Trade
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Flyer for the seminar "Asia-Pacific Energy Challenges and the Role of APEC," part of APARC fall 2023 series "Exploring APEC’s Role in Facilitating Regional Cooperation"
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This event is part of the series Exploring APEC’s Role in Facilitating Regional Cooperation.

Energy is essential for economic development, but energy use is a major contributor to global warming.  Most can agree that transition from fossil fuels to sustainable (green) energy is imperative for long-term sustainability, but how to make that transition while maintaining and increasing growth and prosperity is not self-evident.  This panel will examine energy challenges in general, how they play out and are perceived in the APEC region, and how APEC has attempted to find cooperative solutions.

Panelists:
 

Larry Goulder

Larry Goulder, Professor in Environmental and Resource Economics, Director of the Stanford Center for Environmental and Energy Policy Analysis, Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Precourt Institute for the Environment, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research; and a University Fellow of Resources of the Future

Lawrence H. Goulder is the Shuzo Nishihara Professor in Environmental and Resource Economics at Stanford University and Director of the Stanford Center for Environmental and Energy Policy Analysis. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Precourt Institute for the Environment, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research; and a University Fellow of Resources for the Future. Goulder's research covers a range of environmental issues, including green tax reform, the design of environmental tax systems and emissions trading policies, climate change policy, and comprehensive wealth measurement ("green" accounting). He has served on several advisory committees to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Science Advisory Board and the California Air Resources Board, and as co-editor of the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management and the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.

Larry Greenwood

Larry Greenwood, Chairman of the Board of the Japan Society of Northern California, Senior Adviser at BowerGroupAsia, US Ambassador to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group from 2000-2003

Larry Greenwood is Senior Adviser at BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Asia-Pacific.  He is also Chair of the Japan Society of Northern California after serving as its President from 2016-2020.  From 2011-2015, Larry was Senior Managing Director for Government Relations in Asia for MetLife based in Tokyo responsible for shaping insurance policies and regulations in Asia and from 2006-2011 was Vice President at the Asian Development Bank in Manila, Philippines where he oversaw ADB’s annual loan and grant operations of about $7 billion in East and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island countries. 

Larry was a career diplomat from 1976-2006 where he worked on economic issues in the State Department in Washington, DC and at US Embassies in Manila, Dakar, Singapore and twice in Tokyo.  He served as US Ambassador to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group and retired as Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Economic Bureau of the State Department where he was responsible for international financial and development matters. He holds a BA from Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida and an MALD from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Medford Massachusetts.  He speaks and reads Japanese and French.

Gita Wirjawan

Gita Wirjawan, Former Minister of Trade and former Chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia, Founder of Ancora Group and Ancora Foundation, Visiting Scholar at Shorenstein APARC

Gita Wirjawan is a visiting scholar at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University. He is the host of a Southeast Asia educational podcast called Endgame, a member of the Board of Governors of the Asia School of Business (MIT Sloan), a member of the international council of the Yale School of Management, and chairman of the Advisory Board of the School of Government and Public Policy (SGPP) Indonesia. While as chairman of Ancora Group, a business group based in Indonesia, he is also a partner at Ikhlas Capital, a Singapore-based Southeast Asia private equity fund. He is also an adviser to a number of Southeast Asia-based venture capital firms, including Alpha JWC Ventures, Monk's Hill Ventures, Jungle Ventures, and Intudo Ventures. He is also a member of the International Advisory Board of Chubb. Previously, he was trade minister and chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board of the Republic of Indonesia during the years 2009–2014, a banker at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citibank, and a public accountant. He received his MPA at Harvard University Kennedy School of Government, MBA at Baylor University, and BBA at the University of Texas, Austin.

Moderator:

Thomas Fingar

Thomas Fingar, Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, former U.S. Department of State Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis, Director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific, and Chief of the China Division, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis and, concurrently, as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Previous positions include Assistant Secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-2001 and 2004-2005), Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (2001-2003), and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Analysis (1994-2000). Dr. Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in Political Science).  Recent books include Reducing Uncertainty:  Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future (edited with Jean Oi, Stanford, 2020); and From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021).

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Thomas Fingar
Thomas Fingar
Larry Goulder, Larry Greenwood, Gita Wirjawan
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Asia-Pacific Digital Health Innovation
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This event is part of the series Exploring APEC’s Role in Facilitating Regional Cooperation.

Digital health technologies hold great promise to strengthen health systems in the Asia-Pacific region and provide affordable access for remote and vulnerable populations. But what is the evidence about how digital health initiatives work in practice in low resource settings? What incentive structures and provider skillsets are needed to improve health equity, health service quality, and health system resilience at an affordable cost? What is the role of APEC in promoting these innovations while also addressing concerns about data privacy and security? This colloquium explores these questions with case studies from South and Southeast Asia. Our three expert speakers discuss how APEC members are actively experimenting with “innovative digital health solutions to increase access to, and delivery of, health services,” as highlighted in the Chair's Statement of the 13th APEC High-Level Meeting on Health and the Economy. 

Panelists:

CK Cheruvettolil

CK Cheruvettolil, Senior Strategy Officer, Digital Health and Artificial Intelligence, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

CK Cheruvettolil is a Senior Strategy Officer on the Gates Foundation Artificial Intelligence Taskforce. He leads the deployment of AI solutions in Asia and works closely with governments, public health agencies and health service providers to identify and fund digital technologies that could have impact. CK has been at the Gates Foundation for 12 years in a variety of roles including financing and strategy for global vaccine development and disease surveillance. 
Prior to joining the Gates Foundation, CK spent 8-years as a consultant to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In this capacity, he played a crucial role in designing the technical framework for the Environmental Public Health Tracking Network.

Shri Kiran Gopal Vaska

Kiran Gopal Vaska, Director of the National Health Authority of India

Mr. Kiran Gopal Vaska is an officer of the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) currently working at the National Health Authority, New Delhi. In his earlier roles, he worked at various levels of government in the areas of power, rural development, health and family welfare, education, and industrial development, among others. As Managing Director of MP Eastern Zone Power Distribution Company, he led the digitization of the company including GIS mapping of the entire power network, introduction of smart meter technologies, and more. He led the development of an online single window system and was instrumental in Madhya Pradesh state ranking among the top 5 states in Ease of Doing Business (EoDB) in India for 2016. Before joining government service, he worked in the finance industry performing risk analytics for hedge funds and banks.

Moderator:

Siyan Yi

​​Dr. Siyan Yi, Assistant Professor and Director of Integrated Research Program at National University of Singapore; 2011-12 Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

Dr. Yi is a medical doctor and an infectious disease epidemiologist by training. He received his PhD from the School of International Health of the University of Tokyo in Japan in 2010. He was a postdoctoral fellow at the Asia Health Policy Program, Walter H. Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University from 2011-2012. He is an Assistant Professor and Director of the Integrated Research Program at Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore. He also serves as Director of KHANA Center for Population Health Research in Cambodia and Adjunct Associate Professor at Touro University California, the United States. His implementation research program focuses on developing and evaluating community-based innovative interventions for improving access to prevention, treatment, and care services for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, sexual and reproductive health, and maternal and child health among vulnerable and marginalized populations in Southeast Asia.

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Dr. Siyan Yi
CK Cheruvettolil, Kiran Gopal Vaska
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Flyer for Oct 6 seminar, "APEC's Role in the Evolving Asia-Pacific Order"
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*Registration for this event has closed. Secure your spot at the upcoming events in our fall series Exploring APEC’s Role in Facilitating Regional Cooperation.

Ever since its informal beginnings in late 1989, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum has been a central hub for economic engagement and cooperation around the Pacific Rim, both shaping and being shaped by developments in the region over an extraordinary period of trade and economic expansion.  As leaders from 21 APEC member economies prepare to meet in San Francisco in November, we will explore APEC's evolution over its three-decade-plus history to consider both its role and contributions in the Asia-Pacific region to date, as well as explore its challenges and relevance in the region going forward.  Is APEC still hitting its regional economic cooperation target and how might APEC better achieve its goals?

Speakers

Portrait of Aida Allias

Aida Safinaz Allias, Minister for Economic Affairs, Embassy of Malaysia to the United States; Former APEC Senior Official for Malaysia.

Ms. Aida Safinaz Allias currently serves as the Minister (Economic Affairs) at the Embassy of Malaysia in Washington, D.C. This is her second time in D.C., her first being during her intern days at the US-Asia Institute in DC circa the mid-90s.

She has served in the Malaysian Ministry of International Trade & Industry (MITI) for 23 years, since the year 2000, starting at the Industry Wing in various capacities including with the iron & steel, E&E, and investment units, before crossing over to the Trade Wing at the Multilateral Trade Policy and Negotiations Division. Subsequently, she was posted to the Permanent Mission of Malaysia to the WTO, Geneva, Switzerland as the Economic Counsellor in charge of Services trade negotiations from 2005-2007.

Following that, she returned to HQ and was posted at the FTA Coordination Division as the Principal Assistant Director (2007-2009). From 2011-2013, she gained her first experience in APEC work at the APEC Division in MITI as the Malaysian Lead at the Committee on Trade and Investment (CTI), during which she had the opportunity to serve as the Market Access Group (MAG) Convenor.

Pursuant to that she was again posted as Minister Counsellor (Economic Affairs) at the Malaysian High Commission in New Delhi from 2013-2016. Later, she returned to MITI HQ as Director of the Services Sector Development Division before she was tasked to lead the Substantive Unit of the APEC 2020 National Secretariat in 2018 when it was established for the Malaysian hosting of APEC 2020. Ms. Allias was then promoted to Senior Director of APEC Division in 2019 (also overseeing the APEC 2020 National Secretariat, which was incidental to the successful hosting of APEC 2020). From 2019 - 2021, she also served as the Malaysian APEC Senior Official. During the hosting of APEC 2020, she led the Malaysian Delegation to the successful drafting and conclusion of many important consensus documents at APEC, the most notable being the APEC Putrajaya Vision 2040.

She received a Bachelor of Arts (B.A) in International Relations from Syracuse University, New York. She also holds a Diploma in Public Administration from the Malaysian National Public Administration Institute (INTAN).

Kurt Tong

Amb. Kurt Tong, Managing Partner, The Asia Group; Former U.S. Ambassador for APEC; Former U.S. Consul General and Chief of Mission in Hong Kong and Macau.

Ambassador Kurt Tong is Managing Partner and member of the Executive Committee at The Asia Group, where he leads consulting teams focused on Japan, China, and Hong Kong, and on East Asia regional policy matters. He also leads the firm’s innovative thought leadership programs. A leading expert in diplomacy and economic affairs in East Asia, Ambassador Tong brings thirty years of experience in the Department of State as a career Foreign Service Officer and member of the Senior Foreign Service.

Moderator

michael_beeman_square

Michael Beeman, Former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea and APEC at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative; Visiting Scholar at Shorenstein APARC.

Michael Beeman is a Visiting Scholar during 2023 at Shorenstein APARC. Previously, he served as Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea, and APEC at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). In that role, he led the renegotiation of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement and the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, among other initiatives. After joining the U.S. government in 1998, he served in various other capacities for the Department of Commerce, for the U.S. Executive Director to the World Bank, and for USTR. He received his D.Phil. (Ph.D.) in Politics from the University of Oxford in 1998 and is the author of Public Policy and Economic Competition in Japan (Routledge, 2002).

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Michael Beeman
Michael Beeman
Aida Safinaz Allias
Amb. Kurt Tong
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Michael McFaul, director of Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and several other members of the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions will speak about and answer questions about the group's new white paper, "Action Plan 2.0 on Strengthening Sanctions against the Russian Federation." The event will begin with brief presentations from the following working group members, with additional commentary from other members afterwards: 
 

  • Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Stockholm Free World Forum
  • Andriy Boytsun, Founder and Editor of the Ukrainian SOE Weekly; Independent Corporate Governance Consultant; Former Member of the Strategic Advisory Group for Supporting Ukrainian Reforms
  • Benjamin Hilgenstock, Senior Economist, KSE Institute in Frankfurt, Germany
  • Dr. Craig Kennedy, Center Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University, and Former Vice Chairman, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
  • Oleksandr Novikov, Head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention
  • Nataliia Shapoval, Vice President for Policy Research, Kyiv School of Economics
     

Additional comments by:
 

  • James Hodson, Director and Chief Executive Officer of AI for Good; Researcher at the Jozef Stefan Institute Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in Slovenia
  • Dr. Benjamin Schmitt, Project Development Scientist at Harvard University; Senior Fellow for Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis; Rethinking Diplomacy Fellow at Duke University
  • Pavlo Verkhniatskyi, Managing Partner and Director at COSA
Michael A. McFaul
Michael McFaul

Via Zoom

Seminars
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Tools of the Trade: Shifting U.S. and Chinese Approaches to Trade Arrangements — A Conversation with Wendy Cutler and Gita Wirjawan
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The Asia-Pacific region has been a key driver of the globalization that has reshaped the world’s economic and political environment over the last decades.  Bi-lateral and multilateral trade arrangements, from GATT to WTO to TPP and RCEP, have been key components underpinning the rise in global trade that have propelled development of so many Asia-Pacific countries into middle-income countries and above.

However, generating enthusiasm in the United States and other wealthier nations for new trade deals and further economic opening has become more challenging.  By contrast, China has become increasingly active in proposing and developing bi-lateral and regional trade agreements with its neighbors.

Do these changes herald a new era for trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region? If so, how might future trade agreements be different?  How will global challenges like climate change, increasing nativism, digital services, and a changing political landscape affect and influence both the appetite for, and the shape of trade agreements in the region?  

Join Stanford’s China Program for a special conversation between Wendy Cutler, former diplomat and negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), and Gita Wirjawan, former Minister of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia, moderated by Laura Stone, US Department of State and the Inaugural China Policy Fellow at the Asia Pacific Research Center.

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Wendy Cutler, VP of Asia Society

Wendy Cutler  is Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) and the managing director of the Washington, D.C. office. In these roles, she focuses on leading initiatives that address challenges related to trade, investment, and innovation, as well as women’s empowerment in Asia. She joined ASPI following an illustrious career of nearly three decades as a diplomat and negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), where she also served as Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative. During her USTR career, she worked on a range of bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade negotiations and initiatives, including the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, U.S.-China negotiations, and the WTO Financial Services negotiations. She has published a series of ASPI papers on the Asian trade landscape and serves as a regular media commentator on trade and investment developments in Asia and the world. 

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Gita Wirjawan

Gita Wirjawan is an educator and host of the podcast “Endgame.” He is a visiting scholar at the Walter Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University. He is also the founder and chairman of Ancora Group, a partner of Ikhlas Capital, a Southeast Asia focus private equity fund, and advisor to a number of Southeast Asia based venture capital firms. Previously, he served as Minister of Trade and Chairman of Investment Coordinating Board in the Indonesian government from 2009-2014.

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Laura Stone

Laura Stone, a member of the US Department of State, is the Inaugural China Policy Fellow for the 2022-2023 academic year at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). She was formerly Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Maldives, the Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for China and Mongolia, the Director of the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs, and the Director of the Economic Policy Office in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs. She served in Hanoi, Beijing, Bangkok, Tokyo, the Public Affairs Bureau, the Pentagon Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. While at APARC, she is conducting research with the China Program on contemporary China affairs and U.S.-China policy.

 

Laura Stone, US Dept. of State

Oksenberg Room, Encina Hall Central, 3rd floor  
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Wendy Cutler (former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative)
Gita Wirjawan (Former Minister of Trade of Indonesia)
Panel Discussions
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April 14, 2023 event flyer with headshots of speakers Mr. Vinod Khosla and APARC China Policy Fellow Laura Stone
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This event is no longer accepting registrations. Thank you for your interest!

Prominent American tech player and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla warns that the United States and China currently face a “20-Year Tech War” —  a struggle shaped by each nation’s political systems and the role played by tech investors. What does he mean by these predictions? What could a “tech war” look like? And what are the implications for broader U.S.-China relations?

Join APARC’s China Program for a special Fireside Chat between Mr. Khosla and APARC’s China Policy Fellow Laura Stone. In this session, we will explore what Mr. Khosla sees happening in the U.S.-China tech space in the near- and long-term, the potential ramifications, what this means for how Chinese and U.S. technology firms operate outside their home markets, and the implications for technology and foreign policies.

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Vinod Khosla

Vinod Khosla is an entrepreneur, investor, and technology fan. Mr. Khosla was a co-founder of Daisy systems and founding CEO of Sun Microsystems.  He is the founder of Khosla Ventures, focused on impactful technology investments in software, AI, robotics, 3D printing, healthcare and more. One of Mr. Khosla’s greatest passions is mentoring entrepreneurs, helping them build technology-based businesses. Mr. Khosla is driven by the desire to make a positive impact through technology to reinvent societal infrastructure and multiply resources. He is also passionate about Social Entrepreneurship. Vinod holds a Bachelor of Technology in Electrical Engineering from IIT, New Delhi, a Master's in Biomedical Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

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Laura Stone

Laura Stone, a member of the US Department of State, is the Inaugural China Policy Fellow for the 2022-2023 academic year at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC).  She was formerly Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Maldives, the Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for China and Mongolia, the Director of the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs, and the Director of the Economic Policy Office in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs. She served in Beijing, Bangkok, Tokyo, the Public Affairs Bureau, the Pentagon Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. While at APARC, she is conducting research with the China Program on contemporary China affairs and U.S.-China policy.

 

All APARC events are scheduled on the Pacific Time Zone.

Laura Stone, US Dept. of State

G101, Stanford Graduate School of Business
655 Knight Way
Stanford, CA 94305

Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures
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This commentary originally appeared in Nikkei Asia.



An economic response toward China will be a leading agenda item for the Group of Seven major economies this year, Michael Beeman, who served as assistant U.S. trade representative for Japan, South Korea and APEC affairs until January, told Nikkei.

"It is important to agree on the most pressing issues, which will send a message to the rest of the world," said Beeman, now a visiting scholar at Stanford University. The U.S. is urging European nations and Japan to align with export restrictions of advanced semiconductors. "The G-7 is the best forum for discussion," said Beeman, who stressed member nations should work together to address export curbs and other measures.

Photo of Michael Beeman

Michael Beeman

Dr. Beeman is a Visiting Scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center for calendar year 2023 to research and write about trade policy issues such as economic security between the United States and Asia.
Full Bio

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Jean Oi at a lectern introducing the panelists of a session about U.S.-China decoupling in front of a  room packed with audience members.
News

Business Experts Unpack the Myths and Realities of Decoupling with China

In the second installment of a series recognizing the 40th anniversary of Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the China Program gathered cross-sector executives currently engaged in reshaping their China businesses to shine a light on what U.S.-China tensions and potential decoupling between the two powers look like on the ground.
Business Experts Unpack the Myths and Realities of Decoupling with China
Gi-Wook Shin, Amb. Jung-Seung Shin, and Oriana Skylar Mastro at the Winter Payne Lecture
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Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition

Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow, offered insights into the dynamics of the trilateral U.S.-China-South Korea relationship, the impacts of the great power competition between the United States and China on South Korea, and the prospects for enhanced Korea-U.S. collaboration.
Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition
YOSHIKI and Ichiro Fujisaki at The Future of Social Tech conference.
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Japanese and American Innovators Gather at Stanford to Examine the Future of Social Tech

Kicking off a special event series celebrating the 40th anniversary of Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the Japan Program convened eminent entrepreneurs, investors, educators, and content creators, including global rock star YOSHIKI, to explore pathways for social impact innovation.
Japanese and American Innovators Gather at Stanford to Examine the Future of Social Tech
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Michael Beeman sees the group discussing trade sanctions that align with the U.S.

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Noa Ronkin
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Amid escalating tensions between the United States and China and as the U.S. government is exploring how to further limit China's access to U.S. technology, discussions about the possibility of decoupling between the two countries have intensified. As businesses operating in China grapple with the potential consequences of decoupling, APARC’s China Program hosted a panel of executives across industries from tech, retail, and finance currently engaged in reshaping their China businesses to provide a view from the ground and consider the future of decoupling with China.

The event was the second installment in a special series celebrating APARC’s 40th anniversary. Titled Asia in 2030, APARC@40, the series highlights core areas of the center’s expertise, examines Asia’s transformation over the past four decades, and considers the drivers and shapers of the region’s future.

The panel featured Dan Brody, the managing director of Tencent Investments, who is responsible for the company’s overseas investments; Frits Van Paasschen, a change management expert, former CEO of Starwood Hotels and Resorts, and former president of EMEA at Nike; and Stuart Schonberger, a founding partner of CDH Investments, one of the leading China-focused alternative asset managers. China Program Director Jean Oi chaired the panel.


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There is a need for cognitive empathy between the United States and China and understanding the motivation behind China's actions.
Stuart Schonberger

Risks and Opportunities

Van Paasschen described his extensive experience developing strategies for expanding licensing and retail in China, which involved navigating the country's infrastructure and legal framework and, as CEO of Starwood Hotels, overseeing the construction of over 100 hotels. He ascribed his success in the country to his recognition of China’s strengths and weaknesses and his finding ways to interact positively with Chinese stakeholders.

The term decoupling is an oversimplification of the relationship between the complex Chinese and U.S. economies, said Van Paasschen. He noted that retailers in many cases are looking to sources from alternative markets to China, but that he believes there are still opportunities for investment in and co-development with China that remain unaffected by current frictions. He highlighted in this context the interplay between the U.S. and Chinese travel and tourism industries before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Schonberger, who also challenged the notion of decoupling as a misleading shorthand, emphasized the need for cognitive empathy between the world’s two great powers and understanding the motivation behind China's actions. He noted that the challenges facing China today are complex, including debt problems, real estate slowdown, and productivity stagnation, but said these are "known knowns" that the Chinese government is actively working to correct.

Schonberger sees two distinct issues facing institutional equity investors worried about China: government policies that negatively affect growth and corporate prospects, and longer-term risks arising from China's geopolitical position. For private investors who are focused on total return and can tolerate overt political pressures, China remains investable, as Chinese stocks have been some of the best performers on the public markets recently, said Schonberger. The challenges are greater, however, for public entities and bond investors who are more affected by political risk in their decisions. While the risks are higher, Schonberger's firm continues to invest in Chinese companies in multiple sectors.

By decoupling with China, the United States would miss out on a generational opportunity for development.
Frits Van Paasschen

Changes Underway

Brody said that China remains a key player in the global economy. As a personal anecdote, he noted that, while he makes fewer trips to the United States, he is traveling more frequently to Europe, India, Japan, and Southeast Asia. According to Brody, the extent to which the Chinese economy would be affected by international fluctuations is unclear, but he expects the country to continue its economic growth and attract foreign investors. He stated that a huge amount of value in the tech sector is still being created in America, so economically driven foreign investors in the tech sector still pay close attention to developments in Silicon Valley.

Van Paasschen, by contrast, pointed out that by decoupling with China, the United States would miss out on a generational opportunity for development and could potentially lose out to other countries. China still presents an enormous opportunity for businesses, he said, particularly in the hotel industry, given the country’s rate of urbanization. He reminded the audience that every country and region presents its own set of challenges and risks for investors. The imperative is to ensure Beijing and Washington maintain a dialogue and businesses are willing to take risks to invest in China.

Van Paasschen went on to describe how the U.S.-China political tensions are affecting business operations in various sectors. For instance, in the biotechnology sector, companies might consider protecting intellectual property and ensuring sustainability in their supply chain. In the apparel business, there is a growing concern about human rights and the opacity of the cotton supply chain. Overall, Van Paasschen sees a transition underway from a bilateral and straightforward approach to trade to a much more nuanced and complicated approach.

When asked if political tensions would affect some sectors more than others, Van Paasschen responded affirmatively. He gave the example of a sovereign wealth fund that refused to support investments in Chinese hotels because of the uncertainty zero-COVID policies had created. He also said that further uncertainty could arise from countries' reactions to China’s foreign policy stance, such as China's support of Russia in Ukraine.

Whatever your political position as an American is on China, you would want more people-to-people ties, which have always been a net positive.
Dan Brody

What advice would the three business experts give Washington?

Van Paasschen expressed his hope the United States finds ways to avoid being reactive. Schonberger, urging policymakers to keep working towards peaceful coexistence, emphasized it would be counter-productive to frame China as an enemy. He also highlighted the importance of redundancy and efficiency in trade relationships and cautioned against overlooking the cost of decoupling, reminding the audience that engagement with China has boosted global trade, lifted millions out of poverty, and created a vibrant society.

From Brody’s perspective, predictability is crucial for business, regardless of the country one is conducting business in. He also stressed that, from a personal perspective and regardless of one’s political stance on China, the reduction in people-to-people ties between China and the United States due to recent travel restrictions is unfortunate. Ultimately, these ties have always been a net positive, and it is important to recognize their value even in the midst of tensions between the two nations. While political leaders may grapple with complex geopolitical issues, the connections between ordinary citizens remain a vital foundation for maintaining a constructive relationship. By fostering personal exchanges, the United States and China can build bridges and promote mutual understanding, even in the face of challenging circumstances.

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Gi-Wook Shin, Amb. Jung-Seung Shin, and Oriana Skylar Mastro at the Winter Payne Lecture
News

Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition

Ambassador Jung-Seung Shin, the Winter 2023 Payne Distinguished Fellow, offered insights into the dynamics of the trilateral U.S.-China-South Korea relationship, the impacts of the great power competition between the United States and China on South Korea, and the prospects for enhanced Korea-U.S. collaboration.
Payne Distinguished Fellow Examines South Korea’s Strategic Path Amid U.S.-China Competition
U.S. and Japanese forces conduct a maritime partnership exercise in the South China Sea.
Commentary

Japan Must Do More, and Faster, to Avert War Over Taiwan

Tokyo must make clear at home and abroad that defending Taiwan is no longer off the table.
Japan Must Do More, and Faster, to Avert War Over Taiwan
YOSHIKI and Ichiro Fujisaki at The Future of Social Tech conference.
News

Japanese and American Innovators Gather at Stanford to Examine the Future of Social Tech

Kicking off a special event series celebrating the 40th anniversary of Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the Japan Program convened eminent entrepreneurs, investors, educators, and content creators, including global rock star YOSHIKI, to explore pathways for social impact innovation.
Japanese and American Innovators Gather at Stanford to Examine the Future of Social Tech
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In the second installment of a series recognizing the 40th anniversary of Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the China Program gathered cross-sector executives currently engaged in reshaping their China businesses to shine a light on what U.S.-China tensions and potential decoupling between the two powers look like on the ground.

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2023-24
Michael Beeman_0.jpg
PhD

Dr. Beeman was a Visiting Scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) from 2023 to 2024. He researched and wrote about trade policy issues such as economic security between the United States and Asia. He also taught international policy as a lecturer with the Ford Dorsey Masters in International Policy program. 

From January 2017 until January 2023, he was Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea and APEC at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). In that role, he led the renegotiation of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement and the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, among other initiatives. Prior to this, he served in other capacities at USTR and, between 1998 and 2004, at the U.S. Department of Commerce.  He received his D.Phil. (Ph.D.) in Politics from the University of Oxford in 1998 and an M.A. in International Relations from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in 1991.  He is the author of Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond (Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, 2024) and Public Policy and Economic Competition in Japan (Routledge, 2003). 

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The event will be webcast live from this page.


In this event on December 9 at 7 a.m. PT / 10 a.m. ET, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics present their latest Big Data China publication. The feature “Have U.S.-China Tensions Hurt American Innovation?” highlights the work of professors Ruixue Jia and Molly Roberts (University of California San Diego) and investigates the effects of U.S. policies toward China on academic collaboration between the two countries.

Trustee Chair Senior Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco will host the event, which will include an introduction by Professor Scott Rozelle of Stanford University. Professors Molly Roberts and Ruixue Jia of UC San Diego will discuss their research on the topic, followed by a discussion on the implications for U.S.-China relations and U.S. policy with distinguished panelists James Mulvenon of Peraton Labs, Deborah Seligsohn of Villanova University, and Abigail Coplin of Vassar College.  

FEATURING

Scott Rozelle 
Co-director at Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Molly Roberts 
Associate Professor of Political Science, UC San Diego
Ruixue Jia 
Associate Professor of Economics, 
UC San Diego
Abigail Coplin 
Assistant Professor of Sociology and Science, Technology and Society, 
Vassar College
James Mulvenon 
Scientific Research and Analysis, Peraton Labs
Ilaria Mazzocco 
Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Deborah Seligsohn 
Senior Associate (Non-resident), Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
 
  

EVENT PARTNERS
 

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SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Abigail Coplin
Ruixue Jia
Ilaria Mazzocco
James Mulvenon
Molly Roberts
Scott Rozelle
Deborah Seligsohn
Panel Discussions
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