Political Signaling in an Uncertain World: Brandon Yoder’s Empirical Lens on Chinese Foreign Policy
Political Signaling in an Uncertain World: Brandon Yoder’s Empirical Lens on Chinese Foreign Policy
Brandon Yoder, APARC’s 2024–25 Stanford Next Asia Policy Fellow, focuses on a central challenge in international politics: how states can credibly signal their intentions and avoid war. His work investigates this question in high-stakes contexts, such as during power shifts, amid strategic uncertainty, and in multi-actor settings where traditional signaling models often fall short.
China’s rise as a global power has ushered in a period of strategic flux marked by renewed great power competition, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. As China's economic and military capabilities have grown, so too have concerns about its long-term intentions, raising the stakes for states attempting to interpret and respond to its foreign policy behavior. In this volatile environment, the ability of states to credibly signal peaceful or aggressive intentions has become a central concern for policymakers and scholars alike. Misunderstandings can escalate into costly miscalculations, especially amid shifting power dynamics, unstable preferences, and growing competition for influence.
Understanding states’ signaling behavior is the research focus of Brandon Yoder, a 2024–25 Stanford Next Asia Policy Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Yoder is a senior lecturer at the Australian National University’s School of Politics and International Relations and the Australian Centre on China in the World. He is also a non-resident research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Centre on Asia and Globalisation.
While at APARC, Yoder is working with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) on projects as part of its research track on shared and varying perceptions in U.S. relations with regional actors in Asia. His research investigates how states communicate their intentions under uncertainty and how these signaling processes shape the prospects for peace or conflict. Combining formal modeling with historical and empirical analysis, Yoder seeks to illuminate how credibility is constructed, interpreted, and contested in strategic interaction, focusing on Chinese foreign policy and U.S.-China dynamics.
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When Theory Meets Practice: Modeling Signaling and Testing It Empirically
Much of Yoder’s research aims to bridge the gap between abstract theory and pressing policy questions. One focus is the ongoing evolution of great power competition and how China's behavior can be better understood through the lens of signaling theory. Yoder applies theoretical findings to Chinese foreign policy to examine “how China can credibly signal its intentions and how others can figure out China's intentions, with an eye toward managing great power competition.”
Yoder’s academic journey began with a long-standing curiosity about China. “I always had an interest in China dating back to high school. It was obviously important but not covered much, so I was curious about it,” he reflects. After college, a few years spent teaching English in China deepened that curiosity and helped build the language skills that would become instrumental in his research. Graduate school provided the theoretical structure for his inquiry, and the challenges of understanding credibility in international politics led him to formal modeling. “In grad school, I became interested in how China could credibly signal its intentions, which led me to game theory,” he recalls. “I essentially taught myself the method over a long period of trial and (tons of) error.”
Now, his work weaves together a rigorous theoretical approach to general questions with applications to specific, policy-relevant problems in U.S.-China relations. Despite the appeal of elegant theoretical models, the empirical realities of signaling are anything but simple. Yoder identifies three key challenges in studying the phenomenon.
“One is that you have to formalize your theories, or else you can't possibly keep straight the complexities of rational belief formation mechanisms,” he explains. This realization led him toward game theory.
A second issue is the gap between rationalist models and human behavior. “Actors are not fully rational in their beliefs, so real-world signaling deviates systematically from rationalist predictions. These psychological and rational mechanisms interact in complex ways,” he adds, noting that some of his work tries to integrate both perspectives.
The third challenge lies in measurement. “Beliefs are hard to measure, which makes empirical work very difficult. You can't just use a large-N dataset,” he explains. In response, his empirical approach blends historical case studies with experiments to evaluate how signaling works in specific instances and at the population level.
At SNAPL, Yoder has continued developing several key projects. One model examines how alliance politics are shaped by fears of abandonment or entrapment, concerns that can inhibit alliance formation altogether. Another investigates how rising powers, facing multiple international audiences, can credibly signal peaceful intentions through diplomatic statements, offering insight into the triangular dynamics between the United States, China, and Russia since World War II.
Yoder’s recent work broadens his empirical scope. One survey experiment explores how Australian national identity shapes public attitudes toward China. Another paper argues that war between the United States and China over Taiwan may be less likely than often assumed. A third project develops a model of how smaller Asian states can help moderate U.S.-China competition by avoiding firm alignment with either power. Across these diverse topics, the through line remains the same: understanding how intentions are communicated or miscommunicated between states.
Academic Community and Next Steps
Yoder describes his time at APARC as both intellectually stimulating and refreshingly collaborative. “Mostly just being around really good people, having engaging discussions, and getting feedback” has been a major boost to his research, he says. Conversations with scholars like Jim Fearon and Ken Schultz have sharpened his theoretical thinking, while connections with Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro have deepened his understanding of cross-strait dynamics. He’s also enjoyed working closely with fellow SNAPL postdocs and visiting scholars, and credits their informal discussions as particularly energizing.
SNAPL, directed by Professor Gi-Wook Shin, is an interdisciplinary research initiative housed within APARC addressing pressing social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia through comparative, policy-relevant studies. The lab cultivates the next generation of researchers and policy leaders by offering mentorships and fellowship opportunities for students and emerging scholars. These include two-year postdoctoral fellowships and one-year visiting fellowships, including for scholars from the Asia-Pacific region. Fellows collaborate with Stanford faculty, students, and other researchers to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, and policy-relevant publications. The lab also offers research assistantships and a research workshop to foster academic exchange and mentorship.
Yoder has been pleasantly surprised by the vibrancy of the intellectual community at APARC and FSI. “There are so many fantastic talks and events, it’s legitimately difficult to go to everything I want to,” he notes. The intersection of APARC, the Political Science Department, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) has created what he describes as a deeply interdisciplinary space, one that encourages both breadth and depth in academic inquiry and policy-relevant discussion.
Reflecting on academia, Yoder offers unflinching but thoughtful advice to early-career scholars. “It’s gonna get rough out there; hedge your bets,” he says. Success, in his view, depends on three things: genuine passion, persistence, and luck. “Plenty of talented, hard-working people don't get the breaks they need and their careers flounder,” he explains. For this reason, he encourages young scholars to pursue work they truly enjoy rather than trying to reverse-engineer success. “The process is the payoff, or it’s not worth doing. But be ready to shift to a different career path if it doesn’t work out.”
As he prepares to return to his position at the Australian National University in July, Yoder is eager to continue his work on signaling, great power politics, and Chinese foreign relations. A book project is a possibility, but not a priority — at least not yet. “I keep thinking of too many new articles I want to write,” he says, “so I’d rather do new stuff than expand my old stuff into a book.”
Through rigorous modeling, empirical grounding, and a deep engagement with contemporary strategic challenges, Brandon Yoder’s work offers essential insights into how states interpret signals, manage risks, and shape the evolving landscape of global power.
