"Human factors and industrial design methodologies have tremendous potential to help unravel these complexities and provide fundamental insights that can drive the development of novel solutions," said co-author George Su of the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine.

McDonald said that journey mapping helped frontline clinic members see their workflow for a specific task, which in this case was monitoring this diverse population for follow-up visits after a potentially sinister finding. The system challenge is population management of an ill-defined problem.

“Lots of ambulatory care work is done one patient interaction at a time, but robust monitoring requires a view from a higher plane,” she said in an interview. “Journey mapping makes the aerial view more tangible and realistic for clinic team input.”

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McDonald’s team selected high-risk cancer situations: incidentally discovered pulmonary nodules; monitoring for breast, colorectal and prostate cancers; and ear, nose and throat cancers. These high-risk cancers require recurring and timely follow-up care to assure intervention whenever the disease takes hold.

The team interviewed clinicians from each of five specialty clinics responsible for these high-risk patients in pulmonary medicine, breast cancer, gastroenterology, urology, and otolaryngology. They asked the frontline clinicians: “What keeps you up and night? And what are your clinical hunches about who might fall through the cracks?”

While the providers talked about the types of patients who become lost to follow-up visits, the researchers found, none of the clinics had a standardized and efficient method of quantifying how many patients were lost to follow-up care and, perhaps more importantly, why.

“Many other health networks share similar struggles with incomplete documentation and measuring the real-time scope of patient safety problems,” wrote McDonald and co-authors Sarkar, Su and Sarah Lisker of the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine; and Emily S. Patterson of Ohio State University College of Medicine.

“When a patient has a warning signal for a serious condition that has yet to materialize but may in the future, the ability of a clinical team to watch the patient closely over time hinges on incredible vigilance on the part of individual clinicians — hardly an ideal solution,” McDonald said.

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This is the crux of the problem, she said, and where so-called “design seeds” are planted.

“The design seeds lay the groundwork in a very specific fashion. Journey mapping and process tracing figure out the problem, in our case, vulnerabilities, and then the design seeds are the first-stage of the solution,” McDonald said. “It’s very user-focused, learning directly from those who are on the frontlines of the work, and making sure that the problem is specified in a way that allows for the developments of solutions that can scale more flexibly during implementation.”

The team identified 45 vulnerabilities within San Francisco’s publicly funded health clinics.

“Repeatedly, we heard that clinicians worry about properly tracking these patients, and are troubled by the significant personnel time required in carrying out patient-level monitoring activities without tools and organization approaches for population-level monitoring,” they wrote.

But even then, the team did not jump straight to solutions. That’s the next step.

The team will launch a pilot project to test possible solutions that will grow from the design seeds, such as whether new digital technology, workflow arrangements, and structured data collection could help find those patients lost in the cracks of an overloaded system.

“Such focused and potentially scalable work is particularly needed for patients who may be lost to follow-up in systems that are stretched for dollars and time,” the authors concluded. “Providers will often create informal workarounds in response to the lack of comprehensive and coordinated record-keeping systems, which can result in errors as well as redundant efforts.”

The ASCENT team is already implementing a monitoring solution informed by the journey mapping activities, in subspecialty care clinics at Zuckerberg San Francisco General, by testing technical and workflow models.

“We determined the need for a registry for high-risk patients in the otolaryngology clinic to help us monitor the entire process,” said Sarkar, a primary care physician and head of the ASCENT lab at UCSF. “This means the final diagnosis, workup and treatment planning, the actual treatment itself and then surveillance and follow-up.”

 

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Beth Duff-Brown
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Stanford Health Policy’s newest faculty member, Joshua Salomon, believes that one urgent need in global health research is to improve forecasts of the patterns and trends that are the major causes of death and disease.

Salomon, who is leaving leaving his position as professor of global health at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health to join Stanford on Aug. 1, works on modeling of infectious and chronic diseases and their associated intervention strategies, as well as methods for economic evaluation of public health programs and ways to measure the global burden of disease.

And he looks at the potential impact and cost effectiveness of new health technologies.

“Projections of future trends in health are crucial to formulating policy,” said Salomon, who has a PhD from Harvard. “To think strategically about the technologies and policies that would make the biggest impact on health over the next 20 to 50 years, we really need to start by understanding the range of likely trends in major health challenges over the coming decades.”

Stanford, he said, offers him a “rich collaborative environment” to better learn from advances in forecasting across a range of other disciplines, such as economics, political science, and environmental science.

“With a better picture of what the world is likely to look like over the next 50 years — and what are going to be the most pressing health problems — we can invest wisely and put ourselves in a position to respond more effectively.”

Salomon is also the director of the Prevention Policy Modeling Lab, which is funded by a five-year award from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The consortium represents the collaborative research of experts from Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston Medical Center, Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Yale School of Public Health, Brown University School of Public Health, and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and.

He will continue directing the lab from Stanford and intends to bring in new research threads from his colleagues here on the Farm. The lab works on a wide range of projects dealing with policy analysis for hepatitis, sexually transmitted infections and diseases such as HIV, and tuberculosis.

“It’s a rewarding grant for me to work on because, unlike a lot of modeling projects, the work that we do really starts from urgent public health questions that policymakers have,” he said. “All of the questions that we are working on are questions that originated directly from discussions with CDC and other public health partners.”

With Salomon’s move to Stanford, the university gains a dynamic duo.

Grace Lee joins Stanford as the Associate Chief Medical Officer at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital in the fall, 2017.

His wife, Grace Lee, MD, MPH, joins in the fall as the Associate Chief Medical Officer at Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital. As a professor of population medicine at Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute & Harvard Medical School, Lee has led research in vaccine safety in the FDA-funded Post-licensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring (PRISM) program and the CDC-funded Vaccine Safety Datalink, which monitors the safety of vaccines and studies rare and adverse reactions from immunizations.

She has also examined the impact of financial penalties on rates of healthcare-associated infections, as the principal investigator of an AHRQ-funded study, as well as developed novel surveillance definitions for ventilator-related events in neonates and children.

While at Stanford, Lee said, she intends “to find opportunities to enhance the learning health system approach to improve patient outcomes and population health.”

Salomon has spent his entire career as a collaborator on the Global Burden of Disease project, the world’s most comprehensive epidemiological study commissioned by the World Bank in 1990, which tracks mortality and morbidity from major diseases, injuries and risks factors.

“The study has made a major contribution to global public health because before this study we just didn’t have a comprehensive, systematic understanding of the things that cause death and disability in low- and middle-income countries. But now we do,” he said. “It’s hugely ambitious and very sweeping in scope — and a lot of my work is around providing the evidence we need to inform policy.”

Much of Salomon’s work is global in nature. He’s most recently focused on older adults in one rural South African community, which has a high prevalence of HIV and one of the world’s highest levels of hypertension. His research there aims to inform urgent prevention initiatives tailored to older adults where HIV and cardiovascular risks are moderate or high, as in similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa.

“People don’t expect a high level of ongoing HIV transmission in older adults,” he said. “The double burden that we find, with a very high level of HIV, as well as the high prevalence of diabetes and heart disease, creates enormous strains on the health-care system.”

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