To suppress dissent, autocrats often criminalize opposition organizations both domestically and in exile. While such measures may weaken support for these organizations domestically, they can gain increased backing from migrant communities. This study explores whether autocrats achieve their intended outcomes by legally repressing exile organizations through criminalization. Using a conjoint experiment, we examine how attributes like criminalization, anonymous donations, mission, and accountability affect donation decisions among 5,996 Russian exiles who fled after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This analysis is enriched with open-ended responses from participants.Our findings reveal some unintended consequences for the autocrat: Russian exiles are ready to support organizations branded as criminal by Russian authorities, because criminalization indicates organizations' political authenticity and effectiveness. However, exile organizations still must work to attract supporters who face high perceived risks, particularly migrants in countries tied to Russia. Technological advancements, such as anonymous donations, significantly enhance support, especially for organizations directly involved in homeland politics. Transparency is also key, especially if exile organizations want to attract the most politically engaged migrants. This study provides insights into how exile organizations can build resilient diaspora that relies on internal donors, even under growing pressure from autocratic homelands.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Ivetta Sergeeva is a Postdoctoral Fellow at CDDRL, Stanford University. She earned a PhD in Social and Political Sciences from the European University Institute. Her research focuses on authoritarianism, civil society, and emigration, employing a mixed-methods approach that includes surveys, experiments, and interviews. In addition to her academic expertise, she has eight years of experience coordinating civil society and human rights projects in the challenging context of contemporary Russia. In collaboration with Emil Kamalov, she co-founded and co-leads OutRush, a panel survey of Russian political migrants launched in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. She is also a co-principal investigator for the DemEx project, funded by NSF. Her work has been featured in major outlets, including Bloomberg, Financial Times, Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, BBC, CNBC, and Fortune.

In collaboration with Emil Kamalov, she co-founded and co-leads two research projects:

1. OutRush: A panel survey of Russian emigrants, initiated as both a personal and professional response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since March 2022, more than 10,000 Russian emigrants, now located in more than a hundred countries, have participated in the survey. The project has garnered substantial international media coverage and has drawn the attention of policymakers and experts.
2. Violence Monitor: A national survey on intimate partner violence in Russia that integrates UN methodology with experimental techniques.
    

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