America Votes 2024: Part 4

America Votes 2024: Part 4

Tuesday, November 12, 2024
10:00 AM - 11:30 AM
(Pacific)

Online via Zoom: Open to the public

Speaker: 
  • David Brady,
  • Douglas Rivers,
  • Daron Shaw,
  • Lynn Vavreck
Moderator: 
  • Brandice Canes-Wrone
America Votes 2024: Stanford Scholars on the Election's Most Critical Questions

The 2024 presidential and congressional elections are a pivotal moment for American democracy. Their outcomes will shape policy directions, test democratic institutions, influence Supreme Court appointments, and determine legislative power, impacting both domestic and global affairs.

This is the fourth in a series of four panel discussions in which Stanford’s leading social scientists will draw on their cutting-edge research to examine the multifaceted issues at play in this especially consequential election. We will explore the historical context of the presidential elections, the sources and degree of social polarization, the role of race and socio-economic status in voting, public opinion, vote and voter manipulation, electoral integrity, and the comparative dimensions of the elections in the United States.

POLLING: WHAT IS ON THE MINDS OF AMERICANS?

Attempts to understand what is in the hearts and minds of American voters has become increasingly difficult, and recent polls leading up to elections have often turned conventional wisdom on its head. This session will explore some innovative polling practices and what we learned from political polls during the 2024 elections, including from one of the largest national panel surveys that started in December 2023. Panelists will discuss what was on the minds of Americans as they entered the voting booth this fall, and the strengths and limitations of our attempts to understand voters through polling.

PANELISTS:

  • David Brady, Bowen H. & Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values, Emeritus; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at SIEPR
  • Douglas Rivers, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
  • Daron Shaw, University Distinguished Teaching Professor & Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Chair of State Politics, University of Texas at Austin
  • Lynn Vavreck, Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy, University of California Los Angeles


Co-sponsored and co-organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, at the Hoover Institution; and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.

CDDRL, RAI, and IRiSS logos

About the Speakers

David Brady

David Brady

Bowen H. & Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values, Emeritus; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at SIEPR
full bio

David Brady is the Davies Family Senior Fellow, Emeritus at the Hoover Institution, and the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science in the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

He has published seven books and more than a hundred papers in journals and books.  Among his most recent books are Leadership and Growth (World Bank Publications, 2010) with Michael Spence, Revolving Gridlock: Politics and Policy from Carter to Bush II (Westview Press, 2006), and Red and Blue Nation? Characteristics and Causes of America’s Polarized Politics with Pietro Nivola (Brookings Institution Press, 2007).  His recent articles include “Why Is Health Care Reform So Difficult?” with Daniel Kessler, Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, April 2010; “Putting the Public’s Money Where Its Mouth Is”  with Daniel Kessler, Health Affairs: The Policy Journal of the Health Sphere, August 2009, pages 917–25; “Leadership and Politics: A Perspective from the Growth Commission,” with Michael Spence, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 25, no. 2 (2009): 205–18; “The 2010 Elections: Why Did Political Science Forecasts Go Awry?” with Morris P. Fiorina and Arjun Wilkins, 2011.

Brady has been on continual appointment at Stanford University since 1986, where he has served as associate dean for Academic Affairs in the Graduate School of Business (GSB) and as vice provost for Distance Learning.  He has twice been a fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1987.  He presently holds the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professorship in Ethics at the Business School and was deputy director of the Hoover Institution from 2004-2014.

During his teaching career, he won the Dinkelspiel Award for service to undergraduates, the Richard Lyman Prize for service to alumni, the Bob Davies Award and the Jaedicke Silver Cup from the GSB, and the first Phi Beta Kappa Teaching Award given at Stanford.  He also won the George Brown Teaching Award at Rice University.

Douglas Rivers

Douglas Rivers

Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
full bio

Douglas Rivers is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor of political science at Stanford University. He is also the Chief Scientist at YouGov PLC, a global polling firm

Daron Shaw

Jonathan Rodden

Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
full bio

Daron Shaw earned his Ph.D. from the University of California, Los Angeles. Prior to accepting a position at the University of Texas in the fall of 1994, he worked in several political campaigns as a survey research analyst. Professor Shaw also served as a strategist in the 2000 and 2004 presidential election campaigns. His research and teaching interests include American Government, Campaigns and Elections, Political Parties, Public Opinion and Voting Behavior, and Applied Survey Research. He is co-director of the Fox News Poll, co-director of the University of Texas Poll, director of the Texas Lyceum Poll, and associate Principle Investigator for the 2020 and 2024 American National Election Studies. Professor Shaw is also a member of the national decision team for Fox News, and serves on the advisory boards for the MIT Election Data & Science Lab, the Annette Strauss Institute, and the Ulysses S. Grant Institute. Formerly, he served as President George W. Bush’s representative on the National Historical Publications and Records Commission and as one of the academic directors for President Barack Obama’s Commission for Election Administration.

Professor Shaw’s most recent book is Battleground: Electoral College Strategies, Execution and Impact in the Modern Era (Oxford University Press, co-authored with Scott Althaus and Costas Panagopoulos). He has also written The Appearance of Corruption (co-authored with Brian Roberts), The Turnout Myth (co-authored with John Petrocik), Unconventional Wisdom: Facts and Myths about American Voters (co-authored with Karen Kaufmann and John Petrocik) and The Race to 270. In addition, Professor Shaw has published articles in the leading journals in the discipline, including American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Public Opinion Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, Political Behavior, Political Communication, Political Geography, PS: Political Science, Party Politics, Presidential Studies Quarterly, and American Politics Research.

Lynn Vavreck

Lynn Vavreck

Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy, University of California Los Angeles
full bio

Lynn Vavreck is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, a contributing columnist to The Upshot at The New York Times, and a recipient of the Andrew F. Carnegie Prize in the Humanities and Social Sciences.  She is the author of five books, including the “most ominous” book on the 2016 election: Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, and The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election, described as the “definitive account” of the 2012 election. Political consultants on both sides of the aisle refer to her work on political messaging in The Message Matters as “required reading” for presidential candidates. Her research has been supported by the National Science Foundation and she has served on the advisory boards of both the British and American National Election Studies. At UCLA she teaches courses on campaigns, elections, public opinion, and the 1960s. Professor Vavreck holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Rochester and held previous appointments at Princeton University, Dartmouth College, and The White House.  A native of Cleveland, Ohio, she remains a loyal Browns fan and is a “known equestrian” – to draw on a phrase from the 2012 presidential campaign.