Autocrats frequently use legal repression, such as criminalization, to suppress dissent, targeting both domestic and exiled organizations. We examine criminalization effects on exiled organizations using an original survey with an embedded conjoint experiment, conducted with 5,996 Russian emigrants across 89 countries who left after the 2022 Ukraine invasion. We explore how criminalization, donation anonymity, and organizational transparency affect emigrants’ willingness to cooperate with these organizations. Our results reveal that criminalization backfires, as exiles view it as an indicator of political authenticity and efficacy, fostering solidarity and coordination among the diaspora. As an unintended consequence, criminalization facilitates collective action and coordination of extraterritorial opposition. Geopolitics matters—cooperation with criminalized organizations is lower in host countries allied with the autocrat. Technologies enabling anonymous donations and accountability significantly boost cooperation. This study highlights the limitations of autocratic transnational control and suggests strategies for exile organizations to strengthen diaspora engagement and foster collective action. (In collaboration with Emil Kamalov)

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Ivetta Sergeeva is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford University, based at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. She holds a PhD in Social and Political Sciences from the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. She co-founded and co-led OutRush, a panel survey of Russian political migrants, initiated as both a personal and professional reaction to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Her research focuses on authoritarianism, civil society, and emigration, employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates surveys, experiments, and interviews. Beyond research, she has eight years of experience as a project coordinator in civil society and human rights initiatives, navigating the challenging environment of contemporary Russia.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to the William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.